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Spacekiwi
Posts: 2634
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Your predictions on whats going to happen over the following week or two? what do you think is going to happen? how much of a bluff is it?
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![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ its not paranoia if its justified... ![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
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Daryl
Posts: 3607
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I think that it has to be a complete bluff. Even a stupid young born to rule surrounded by yes men has to realize that it would be dumb. Mind you one of the state newspapers recently said that he was so perfect that he didn't defecate.
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KNick
Posts: 2142
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He was raised without a clue, so someone had better hit him with a clue stick. That someone has to be China. If China does not shut him down and he heads south, all hell will follow. It is possible we will see the third use of a nuclear weapon for war.
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Try to take a fisherman's fish and you will be tomorrows bait!!! |
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viciokie
Posts: 546
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I hope he realizes that as soon as he uses a tac nuke he will be blitzed. China in particular will not tolerate him doing something like that and any rockets he sends south will be shot down. Likewise any of his planes that is capable of carrying a tac will be shot down as soon as they cross the border. |
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Spacekiwi
Posts: 2634
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My local newspapers made a point that every time something similar had happened, there was an armed incident between the north and south shortly after, for example in 2009.
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![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ its not paranoia if its justified... ![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
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7thsealord
Posts: 213
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Bluff, definitely. For quite a while, especially during the Cold War, NK often got its way just by being loud and acting crazy. That simply isn't working any more - China is very arguably the only "friend" left and, from all accounts, even they are just sick'n'tired of NK posturing. ... To say nothing of the increasing NK refugee problem that China has, which would get far far worse if NK totally collapsed (culturally / historically, Chinese and Koreans have never much liked each other). Whether or not NK actually has (reliable) nukes is questionable. If so, I believe they are a l-o-n-g way from building nuclear warheads for missiles. However, things are bad enough that (IMO) the NK regime could go full Bond-Villain crazy out of sheer desperation. NK has a lot of minisubs, so how about loading a nuke into one of them, and then doing a Kamikaze strike on a SK or US target? I rank something like this as unlikely, but honestly cannot discount it completely. Possibly the Best Case Scenario would be a Chinese-backed regime change there. NK continues to exist, just with closer ties to Beijing, and starts moving towards the Chinese economic model. Which would be better than what NK has now, whatever else one may think. Probably not happening this week or next week, though. I don't see Korean reunification happening anytime soon - the financial and social costs would so immense as to make Germany's reunification look like a warm-up act, and certainly SK politicos realize this as well. *
---------------------------------------------------- “I want my epitaph to be ‘Doggone If He Wasn’t Trying His Best’.” “I want mine to be ‘We Buried What Pieces We Could Find’.” Wondermark |
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viciokie
Posts: 546
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As far as the regime change that wont happen until china sends its wet department attitude adjusters in and take some attitudes out and change a few mindsets. Reunification, seriously i doubt if ever until the cult type leadership is long gone. |
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thinkstoomuch
Posts: 2729
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Figured to see more posts based on this story.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21979127 Quote North Korea has said it is entering a "state of war" with South Korea in the latest escalation of rhetoric against its neighbour and the US. End Quote I don't have an opinion (strange state for me) other than there doesn't seem to be a good solution to any of it. Not even sure how to quantify the less than good outcomes. T2M -----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?” A: “No. That’s just the price. ... Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games" |
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Spacekiwi
Posts: 2634
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The local papers noted that apparently they have done this once or twice before, with the declaration of hositilites being resumed. it did note that they started fighting again after each time, however they werent full on conflicts as much as one to two small battles followed by negotiations. grain of salt needed as to the following conclusion drawn by the journo that they were only doing it for concessions though. they have a new leader, better nuke tech, new military heads, and a worse blockade on them since last time. we shall see in the coming weeks...... `
![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ its not paranoia if its justified... ![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
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Tenshinai
Posts: 2893
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Went to school in Switzerland, so unlikely he´s completely clueless. |
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