cthia wrote:tlb wrote:Retribution is not a deterrence to war, but it is a deterrence to the wholesale breaking of the rules of war. It is normally only when asymmetric warfare lapses into terrorism that the rules are set aside.
Retribution is not a deterrence to war. And war is not an excuse for civility. There is no such thing as a "civil" war.
"If we lose the war, what more can you do to us that will exceed the reasons we are already "prepared to die for."
Jonathan_S wrote:Agreed that retribution, or fear of retribution, rarely seems to prevent wars.
But it does seem to be far more effective at preventing specific possible methods of waging those wars.
Prisoners are expensive in terms of money, supplies, guards, and a risk that they might cause issues if they escape. Yet most of the time in most wars prisoners are taken and usually not later killed arbitrarily. And that's in part because if you kill your prisoners then your enemy is likely to start retaliating by killing your captured troops. (Though also, if soldiers know that being prisoner isn't signing up for torture and death they'll be more likely actually surrender rather than always fighting to the death - and its beneficial to your army if the opponent isn't determined to fight intelligently to the death rather than surrendering. You end up taking far longer to advance while taking more casualties)
But also in theory it might be effective to sneak undercover forces far behind enemy lines (possibly through a neutral 3rd country) to target the families of soldiers or officers. It wouldn't take very many of those to cause major disruptions. But if you adopt that tactic then it might be your family that suffers when your enemy responds in kind.
Again, I'm not disagreeing. I'm simply saying you cannot marry yourself to certainty by banking on it. You can never underestimate your enemy's desperation, thus resolve. It is the very reason why Home Fleet has to go out and meet an advancing enemy. You can never know the flavor of their sanity, or lack thereof.
Threatening the family doesn't cut it either. Even so-called "decent" navies who are supposedly reared with morals, scruples and values consistently commit atrocities against the enemy's families in the form of brutal rapes and murder. You can't threaten someone with something that will likely occur anyway. Especially if there is something (cause to go to war) happening that is even worse.
You can not be so arrogant to think you can measure the weight of someone else's CAUSE to fight. The US makes that mistake time and time again. Especially when that CAUSE is rooted in religion.
OTOH, retribution may deter common criminals. AKA, the death penalty. But navies cannot be categorized as common criminals. Even though oftentimes they are.