Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists

Jonathan_S wrote:It seems to me that the reason Chin was reluctant to leave is that it would essentially be abandoning Tourville to his destruction. If she hypers out, unless she make a microjump towards Honor, it'll be close to an hour before she can get her forces back into the fight. By that point 8th fleet can combine with the remains of 3rd and collectively crush Tourville's battered survivors.

Then 3rd and 8th can move far enough inside the hyper limit to avoid being jumped at close range, so if Chin does come back they can use their superior acceleration to control the range and let Honor use Apollo to savage Chin's forces.

If Chin pulls out she's effectively writing off Tourville and conceding the battle.

And the whole war. You can give Chin some space to think things over.

I don't think they thought for a second those were regular old MDMs. The odd clustering of missiles typical of Apollo was readable from a long distance away, more than 3.5 minutes out.

And it's not like the Peeps are unaware that Honor's had a history of bluffing - Theisman was quite sure she was bluffing with decoys in the aftermath of 3rd Yeltsin when her battered SDs turn towards his detached forces (and he was correct in that).

That was Fourth Yeltsin. Honor fought in both the even-numbered ones; First Yeltsin was Raoul Courvoisier while Third was White Haven.

cthia wrote:Tourville still had 150 SDs. If her magazines didn't hold all Apollo pods, I doubt she would have wasted them on a feint that may not have worked in the first place, because that would have left her facing both Chin and Tourville closing in on her with a limited supply of superweapons. (That would have been like making the same mistake of wasting limited missiles like Meghan Petersen forced the SLN to do. And Honor is smarter than a fifth grader.)

I agree she would have only rolled Apollo pods. But once she arrived, her only option was to fire them, whether she was in position or not. It would take too long to close with Fifth Fleet while Third is being decimated. She could gamble by firing and roll more pods meanwhile.

What we are saying is that from Chin's point of view, she can't tell whether it's a bluff or not. However...

If she could afford to throw them away then what does that say about the tactical situation for the RHN against a Salamander with a surplus of superweapons?

Nothing. She had them rolled, she could not afford to wait. However...

Exactly! But that is the gist of my point that the tactical situation would be unchanged if she had hypered out and back in again. Risking her fleet to further pick the bones of an already beaten and battered Third Fleet was irresponsible. So that wasn't her goal, per se.

I've explained how 20-30 minutes would change things considerably. But you're insisting on the "tactical situation unchanged."

(However)... I think I get your point. You're indeed saying the tactical situation is unchanged because the RHN had lost the war. That's technically the strategic situation, but tactically it's still very similar because Chin can't outfight Honor. At best she could let Honor take potshots at her, taking SD(P) after SD(P) in hopes of Honor running out of missiles and giving time for Tourville to exfiltrate. The only way Haven could still win would be if they had more ships than Honor had missiles for. Would they pay to see this through?

It was the same logic and misplaced pride that challenged Crandall's thinking when she continued to insist on trying to support Filareta even though the tactical situation had become hopeless.

You probably mean Tsang and Filareta. Crandall had no knowledge of where Filareta was at the time of her own demise and Filareta didn't know he was going to Manticore at that time either.

And I think we've previously shown that it wasn't Tsang's pride. It might have been her arrogance, but it more likely her sheer stupidity for not having scouted or asked the ship that transited if the forts were still around. The Alignment really outdid itself in finding her.

Chin should have made the big call at that point to cut all losses and run. The only thing she could hope to achieve at that point was to die like Tourville. Or surrender like Tourville. But she had an option to run. Chin should have fled the scene to save the lives and the ships of her fleet, and trusted that Tourville would have the common sense to try and do the same. Just as Crandall should have fled and trusted that Filareta had common sense too.

Her hypering out means the war is over. She had a duty to be sure before going.

That said, I agree she should have figured out sooner.

I suppose there was the one other option to continue to fight against all odds and at all costs and hope the Salamander makes a mistake.

D'Orville had already made a serious mistake in this battle, so why not? As I said above: they could bank on their having more ships than Honor had missiles for. If Apollo wasn't quite as effective at long range as it was at close, Chin's force of 110+ SDs might hold on long enough for something else to change.

Tourville was written off as soon as the superweapons had arrived unopposed, unencumbered and un-mousetrapped.

Not necessarily. He was 150 million km from Honor. We don't know the exact geometry, but there's a possibility that he could reach the hyperlimit and flee. But I think we calculated this some two years ago and concluded it wasn't likely.

Either way, the war is over. Does it matter that he surrenders instead of hypering out?

BTW, is my memory playing tricks on me? I seem to recall Honor requesting a third of her pods be rolled. Is that scene bleed?

No, I actually think it was far more than just 3 minutes. I thought she began rolling pods even as her forces were transiting from Trevor's Star. I don't know where Jonathan's calculation came from.

cthia wrote:BTW, is my memory playing tricks on me? I seem to recall Honor requesting a third of her pods be rolled. Is that scene bleed?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:No, I actually think it was far more than just 3 minutes. I thought she began rolling pods even as her forces were transiting from Trevor's Star. I don't know where Jonathan's calculation came from.

At the very end of chapter 65 in At All Costs:

"I agree, too," Honor said. "But two things. First, I want to start rolling pods now. Use their onboard tractors to limpet them to the hulls. I want a third of our total pod loadout out there, if we can manage it."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
No, I actually think it was far more than just 3 minutes. I thought she began rolling pods even as her forces were transiting from Trevor's Star. I don't know where Jonathan's calculation came from.

8th Fleet rolled 5,000 pods prior to transit through the junction from Trevor's Star. 8th Fleet jumped from the middle of the resonance zone to a distance of 78 million kilometers from 5th Fleet. 8th Fleet rolled an additional 2,776 pods, for a total of 7,776 pods (almost half its allotment) and fired 62,208 missiles (and 7,776 Apollo control missiles).

Honor had ~31 Apollo SD(p)s, each able to roll 30 pods a minute (6 pods/12 sec), or 3 minutes of pod roll AFTER she jumped. However, it seems she also rolled pods for ~6 minutes prior to the hyper jump, to get the 5000 pods limpeted to the fleet's hulls through the hyper jump.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I've explained how 20-30 minutes would change things considerably. But you're insisting on the "tactical situation unchanged."

(However)... I think I get your point. You're indeed saying the tactical situation is unchanged because the RHN had lost the war. That's technically the strategic situation, but tactically it's still very similar because Chin can't outfight Honor. At best she could let Honor take potshots at her, taking SD(P) after SD(P) in hopes of Honor running out of missiles and giving time for Tourville to exfiltrate. The only way Haven could still win would be if they had more ships than Honor had missiles for. Would they pay to see this through?
[snip]

I suppose there was the one other option to continue to fight against all odds and at all costs and hope the Salamander makes a mistake.

D'Orville had already made a serious mistake in this battle, so why not? As I said above: they could bank on their having more ships than Honor had missiles for. If Apollo wasn't quite as effective at long range as it was at close, Chin's force of 110+ SDs might hold on long enough for something else to change.

Tourville was written off as soon as the superweapons had arrived unopposed, unencumbered and un-mousetrapped.

Not necessarily. He was 150 million km from Honor. We don't know the exact geometry, but there's a possibility that he could reach the hyperlimit and flee. But I think we calculated this some two years ago and concluded it wasn't likely.

Either way, the war is over. Does it matter that he surrenders instead of hypering out?

But anyway, it now occurs to me that if it turned out Apollo was only effective to the ~50 million km it'd previously been observed to function then there might have been a point to Chin hanging around.

8th fleet had emerged about 73 million km from Chin's forces. If they'd had to close 20 million km before their Apollo superweapon became effective that would have taken even RMN SD(P)s over 40 minutes (longer if Chin turns away). That's plenty of time to finish thoroughly wrecking RMN's 3rd fleet. And then Tourville's battered, but still dangerous, fleet was at least 144 million km from Honor's 8th fleet - and so again if Apollo had been effective at no more than 50 million km Tourville would have had over an hour and forty minutes before Honor could close the nearly 95 million km range -- and he would have turned away.
(And both those times are assuming Honor goes for the high-speed flyby. If she wanted to slow down for an extended engagement it'd take far longer)

Given that much time Tourville could hope to smash Sphinx and Manticore's orbital yards and industries -- even in the face of their fixed defenses. Sure he couldn't hold the orbitals, nor could he escape. But in a counter-factual scenario where Apollo has 50 million km range Chin could keep 3rd fleet off his back and still hyper out before Honor crushes her, and without 3rd fleet to harry him Tourville has a chance to cripple Manticore's shipbuilding and industry before having to surrender. If he can pull it off then that's a partial Oyster Bay (presumably with fewer casualties because the stations would have begun evacuating), and one that catches the "Python lump" ships still on the stocks -- that'd at least give Haven a hell of a better negotiating position.

But to do that he'd need 3rd fleet kept from going after him -- and that's what Chin could have accomplished by staying in the fight if Honor had been bluffing.


Is it likely to work -- maybe not. But it means that even after Honor showed up it wasn't necessarily crazy to play for time. That their might have been a 3rd (strategic) victory condition - and given that possibility would make her hesitate.

tlb wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:No, I actually think it was far more than just 3 minutes. I thought she began rolling pods even as her forces were transiting from Trevor's Star. I don't know where Jonathan's calculation came from.

At the very end of chapter 65 in At All Costs:

"I agree, too," Honor said. "But two things. First, I want to start rolling pods now. Use their onboard tractors to limpet them to the hulls. I want a third of our total pod loadout out there, if we can manage it."

It can from poor memory plus stumbling across just part of the text while searching for something else. I saw the paragraph

At All Costs wrote:Eighth Fleet spent three minutes rolling pods. In that time, it deployed 7,776.
Then it fired.

and mistakenly though that was all the pods she'd rolled -- I hadn't reread the entire book, or even the entire battle.

So I was calculating 3 minutes of rolling pods, 6 pods per launch, 6 seconds between launches and coming up with 180 pods rolled per Invictus vs 1074 pods carried. (And since that text didn't remind me of how many SD(P)s Honor had I didn't notice any discrepancy between the pods/ship I calculated and the total pods launched)

Oops.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Is it likely to work -- maybe not. But it means that even after Honor showed up it wasn't necessarily crazy to play for time. That their might have been a 3rd (strategic) victory condition - and given that possibility would make her hesitate.

In the real time line, After Kusak stopped firing, Tourville was down to 68 effectives - with every one was damaged, along with a couple squadrons of hollow shells. All had less then 2 minutes worth of ammo left.

in this alt scenario, Kusak would Have kept firing until she was gone - probably only 3-4 more effective launches, and there was still a LAC strike headed for Tourville, who had no screen left. Tourville probably would have left the resonance zone with 40-50 effective ships - all moderately to heavily damaged - and zero ammo. Yes, he could have returned in 2-4 hours after re-arming, with only the capability of 3-4 squadrons of ships.

Could he have effectively punched out BOTH the Sphinx and Manticore defenses? We know The Gryphon had forts of it's own and, though not specifically mentioned there is a extremely high probability that, both Sphinx and Manticore are both protected by Forts as part of their defenses, in addition to missile pods, LAC groups and probably IDWPs. (Though Manticore used the majority of it's LAC with Home Fleet).

Yes, Chin will eventually join Tourville, but the best scenario is her losing 50% of her fleet to Honor (>10% already got lost to McKeon), so she will probably at best double Tourville's effective combat power. But would this be enough?

And Manticore still has another arrow in the quiver. Honor's BCs , BC(p)s and CLACs are still pouring through the Junction from Trevor's star. Once the 12 Medusa SDs arrive from Lynx (and anything else that could be drummed up from any other terminus - which we know is not much), you have another undamaged strike group that could jump directly to Sphinx. Yes, it will take awhile to form, but Tourville and Chin cannot twaddle.

Given what we know he has left, what he still had in store for him, etc, I don't think Tourville could have punched out the RMN planetary defenses without losing his entire force. In the Alt scenario, What Tourville would have had left after Scotty's LAC strike would have made him re-evaluate the next phase of the operation.

The idea of Beatrice was to force Manticore to the table before it could field the FTL weapon fleet wide, and end the war. Punching out Home, 3rd and 8th fleets, while Haven retains fighting power, effectively accomplishes that - flaming Havenite hulks in a dust filled Manticore orbit does not.

Theemile wrote:And Manticore still has another arrow in the quiver. Honor's BCs , BC(p)s and CLACs are still pouring through the Junction from Trevor's star. Once the 12 Medusa SDs arrive from Lynx (and anything else that could be drummed up from any other terminus - which we know is not much), you have another undamaged strike group that could jump directly to Sphinx. Yes, it will take awhile to form, but Tourville and Chin cannot twaddle.

Replace "are still pouring" with "will be pouring." Honor made a mass transit with the last of her SD(P)s, so that locked the Junction down for 18 hours. Those reinforcements aren't coming for that long. They will be, but not just yet. It might take hours for Second Fleet to extricate and hyper out, then a few more to rearm, but that's probably less than 18 in total.

The Lynx forces might come and 12 Medusas are not something to sneeze at, not when you calculate that Tourville is down to 5 or 6 squadrons.

Given what we know he has left, what he still had in store for him, etc, I don't think Tourville could have punched out the RMN planetary defenses without losing his entire force. In the Alt scenario, What Tourville would have had left after Scotty's LAC strike would have made him re-evaluate the next phase of the operation.

The idea of Beatrice was to force Manticore to the table before it could field the FTL weapon fleet wide, and end the war. Punching out Home, 3rd and 8th fleets, while Haven retains fighting power, effectively accomplishes that - flaming Havenite hulks in a dust filled Manticore orbit does not.

But maybe that does accomplish the goal. Remember Theisman talking about 600 new SD(P)s coming soon-ish? With Home, Third and Eighth Fleet gone, someone has to cover the MBS and that's probably going to be drawn from Grayson and the Andermani, leaving those systems a bit weaker.

We know that the IAN SD(P)s were undergoing refit to get Keyhole II, but Theisman and the Octagon didn't. And we don't know how far along they were, compared to the Bolthole construction.

All in all, I'd say this would have accomplished the goal of getting Manticore to the negotiating table. With this massive battle on the books and with the Solarian threat growing, Manticore would need to close this war front ASAP.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Tourville still had 150 SDs. If her magazines didn't hold all Apollo pods, I doubt she would have wasted them on a feint that may not have worked in the first place, because that would have left her facing both Chin and Tourville closing in on her with a limited supply of superweapons. (That would have been like making the same mistake of wasting limited missiles like Meghan Petersen forced the SLN to do. And Honor is smarter than a fifth grader.)

I agree she would have only rolled Apollo pods. But once she arrived, her only option was to fire them,

That wasn't her only option. She could have sat on them instead of wasting them firing on a target which is out of range. But since she was not out of effective range, then I can at least understand the logic to render some damage to Fifth Fleet plus give Chin something else to occupy her mind, giving the battered Third Fleet a reprieve.

But, Beatrice was formulated out of desperation and predicated on the bet that Apollo was in short supply.

Firing limited weapons when you are out of range --- further compounding her mistake --- would have been irresponsible. Her launch does not imply limited superweapons, upon the knowledge of an impending chess match. Given the parameters of their intel on Apollo's range.

Honor could have done the responsible thing and made a beeline for the target already caught in the system's web, deep inside the limit.

This battle is for all the marbles. It isn't a raid to destroy infrastructure. The RHN must seize the system to stop the inevitable. And Honor has to rid the system of these vermin. If Chin turns to trashing infrastructure, she has already admitted defeat.

I was once told that I can't reduce everything down to a chess match. I agree, not everything. But quite a lot can be. Chess helps you see a lot of things clearly.

Chess Match

In the alternate scenario, the tactical situation is reduced to a chess match with 65+ mkm to play with. That is still outside of the RHNs effective range.

The tactical situation is between:

[Eighth Fleet] vs [Second and Fifth] with 65+ mkm to play with. Kuzak's Fleet at this point is simply a pawn.

Honor will play a chess game of pushing her fleet's passed pawns to be promoted. Promotion is when she enters range of Tourville, who cannot run. Defeat in detail.

It would have been the hard call to ignore the battered Third Fleet, even write them off for the big picture.

The big picture

Hold the system. Destroy as many vermin as possible.

Tourville and his entire fleet would have perished. Leaving Chin with the only option of dying too if Honor's beeline toward the trapped Tourville brought her further in-system.

Chin could not be a sore loser and destroy infrastructure. That would be inviting tit for tat when the Salamander eventually arrives in the Haven system. And it wasn't the plan. Seize the system and stop Apollo from showing up at Nouveau Paris is imperative.

The Havenites could not afford to lose Fifth Fleet and Second Fleet, upon receipt of an inevitable rematch and showdown in Noveau Paris. Or if their intransigence was to huddle quickly and roll the dice again.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:whether she was in position or not. It would take too long to close with Fifth Fleet while Third is being decimated. She could gamble by firing and roll more pods meanwhile.

Honor would not have wasted time on Chin. Her immediate concern was the fly who crossed the hyper limit, trapped in her web. It would have been the hard call.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:What we are saying is that from Chin's point of view, she can't tell whether it's a bluff or not. However...

Because she was drinking gin. It really didn't matter if it was a bluff. Although she should have quickly came to the conclusion that it was not.

But it didn't matter because the strategic considerations of Beatrice at that point had been flushed down the toilet. There is an uncaged animal on the loose and she outranges you, still, with her superweapons.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:If she could afford to throw them away then what does that say about the tactical situation for the RHN against a Salamander with a surplus of superweapons?

Nothing. She had them rolled, she could not afford to wait. However...

Why not? The only people pressed for time in the whole scheme of things was the damaged Kuzak and Tourville. Honor could sacrifice her damaged pawn to destroy Tourville. Now it is a one on one with Chin. Would she be smart enough to run then? Honor having a surplus of superweapons in a chess match, where you are still out ranged in this alternate scenario is hopeless.

Another chess analogy
Honor is not moustrapped. In chess vernacular, she will be pushing her passed pawns to victory.

The outcome in the end would be the same. Except Tourville's Fleet would be destroyed instead of Chin's. Or both, because Chin was drinking gin.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Exactly! But that is the gist of my point that the tactical situation would be unchanged if she had hypered out and back in again. Risking her fleet to further pick the bones of an already beaten and battered Third Fleet was irresponsible. So that wasn't her goal, per se.

I've explained how 20-30 minutes would change things considerably. But you're insisting on the "tactical situation unchanged."

Unchanged! You keep factoring in variables that are unimportant to Beatrice. The RHN can not achieve their objective. Not even part of it. Honor will eventually defeat them in detail with her passed pawns (untrapped Eighth). The only tactical consideration at that point of the chess match would be to go ahead and resign or lose more pieces playing a losing position to superior firepower with superior position and range. Most players just lay down their King.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:(However)... I think I get your point. You're indeed saying the tactical situation is unchanged because the RHN had lost the war. That's technically the strategic situation, but tactically it's still very similar because Chin can't outfight Honor.

Yes. But once again we are back to my niece's definition of strategy and tactics.

The entire strategy of Beatrice was to eliminate the RMNs advantage of superweapons by conquering the system.

They were to accomplish those goals on the spot by using the tactic of mousetrapping Eighth Fleet.

That strategic objective is always in play. It is imperative. And the tactical situation that must be overcome to achieve the strategic objective will still be the same after 20-30 minutes while Honor drives hard toward Tourville. Regardless of what Chin does.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:At best she could let Honor take potshots at her, taking SD(P) after SD(P) in hopes of Honor running out of missiles and giving time for Tourville to exfiltrate. The only way Haven could still win would be if they had more ships than Honor had missiles for. Would they pay to see this through?

Exactly! And perhaps you can see now why I said that Honor showing that she had superweapons to burn factors into it.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:It was the same logic and misplaced pride that challenged Crandall's thinking when she continued to insist on trying to support Filareta even though the tactical situation had become hopeless.

You probably mean Tsang and Filareta. Crandall had no knowledge of where Filareta was at the time of her own demise and Filareta didn't know he was going to Manticore at that time either.

And I think we've previously shown that it wasn't Tsang's pride. It might have been her arrogance, but it more likely her sheer stupidity for not having scouted or asked the ship that transited if the forts were still around. The Alignment really outdid itself in finding her.

Thanks for pointing out the errata that always seems to find its way into publishing. I have already edited the original post. I agree that arrogance played a part. But I think it was also pride in her beloved gorilla.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Chin should have made the big call at that point to cut all losses and run. The only thing she could hope to achieve at that point was to die like Tourville. Or surrender like Tourville. But she had an option to run. Chin should have fled the scene to save the lives and the ships of her fleet, and trusted that Tourville would have the common sense to try and do the same. Just as Crandall should have fled and trusted that Filareta had common sense too.

Her hypering out means the war is over. She had a duty to be sure before going.

That said, I agree she should have figured out sooner.

Which is my entire argument. Once Eighth Fleet and that damn pesky Salamander showed up uncaged and untrapped with Tourville caught too far in-system, the war is lost.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:I suppose there was the one other option to continue to fight against all odds and at all costs and hope the Salamander makes a mistake.

D'Orville had already made a serious mistake in this battle, so why not? As I said above: they could bank on their having more ships than Honor had missiles for. If Apollo wasn't quite as effective at long range as it was at close, Chin's force of 110+ SDs might hold on long enough for something else to change.

Back to banking on the Salamander making a mistake with a surplus of superweapons and still with the range advantage?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Tourville was written off as soon as the superweapons had arrived unopposed, unencumbered and un-mousetrapped.

Not necessarily. He was 150 million km from Honor. We don't know the exact geometry, but there's a possibility that he could reach the hyperlimit and flee. But I think we calculated this some two years ago and concluded it wasn't likely.

I read that, and it is what I was banking on. But to be fair to you, was that calculation done with Apollo's actual range? If so, Tourville may have a chance.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Either way, the war is over. Does it matter that he surrenders instead of hypering out?

Well, unless they are going to continue to be stubborn and throw everything they got left at another run at the MBS in hopes that they have time before more Apollo missiles can be produced, then no. Other than the possibility of POWs.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:BTW, is my memory playing tricks on me? I seem to recall Honor requesting a third of her pods be rolled. Is that scene bleed?

No, I actually think it was far more than just 3 minutes. I thought she began rolling pods even as her forces were transiting from Trevor's Star. I don't know where Jonathan's calculation came from.

Since I am right about a third of her pods. Honor must have been thinking, "A third for Fifth, and a third for Second , still leaves me with a third. I'm good."

cthia wrote:That wasn't her only option. She could have sat on them instead of wasting them firing on a target which is out of range. But since she was not out of effective range, then I can at least understand the logic to render some damage to Fifth Fleet plus give Chin something else to occupy her mind, giving the battered Third Fleet a reprieve.

But, Beatrice was formulated out of desperation and predicated on the bet that Apollo was in short supply.

Firing limited weapons when you are out of range --- further compounding her mistake --- would have been irresponsible. Her launch does not imply limited superweapons, upon the knowledge of an impending chess match. Given the parameters of their intel on Apollo's range.

If it's irresponsible but works and saves your system and wins the war, was it really irresponsible?

In my mind, irresponsible and downright negligent would be to do nothing when she could do something. Third Fleet is getting hammered at this point. If she fires 82k missiles and this point and Chin blinks, she's won. Chin could think she was in range because she fired.

Even if she was out of range but fired one third of her load out, she still has time to roll enough pods before getting into range, by which time Chin has to leave anyway. I'll agree with your earlier post that once Honor showed up, she won the war. Considering Apollo production is picking up, sparing ammunition is not a concern to her.

Honor could have done the responsible thing and made a beeline for the target already caught in the system's web, deep inside the limit.

She was nearly 40 minutes away from the previously-established range. Third Fleet and a lot of spacers would have died by then.

This battle is for all the marbles. It isn't a raid to destroy infrastructure. The RHN must seize the system to stop the inevitable. And Honor has to rid the system of these vermin. If Chin turns to trashing infrastructure, she has already admitted defeat.

No, she doesn't need to exterminate the RHN. She only has to make them go away for long enough. Everyone involved knows that the Apollo production is picking up, so the Alliance wins if both of these conditions are true: enough time passes and they have sufficient platforms to fire from. If only the time condition comes true, then the Alliance can't lose because Manticore, Grayson and New Berlin can't be taken out, but won't immediately win either.

Shannon Foraker might have something to say about matching the technology, given enough time.

And besides, it is a spoiling raid a secondary objective. If the RHN could take out the Apollo production facilities and the Python Lump, they buy themselves a lot of time.

Hold the system. Destroy as many vermin as possible.

Hold the system is the primary objective. Destroying the enemy is tertiary. Saving her people is the secondary, and Third Fleet is included as "hers," as are the LAC crews that are going to attack Second Fleet, plus the spacers aboard the hulks of Home Fleet that SAR can't get to until the shooting stops. Equally is protecting the infrastructure.

Destroying the enemy is tertiary because the expertise to build more Apollos and to man ships is retained. Remember the Python Lump is coming and all those brand-new Invictus ships will need crews, preferably to hit the ground running.

Chin could not be a sore loser and destroy infrastructure. That would be inviting tit for tat when the Salamander eventually arrives in the Haven system. And it wasn't the plan. Seize the system and stop Apollo from showing up at Nouveau Paris is imperative.

Destroying military infrastructure is fair in war, whether it's tit-for-tat or not. Honor did it to Sol because the Mandarins had ordered it on innocent, neutral and non-belligerent systems, to the point of causing Eridani Edict violations. She had to teach them a lesson. If the RHN had managed to destroy some of Manticore's war-producing capability, but the Alliance still won, Honor wouldn't need to destroy Haven's. There's no need to teach a lesson.

On the other hand, if the Alliance determined that Haven was too much of a threat to retain its shipbuilding industry, they'd take it and scuttle those orbital industries whether Chin attacked anything in Manticore or not.

The point is: so long as Chin is not committing atrocities, she can't think too much (or at all) about what her escalation can mean.

Honor would not have wasted time on Chin. Her immediate concern was the fly who crossed the hyper limit, trapped in her web. It would have been the hard call.

Completely disagree, with a capital C. Second Fleet was not in a threatening position right now, but Fifth was. Moreover, Third Fleet's surviving ships were in position to intercept Second, so if Tourville's threat could be answered by relieving Third.

Because she was drinking gin. It really didn't matter if it was a bluff. Although she should have quickly came to the conclusion that it was not.

But it didn't matter because the strategic considerations of Beatrice at that point had been flushed down the toilet. There is an uncaged animal on the loose and she outranges you, still, with her superweapons.

I agree. Chin should have come to the correct conclusion sooner. And even if she wasn't sure it was a bluff, the worst thing she could do is wait and THEN hyper out. We can list many reasons why she might have done that, but that doesn't make it any less bad.

Exactly! And perhaps you can see now why I said that Honor showing that she had superweapons to burn factors into it.

Indeed, and Terekhov did the same at Spindle, when he detonated 12,000 Apollo missiles short of the SLN fleet.

Thanks for pointing out the errata that always seems to find its way into publishing. I have already edited the original post. I agree that arrogance played a part. But I think it was also pride in her beloved gorilla.

Isn't misplaced or unofunded pride arrogance?

Which is my entire argument. Once Eighth Fleet and that damn pesky Salamander showed up uncaged and untrapped with Tourville caught too far in-system, the war is lost.

Everyone agrees. So did Chin, actually.

In any case, it doesn't look like it was deliberation. She didn't put two and two together quickly enough: as we said earlier in this thread, there was no other formation of the size that showed up other than Eighth Fleet. Whether Honor was leading it or she was out-of-place somewhere else is immaterial.

Back to banking on the Salamander making a mistake with a surplus of superweapons and still with the range advantage?

No.

My point is that if Chin could have considered it a bluff or wondered if Eighth Fleet had been restocked enough with Apollos to outfight her and Tourvile, or any of a number of other things that could eventually lead to the RHN winning, she should have stuck around to see it through. Changing her mind in the middle would make sense if she got new information to reevaluate the decision (like, for example, being told that those oncoming missiles were indeed behaving like Apollos).

But that's not what happened. The delay was not deliberation.

I read that, and it is what I was banking on. But to be fair to you, was that calculation done with Apollo's actual range? If so, Tourville may have a chance.

I remember calculating what would have happened if she had chased him straight across the system and the calculation was that she would reach 75 million km well before the far side's hyperlimit, even from a standing start.

However, those calculations did have an assumption that the far hyperlimit was the best option. It's possible that wasn't the case, because Tourville could be in a position where his closest hyperlimit was not on an approach to Honor, either moving at right angles or more than 90°. Then there's also the issue that it may not be responsible to chase after him and leave the planets uncovered.