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Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster Bay

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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Theemile   » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:56 am

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Theemile wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Matapan is indeed in the middle of nowhere, an undeveloped region, where logistical problems would surely arise. There's no planet near the terminus, so any decent system with an asteroid belt for resource extraction and a planet for R&R is at least a few light-years away. Building the shipyards would need to be done from scratch. Not to mention that building something out there would be a logistical nightmare: unless you start making entire ships from basic blocks to final fitting, you'd have to freight sub-assemblies through the wormhole.

Here's the interesting thing: all of the above also describes Bolthole, but Bolthole was in many ways worse. The J-156-18(L)-Calvin WH connects to an uninhabited system and Sanctuary is a few light-years away, but J-156-18(L) is also in the middle of nowhere, unlike the MWHJ. There was no deep space industry in Sactuary, but the population was even worse since they were only at Renaissance level of technology. Haven had to build everything from scratch, but they had an even poorer technology and education base.

Bolthole did and does have some advantages that Matapan wouldn't, though. First, when the Legislaturalists and CPS invested in it, fiscal sanity wasn't an issue. Second, the system has a total of 11 asteroid belts to use, if they want to. Most importantly, no one outside of Haven and Manticore governments knows where it is and it's not even easy to find if you fly close to it, given the dust in the Sanctuary system. Matapan's galactic coordinates are known, so someone could just lug it out and go there in hyper.

In summary, Matapan would have some benefits for locating a shipyard, but I think there are better possibilities for the alliance first. Off the top of my head, Beowulf and Torch, just because they are systems that will need heavy defending anyway, then Spindle. Though far more likely are just more shipyards in the Manticore Binary System.


Personally, I DON'T think it should be a system with a shipyard, primarily because:
1) Nothing that can be done there cannot be done somewhere else, more economically.
2) While slightly hidden and physically separated from everyone else, it is not that well hidden (anyone watching wormhole traffic will see a massive jump in Matapan traffic) and the distance is not that great that it is immune from assault, making it another heavy defensive burden on the RMN.

That being said, if you were to look for a 2nd GA Bolthole location, it is the next best place WE know of. The reasons:
1) It is 1 wormhole jump from Manticore. As mentioned, Prefab structures, workforce, and supplies can be easily sourced and moved to and from Manticore.
2) It is 1 Wormhole jump from Manticore. Any mobile defenses can be easily reinforced (or can reinforce) the mobile forces in Manticore, allowing the defenses in both location to be slightly smaller than if we were discussing another location.
3) Low Wormhole/system traffic. Emerging systems don't require many freighters of supplies, and any freighters are probably MMM regulars on the run, so details can be controlled.
4) It has great physical distance from other powers. Making a hyper assault much more difficult, though not impossible.
5) Manpower for construction stations usually live in Habs located near the yards - so building Habs in the system because there is no planet is a neutral point, but it probably rises the costs of living (because everything needs shipped in). Also remember, the SLN's largest ship builder, TIY, is centered in Yildune, a system with no planets, but lots of asteroids.



Replying to another post makes me think Matapan isn't so remote, with little wormhole traffic - both Asgerd and Manticore have wormhole termini in the Matapan cluster - there is probably a massive amount of traffic passing through the cluster between the the 2 termini using the shortcut between Manticore and Asgerd. This would make the Matapan system less desirable for a "hidden" shipyard.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by tlb   » Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:41 am

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Theemile wrote:Replying to another post makes me think Matapan isn't so remote, with little wormhole traffic - both Asgerd and Manticore have wormhole termini in the Matapan cluster - there is probably a massive amount of traffic passing through the cluster between the the 2 termini using the shortcut between Manticore and Asgerd. This would make the Matapan system less desirable for a "hidden" shipyard.

As of the Pearl, there is little traffic and little economic benefit to increasing traffic at present, although the area is not as poor as Lynx. Asgard is concentrating on Midgard, not Matapan, so apparently most traffic is back and forth between Matapan and Manticore. From the picture you posted in the other thread, most traffic between Asgard and Manticore would go through the Andermani Empire.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Galactic Sapper   » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:04 pm

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IMO the far more likely vulnerability is a Beowulf or New Tuscany style trojan horse attack. Or even the sort of unpleasantness that Harkness inflicted on Cordelia Ransom. Why risk giving your opponent a look at your super secret hardware when sneakiness and sabotage can do just as well?

Sure, you might not get every ship under construction, but if you can get the work force that's almost as good as getting the ships AND the workforce like Oyster Bay did.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by tlb   » Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:25 pm

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Galactic Sapper wrote:IMO the far more likely vulnerability is a Beowulf or New Tuscany style trojan horse attack. Or even the sort of unpleasantness that Harkness inflicted on Cordelia Ransom. Why risk giving your opponent a look at your super secret hardware when sneakiness and sabotage can do just as well?

Sure, you might not get every ship under construction, but if you can get the work force that's almost as good as getting the ships AND the workforce like Oyster Bay did.

The sort of attacks that took place in Beowulf (both the orbital bombs and the Silver Bullet attack on Mycroft), provided that they figure out how they were accomplished, seem to argue that commercial, residential and military areas need to be set up so that movements between them are strictly controlled. That is partially accomplished by having the military research, construction and training in a separate system from the normal civilian activities and strictly forbidding civilian access. But until there is a way to detect and intercept the Silver Bullets or the weapons used in the Yawata Strike, the only option is a secret location such as Bolthole.

I understand the concentration of force that you get by having everything in the same system, but that just puts more of a premium on the enemy using the stealth attacks that have been so successful.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Sigs   » Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:58 pm

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kzt wrote:No.

For several reasons. First, they still are vulnerable to the same attack. You just need less ships to carry out the attack. So you'll have to deploy the very expensive deep space sensors and the rather large fleet of rapid response ships to support this in every system.

You don't have to go in every system, the SEM has 50-60 systems so having 5-6 major yards and industrial centers would allow them to create 5-6 major bases that they would need anyway. Make two each in Silesia and Talbott along with Manticore and Trevor's Star. By increasing the number of industrial centers you increase the targets so to ensure the success of the mission the attacker would need to increase the size of each individual attack. Dispersal increases the chance of someone going too soon or falling behind timings and then increases the chance of something going wrong in at least one of those systems if not more. And you can go further, 60% of your industry is split amongst 6 centers and the other 40% is split amongst the 90% remaining systems. It would take overwhelming force, incredible luck for the attackers and terrible luck for the defenders for the entire industry to be destroyed.


Second, the military capability of the SKM is limited. The more places you make them protect you either have to reduce their ability to project force or they have to only fairly lightly defend the dispersed yards.
By the time the industry becomes available the RMN should be significantly stronger in order to be able to protect it's territory and meet its obligations to the GA. At the moment the RMN can meet it's obligations because each one of it's SD(P) is as powerful as 20 SLN SD's but that will eventually change, so one way or another they need more ships since they have exponentially more systems to protect now.

This put them in danger of being destroyed in detail by a single conventional force that rolls over a series of yards one after another by being able to crush the defense at each yard one at a time.
Then it would also leave 87.5% of the population poorly defended because they have no industrial value while tying down the majority of the RMN to one system because the SEM would still essentially be a one system nation since losing the Manticore system would be the same as losing the 90%+ of the indsutry and shipyards.


Then there is the little problem with geography, the SEM is so spread out with acess to the WH they have internal lines of communication.
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Theemile   » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:11 am

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Sigs wrote:
kzt wrote:No.

For several reasons. First, they still are vulnerable to the same attack. You just need less ships to carry out the attack. So you'll have to deploy the very expensive deep space sensors and the rather large fleet of rapid response ships to support this in every system.

You don't have to go in every system, the SEM has 50-60 systems so having 5-6 major yards and industrial centers would allow them to create 5-6 major bases that they would need anyway. Make two each in Silesia and Talbott along with Manticore and Trevor's Star. By increasing the number of industrial centers you increase the targets so to ensure the success of the mission the attacker would need to increase the size of each individual attack. Dispersal increases the chance of someone going too soon or falling behind timings and then increases the chance of something going wrong in at least one of those systems if not more. And you can go further, 60% of your industry is split amongst 6 centers and the other 40% is split amongst the 90% remaining systems. It would take overwhelming force, incredible luck for the attackers and terrible luck for the defenders for the entire industry to be destroyed.


Second, the military capability of the SKM is limited. The more places you make them protect you either have to reduce their ability to project force or they have to only fairly lightly defend the dispersed yards.
By the time the industry becomes available the RMN should be significantly stronger in order to be able to protect it's territory and meet its obligations to the GA. At the moment the RMN can meet it's obligations because each one of it's SD(P) is as powerful as 20 SLN SD's but that will eventually change, so one way or another they need more ships since they have exponentially more systems to protect now.

This put them in danger of being destroyed in detail by a single conventional force that rolls over a series of yards one after another by being able to crush the defense at each yard one at a time.
Then it would also leave 87.5% of the population poorly defended because they have no industrial value while tying down the majority of the RMN to one system because the SEM would still essentially be a one system nation since losing the Manticore system would be the same as losing the 90%+ of the indsutry and shipyards.


Then there is the little problem with geography, the SEM is so spread out with acess to the WH they have internal lines of communication.



David's reply to this argument several years ago was this : Manticore is the one system "That must be defended at all costs" in the empire. You couold lose any other system - and if you drove the defenders out, they would regroup, reinforce, and take it back. MANTICORE had to be defended to the death, no matter what. It is the center of government, the home to the Manticorian people, the house of the Queen, the economic engine, and the junction which connects the spokes of the empire - and is protect as such with force levels seen in few other systems in the galaxy. Because of this, it makes sense to place all the vulnerable lifeblood of the fleet (the shipbuilding) inside those same defenses.

So we may feel that Talbott's shipyards should see a huge cash infusion and Silesia's current navy yards rebuilt to the latest standards, Hancock and Marsh upgraded to full production capability, and a bolthole stashed somewhere else, just in case. David still sees it differently.

However, we are seeing the dispersion happen ORGANICALLY. In the leadup to Henke's decision to capture Meyers, The Tablott regional govenment took a look at their resources, and realized their strength together, and started planning for a regional military as their part of the Empire. And in doing so they realized that as a region, they had the capability to build most of that their new guard force needed - including building troop transports for the force.

I imagine (and I could be wrong) that someone contacted Manticore and told them the plans and requested shipbuilding plans for some older troop transports, and started building them to transport the guard in Talbott yards. As part of this, any building hurdle was probably upgraded out of crown money and expedited, because they were planning a larger, even better armed force to follow the current army - and that requires proper transports, not just merchies. And such ships need support ships, (repair ships, stores ships, hospital ships) and escorts.

While not mentioned, why would such items not be on the table? The regional government was taking it's part in the Empire seriously, and building modernish escorts would be part of that. They may not be able to build Rolands, but upgrading now to Chansons and Valiants (something that could also be exported in a few years) would allow them to contribute, and start the upgrade train.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by tlb   » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:00 am

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Theemile wrote:I imagine (and I could be wrong) that someone contacted Manticore and told them the plans and requested shipbuilding plans for some older troop transports, and started building them to transport the guard in Talbott yards. As part of this, any building hurdle was probably upgraded out of crown money and expedited, because they were planning a larger, even better armed force to follow the current army - and that requires proper transports, not just merchies. And such ships need support ships, (repair ships, stores ships, hospital ships) and escorts.

Someone in the thread on rebuilding the SKM also talked about using Crown money. Why wouldn't it be regular government money? Why would the Monarch dip into their private purse for this purpose? Also, why build to an older design?
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Theemile   » Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:34 pm

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tlb wrote:
Theemile wrote:I imagine (and I could be wrong) that someone contacted Manticore and told them the plans and requested shipbuilding plans for some older troop transports, and started building them to transport the guard in Talbott yards. As part of this, any building hurdle was probably upgraded out of crown money and expedited, because they were planning a larger, even better armed force to follow the current army - and that requires proper transports, not just merchies. And such ships need support ships, (repair ships, stores ships, hospital ships) and escorts.

Someone in the thread on rebuilding the SKM also talked about using Crown money. Why wouldn't it be regular government money? Why would the Monarch dip into their private purse for this purpose? Also, why build to an older design?


could be either way - the Crown has that incentive program for local businesses for Manticore investment dollars with tax credits, or it could be funded out of the local govt. I was more saying "crown" in the generic tense meaning govt.

The reason for the older designs - a Chanson or Valiant is within moderate uplift of existing shipyards and such ships (updated to 1922 techs), and while not the sharpest or longest spears,they are still being used for offensive operations. If you are going to spend the money, that design level should be the lowest bar you should aim to achieve (in late 1922/early 1923) and still be qualified as producing a viable RMN warfighter. Investing to the point where you can build sag-Cs and Rolands, while commendable, is probably not achievable in the current environment - you just can't order those machine tools right now because the factories don't exist. By the time you could get all those tools, you could have uplifted to Chanson level and pumped out a few copies. When capable, you switch to Avalons. And if you can't build a Chanson - don't build any warfighter - and focus on what you can build.

The Talbot Quadrant Govt is looking to be a contributor to it's own defense. It's not looking to field any junk it can, but it is looking to see where they can make a significant contribution - now. If that is just troop transports - they will quickly upgrade the regional shipyards to where they can produce something the RMN would field, even if it is a slightly older design. And if they can upgrade to the point where they can produce warships that are the peer of currently fielded RMN ships- even slightly older ships - I think they will try. And while the RMN would prefer 10 new Rolands, someone tell me they wouldn't accept 10 new Chansons, crewed by Talbott crews, to bolster their numbers.

But - this will not be the RMN doing this - it will be the Talbott Quadrant Govt, attempting to contribute in a positive manner.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:26 pm

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Theemile wrote:...And while the RMN would prefer 10 new Rolands, someone tell me they wouldn't accept 10 new Chansons, crewed by Talbott crews, to bolster their numbers.

But - this will not be the RMN doing this - it will be the Talbott Quadrant Govt, attempting to contribute in a positive manner.


1) I'm sure someone will come up with exact details, but the entire TQ only has ONE shipyard, plus another in the system that declined entry(?). They are capable of building light cruisers and smaller, it relatively modern transports.

2) The TQ is fielding LAC squadrons and 4DMs as fast as they can be organized. They will double as remedial trainers and front-line SDF. They will train with CLAC and Charles Ward class fleet-support ships for training and operations.

3) The SEM/TQ has explicitly stated that the TQ will NOT be 'second-class citizens' or field second-class ships.

4) The MMM has a surplus of ships in the short-term. Expanding the Rembrandt yards to build transports and possibly more Charles Ward-class FSVs is definitely possible. Rembrandt has the plans and tooling for Dromedary-class freighters. They should has plans for LACs, LAC Bases, 4DMs and Pods. The plans and tooling for CLACs and FSVs are mostly inherent in the LAC base specs and/or Dromedary designs.

5) Proving LAC/4DM coverage of the TQ frees up mobile assets for offensive action. The TQ Guard contributes occupation forces. As TQ personnel get qualified, the will get integrated into the RMN or RMA.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Would Dispersing Shipyards Blunt or Stop a Second Oyster
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:58 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:1) I'm sure someone will come up with exact details, but the entire TQ only has ONE shipyard, plus another in the system that declined entry(?). They are capable of building light cruisers and smaller, it relatively modern transports.


Given an existing shipyard that can build light cruisers, it doesn't seem beneficial to "upgrade" it to outdated DD designs. If the RMN gives the blueprints, that shipyard is probably already capable. And given what RFC told us of how manufacturing works, it might be able to build a Roland given the blueprints.

My guess is that the TQ government would expand that shipyard to have more capacity for DDs, CLs and maybe a CA line or two. Not in a hurry, but steadily. I see the need for heavy units currently well satisfied in the RMN (in fact, too many, see the end of UH), so the TQ can contribute with lighter units for anti-piracy both at home and in the Verge newly freed from OFS and SLN.
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