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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:11 pm

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David is postulating such a magical approach that you can't really make any extrapolations. That said, I will.

I would assume that the system that make what are essentially General Products Hulls for ships are not fabrication units, they are some sort of device that grows the hull in the yard on the framework once the core is completed. (Mostly because we know that their are systems placed inside the armor that are larger than any hatches of the armored hull.)

This suggests that a fabrication unit can make an essentially endless unit. So if you want a 500 meter long structural beam a 5 meter long one can build one by just pushing the z-axis out of the fabricator. The limiting factor is the size of the hatch x-axis and y-axis.

Consider a world where the cheap little 3d printer a lot of people today have can print a laptop, complete with the processor and memory. Or a hand grenade, complete with explosives and fuze.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:06 pm

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kzt wrote:David is postulating such a magical approach that you can't really make any extrapolations. That said, I will.

I would assume that the system that make what are essentially General Products Hulls for ships are not fabrication units, they are some sort of device that grows the hull in the yard on the framework once the core is completed. (Mostly because we know that their are systems placed inside the armor that are larger than any hatches of the armored hull.)

This suggests that a fabrication unit can make an essentially endless unit. So if you want a 500 meter long structural beam a 5 meter long one can build one by just pushing the z-axis out of the fabricator. The limiting factor is the size of the hatch x-axis and y-axis.

Consider a world where the cheap little 3d printer a lot of people today have can print a laptop, complete with the processor and memory. Or a hand grenade, complete with explosives and fuze.

The only hint, that I have seen, is that the SLN did manage to destroy a nano farm module at Beowulf. But what that might mean I have no idea.
I do like your idea of an approximation of what a fabrication unit might be is something derived from a 3D printer. Consider how much more intricate the Honorverse mechanism must be to be able to print a molecular circuitry cube or perhaps a fusion reactor. It would have to be fed with almost the whole periodic table and be able to create alloys and compounds to go into the finished product.

This does offer one solution to the problem you present of how someone else's blueprints can be flawlessly transformed into a finished product at a foreign fabrication unit. Suppose today there were a universal specification language for all 3D printers; then once a product was specified by that language any of today's 3D printers could create a sample, limited only by printer size and precision. Now push that into the Honorverse; given a description in the future universal specification language, then any fabrication unit could execute it to create as many examples as needed.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:49 pm

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To some extent, Manticore does't care what other systems do relative to their (Manticor's) currency. For Manticore, it's their currency and if you want to use the Junction you will pay in Manticorian Dollars. That certainly makes the accounting easier - for Manticore and everybody in the system and now Empire.
That other systems/entities start playing with their own currecy valuation -particulary relative to the Manticorian Dollar is important and could be considered ecomomic warfare. The thing is, there are both micro and macro economic factors involved and not just currency manipulation and speculation.
Even with Manticore not pumping out the comsumer and industrial goods in the volumes before Oyster Bay, the Junction still brings in revenue even if it's own merchant marine isn't carrying a lot of Manticorian exports. That will change.
In the end, and primarily in the short run, it will be primarily economic issues that drives SL systems to ship using MMM vessels as they start working the shipping routs in the League going forward. You really don't want to pay higher freight when you don't have to. If you are shipping via the Junction (or any RME owned/part owned terminus) the advantage of a lower transit fee for a MMM ship vs almost anybody else is going to make it much more cost effective to use the MMM ship.
If you hate all things Manticore enough, you can 1) pay higher shipping charges if you have to use a SEM terminus, 2) delay shipments till a non MMM ship is available on the routes you need, 3) cause your shipments to be dropped in a warehouse rather than be transhipped using a MMM ship. Expensive. You are often talking hundresd of (even thousands of) tons of goods and the cost/time value of getting them shipped somewhere less expensively (and faster) using MMM vs somebody else. So perhaps hundreds of thousands of credit uints (of yours) a day for every day you delay an/or higher relative cost going through the Junction somwhere.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by ldwechsler   » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:33 am

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Brigade XO wrote:To some extent, Manticore does't care what other systems do relative to their (Manticor's) currency. For Manticore, it's their currency and if you want to use the Junction you will pay in Manticorian Dollars. That certainly makes the accounting easier - for Manticore and everybody in the system and now Empire.
That other systems/entities start playing with their own currecy valuation -particulary relative to the Manticorian Dollar is important and could be considered ecomomic warfare. The thing is, there are both micro and macro economic factors involved and not just currency manipulation and speculation.
Even with Manticore not pumping out the comsumer and industrial goods in the volumes before Oyster Bay, the Junction still brings in revenue even if it's own merchant marine isn't carrying a lot of Manticorian exports. That will change.
In the end, and primarily in the short run, it will be primarily economic issues that drives SL systems to ship using MMM vessels as they start working the shipping routs in the League going forward. You really don't want to pay higher freight when you don't have to. If you are shipping via the Junction (or any RME owned/part owned terminus) the advantage of a lower transit fee for a MMM ship vs almost anybody else is going to make it much more cost effective to use the MMM ship.
If you hate all things Manticore enough, you can 1) pay higher shipping charges if you have to use a SEM terminus, 2) delay shipments till a non MMM ship is available on the routes you need, 3) cause your shipments to be dropped in a warehouse rather than be transhipped using a MMM ship. Expensive. You are often talking hundresd of (even thousands of) tons of goods and the cost/time value of getting them shipped somewhere less expensively (and faster) using MMM vs somebody else. So perhaps hundreds of thousands of credit uints (of yours) a day for every day you delay an/or higher relative cost going through the Junction somwhere.


There is so much we don't know that we are just spinning our wheels here. Chances are, there is some basic currency that is generally used. Not having one would almost lead to bartering. Chances are, everything is handled by electronic transfer. I doubt there will be inspecting ships intercepting ships as they go through the wormholes. Chances are, there will be a fee charged and paid while in transit.

We know almost nothing about the economies of the Honorverse. Of course, we do have a sort of imperialism in the League. But how it all works can be very confusing unless an author does what RFC did: ignore most of the issues.

But we are arguing like the blind men and the elephant: we have no real handle on the whole thing.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Theemile   » Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:59 am

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tlb wrote:
This does offer one solution to the problem you present of how someone else's blueprints can be flawlessly transformed into a finished product at a foreign fabrication unit. Suppose today there were a universal specification language for all 3D printers; then once a product was specified by that language any of today's 3D printers could create a sample, limited only by printer size and precision. Now push that into the Honorverse; given a description in the future universal specification language, then any fabrication unit could execute it to create as many examples as needed.



There are current standards. 3d models are normally made in .stl cad files. You open them in a "slicer" software with model specific settings for your printer which outputs a final .gcode file for the printer.

Reduction CAD/CAM automated routers and laser cutters work the same way, but by cutting down from a blank instead of building up from a build stock.

If I wanted to, I could take any .STL file to either my printer or CAM router, or to one of a series of services which could print it on an industrial unit (in a pluthera of plastics, metals and even wood) (www.shapeways.com)

There is no reason for that such would change in the future. The only difference will be the end "Slicer" software settings that output the .gcode for the printer units.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:45 pm

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stewart wrote:
GloriousRuse wrote:
Lacoon Uber Alles

-----------------

Lancoon II blocked SL hulls, but not SL goods -- if the SL goods were in Manty (or Grayson, Havenite, Beowulf or even Mannerheim) hulls, it got through.
That's probably not entirely true. Lacoon I ordered all the Manticoran hulls out of League space - so a Mantie hull arriving at the Junction with a SL cargo bound for some location within the League would not be allowed to proceed into League space. At best they might be able to go to a neutral location and attempt to find someone who will commit to take those goods to their final destination.

But most of the undelivered goods would be from Lacoon I - anything destined to a League world that a Mantie freighter was carrying when it received its non-discretionary recall orders would perforce be diverted with the ship towards Manticore rather than continuing to whatever the scheduled destination was.

Though I suppose it's possible that at least up until the point Lacoon II was activated - if not up to the point of the declaration of war - Manticore might have attempted to mitigate that somewhat by contracting League or neutral ships to deliver the diverted goods to their final destinations (they'd still be substantially late in arriving however)
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:54 pm

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kzt wrote:David is postulating such a magical approach that you can't really make any extrapolations. That said, I will.

I would assume that the system that make what are essentially General Products Hulls for ships are not fabrication units, they are some sort of device that grows the hull in the yard on the framework once the core is completed. (Mostly because we know that their are systems placed inside the armor that are larger than any hatches of the armored hull.)
Except we also know that Manticoran yards use chem-catalyst welding to assemble their ships - so they aren't seamlessly nano-assembled.

IIRC the only thing the books specifically said was nano-grown was the armor matrix over the finished hull -- while RFC seemed to say in some of the thread that the 100-ish ton MDMs and the specialty components of Keyhole II were also assembled in a nano-magic way (how Beowulf could transition so rapidly to mass producing them).

I doubt ship fusion reactors housings are nano-built or the flaw in Nike's fusion reactor housing shouldn't have happened. It sounds much more like a casting flaw that let the new alloy in the housing crystalize after a little use.

So just because some complex medium sized things (missiles, presumably impeller nodes and FTL transmitters, etc.) can be nano-assembled it's probably an overreach to assume everything can be.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:50 pm

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ldwechsler wrote:
Brigade XO wrote:To some extent, Manticore does't care what other systems do relative to their (Manticor's) currency. For Manticore, it's their currency and if you want to use the Junction you will pay in Manticorian Dollars. That certainly makes the accounting easier - for Manticore and everybody in the system and now Empire.
That other systems/entities start playing with their own currecy valuation -particulary relative to the Manticorian Dollar is important and could be considered ecomomic warfare. The thing is, there are both micro and macro economic factors involved and not just currency manipulation and speculation.
Even with Manticore not pumping out the comsumer and industrial goods in the volumes before Oyster Bay, the Junction still brings in revenue even if it's own merchant marine isn't carrying a lot of Manticorian exports. That will change.
In the end, and primarily in the short run, it will be primarily economic issues that drives SL systems to ship using MMM vessels as they start working the shipping routs in the League going forward. You really don't want to pay higher freight when you don't have to. If you are shipping via the Junction (or any RME owned/part owned terminus) the advantage of a lower transit fee for a MMM ship vs almost anybody else is going to make it much more cost effective to use the MMM ship.
If you hate all things Manticore enough, you can 1) pay higher shipping charges if you have to use a SEM terminus, 2) delay shipments till a non MMM ship is available on the routes you need, 3) cause your shipments to be dropped in a warehouse rather than be transhipped using a MMM ship. Expensive. You are often talking hundresd of (even thousands of) tons of goods and the cost/time value of getting them shipped somewhere less expensively (and faster) using MMM vs somebody else. So perhaps hundreds of thousands of credit uints (of yours) a day for every day you delay an/or higher relative cost going through the Junction somwhere.


There is so much we don't know that we are just spinning our wheels here. Chances are, there is some basic currency that is generally used. Not having one would almost lead to bartering. Chances are, everything is handled by electronic transfer. I doubt there will be inspecting ships intercepting ships as they go through the wormholes. Chances are, there will be a fee charged and paid while in transit.

We know almost nothing about the economies of the Honorverse. Of course, we do have a sort of imperialism in the League. But how it all works can be very confusing unless an author does what RFC did: ignore most of the issues.

But we are arguing like the blind men and the elephant: we have no real handle on the whole thing.


That appendage you are holding isnt the trunk.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by GloriousRuse   » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:52 pm

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Regardless of our knowledge, we are stuck with a contradictory situation:

Is manufacturing readjustment EASY or HARD. Yes, there are places in between on the spectrum, but they really aren't the use cases here.

It is a stated fact by RFC that the Sollie tech base is just as good as Manticore's, they're just behind militarily.

If manufacturing adjustment is EASY for a Mantie/Sollie level of tech, then yes, you can just send magic missile/ship/whatever .cad files and the rest works itself out. I'm not sure how you hand wave the supply chains and tools of tools situations...but we'll ignore that.

Great, Beowulf can build Mantie products in a snap. But so can the sollies. One captured missile, one Malignment spy of their supposedly dozens of near top management people send a blueprint, one Sollie agent who works in a micro-fusion plant manufactory with the right admin access, one person clicks the wrong funny-treecat-video and now you have Mantie tech. Just press send. Technodyne can be rolling Mk 23s off the lines today and giving them a Roman name. Hell, given how easy it is, they can be rolling Mantie-equivalent SDs off the lines as soon as they make a tool big enough.

Or manufacturing adjustment is HARD . In which case, yes the Sollies can't spin fast enough in two years, even with Malignment feeds. How does Manticore suddenly recoup from Oyster Bay? How does Beowulf suddenly become the producer of everything? As RFC mentioned, their baseline industrial technologies are all roughly equal.

Either way, we have a major inconsistency.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:52 am

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GloriousRuse wrote:Regardless of our knowledge, we are stuck with a contradictory situation:

Is manufacturing readjustment EASY or HARD. Yes, there are places in between on the spectrum, but they really aren't the use cases here.

It is a stated fact by RFC that the Sollie tech base is just as good as Manticore's, they're just behind militarily.

If manufacturing adjustment is EASY for a Mantie/Sollie level of tech, then yes, you can just send magic missile/ship/whatever .cad files and the rest works itself out. I'm not sure how you hand wave the supply chains and tools of tools situations...but we'll ignore that.

Great, Beowulf can build Mantie products in a snap. But so can the sollies. One captured missile, one Malignment spy of their supposedly dozens of near top management people send a blueprint, one Sollie agent who works in a micro-fusion plant manufactory with the right admin access, one person clicks the wrong funny-treecat-video and now you have Mantie tech. Just press send. Technodyne can be rolling Mk 23s off the lines today and giving them a Roman name. Hell, given how easy it is, they can be rolling Mantie-equivalent SDs off the lines as soon as they make a tool big enough.

Or manufacturing adjustment is HARD . In which case, yes the Sollies can't spin fast enough in two years, even with Malignment feeds. How does Manticore suddenly recoup from Oyster Bay? How does Beowulf suddenly become the producer of everything? As RFC mentioned, their baseline industrial technologies are all roughly equal.

Either way, we have a major inconsistency.


Manticore recovers by committing piracy. All the fab modules in transit to customers when Case Lacoon was implemented now belong to Manticore. If insuffectient, squadrons of raiders will visit various SL core systems to capture and appropriate fab modules. Might only take 10% from 10 systems or 100 systems just to be nice.
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