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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:24 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Cargos include fabrication modules. Very useful for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson orbital infrastrucure.

You have said this various times. Is it something RFC has indicated or it just an assumption on your part? In present shipping, finished products are much more prevalent than really big machine tools; which are probably specially ordered and specially shipped.

I would think that the sort of fabrication module that could help rebuild orbital infrastructure would be an item that could only be sold with a special license from the Foreign and Naval Offices.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Brigade XO   » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:58 pm

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tlb wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Cargos include fabrication modules. Very useful for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson orbital infrastrucure.

You have said this various times. Is it something RFC has indicated or it just an assumption on your part? In present shipping, finished products are much more prevalent than really big machine tools; which are probably specially ordered and specially shipped.

I would think that the sort of fabrication module that could help rebuild orbital infrastructure would be an item that could only be sold with a special license from the Foreign and Naval Offices.


I think the original statement about fabrication modules and big machine tools was suggesting that Manticore would seize said items (and possibly others) from the cargos of the MMM ships recalled by Lacoon I for their rebuilding.
I don't think that was what Manticore was doing. Not only wasn't it mentioned, if it was going to be part of the Government's policy then I suspect the RMN captains involved would not allowed anybody to just make the next delivery or so on the way to the nearest terminus in the direction of Manticore.
That not only doesn't fit the normal procedures of Manticore (well, perhaps if High Ridge was still in charge) but it goes out of the way to screw everybody involved. We are NOT told anything about what the Government did or didn't do/ has or has not done about the cargos being diverted to the Manticore System as part of Lacoon I but confiscating and then selling or just useing them for themselves wasn't mentioned and it doesn't fit with what elce we saw being done.
Remember, at Lacoon I all SL flagged ships were being TURNED AWAY from the termini controlled by Manticore. Not seized, not stripped of cargo and sent away, they were ONLY refused transit. No non-SL flagged ship appears to have been stopped for search for and seizure of SL owner cargos.

While the economic impact of the Lacoon operations was massive and assuredly damaged a lot companies and people, it was not to seize their goods.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:41 am

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tlb wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Cargos include fabrication modules. Very useful for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson orbital infrastrucure.

You have said this various times. Is it something RFC has indicated or it just an assumption on your part? In present shipping, finished products are much more prevalent than really big machine tools; which are probably specially ordered and specially shipped.

I would think that the sort of fabrication module that could help rebuild orbital infrastructure would be an item that could only be sold with a special license from the Foreign and Naval Offices.



You need to reread The Honor of the Queen.
The convoy that Honor Harrington escorted to Grayson was primarily high technology machine tools to upgrade Grayson's technology base, not finished goods.
The Honorverse features the establishment of new colonies. Shipping in an industrial base is probably SOP.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:41 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Cargos include fabrication modules. Very useful for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson orbital infrastrucure.

tlb wrote:You have said this various times. Is it something RFC has indicated or it just an assumption on your part? In present shipping, finished products are much more prevalent than really big machine tools; which are probably specially ordered and specially shipped.

I would think that the sort of fabrication module that could help rebuild orbital infrastructure would be an item that could only be sold with a special license from the Foreign and Naval Offices.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:You need to reread The Honor of the Queen.
The convoy that Honor Harrington escorted to Grayson was primarily high technology machine tools to upgrade Grayson's technology base, not finished goods.
The Honorverse features the establishment of new colonies. Shipping in an industrial base is probably SOP.

That was a special convoy of "treats" to welcome Grayson into an alliance and is unlikely to represent the normal cargo mix.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by cthia   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:49 am

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How much will the changing value of currency affect Manticore's economy? Surely the Solarian credit will flounder and the Manticoran dollar will become even stronger. Formerly, the galaxy standard was probably rooted in the might of the Solarian credit. The Haven sector may yet change that dynamic now. Textev bore witness that the SL could already hear the close footsteps of the Manticoran dollar.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:25 am

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cthia wrote:How much will the changing value of currency affect Manticore's economy? Surely the Solarian credit will flounder and the Manticoran dollar will become even stronger. Formerly, the galaxy standard was probably rooted in the might of the Solarian credit. The Haven sector may yet change that dynamic now. Textev bore witness that the SL could already hear the close footsteps of the Manticoran dollar.

Yes, the Manticore dollar will strengthen after normal trade resumes. But won't the Solarian credit also stabilize after a brief drop? After all the economies of the core worlds are untouched, except for the dislocations caused by Lacoon and the damage at Sol.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:18 am

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tlb wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Cargos include fabrication modules. Very useful for rebuilding Manticore and Grayson orbital infrastrucure.

tlb wrote:You have said this various times. Is it something RFC has indicated or it just an assumption on your part? In present shipping, finished products are much more prevalent than really big machine tools; which are probably specially ordered and specially shipped.

I would think that the sort of fabrication module that could help rebuild orbital infrastructure would be an item that could only be sold with a special license from the Foreign and Naval Offices.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:You need to reread The Honor of the Queen.
The convoy that Honor Harrington escorted to Grayson was primarily high technology machine tools to upgrade Grayson's technology base, not finished goods.
The Honorverse features the establishment of new colonies. Shipping in an industrial base is probably SOP.

That was a special convoy of "treats" to welcome Grayson into an alliance and is unlikely to represent the normal cargo mix.


Probably not a normal cargo mix but likely a common cargo mix. As I have pointed out many times, the advanced technology of the Honorverse with cheap access to space eliminates any scaracity of commodities. Just one cubic kilometer of asteroid contains a trillion tons of minerals that can likely support a system economy for a decade or even a century. This makes it unsustainable for backwards systems to support the purchase of luxury goods by selling bulk commodities. Even OFS runs sweat shops in the Verge to manufacture goods that are exported. Given this economic model, a backwards system would want to invest whatever foreign exchange it can muster in machine tools and basic manufacturing infrastructure rather than consumer goods. Even if export grade fabrication modules are a generation or two behind SEM advanced technology, they can provide the manufacturing base to bootstrap back up to pre OB capacity.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:34 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Probably not a normal cargo mix but likely a common cargo mix. As I have pointed out many times, the advanced technology of the Honorverse with cheap access to space eliminates any scaracity of commodities. Just one cubic kilometer of asteroid contains a trillion tons of minerals that can likely support a system economy for a decade or even a century. This makes it unsustainable for backwards systems to support the purchase of luxury goods by selling bulk commodities. Even OFS runs sweat shops in the Verge to manufacture goods that are exported. Given this economic model, a backwards system would want to invest whatever foreign exchange it can muster in machine tools and basic manufacturing infrastructure rather than consumer goods. Even if export grade fabrication modules are a generation or two behind SEM advanced technology, they can provide the manufacturing base to bootstrap back up to pre OB capacity.

But would a Verge system controlled by OFS be allowed to purchase such things from Manticore, even if OFS permitted them to have enough credit to afford them? We expect that Dresden in the Talbot Quadrant could not afford them, perhaps even if they were not controlled by a wealthier planet.

On the other hand, the export of Montana Beef (does that count as a bulk commodity or a luxury good?) allows them to import luxury goods. Unless a backward system has something special, like Montana beef, they will never accumulate the initial credit; given that they would be competing with established suppliers.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Theemile   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:07 pm

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tlb wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:Probably not a normal cargo mix but likely a common cargo mix. As I have pointed out many times, the advanced technology of the Honorverse with cheap access to space eliminates any scaracity of commodities. Just one cubic kilometer of asteroid contains a trillion tons of minerals that can likely support a system economy for a decade or even a century. This makes it unsustainable for backwards systems to support the purchase of luxury goods by selling bulk commodities. Even OFS runs sweat shops in the Verge to manufacture goods that are exported. Given this economic model, a backwards system would want to invest whatever foreign exchange it can muster in machine tools and basic manufacturing infrastructure rather than consumer goods. Even if export grade fabrication modules are a generation or two behind SEM advanced technology, they can provide the manufacturing base to bootstrap back up to pre OB capacity.

But would a Verge system controlled by OFS be allowed to purchase such things from Manticore, even if OFS permitted them to have enough credit to afford them? We expect that Dresden in the Talbot Quadrant could not afford them, perhaps even if they were not controlled by a wealthier planet.

On the other hand, the export of Montana Beef (does that count as a bulk commodity or a luxury good?) allows them to import luxury goods. Unless a backward system has something special, like Montana beef, they will never accumulate the initial credit; given that they would be competing with established suppliers.



Who says it's a planet doing the buying - maybe it's a transtellar that runs the planet for OFS.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:28 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Probably not a normal cargo mix but likely a common cargo mix. As I have pointed out many times, the advanced technology of the Honorverse with cheap access to space eliminates any scaracity of commodities. Just one cubic kilometer of asteroid contains a trillion tons of minerals that can likely support a system economy for a decade or even a century. This makes it unsustainable for backwards systems to support the purchase of luxury goods by selling bulk commodities. Even OFS runs sweat shops in the Verge to manufacture goods that are exported. Given this economic model, a backwards system would want to invest whatever foreign exchange it can muster in machine tools and basic manufacturing infrastructure rather than consumer goods. Even if export grade fabrication modules are a generation or two behind SEM advanced technology, they can provide the manufacturing base to bootstrap back up to pre OB capacity.

tlb wrote:But would a Verge system controlled by OFS be allowed to purchase such things from Manticore, even if OFS permitted them to have enough credit to afford them? We expect that Dresden in the Talbot Quadrant could not afford them, perhaps even if they were not controlled by a wealthier planet.

On the other hand, the export of Montana Beef (does that count as a bulk commodity or a luxury good?) allows them to import luxury goods. Unless a backward system has something special, like Montana beef, they will never accumulate the initial credit; given that they would be competing with established suppliers.

Theemile wrote:Who says it's a planet doing the buying - maybe it's a transtellar that runs the planet for OFS.

First: that may help the transtellar's bottom line, but not help the backward planet. But the question in this case is whether they would buy from Manticore or be required to buy from someone else with a relationship with OFS.
Second: of the very biggest fabrication units, the ones that could help rebuild orbital infrastructure, how many would be bought? One or two per planet, assuming someone could afford it, is my guess. After that there might be a market for repair parts, but a replacement system would not be needed for the expected life of the unit. If you have two, can each make repair parts for the other?
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