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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:32 pm

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Relax wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:


Battleship guns generate more than 2,000 gees.
Rifles generate 100,000 gees
Think you would need bout 10eex7 gee to get ignition.

NIT alert: Off by a power of 10. 10,000g from a rifle. And then this is only true for less than a mm of the barrel.



KE=1/2mV^2
KE=mgx
1/2mV^2 = mgx
1/2V^2 = gx
V^2/(2x) = g


Rifle velocities are typically about 2,800 feet per second but 3,500 to 4,000 feet per second is not uncommon.
V=1,000 m/s

Rifle barrel length is typically 16" to 20".
X=1/2 meter.

(1,000m/s)^2/(2x0.5) = 1eex6 m/s^2 = 100,000 gees.

This is the average accelleration. Anyone familiar with propellent pressure curves understands that peak accelleration can be nearly an order of magnitude higher for the first decimeter.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by cthia   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:40 pm

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The SEM seems to be cornering many markets. Will Haven and Grayson be represented equally in the spoils? Will the Andermani eventually grow even more envious of the Manties? Will the SEM grow too big for its britches? Will they become the new Gorilla on the block? People don't like you when you're on the top, spurning new enemies. The SEM can't please everyone.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:56 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:This is the average accelleration. Anyone familiar with propellent pressure curves understands that peak accelleration can be nearly an order of magnitude higher for the first decimeter.

The jerk at the start is apparently more of an issue than the sustained acceleration. But notice how that is in the ballpark of a honorverse missile accel.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:46 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Just thinking about the economics of the Honorverse. I believe that it was in ON BASILISK STATION, that Weber mentions that Honor Harrington's salary is about $50,000 per year (plus room and board?) and that capitol ship missiles cost $1 million. In later books Weber alludes to an SD(P) costing about as much as its missile load out so a major warship costs $10 billion. We don't have any other data on how much homes, rent, aircars and meals at nice restaurants cost.

IIRC, the population of the Manticore binary system is about 4 billion and Grayson has a population of 3 billion. Manticore might then have a GDP of $200 Trillion. Grayson was poor in HotQ so may be the GDP per capita was only $5,000 and GDP of $15 Trillion with most of that economic output devoted to food production. By AT ALL COSTS Grayson's GDP might be $40 Trillion with agriculture requiring a much smaller percentage.

Assuming Manticore devotes 10% of GDP to the military they have a budget $20 trillion. This will buy 1,000 SD(p)s per year, but the RMN has other expenses.

Grayson might devote 20% of GDP to military for a budget of $8 trillion. Grayson can buy only 400 SD(P)s per year but they too have other expenses.

We are in the ballpark.

Now the Star Empire of Manticore is acquiring extraterritorial possessions in the former Silesia as well as the Talbot quadrant. How many worlds? How many people? How much GDP now? How much GDP after Manticore invests in their infrastructure, education and technology base? How much of a military budget will Manticore have in 20 years?

Grayson has no territorial possessions. However; the GDP per capita will be restored then grow. I predict that the population will also increase as Graysons enjoy being able to procreate without fear of loosing nearly half their children. The gender imbalance will be corrected in 20 years, but in the meantime most Grayson men can afford to have Grayson ideal of 3 wives and get busy. The number of unmarried Grayson women will decrease because they along with available husbands will be wealthier. Expect some Grayson males who are wealthier or more popular to have 6 wives. Many single Grayson women might procreate solo. Total Fertility Rate of Grayson might go from 2.3 children per woman to 3 or even 4. Population could double while GDP per capita increases to near Manticoran levels.

If one assumes that Honor's salary is close enough to the mean for our purposes, then M$50,000 at the SEM's average productivity is the highest reasonable level of average income possible in the Honorverse. Let us further assume that Grayson's initial mean income average for Fringe worlds like those in Talbot...the Quadrant that is as well as Silesia. So, it seems that a reasonable assumption that SEM's mean income outside the old SKM is 10% of the SKM's as of the end of UH. Further assume that Grayson managed to achieve 50% of the SKM's per capita productivity and income as of the end of UH and that pace is achievable by Silesia and the TQ. My calculation requires that the FDI represented by the WHJ fees are invested abroad to reduce inflation to essentially 0.

That suggests that the 50 star systems of the SEM supports a GDP 27 times size of the Old SKM not counting Beowulf and any new Core world members to the SEM. It is very likely that such new members add as much as 10 SKM GDPs. So, somewhere around 40 times the GDP of the SKM.

The size of the RMN can expand to 20 times the current size and the SEM can still reduce the size of the relative cost by 50%. Assuming that a relative cost of 20% more is optimal, then the RMN can expand to 8 times of that in UH. Considering that the RMN has already been patrolling Silesia, the TQ only adds about 3-4 times the volume of space to cover. The extra hulls and personnel can patrol additional GA members in the Verge and ez-protectorates.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:07 pm

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Does it affect your calculation to note the median income in the US ($34k to $35k) is about that of an E-5 with over 6 years? So an officer should be over the average.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:14 pm

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kzt wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:This is the average accelleration. Anyone familiar with propellent pressure curves understands that peak accelleration can be nearly an order of magnitude higher for the first decimeter.

The jerk at the start is apparently more of an issue than the sustained acceleration. But notice how that is in the ballpark of a honorverse missile accel.



Actually an accurate pressure curve shows two pressure peaks. A small, brief spike when the primer detonates then a larger more prolonged peak as the propellent deflagerates. Part of the initial energy is expended to swage the projectile into the rifled bore. Bottom line is that it is amazing that lead and copper projectiles can stand the abuse.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:19 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Actually an accurate pressure curve shows two pressure peaks. A small, brief spike when the primer detonates then a larger more prolonged peak as the propellent deflagerates. Part of the initial energy is expended to swage the projectile into the rifled bore. Bottom line is that it is amazing that lead and copper projectiles can stand the abuse.

I find it pretty amazing that GPS guided projectiles can stand the abuse.

The Honorverse point it that this means you should be able to design missiles running on standard impellers. Which don't burn out and able to vary thrust continually from zero to 100%.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:24 am

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I am using the mean income not median. The few high earning outliers pull that mean above the median. Odds are that Honor's income as of OBS approximates the mean of the SKM. Am I dead on in my estimate? Likely not, but it's close enough.

tlb wrote:Does it affect your calculation to note the median income in the US ($34k to $35k) is about that of an E-5 with over 6 years? So an officer should be over the average.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:39 am

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An O5 with 20 years of service does not earn the mean US income. A US Navy O5 over 20 earns 104,000/year before allowances and additional pay.

The Mean income in the US is 36,500/year.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by tlb   » Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:57 am

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kzt wrote:An O5 with 20 years of service does not earn the mean US income. A US Navy O5 over 20 earns 104,000/year before allowances and additional pay.

The Mean income in the US is 36,500/year.

I am sure that you meant the "median" income is 36,500 per year. I did try to find the average income, but did not succeed; although the average taxable income for a single person or head of household is easy to find and it is in the same range as the median.
Isn't the salary of an O5 for a given number of years the same across the services (like every pay grade)?
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