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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?

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How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:07 pm

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Just thinking about the economics of the Honorverse. I believe that it was in ON BASILISK STATION, that Weber mentions that Honor Harrington's salary is about $50,000 per year (plus room and board?) and that capitol ship missiles cost $1 million. In later books Weber alludes to an SD(P) costing about as much as its missile load out so a major warship costs $10 billion. We don't have any other data on how much homes, rent, aircars and meals at nice restaurants cost.

IIRC, the population of the Manticore binary system is about 4 billion and Grayson has a population of 3 billion. Manticore might then have a GDP of $200 Trillion. Grayson was poor in HotQ so may be the GDP per capita was only $5,000 and GDP of $15 Trillion with most of that economic output devoted to food production. By AT ALL COSTS Grayson's GDP might be $40 Trillion with agriculture requiring a much smaller percentage.

Assuming Manticore devotes 10% of GDP to the military they have a budget $20 trillion. This will buy 1,000 SD(p)s per year, but the RMN has other expenses.

Grayson might devote 20% of GDP to military for a budget of $8 trillion. Grayson can buy only 400 SD(P)s per year but they too have other expenses.

We are in the ballpark.

Now the Star Empire of Manticore is acquiring extraterritorial possessions in the former Silesia as well as the Talbot quadrant. How many worlds? How many people? How much GDP now? How much GDP after Manticore invests in their infrastructure, education and technology base? How much of a military budget will Manticore have in 20 years?

Grayson has no territorial possessions. However; the GDP per capita will be restored then grow. I predict that the population will also increase as Graysons enjoy being able to procreate without fear of loosing nearly half their children. The gender imbalance will be corrected in 20 years, but in the meantime most Grayson men can afford to have Grayson ideal of 3 wives and get busy. The number of unmarried Grayson women will decrease because they along with available husbands will be wealthier. Expect some Grayson males who are wealthier or more popular to have 6 wives. Many single Grayson women might procreate solo. Total Fertility Rate of Grayson might go from 2.3 children per woman to 3 or even 4. Population could double while GDP per capita increases to near Manticoran levels.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:21 pm

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David has mentioned that the high volume of missile production has resulted in much more capable missiles costing much less than they did in 1900. They are not "cheap", but it's not linear. Given that the RMN had to be producing missiles in the scale of worldwide Toyota production Id expect significant economy.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:26 pm

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I'm also going to point out that the economics of the Honorverse are probably the weakest part of the series. The whole "we can't employ more in the military because otherwise our feminist dance gap would grow" is pretty forced. You can't really figure out what more than say 100 million do, and I'm including manufacturing, mining, shipping, space operations, finance, medicine and the military.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Daryl   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:51 am

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I never quite got the impression that Manticore's economy had its back to the wall. A simple comparison is with the UK in 1942. The Brits were melting down kitchen pots to build Spitfires, rationing food and clothing, building vegetable gardens, few private vehicles on the road, and such.
When the very existence of your country is at stake, and your personal family's safety is threatened you'd expect a stronger effort. Admittedly the story was told from the viewpoint of the privileged, but the desperation wasn't there.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:29 am

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Daryl wrote:I never quite got the impression that Manticore's economy had its back to the wall. A simple comparison is with the UK in 1942. The Brits were melting down kitchen pots to build Spitfires, rationing food and clothing, building vegetable gardens, few private vehicles on the road, and such.
When the very existence of your country is at stake, and your personal family's safety is threatened you'd expect a stronger effort. Admittedly the story was told from the viewpoint of the privileged, but the desperation wasn't there.

Tha s true. I mentioned that to David wh my ‘Manticore is at the mall’ comment a few years ago.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by drothgery   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:30 pm

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Daryl wrote:When the very existence of your country is at stake, and your personal family's safety is threatened you'd expect a stronger effort. Admittedly the story was told from the viewpoint of the privileged, but the desperation wasn't there.

Though I read some comments that readers thought it seemed like Haven was digging deeper than Manticore, and I was like... the only polity in the Honorverse we know about with a greater percentage of its population under arms than Manticore is Grayson. No one else even close. Haven is orders of magnitude less.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by KBaggy   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:53 pm

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Daryl wrote:I never quite got the impression that Manticore's economy had its back to the wall. A simple comparison is with the UK in 1942. The Brits were melting down kitchen pots to build Spitfires, rationing food and clothing, building vegetable gardens, few private vehicles on the road, and such.
When the very existence of your country is at stake, and your personal family's safety is threatened you'd expect a stronger effort. Admittedly the story was told from the viewpoint of the privileged, but the desperation wasn't there.


As I remember the melting down of pots, and other metal items was mostly propaganda and most of the metal actually just dumped.

Food rationing was introduced as the farmland in the UK was not able to support the population and the Germans where able to threaten the external supply lines. This does not apply to Manticore's food supply. The same is true for petrol.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Maldorian   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:58 pm

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Don´t forget, that Manticore is the biggest traffic spot in the Honorverse. The Junction act as the biggest Harbour in the whole honorverse. The ships are not only crossing the Junction, they also use the Warehouses at the junction for Container exchange. For example: A ship could come from Trevor´s star and drop some containers with the target behind Beowulf and leave at the Basilisk whormehole. Another ship take the container and cross the Beowulf whormhole.

All the guiding at the Junction and all the Freight exchange should keep a lot of people employed.

Also, Manticore has still one of the biggest Trade Fleet. With the end of the war with the league, they shall go back to work.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by Brigade XO   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:35 pm

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Talking about the Junction as the largest harbor in the Honorverse brings up the question of just how far away from the Junction (the Junction itself, the navigational restrictions for the variouis travel lanes and approches, Astro Control, the Junction Forts) and then.....where are the warehouse stations, repair areas, transfer stations for people either going into the Manticore System or only transfering from one starship to another to head for another Terminus?

Along with that, just how much is security/defence is afforded to all that asemblage of warehousing/yard facilities and transient facilities? There have got to be a fair amount of traffic using the Junction as a drop point, not just continuing on to a destimation beyond Manticore and traffic into the Binary System.
That is going to be a lot of capital out there servicing the traffic through and to the Junction. By the end of the was with the SL there has got to be some provision for security and defense of all that nominally civilian facilities and the traffic that goes along with it.
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Re: How big will the Star Empire of Manticore's economy be?
Post by kzt   » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:30 pm

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Maldorian wrote:Don´t forget, that Manticore is the biggest traffic spot in the Honorverse. The Junction act as the biggest Harbour in the whole honorverse. The ships are not only crossing the Junction, they also use the Warehouses at the junction for Container exchange. For example: A ship could come from Trevor´s star and drop some containers with the target behind Beowulf and leave at the Basilisk whormehole. Another ship take the container and cross the Beowulf whormhole.

All the guiding at the Junction and all the Freight exchange should keep a lot of people employed.

Also, Manticore has still one of the biggest Trade Fleet. With the end of the war with the league, they shall go back to work.

It’s a good deal. Particularly after someone drops a container of lithium hydroxide for ‘later pickup’.
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