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Remaining holes in SLN intel

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Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:56 am

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The continued holes in SLN intel is appalling. Shall we help them out?

SoV wrote:He would have been much happier if that evidence had been conclusive and not simply the best available. Unfortunately, he had a dearth of combat reports from ships which had faced the Manticorans in combat, since none of those ships had returned to base to make the aforesaid reports. They did have Admiral Liam Pyun’s report from Zunker, though, and the survivors of the Saltash debacle seemed to back Pyun’s account, although no hard sensor data had been available to support their account of events. For that matter, the limited information from Spindle pointed in the same direction. And if Pyun’s report was accurate, the Manties had launched their “demonstration salvo” at thirty million kilometers.

snip

If we run into one of those damned pod-laying wallers of theirs, we’re going to get hammered with one hell of a lot more damage per hit than they are. But against cruisers and destroyers, we should be able to go toe-to-toe if we have a big enough advantage in tubes.

snip

Vangelis found it difficult to credit the missile velocities which had been reported, although he couldn’t quite decide whether that was because they seemed so ridiculous they couldn’t be true or because he so desperately wanted them not to be. If they were true, he was none to confident the software tweaks would be enough, although at least the computers weren’t likely to simply reject the solutions because they were so far outside the programmers’ assumptions.

According to a friend of his in Fleet Acquisitions, simulations at System Development had confirmed Keeley O’Cleary’s contention that the missile-defense systems aboard Sandra Crandall’s ships had done just that. And according to the same friend, Admiral Polydorou had carried out those simulations—under protest, since they were so “obviously unnecessary”—only at the direct orders of Fleet Admiral Kingsford when he replaced Rajampet Rajani as CNO.

Vangelis found it difficult to decide which of those reports were more depressing.

“Five hundred and eighty gravities sounds to me like they’re pushing it pretty hard,” the chief of staff said. “Dropping the freighter probably wouldn’t help much.”

“Probably not enough for them to overhaul us, no, Sir,” Levine agreed. “But if the wilder reports we’ve had are accurate, they should easily hit six hundred or even six-fifty. In fact, even that would be fairly low for Manties.”

“Low?” Yountz’ eyebrows rose, and Levine shrugged irritably.
“I did say they were ‘wilder reports,’ Sir. But according to the only Solarian report we have from New Tuscany, their battlecruisers were pulling over six-ten before they took out Jean Bart. And Admiral O’Cleary’s debrief after Spindle suggests the same sort of accelerations.”

“The report from New Tuscany’s hardly conclusive. And with all due respect,” Yountz didn’t sound particularly respectful, “there’s bound to be some CYA in Keeley O’Cleary’s debrief. I’d take anything coming out of Spindle with a grain of salt.”

“Which, unless the term ‘wilder reports’ means something different to you than it does to me, is precisely what Bradley just did,” Tamaguchi pointed out with an edge of frost. “He also brought it to our attention, however…which is precisely what he was supposed to do.”

“I know, Sir. And I didn’t mean to sound like I was biting your head off, Brad.” Yountz smiled crookedly at the ops officer. “I just find it a teeny bit hard to accept that a Manty battlecruiser can out-accelerate one of our destroyers. I’ll grant ONI’s badly underestimated their capabilities, but that’s still a mighty steep leap in compensator tech.”


.
Last edited by cthia on Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Brigade XO   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:56 am

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Not only to a great many of the SLN ONI personel have difficulty beleiving what little reporting (accuarate as it turns out but they have vast doubts about that) but the various departments in the Government AND the Navy are -by design and custom- not providing that much of what they have AND they are esentialy riddled with Alignment agents.
There is the not so minor problem that Kingsford is now being fed very bad suggestions by his new chief analyst who is a Malingnemt Alpha-line.

Commerce raiding with FF and various BF light units up through BC's is going to be a great way to devastate the majority of the SLN light units which are what the League is going to need to -at least attempt to- cover the League systems and closest or at more important non-League worlds against the chaos that is comming. SD's are massive, powerful and SLOW. Sure, they are impressive and can smash every bit of structure in a system including an inhabited plane. But, so can a DD or a BC, it's just a question of scale. There are a lot of systems that the SL will need to be covering and their navy is going to get a lot smaller in terms of hypercapable warships that can do that covering or at least attempt to defend (or intimidate) those systems.
Yes, commercie raiding will hurt Manticore, Haven (and a lot of other Star Nations) plus cost them warships along with loss of merchant shipping and destroyed infrastructure, but from our points of view as readers, this is going to accelerate the bleeding of SLN ships and crews including those best or at least most experienced in actual fighting.

The "not invented here" blinders are still firmly on and to this point, both Manticore and Haven have been able to keep most of the hard sensor data from the SLN. So far, SLN ONI is getting so snookered from deliberate manipulations on the inside that it's only potential path to providing accuarate analysis and good (non-poisoned) recommendations appears to be from small groups who have to practically commit treason to talk to one another and share information.

The phrase "This isn't going to end well" comes to mind.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by phillies   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:25 pm

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There appears to have been a minor computer glitch here. The first item in the thread, by "Cthia", quotes a prior comment, by "Sov". That prior quote must me from some other thread. Where?

cthia wrote:The continued holes in SLN intel is appalling. Shall we help them out?

Sov wrote:He would have been much happier if that evidence had been conclusive and not simply the best available. Unfortunately, he had a dearth of combat reports from ships which had faced the Manticorans in combat, since none of those ships had returned to base to make the aforesaid reports. They did have Admiral Liam Pyun’s report from Zunker, though, and the survivors of the Saltash debacle seemed to back Pyun’s account, although no hard sensor data had been available to support their account of events. For that matter, the limited information from Spindle pointed in the same direction. And if Pyun’s report was accurate, the Manties had launched their “demonstration salvo” at thirty million kilometers.

snip

If we run into one of those damned pod-laying wallers of theirs, we’re going to get hammered with one hell of a lot more damage per hit than they are. But against cruisers and destroyers, we should be able to go toe-to-toe if we have a big enough advantage in tubes.

snip

Vangelis found it difficult to credit the missile velocities which had been reported, although he couldn’t quite decide whether that was because they seemed so ridiculous they couldn’t be true or because he so desperately wanted them not to be. If they were true, he was none to confident the software tweaks would be enough, although at least the computers weren’t likely to simply reject the solutions because they were so far outside the programmers’ assumptions.

According to a friend of his in Fleet Acquisitions, simulations at System Development had confirmed Keeley O’Cleary’s contention that the missile-defense systems aboard Sandra Crandall’s ships had done just that. And according to the same friend, Admiral Polydorou had carried out those simulations—under protest, since they were so “obviously unnecessary”—only at the direct orders of Fleet Admiral Kingsford when he replaced Rajampet Rajani as CNO.

Vangelis found it difficult to decide which of those reports were more depressing.

“Five hundred and eighty gravities sounds to me like they’re pushing it pretty hard,” the chief of staff said. “Dropping the freighter probably wouldn’t help much.”

“Probably not enough for them to overhaul us, no, Sir,” Levine agreed. “But if the wilder reports we’ve had are accurate, they should easily hit six hundred or even six-fifty. In fact, even that would be fairly low for Manties.”

“Low?” Yountz’ eyebrows rose, and Levine shrugged irritably.
“I did say they were ‘wilder reports,’ Sir. But according to the only Solarian report we have from New Tuscany, their battlecruisers were pulling over six-ten before they took out Jean Bart. And Admiral O’Cleary’s debrief after Spindle suggests the same sort of accelerations.”

“The report from New Tuscany’s hardly conclusive. And with all due respect,” Yountz didn’t sound particularly respectful, “there’s bound to be some CYA in Keeley O’Cleary’s debrief. I’d take anything coming out of Spindle with a grain of salt.”

“Which, unless the term ‘wilder reports’ means something different to you than it does to me, is precisely what Bradley just did,” Tamaguchi pointed out with an edge of frost. “He also brought it to our attention, however…which is precisely what he was supposed to do.”

“I know, Sir. And I didn’t mean to sound like I was biting your head off, Brad.” Yountz smiled crookedly at the ops officer. “I just find it a teeny bit hard to accept that a Manty battlecruiser can out-accelerate one of our destroyers. I’ll grant ONI’s badly underestimated their capabilities, but that’s still a mighty steep leap in compensator tech.”
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Eagleeye   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:48 pm

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phillies wrote:There appears to have been a minor computer glitch here. The first item in the thread, by "Cthia", quotes a prior comment, by "Sov". That prior quote must me from some other thread. Where?


No glitch. SoV equals to "Shadow of Victory", and Cthia quoted a part of chapter 70, that you find on pages 662 and 663 in the hardcover-edition, to make his point.
Last edited by Eagleeye on Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by cthia   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:53 pm

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Eagleeye wrote:
phillies wrote:There appears to have been a minor computer glitch here. The first item in the thread, by "Cthia", quotes a prior comment, by "Sov". That prior quote must me from some other thread. Where?


No glitch. SoV stands for "Shadow of Victory", and Cthia quoted a part of chapter 70, that you find on pages 662 and 663 in the hardcover-edition, to make his point.

Technically he is correct, as the v was not capitalized as it should be. It has been corrected. SoV instead of Sov. Sov (lacking the capital "V") may be confused with a poster. My apologies to you both. And all.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by pnakasone   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 2:16 pm

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The SLN ONI did not even have even the simplest Intel asset of someone just picking up the newspapers and scientific publications of Manticore(or any GA members)to send back for analysis. You can find out a lot of secrets by what is being published and what is not being published.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by Eagleeye   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:05 pm

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pnakasone wrote:The SLN ONI did not even have even the simplest Intel asset of someone just picking up the newspapers and scientific publications of Manticore(or any GA members)to send back for analysis. You can find out a lot of secrets by what is being published and what is not being published.


But there had to be a Solarian League embassy at Manticore. That is, at least, my reading of these lines from Chapter 5 of A rising thunder:

A rising Thunder wrote:“Yes. It’s unfortunately true that public opinion in the Star Empire at this particular moment is very . . . exercised where the Solarian League is concerned. I’m sure you’ve had reports from your own ambassadors and attachés in the Star Empire about demonstrations, even some minor vandalism, I’m afraid. It’s all very sad, but understandable, I suppose.”


So, the League had direct access to news reports published in Manticore. Or, they had it before Filareta came calling and Manticores official Declaration of War against the League. If they really ignored that source of information ...
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by kzt   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 3:19 pm

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Eagleeye wrote:But there had to be a Solarian League embassy at Manticore. That is, at least, my reading of these lines from Chapter 5 of A rising thunder:

No, it was pointed out in an earlier book that the SL did not have an embassy or ambassador to the SKM. Various member systems of the SL apparently did, but the SL itself did not. It's part of the neobarb issue.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by ldwechsler   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:27 pm

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kzt wrote:
Eagleeye wrote:But there had to be a Solarian League embassy at Manticore. That is, at least, my reading of these lines from Chapter 5 of A rising thunder:

No, it was pointed out in an earlier book that the SL did not have an embassy or ambassador to the SKM. Various member systems of the SL apparently did, but the SL itself did not. It's part of the neobarb issue.


It seems clear that MAlign was responsible for a lot of that. There was info available on weapons. A few people had spotted early descriptions. But it looks like there was a concerted effort NOT to look.

A further problem was the inability to spread information quickly. Months after information on Crandall's disaster on Spindle was available on Earth, people in many areas who were in the navy had no idea of what they learned.
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Re: Remaining holes in SLN intel
Post by drinksmuchcoffee   » Sat Dec 30, 2017 6:25 pm

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In fairness to the SLN, Manticore was very good at hiding their tech advances in plain sight. In HoS there is mention about this technique with respect to the Star Knight class CA. If I recall, the first Medusas (SD(P)s) were carried on the books as follow-ons to the Gryphon SDs.

You can go a long ways with this approach. For a long time in the States cryptography wasn't generally "classified" but finding nuts-and-bolts information on how to actually implement crypto systems was pretty challenging. Similarly, in the 80's if you were doing anything fancy with signal processing (especially if you were making custom hardware to do it) you would be discreetly checked out, usually by people from the Department of Commerce.
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