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Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak

"Hell's Gate" and "Hell Hath No Fury", by David, Linda Evans, and Joelle Presby, take the clash of science and magic to a whole new dimension...join us in a friendly discussion of this engrossing series!
Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Mil-tech bard   » Sat Oct 03, 2015 9:18 am

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A simple observation regards Mil Gurthak's plotting abilities -- He can't count, and even when he can, he is a victim of events, time and distance.

This is a list of on-screen characters involved with Charlie Company, Andaran Scouts, Mul Gurthak seems to be referring to as three survivors other than Jasak and vos Hoven.


Jasak Olderhan -- Fallen Timbers
vos Hoven -- Fallen Timbers
Gadrial -- Fallen Timbers
Sendahli -- Fallen Timbers
Chief Sword Threbuch -- Fallen Timbers, Hell's Gate Portal
Hummer Handler Iggar "Iggy" Shulthan -- Fallen Timbers, Hell's Gate Portal
Andaran Brother-in-Law, Sword ? -- Fallen Timbers, Hell's Gate Portal
Hadigm Thalmayr -- Fallen timbers, Hell's Gate Portal

Tentative conclusions:

1. Mul Gurthak has completely discounted Gadrial. (AKA Mul Gurthak won't count people he hates and despises)

2. While as a run away garthan, Sendahli is reachable by Mythalan's. That Mul Gurthak views Chief Sword Threbuch as either kill-able, or has a hostage the Council of 12 can reach is...flawed. While Chief Sword Threbuch is with Jasak, his is as untouchable as Jasak. And given that the Andaran Scouts are Duke Olderhan's personal house troops, even killing Chief Sword Threbuch with a Council of 12 heart attack spell is going to be a very marginal, high risk of tracing possibility, given the Duke's House security. See: "Jasak is Untouchable"

3. Mul Gurthak was a victim of events, time and distance. The status Thalmayr, the Sword B-I-L, and anyone else recaptured when the Arcanian military over ran every Sharonanan Fort between Ft. Salby and Hell's Gate had not reached Mul Gurthak at that point in his plotting. This is important because any move Mul Gurthak makes to get control of, or to suborn, those people is going to run into Two Thousand Harshu and One Thousand Klayerman's suspicions simply based on Mul Gurthak playing his "written orders" game with Harshu.

The foreshadowing points to Mul Gurthak's plot blowing up at some point.

Whether this will also blow the Mythalan Council of 12's cover is an interesting question as the Mythalan shakira caste is a direct democracy and the Council is acting in direct opposition to the generations old expressed democratic will of the shakira caste.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by brnicholas   » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:21 am

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I agree Mul Gurthak is going to have a lot of problems holding his plot together. The people Mil-Tech bard has mentioned are definitely one loose end and yes, not counting Gadrial is really stupid. A loose end I noticed but haven't seen mentioned yet is the recon crystal that was taken to all the negotiating sessions on the hat of the head of Skirvon's "ceremonial" guard. I don't see any reason that could have been used to justify turning it off during the negotiations. Which makes it very likely that somewhere or other in the AEF's records there is a recording of everything that was actually said in those negotiations. If Harshu is suspicious enough to check the reports Skirvon gave him against those records Mul Gurthak is going to have another problem.

One thing that may explain the number of such loose ends hanging around is that Mul Gurthak is an amateur. He has been an agent for a while but I think that in the past he has always been carrying out, or at most improvising from, plans his superiors provided. This time he is planning for himself from scratch, and he hasn't had the training or experience he needs for that.

Nicholas
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by n7axw   » Sat Oct 03, 2015 12:06 pm

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brnicholas wrote:I agree Mul Gurthak is going to have a lot of problems holding his plot together. The people Mil-Tech bard has mentioned are definitely one loose end and yes, not counting Gadrial is really stupid. A loose end I noticed but haven't seen mentioned yet is the recon crystal that was taken to all the negotiating sessions on the hat of the head of Skirvon's "ceremonial" guard. I don't see any reason that could have been used to justify turning it off during the negotiations. Which makes it very likely that somewhere or other in the AEF's records there is a recording of everything that was actually said in those negotiations. If Harshu is suspicious enough to check the reports Skirvon gave him against those records Mul Gurthak is going to have another problem.

One thing that may explain the number of such loose ends hanging around is that Mul Gurthak is an amateur. He has been an agent for a while but I think that in the past he has always been carrying out, or at most improvising from, plans his superiors provided. This time he is planning for himself from scratch, and he hasn't had the training or experience he needs for that.

Nicholas


Hummm... I think you are right...but do you remember that old saw about the best swordsman in the world fearing the worst swordsman in the world? Well, Gurthak is the worst swordsman in the world...you never know what the fool will do next.

Right now we are under the sign of chaos... with the situation being highly unpredictable, both in terms of opportunity and otential disaster.

Still, I think you have pointed out the most likely probabilities.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Howard T. Map-addict   » Sat Oct 03, 2015 1:03 pm

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Yes, very likely.

After all,
mul Gurthak, who sees everyone else as a puppet,
is himself a pawn in the hands of his true masters,
and does everything that they say, however illogical
or out-of-character it is for him.
His True Masters' initials: DW, JE, JP.

HTM

PeterZ wrote:All this agreeing goin' on around here means just one thing.....We are all wrong.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Louis R   » Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:11 pm

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And thereby hangs a tale.

You will recall that mul Gurthak tells us that the Council of 12 existed centuries before the shakira cravenly rolled on their backs for the rest of Arcana to loot and demean.

Ummm, Why?

Are all shakira equals, but some shakira more equal than others? Or at least think they are? And how democratic are those shakira, anyway?

Mil-tech bard wrote:< snip >

Whether this will also blow the Mythalan Council of 12's cover is an interesting question as the Mythalan shakira caste is a direct democracy and the Council is acting in direct opposition to the generations old expressed democratic will of the shakira caste.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Mil-tech bard   » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:02 am

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Reading this, I disagree --


But we know that truth spells are limited. They check the truth of the statement, nothing more. Note that chan Tergis managed truthfully tell Neshok "I am the only voice Regiment-Captain Velvelig has" without mentioning Syrail, the child voice he was teaching when he was specifically asked about voices "here or in the local settlements." Vos Hoven can't flat out lie, but if (and this is a big if) he is smart enough to present the truth correctly he ought to be able to portray Jasak as having screwed up royally because he was a vengeance mad glory hound and now as twisting the truth to cover his ass.


What you are seeing is a limitation of the interrogator as opposed to the truth spell.

Nesok's goal here was the immediate elimination of that fort's voice chain link.

Chan Tergis' answer played to that immediate goal, and Nesok's blood lust, over Nesok's other goal of policing up all the local Voices. As Voice chan Tergis could pick up on all of that.

You will note that Nesok's interrogations of other Sharonan prisoners identified Syrail and sent a unicorn cavalry detachment to kill him.

The issue people are missing here is that voice talents make up 1/5 of all talents.

Talents make up a significant percentage of the Sharonana population.

There are two points that arise from that.

One we have worried over a lot, the Voice transmission from Syrail that is sure to happen and its effects on Sharonan attitudes.

The second, which we have lightly touched, are the implications for additional Voices behind Arcanian lines. We have touched on the "Coast watcher" possibilities of the Corporate cartel exploration teams. We haven't looked at the flip side.

The Arcanians are not going to stop looking for and killing Voices like Syrail in the universes they have over run.

As with Syrail, their interrogations will turn up the additional corporate cartel exploration teams. And they will be out hunting them to eliminate those suspected Voices.

These little wars of hunting and patrolling will be mainly "off-stage", but they will be uncovered and examined by wiffer and tracer talent Sharonan military intelligence during the Sharonan counter-offensive.

The policy implications of _that_ on top of Syrail's Voice transmission of his father's and chan Tergis' murder for the Sharonan Emperor-elect are radioactive.

He would be facing a powerful, irrational and untrustworthy foe that is committing genocide against a large class of Sharonan civilian population including its youngest children.

The implications, considering the Calirath House oath, are very, very, bloody.

Minimally every captured Arcanian military member will be interrogated by a lie detecting talent, those involved in hunting Voices will be identified. Then they will be tried and executed for same.

And this leaves out the torture and execution of Sharonan military prisoners.

Some additional, larger level of "Arcanian military class" retaliatory execution is also going to be laid on simply to keep Sharonan troops from taking a US Marine in 1944 attitude towards taking Arcanian prisoners.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:22 am

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Your original claim was that testimony under truth spell from Jasek and his allies would prove Jasek innocent so convincing people Jasek was lying to cover his ass wouldn't work. I answered that truth spells permit the manipulation of the answer to mislead citing chan Tergis as an example. You reply saying the misleading statement passed because Neshok was incompetent. I agree, but if an incompetent or corrupt questioner can let misleading answers pass under truth spell why does that make what I have speculated that the Mythalan plan unworkable? We don't know a thing about Arcanan court marital procedures so we can't say who gets to ask questions or what questions they get to ask. It still seems workable to produce testimony that produces conflicting interpretations of Jasek's behavior and convince people vos Hoven's version is more accurate and Jasek is deliberately trying to mislead to cover his ass, especially if the person asking questions is also working for the Group of 12.

For the rest of your post, I agree, although Don's reminder that things are so chaotic right now that almost anything can happen applies here too.

Nicholas

Mil-tech bard wrote:Reading this, I disagree --


But we know that truth spells are limited. They check the truth of the statement, nothing more. Note that chan Tergis managed truthfully tell Neshok "I am the only voice Regiment-Captain Velvelig has" without mentioning Syrail, the child voice he was teaching when he was specifically asked about voices "here or in the local settlements." Vos Hoven can't flat out lie, but if (and this is a big if) he is smart enough to present the truth correctly he ought to be able to portray Jasak as having screwed up royally because he was a vengeance mad glory hound and now as twisting the truth to cover his ass.


What you are seeing is a limitation of the interrogator as opposed to the truth spell.

Nesok's goal here was the immediate elimination of that fort's voice chain link.

Chan Tergis' answer played to that immediate goal, and Nesok's blood lust, over Nesok's other goal of policing up all the local Voices. As Voice chan Tergis could pick up on all of that.

You will note that Nesok's interrogations of other Sharonan prisoners identified Syrail and sent a unicorn cavalry detachment to kill him.

The issue people are missing here is that voice talents make up 1/5 of all talents.

Talents make up a significant percentage of the Sharonana population.

There are two points that arise from that.

One we have worried over a lot, the Voice transmission from Syrail that is sure to happen and its effects on Sharonan attitudes.

The second, which we have lightly touched, are the implications for additional Voices behind Arcanian lines. We have touched on the "Coast watcher" possibilities of the Corporate cartel exploration teams. We haven't looked at the flip side.

The Arcanians are not going to stop looking for and killing Voices like Syrail in the universes they have over run.

...snipped....
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:33 am

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My speculation regarding the Council of 12 is that they started as a very conservative political party and became a secret conspiracy when they couldn't convince people to agree with them.

The direct democracy quote is interesting because it says that the Mythalans have few enough voters that it works. Direct democracy only works when there are few enough voters they can all have a meeting and argue things out. I think that the cap is in the thousands.

Yet the Mythalans appear to have had a chance at winning the portal wars. We don't know what the population of Arcana was at the time but I can't see less then a hundred million, especially given that genetically engineered crops and dragon transport were old technology by that time. To have a shot at winning Mythal must have had at least ten percent of that, so ten million. We know twenty percent are gifted so that gives two million Shakira. I suspect all these numbers are much too low but that is way to many for any form of direct democracy.

My expectation is that the only actual voters in the Mythalan system are the caste lords. There is a passing statement about vos Hoven being the "the nephew of a caste lord—one of the hundred or so most powerful men in Mythal" (Hell's Gate Chapter 20). Even if that is an understatement those are the numbers that make direct democracy workable.

Nicholas

Louis R wrote:And thereby hangs a tale.

You will recall that mul Gurthak tells us that the Council of 12 existed centuries before the shakira cravenly rolled on their backs for the rest of Arcana to loot and demean.

Ummm, Why?

Are all shakira equals, but some shakira more equal than others? Or at least think they are? And how democratic are those shakira, anyway?

Mil-tech bard wrote:< snip >

Whether this will also blow the Mythalan Council of 12's cover is an interesting question as the Mythalan shakira caste is a direct democracy and the Council is acting in direct opposition to the generations old expressed democratic will of the shakira caste.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Louis R   » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:35 pm

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But what were they conspiring for, or against? Are they selected by, and from the caste lords? If so, how do they ensure that nobody who might spill the beans becomes a caste lord? If not, how do they manage to hide from the 100 or so most powerful men in Mythal? Especially when they're busy squirreling away WMD those lords have agreed to destroy? The name itself creates echos of Venice's Council of Ten, but, while the membership was secret, the existence of the Council itself was not. Mythal is clearly a lot more complex that it looks.

The effective limit on direct democracy is in the high 4 figures, or maybe low 5 figures. Athens' radical democracy was conducted quite effectively with, at its height, somewhere between 8,000 and 10,000 citizens, although it was always dominated by a relatively small number of the most effective orators. And therefore dependent on their competence and willingness to at least ensure that their personal interests aligned with the state's. The practice of ostracism was actually a great help in that regard, even if not perfect.

Athen's democracy was peculiar in that every citizen, regardless of wealth, had not just full voting rights but the right to hold public office [and be paid for doing so, which is what makes the right meaningful] - that's why it was _radical_ democracy. Or, as most of the rest of Greece viewed it, way, way overboard. It was more usual for full citizenship to be limited to the hoplite class, with actual office holders drawn from the two superior classes [or even only the highest of the propertied classes, in the real oligarchies]. We can consider the Mythalan system to be similar: to vote in the Assembly, you have to be Shakira, male, wealthy and a full magister/magistron. A set of conditions that could easily limit the voting population to less than one in fifty even of the Shakira.

brnicholas wrote:My speculation regarding the Council of 12 is that they started as a very conservative political party and became a secret conspiracy when they couldn't convince people to agree with them.

The direct democracy quote is interesting because it says that the Mythalans have few enough voters that it works. Direct democracy only works when there are few enough voters they can all have a meeting and argue things out. I think that the cap is in the thousands.

Yet the Mythalans appear to have had a chance at winning the portal wars. We don't know what the population of Arcana was at the time but I can't see less then a hundred million, especially given that genetically engineered crops and dragon transport were old technology by that time. To have a shot at winning Mythal must have had at least ten percent of that, so ten million. We know twenty percent are gifted so that gives two million Shakira. I suspect all these numbers are much too low but that is way to many for any form of direct democracy.

My expectation is that the only actual voters in the Mythalan system are the caste lords. There is a passing statement about vos Hoven being the "the nephew of a caste lord—one of the hundred or so most powerful men in Mythal" (Hell's Gate Chapter 20). Even if that is an understatement those are the numbers that make direct democracy workable.

Nicholas

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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Oct 07, 2015 3:18 pm

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My speculation is that the Group of 12 is a group of caste lords conspiring against their fellow caste lords. Their goal being to ensure that the political policies they believe are right are followed. They manage to hide because they are caste lords and have near absolute authority over their clans. There is nothing explicit but I read this statement that vos Hoven's dishonorable discharge would result in "the sort of disgrace no shakira caste lord would tolerate in a member of his clan" (Hell's Gate, Chapter 20) in combination with mul Gurthak's threat to make vos Hoven commit suicide as implying that a caste lord can order member of his clan to suicide. The members of the Group of 12 having that type of power over some Shakira is also implied by the fact that mul Gurthak was trained from childhood for his role.

Nicholas

Louis R wrote:But what were they conspiring for, or against? Are they selected by, and from the caste lords? If so, how do they ensure that nobody who might spill the beans becomes a caste lord? If not, how do they manage to hide from the 100 or so most powerful men in Mythal? Especially when they're busy squirreling away WMD those lords have agreed to destroy? The name itself creates echos of Venice's Council of Ten, but, while the membership was secret, the existence of the Council itself was not. Mythal is clearly a lot more complex that it looks.

...snipped...

brnicholas wrote:My speculation regarding the Council of 12 is that they started as a very conservative political party and became a secret conspiracy when they couldn't convince people to agree with them.

The direct democracy quote is interesting because it says that the Mythalans have few enough voters that it works. Direct democracy only works when there are few enough voters they can all have a meeting and argue things out. I think that the cap is in the thousands.

Yet the Mythalans appear to have had a chance at winning the portal wars. We don't know what the population of Arcana was at the time but I can't see less then a hundred million, especially given that genetically engineered crops and dragon transport were old technology by that time. To have a shot at winning Mythal must have had at least ten percent of that, so ten million. We know twenty percent are gifted so that gives two million Shakira. I suspect all these numbers are much too low but that is way to many for any form of direct democracy.

My expectation is that the only actual voters in the Mythalan system are the caste lords. There is a passing statement about vos Hoven being the "the nephew of a caste lord—one of the hundred or so most powerful men in Mythal" (Hell's Gate Chapter 20). Even if that is an understatement those are the numbers that make direct democracy workable.

Nicholas

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