cthia wrote:SWM wrote:Zero probability. If this mysterious group does come out of nowhere to offer that level of assistance, it will prove to the Solarian leadership that Manticore has been telling the truth all along.
Which would mean absolutely nothing to either the League or the MAlign if the GA would fall, for neither would have anyone to answer to. Problem solved for them both.
And the MAlign sure wouldn't care what either one of them knew so long as there's no GA.
What everyone is proposing, is that both the League and MAlign simply sit around twiddling their thumbs until hell comes aknocking and all they worked so hard for falls. Obviously the MAlign are developing the Lennys for a reason, and indeed are planning to act. At some point. I'm only suggesting that they expedite their timeline, as Haven did.
And that the enemy of your enemy, is your friend.
Given that the Alignment has been set on the destruction of the Solarian League since long before Haven or Manticore were problems, a plan that preserves the League is not part of the bigger scheme. The point isn't to play kingmaker here between the League and GA - the point is to destroy them - particularly the League.
You're making the Alignment out as if it's got the GA in its sights and the League is just a tool, and therefore a possible ally. It's not. It's the primary target. It always has been. And until most of human civilization is no longer under its aegis, it will continue to be. The Alignment needs its wolves to keep taking down the bison. It needs to remain in the shadows so the League does not suspect it has - or that it even can have - a mortal enemy until it is dead. After that, any other bit players (like Manticore, or Haven, or (oops!) the two of them allied) can be scratched off the map as needed.
What the Alignment can do is stay hidden, help Manticore along with the League's destruction, and work to insure that neither it nor Haven are nuclei for a stable order that the Alignment does not control well enough to bring about Detweiler's vision. The biggest priority there, rationally, is staying hidden. Stay hidden, let Manticore fall on its face with these silly stories about a centuries-long conspiracy, let Manticore topple the League, but compromise their ability to be a reconstructive force. This awful alliance with Haven really has to go, for instance - maybe after a little more kicking the League to bits though.
But if they don't stay hidden, the jig is up. Detweiler's vision would remain the least popular political movement ever, and they wouldn't be in the shadows to make it happen slowly in the long term. They won't have the force to handle the GA - or the League, or the Andermani, maybe not even Erewhon - openly, now or in the foreseeable future. IF they're revealed, the League goes from staggered patsy to awakened giant and could patch things up well enough with Manticore. (And Manticore could actually buy that as a basis for peace - everything would be blamed by all parties on the Alignment, so the Solarian thirst for revenge, its wealth, its R&D establishment, would not be aimed at the SEM but instead at the Alignment.)
They've built the Lenny D's for a reason, yes. There's no guarantee it's still valid, of course. Originally, they were meant for Oyster Bay, to eliminate the warmaking ability of Haven and Manticore - taking down the wolves after they're done with the bison. But they moved up Oyster Bay while the bison lived; they only hit one of the two parties; they didn't eliminate that warmaking ability.... As much as it hurt Manticore, it bit the Alignment on the butt badly, especially when it gave Manticore the impetus and Haven the opening for a peace agreement, and an alliance once the Alignment was revealed to them.
What they are supposed to use them for now? It's a good question. There may not be a good answer. One guess - back to the original plan, use them to punch out Haven and Manticore for real this time, if they could get away with it. They can't right now.
If they can manufacture some sort of story Sollies (or ex-Sollies) would believe for some other party capable of that, then they could blame that party. Maybe manufacture some rogue interstellar with more capability than anyone had guessed and a grudge for Manticore - ooo, maybe Manpower did it! With that fairy tale, their mouthpieces could concede that the GA was partly right all along, but it was just that Manpower itself and its associated companies were a lot crazier and a lot more powerful than anyone had guessed. That last gasp attack on Haven and Manticore - complete with Eridani violations - was clearly the result of some disturbed slavers. It's another pity it happened after the League was thoroughly discredited. Someone should hunt those monsters down and kill them. Our new star nation - we call it the Renaissance Factor - will assume that grave duty. No need to thank us....
