Official HFQ Snippet #10

chickladoria wrote:If central Alaska is any guide, he should be able to move 6 to 10 miles a day on average. This allows for 'ice fog', and days of blowing snow (figure 1 day out 3), I'm not concerned about blizzards, because winter is generally too dry for significant precipitation in inland arctic areas.

I guess that BGV and his men will enjoy crisp star covered skies, and the northern lights.

Perhaps someone with a map can check: Is there a river or canal he can use as a highway for a large segment of this? "Dead flat" means a much easier march, and 'flat with low walls" mean "can march when visibility is seriously defective". Of course, your scouting has to be very good.

XofDallas wrote:Especially if BGV can mount mortar attacks on the AoG's shelters in each town, why not do just that, and leave a blocking force?

BGV's force is too big for a raiding force and not big enough for a siege force. It's mobile enough to fall back on a raiding strategy, but it seems sized for a combat force to take on the AoG in adverse conditions where BGV has an enormous tech advantage over and above the surprise factor.

Weird Harold wrote:BGV's force is too big for a raiding force and not big enough for a siege force. It's mobile enough to fall back on a raiding strategy, but it seems sized for a combat force to take on the AoG in adverse conditions where BGV has an enormous tech advantage over and above the surprise factor.

Sun Tzu wrote:Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

And, let's face it, BGV has read Master Sun by now.

We've got "west of Allyntyn" and "still east of the Meirstrom Mountains" (the sun sets to the south-west when you're way north, and the sun is setting behind the Meirstrom mountains in snippet #9.) Plus the troops have been marching for "several five-days" because they're all back in snowshoe practice. That doesn't sound like heading straight west through the Northland Gap.

My guess? Ranshair and the New Northland Canal, which was not wrecked in the canal raid. If the navy can support Spinefish Bay, they can certainly support Ranshair when the ice goes out. (If they have to wait that long, we don't know how iced up Ranshir Bay gets.)

Well, BGV is no one's fool, so he'll have figured out a way for his forces to average about 20 miles a day over about 60 days. That's the only way he can realistically have Guarnak as a goal.

He also won't want to waste a lot of time on St. Zhana, Fairkyn and Ohlahrn. Further, the New Northland Canal is too far north to be of help in getting to Guarnak.

There are three alternatives:

First, surprise attacks on each town, after first having scout snipers very quietly take out any semaphore stations close enough to see any smoke from the fires, or light from the fires after dusk. That may mean they take out any semaphore stations up to 30-40 miles west of any town they're going to attack.

If BGV goes this route, he'll want it quick, thorough and deadly, and the cities will have to be small enough that he doesn't get bogged down. He also won't want to leave any shelter or supplies behind to help out any survivors, because he definitely does not want to leave any kind of effective fighting force in his rear. The only mitigating consideration would be civilians, but they've likely been evacuated by now, or are Temple Loyalists who've been actively helping with the atrocities of the past year. I don't see either BGV or his forces being very sympathetic to any survivors' plight.

The second strategy, which I've espoused to this point, but which may be unrealistic, would be to take out the semaphore stations as indicated above, and then to mount a short mortar attack on the towns, concentrating on any buildings they can identify being used for shelter or for storage of supplies (especially clothing, food or fuel). Then, leave behind a platoon-sized force, together with a mortar and spotter squad, to: (1) interdict enemy supplies (this is not a siege. This is harassment and interdiction of enemy supplies, which has vastly different manpower, mobility and material requirements than does a siege); (2)harass the enemy by periodic shelling of enemy structures; and (3) blocking any enemy efforts to retreat west. The latter shouldn't be too hard. I'm making the assumption Wyrshym's forces are so poorly clothed that a march of 30 miles or more away from existing shelter would result in those forces freezing - especially if their supplies have been compromised by an initial surprise attack.

A third alternative would be to bypass all three towns and head straight to Guarnak, leaving the three towns to the west for a later mopping up operation. Their supply logistics would definitely be cut off in this approach, although we don't know how much reserve they will have on hand.

In all, though, I'm beginning to come around to Weird Harold's point of view that the first alternative is the best one. Given the very clear skies in winter, though, and the distance to which smoke can be seen by day and fire by night, discretely taking out the semaphore stations far west of any target city would seem essential if surprise is to be maintained.

I honestly think all you guys proposing that BGV attack Guarnak are seriously short sighted. Let's rework the underlying logic.

Assumptions:
1- Wyrshym is currently in Guarnak just as he was when the canal raid took place. That is his headquarters.
2- Guarnak is teeming with refugees eating up Wyrshym's supplies.
3- BGV has 70,000 men; 30,000 in the gap and 40,000 on the flanking maneuver.
4- Assuming the winter solstice on Safehold is at the end of November, BGV is in what would translate to mid January on Terra. Further, assuming the 10 month year winter would be 2.5 months on Safehold.
5- BGV estimates at the end of LaMA he can reach Guarnak before the thaw. That argues for a daily speed of between 16-20 miles depending on exactly where BGV was when we shared his internal monologue.
6- BGV will have a longer period before a thaw if he travels across the Northern route to Five Forks.
7- BGV is equipped to campaign in arctic conditions and the AoG is not. The lack of equipment will cause casualties if the AoG is forced into movement or battle.

If BGV targets Guarnak, he will arrive just in time for a thaw. He loses the advantage that artic conditions will give him. So, his army will be optimized for arctic conditions but has just forced battle against a fortified town in spring conditions with all the soupy mud that season brings with it. Not smart if you ask me.

If BGV targets Five Forks, he will also arrive in a spring thaw as spring is delayed slightly further North. He has to fight a smaller garrison in Five Forks and will likely face fewer rifles per soldier. Not only that but Five Forks will not be as heavily fortified. That would be an easier target to take than Guarnak.

The primary difference as I see it is the use of Winter to degrade Wyrshym's force. By targeting Five Forks, BGV forces Wyrshym to either wait for the thaw before moving towards Five Forks or move his unprepared army through the teeth of artic conditions. If he waits for the thaw, BGV has several weeks if not more to fortify his position before he has to face Wyrshym. If Wyrshym moves during Winter, he loses a big chunk of his army before he arrives at Five Forks. It is doubtful he can arrive before BGV, but even if he does his army will be severely weakened.

This analysis doesn't even take into account the refugees that Wyrshym has to look after. Does he leave them to starve in Guarnak? Will he take the along? Will enough of those desperate people leave before Wyrshym can and strip whatever food exists along the way to Five Forks? If Wyrshym does leave the refugees to the mercy of the Allies, the allies will show mercy. They will score serious points with everyone that isn't an uber TE ideologue. Hearts and minds, eh?

If Wyrshym moves in Winter and BGV's remaining force attacks the Gap, Wyrshym might well have to race a force coming up is rear. That further drives refugees into Wyrshym's way. If Wyrshym stays in Guarnak, the 30,000 soldiers coming up from Sylmahn Gap can do about as much damage as BGV's Northern force. The Southern force is better positioned to deal with casualties. Also, as the Southern force captures AoG soldiers, they can use the captured rifles to arm the newly formed formations Siddermark is gathering. Those formations can guard the POWs and garrison the captured territory.

BGV is left to move towards Five Forks and damage those garrisons he runs into. He doesn't take prisoners or fight to secure territory. He hits the garrisons he runs into with an eye to damaging housing and supplies then moves on. Once he arrives at Five Forks, he is about 1,000 miles North of Symkyns. Assuming Symkyns deals with Kaitswyrth during the Winter, he can send troops up the canals once the ice thaws. Between the iron clads coming from the passage, Symkyns canal routes and the canals from the Sylmahn gap, BGV has a plethora of supply routes.

All in all BGV should target Five Forks and avoid as many casualties as he can until he reaches his destination. Doing anything else risk to many casualties before he has to fight the GHoGatA come summer. BGV to targeting Guarnak strikes me as suboptimal.

PeterZ wrote:
Assumptions:
...
3- BGV has 70,000 men; 30,000 in the gap and 40,000 on the flanking maneuver.
...
If Wyrshym moves in Winter and BGV's remaining force attacks the Gap, Wyrshym might well have to race a force coming up is rear. That further drives refugees into Wyrshym's way. If Wyrshym stays in Guarnak, the 30,000 soldiers coming up from Sylmahn Gap can do about as much damage as BGV's Northern force. The Southern force is better positioned to deal with casualties. Also, as the Southern force captures AoG soldiers, they can use the captured rifles to arm the newly formed formations Siddermark is gathering. Those formations can guard the POWs and garrison the captured territory.

One of Baron Green Valley's goal has to to open the Sylmahn Gap/Canal and Green Cove Trace routes for the southern forces. If he moves on Five Forks and Wyrshym doesn't pull the plugs to chase him, BGV will get stranded in Five Forks without his winter warfare advantage and sandwiched between two CoGA armies.

Taking Five Forks first only accomplishes BGV's goals if it pulls the defensive blocking forces in the Sylmahn Gap and/or Green Cove trace. BGV has to directly threaten those blocking forces to guarantee that he can count on reinforcement and resupply for summer campaigning. Before he can directly threaten those blocking forces, he has to destroy or drive away Wyrshym's winter bivouac in and around Guarnak.

Weird Harold wrote:
One of Baron Green Valley's goal has to to open the Sylmahn Gap/Canal and Green Cove Trace routes for the southern forces. If he moves on Five Forks and Wyrshym doesn't pull the plugs to chase him, BGV will get stranded in Five Forks without his winter warfare advantage and sandwiched between two CoGA armies.

Taking Five Forks first only accomplishes BGV's goals if it pulls the defensive blocking forces in the Sylmahn Gap and/or Green Cove trace. BGV has to directly threaten those blocking forces to guarantee that he can count on reinforcement and resupply for summer campaigning. Before he can directly threaten those blocking forces, he has to destroy or drive away Wyrshym's winter bivouac in and around Guarnak.

I totally agree. That's where the Gap forces come in. If BGV attacks the AoG in the Gap, he forces them to fight in the arctic conditions they are not prepared for. Slight wounds from mortars can lead to mortal wounds from the cold. Simply making soldiers bleed will cripple those soldiers in short order as their uniforms lose their ability to insulate.

The attack at the Gap should also focus on reducing casualties for the allies. Shell the snot out of the Temple Boys. Destroy buildings and shelters and expose as much of the AoG as possible to the killing cold. Force the AoG out of what shelter survives and scout. Pretty soon the allied force can punch a force past the lines. At that point the Gap belongs to the allies. Even if that takes until close to the Spring thaw, Wyrshym can't do anything but stay in his Guarnak quarters. If he moves to attack BGV at Five Forks, the Southern allied force can catch him. If he moves to reinforce the Gap, more of his troops will be exposed to general Winter. If he waits until Spring to move South to the Gap, he courts a battle of movement with the ICA. That would be suicidal.

I honestly don't see what option Wyrshym has other than risking the weather to beat BGV to Five Forks. Facing the ICA under any other circumstance than behind well fortified walls with an excess of provisions is a recipe for defeat.

PeterZ wrote:I honestly think all you guys proposing that BGV attack Guarnak are seriously short sighted. Let's rework the underlying logic.

SNIP

All in all BGV should target Five Forks and avoid as many casualties as he can until he reaches his destination. Doing anything else risk to many casualties before he has to fight the GHoGatA come summer. BGV to targeting Guarnak strikes me as suboptimal.

We are not proposing BGV attack Guarnak, like it was something being pulled out of thin air!

We are just reflecting what BGV is shown as thinking at end of LAMA!!

He states [well, thinks to himself] that if he is very lucky he will get to Guarnak!!!

That seems pretty conclusive evidence as to what his plans are for the winter campaign - and so far I've seen nothing to indicate a change...

isaac_newton wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I honestly think all you guys proposing that BGV attack Guarnak are seriously short sighted. Let's rework the underlying logic.

SNIP

All in all BGV should target Five Forks and avoid as many casualties as he can until he reaches his destination. Doing anything else risk to many casualties before he has to fight the GHoGatA come summer. BGV to targeting Guarnak strikes me as suboptimal.

We are not proposing BGV attack Guarnak, like it was something being pulled out of thin air!

We are just reflecting what BGV is shown as thinking at end of LAMA!!

He states [well, thinks to himself] that if he is very lucky he will get to Guarnak!!!

That seems pretty conclusive evidence as to what his plans are for the winter campaign - and so far I've seen nothing to indicate a change...

Actually, no, it isn't. BGV can go straight to Five Forks and his southern force can make it to Guarnak before the thaw. That would meet what is described by BGV's thoughts. Why assume that southern force is out of it until Spring? That force can use artillery and mortars as profligately as the local commander desires. More supplies are not that far away and arriving steadily. Destroying the shelters of the AoG's Gap forces kills as effectively as a bullet between the eyes. The primary difference is how long it takes for the individuals to die.

So, yes, attacking Guarnak with the Nothern force would be short sighted. The only reason not to target Five Forks is if BGV believe he doesn't have enough time before the thaw to make it there before Wyrshym. Even then the idea is attractive as BGV faces Wyrshym in the open so the risk/reward dynamic is not conclusive even then.

PeterZ wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:
We are not proposing BGV attack Guarnak, like it was something being pulled out of thin air!

We are just reflecting what BGV is shown as thinking at end of LAMA!!

He states [well, thinks to himself] that if he is very lucky he will get to Guarnak!!!

That seems pretty conclusive evidence as to what his plans are for the winter campaign - and so far I've seen nothing to indicate a change...

Actually, no, it isn't. BGV can go straight to Five Forks and his southern force can make it to Guarnak before the thaw. That would meet what is described by BGV's thoughts. Why assume that southern force is out of it until Spring? That force can use artillery and mortars as profligately as the local commander desires. More supplies are not that far away and arriving steadily. Destroying the shelters of the AoG's Gap forces kills as effectively as a bullet between the eyes. The primary difference is how long it takes for the individuals to die.

So, yes, attacking Guarnak with the Nothern force would be short sighted. The only reason not to target Five Forks is if BGV believe he doesn't have enough time before the thaw to make it there before Wyrshym. Even then the idea is attractive as BGV faces Wyrshym in the open so the risk/reward dynamic is not conclusive even then.

Here's exactly what BGV says to the others in the inner circle just in the last chapter before the LAMA epilogue

"We'll be one hell of a lot more mobile than he is with the caribou and High Hallows for the mounted infantry too. I'm confident that we'll at least manage to roll up his forward positions and clear the Northland Gap. With only a little luck, we'll make it as far as Fairkyn and make him really nervous about the Ohlearn Gap. And if we are really lucky and the weather holds, we might actually reach Guarnak before the spring thaw turns everything to mud on us."

That is surely speaking of him, his northern force [caribou/high hallow] and equally clearly its destination. I just can't read that any other way