HFQ Official Snippet #8

Hi everybody,

I could be mistaken on this one, but the sense that I got from the snippet leaves me with the impression that the problem with the commerce raiders is way more widespread than some of you seem to be allowing for.

I don't know what the numbers should be, but the problem would not only encompass the convoys between Siddarmark and Charis, but the shipping between Charis and the rest of the Empire, and for that matter trade between other members of the Empire.

Given the fact that the embargo severely limits trade with the mainland, there has to be a large internal trade within the Empire going on to at least partially compensate for the loss of markets.

I have an impression of the Desnairians developing shipyards at least as fast as the EOC can find and burn them out. So not only do you need the hulls to protect the convoys, you also need a stronger effort at finding and repressing the shipyards.

In short, I think you need lots of hulls to deal with all of this so that the currently available and planned ironclads can be freed up to carry out the tasks to which they were going to be assigned before the commerce raiding took off.

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi everybody,

I could be mistaken on this one, but the sense that I got from the snippet leaves me with the impression that the problem with the commerce raiders is way more widespread than some of you seem to be allowing for.

snip

I have an impression of the Desnairians developing shipyards at least as fast as the EOC can find and burn them out. So not only do you need the hulls to protect the convoys, you also need a stronger effort at finding and repressing the shipyards.

In short, I think you need lots of hulls to deal with all of this so that the currently available and planned ironclads can be freed up to carry out the tasks to which they were going to be assigned before the commerce raiding took off.

Don

Agree for the most part. I would add that the issue of rebuilding faster than the ICN can destroy is part of what Merlin wants the Desnari to learn. How to build better and faster. If the ICN simply destroys those coastal ship building facilities, the Desnari simply focus on building facilities faster. Now, if the ICN send in some KHVIIs to flatten Desnar the City or Geyra on top of what the City class ships do to those coastal cities, many more Desnari building techniques would have to be improved.

Besides, targeting those cities would force redeploying resources away from the war effort. That alone will reduce Desnar's ability to support military forces.

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi everybody,

I could be mistaken on this one, but the sense that I got from the snippet leaves me with the impression that the problem with the commerce raiders is way more widespread than some of you seem to be allowing for.

snip

I have an impression of the Desnairians developing shipyards at least as fast as the EOC can find and burn them out. So not only do you need the hulls to protect the convoys, you also need a stronger effort at finding and repressing the shipyards.

In short, I think you need lots of hulls to deal with all of this so that the currently available and planned ironclads can be freed up to carry out the tasks to which they were going to be assigned before the commerce raiding took off.

Don

Agree for the most part. I would add that the issue of rebuilding faster than the ICN can destroy is part of what Merlin wants the Desnari to learn. How to build better and faster. If the ICN simply destroys those coastal ship building facilities, the Desnari simply focus on building facilities faster. Now, if the ICN send in some KHVIIs to flatten Desnar the City or Geyra on top of what the City class ships do to those coastal cities, many more Desnari building techniques would have to be improved.

Besides, targeting those cities would force redeploying resources away from the war effort. That alone will reduce Desnar's ability to support military forces.

Hi Peter Z,

I find myself thinking back to those galleons that Desnair built prior to their destruction at Ithyria by the ICN under Rock Point, and not being very impressed.

That's not to say that they won't learn from experience. But I doubt that they will produce anything in Charis' league anytime soon. That's not to say that they can't build something effective that needs to be respected and countered.

Once the Charis turns its hand to the threat, I'm sure that the EOC can out build Desnair.

As for what Merlin is after, I'm pretty sure that Priority One is defeating the church at the moment just as he would share Cayleb's concern for the survival of the EOC. While he is pleased at the evidence of creativity on the part of mainlanders, he probably wouldn't be in favor of them getting too handy with it until the political power of the COGA is broken, the proscriptions gone and the inquisition's ability to dictate the beliefs of the people of Safehold shattered.

After all, if the church wins, creativity and innovation will take a looong nap.

Thanks for your post Peter.

Don

Well, Don, the Desnari don't have to out build Charis. The simply have to build faster than Charis can destroy those cities and facilities. It is that process which will teach them how to improve their techniques. I doubt the Desnari will succeed enough to actually out pace the ICN's ability to destroy what they build. The process will provide incentives to improve their processes. Lord knows the backward, inbred, aristocratic bigots need all the incentives to improve they can get.

Hi PeterZ,

Given the standing IHA was so small before the jihad [473K], and even with the nobility's matching it, the total force was less than 1/200 of the population, so Desnar's standing army might be smaller than we've been projecting, the same ratio as Harchong implying under 722,000 active troops for Desnar, which seems low for controlling roughly 6 million square miles of territory and 148 million people, let alone conduct any offensive operations.

So the regular IDA might total something much nearer 500,000 than I'd previously thought likely, and now is quite short handed despite CoGA subsidies.

Perhaps one reason Siddarmark was so feared by the CoGA was because its 1.2 million man standing army was so much bigger than its neighbors, mainly because infantry is so much cheaper than cavalry, before the 1.8 million militia was added to the equation.

The vicarate knew what it or the empires would do if it had such a powerful army, but not having much experience with republics in general, it didn't know Machiavelli's dictum that 'republics rarely start wars, but they often finish them', and realised it was much safer to have just left it alone.

Supporting the Desnari schooner commerce destroyers seems to be mainly Clyntahn's idea, and despite the construction costs, an effective one, at least at the moment.

I don't think Merlin considers Desnar learning how to build obsolete ships faster as that worthwhile an improvement in new or useful technology, while leaving the rest of the IDN alone in Geyra and Desnar seemed odd in HFaF, but RFC has his reasons, we know not yet why.

L

PeterZ wrote:Well, Don, the Desnari don't have to out build Charis. The simply have to build faster than Charis can destroy those cities and facilities. It is that process which will teach them how to improve their techniques. I doubt the Desnari will succeed enough to actually out pace the ICN's ability to destroy what they build. The process will provide incentives to improve their processes. Lord knows the backward, inbred, aristocratic bigots need all the incentives to improve they can get.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Given the standing IHA was so small before the jihad [473K], and even with the nobility's matching it, the total force was less than 1/200 of the population, so Desnar's standing army might be smaller than we've been projecting, the same ratio as Harchong implying under 722,000 active troops for Desnar, which seems low for controlling roughly 6 million square miles of territory and 148 million people, let alone conduct any offensive operations.

So the regular IDA might total something much nearer 500,000 than I'd previously thought likely, and now is quite short handed despite CoGA subsidies.

Perhaps one reason Siddarmark was so feared by the CoGA was because its 1.2 million man standing army was so much bigger than its neighbors, mainly because infantry is so much cheaper than cavalry, before the 1.8 million militia was added to the equation.

The vicarate knew what it or the empires would do if it had such a powerful army, but not having much experience with republics in general, it didn't know Machiavelli's dictum that 'republics rarely start wars, but they often finish them', and realised it was much safer to have just left it alone.

Supporting the Desnari schooner commerce destroyers seems to be mainly Clyntahn's idea, and despite the construction costs, an effective one, at least at the moment.

I don't think Merlin considers Desnar learning how to build obsolete ships faster as that worthwhile an improvement in new or useful technology, while leaving the rest of the IDN alone in Geyra and Desnar seemed odd in HFaF, but RFC has his reasons, we know not yet why.

L

A prior thread also involving Don discussed the optimum social structures that would foster vibrant economies. Desnar and North Harchong had the fewest of the beneficial social constructs. Anything that would encourage them to change those structures and adopt better ones would be a good step in the right direction.

In that light, smashing their cities along with their ship building centers, if it would foster more rapid change, would be a good thing. If the need to rebuild would foster Desnar to treat their workers more like humans or offer those with capital but are not aristos more legal protection in increase investments in rebuilding, that would be worth it for Merlin. Those changes move Desnar closer to Charis and finding accommodation.

HOw are desnair's fiances? THere are those two big cities on the coast the the empire could attack. SAy they are taken out, would the cost to the country harm them enough to drain them of hteir dtrength.
LIke in that gulf, they can build the small ships everywhere with water access. If they can harm not only the shipyards for big ships, for both warships and merchant ones, but the foundaries for weaponry, it would blunt any naval operations.
How much of the desnair naval forces will be drained to helpp deal with army loses, especially if silkiah is threatened

I somehow don't see the Alliance destroying cities. It just doesn't seem to be their style. Even Feryad where Rock Point destroyed everything within a two mile perimeter of the docks, care was raken to insure the safety of civilians. And after the battle at Ithyria, only supplies and installations contributing to the war effort were taken out.

I'm not convinced that doing even major damage to a city would do anything about those yards building commerce raiders. I think those shipyards are more over in the area supporting those fishing fleets mentioned in the snippet.

I suppose though, that whatever resourses are devoted to repairing damage to cities is not being used on commerce raiders.

Don

lyonheart wrote:
Given the standing IHA was so small before the jihad [473K], and even with the nobility's matching it, the total force was less than 1/200 of the population, so Desnar's standing army might be smaller than we've been projecting, the same ratio as Harchong implying under 722,000 active troops for Desnar, which seems low for controlling roughly 6 million square miles of territory and 148 million people, let alone conduct any offensive operations.

I predict a army size of over 1 million for Desnar. That is my estimate for the permanent standing army, discounting any levies or militia. My reason for this is simple. Desnar must have an army which was comparable to Sidarmark's.

Also Harchong has several special circumstances which cause its small army size.

First it has significant borders with rival powers. Look at the map. Desnar, is based its eastern coast(see location of Ithria and the capital) so Desnar's borders ae unimportant. Plus, Desnar's border is with South Harchong. While north Harchong borders the temple lands.

Second, rampant corruption. No explanation needed.

Third, Harchong has two power groups at the national level. The nobles and the bureaucracy, the standing army belongs to the bureaucracy. Which threatens the nobles with the possibility of a coup. So they will try to limit the standing army's size.

n7axw wrote:I somehow don't see the Alliance destroying cities. It just doesn't seem to be their style. Even Feryad where Rock Point destroyed everything within a two mile perimeter of the docks, care was raken to insure the safety of civilians. And after the battle at Ithyria, only supplies and installations contributing to the war effort were taken out.

I'm not convinced that doing even major damage to a city would do anything about those yards building commerce raiders. I think those shipyards are more over in the area supporting those fishing fleets mentioned in the snippet.

I suppose though, that whatever resourses are devoted to repairing damage to cities is not being used on commerce raiders.

Don

Destroying the harbors, ship building facilities, harbor forts and warehouses would redirect a significant amount of resources away from commerce raiders. The entire city doesn't have to be destroyed. Just a good sized chunk of it that supports the war and houses the government.