General Winter

To my mind, this winter definitely will favor the CE, because they have much better logistics and because they seem to have planned for it better.

Given Wyrshym's army's lack of winter clothing and general immobility, audacity and surprise will give Charis an immediate and decisive advantage. I can easily see the CE trapping most of Wyrshym's army and basically starving it out, reaching as far as Guarnak and Hyrdmyn by spring, and Traymos by summer.

They'll do it by horse, and by sledge and sled, possibly including skis, but the skis probably won't be a major factor.

Just as Eastshare described Shiloh Province's defenses as being a shell, with no real forces behind those holding key bottlenecks at the start of LAMA, so Northland, New Northland, and possibly Hildermoss and Mountaincross Provinces are to CoGA. If CE can trap Wyrshym's forces, They can take a lot of territory, and they have the clothing, equipment and probably the mobility to do it.

After that, though, it becomes much more a matter of logistics. Charis will be biting off a lot of territory it will now have to hold. Further, its supply lines will be getting longer, while CoGA's will be getting shorter. And (SPOILER) as we've learned, Charis will have logistical and supply-line protection issues elsewhere, as well.

It won't be the getting that will cause some indigestion - it will be the holding.

Interesting times ahead.

BGV is already planning a winter campaign. He's receiving shipments of winter adapted horses (High Hallows) and caribou from the Raven Lords.

I am going to say that it won't be the Church that is involved in winter operations, at least this winter. There are 2 reasons I have for this: 1) The Church's armies have been beaten fairly handily in battles prior to the start of winter. They are unsettled and are unwilling to do more than wait for spring.

2) This is a simple matter of logistics. The armies in the field have more bodies to feed than they have food, even with what they can move forward. They will be in no condition to do more than defend. The Harchong forces are in the Border States where they are being trained and can be supplied. Moving them forward would only make the food situation worse.

If anyone does it, it will be the Allied Forces.

pokermind wrote:What I have in mind is asymmetric warfare, behind the lines guerrilla attacks on supply. My question is which side will fare better. The AOG has numbers and new breach loaders. Both sides have Glacier Heart veterains, and the AOG has the possibility of increasing numbers with cold tolerant Herchongese.

The allies have fewer numbers and guarding supply convoys and dumps from guerrilla attacks will effect the number of front line troops more than the AOG.

The AOG has ample evidence of the effectiveness of attacking logistics, and this strategy may be a winner for them. Thus my guess is General Winter will favor the AOG in this winter guerrilla warfare.

What say you?

Poker

My understanding from the end of LAMA is that the primary campaign over the coming winter is going to be Baron Green Valley and his forces against Wyrshym and his portion of the AoG. But Wyrshym is at the end of a buggered up supply line. I don't see him being able to implement some of the strategies you are advocating. Yes, the Harchongese soldiers are used to cold and might make potentially useful winter soldiers. However, they are not in this theatre of operations. And since the CoG is having problems just feeding Wyrshym's army, I can't see them sending in more forces in the middle of winter.

But perhaps more importantly, BGV is PLANNING on a winter campaign. And from textev, he has put a great deal of thought into it. He has considered what he will need to do to move troops and supplies under winter conditions and has made preparations such as getting the winter capable High Hallows horses and caribou from Raven's Land.

Wyrshym seems to be a capable commander. But it seems like he planned on entering winter quarters with his army and resuming the campaign next spring. When winter fighting breaks out, he is going to have to depart from his plan. It does not seem like his men have trained on marching under winter conditions. Furthermore, his logistics are going to be improvised.

So under these conditions, I really don't see "General Winter" being kind to the AoG. In fact, I think they are going to get beaten rather badly. In fact I can see them looking forward to the spring melt so "General Mud" can slow down the rapidly advancing ICA forces under the command of BGV.

n7axw wrote:For this to work in favor of the AOG, they at least have to bundle their people up so they don't freeze to death. Add into that the EOC's Chisholmians are used to the idea of excercising and perhaps even campaigning in winter, so the advantage would go to the EOC. In addition to that the EOC's army has those High Hallow horses bred for winter campaigning.

As a guessing man, I would suspect that the Army of the Sylvan Gap is going to be trapped and destroyed long before spring. That's what BGV seems to be anticipating anyway.

Don

I agree with most of what you say. In particular the point about the High Hallows horses. I think they are going to prove invaluable in the coming winter campaign. I also seem to remember that Charis cut some kind of deal with the Raven Lords in which they bought some kind of winter Caribou which can serve as draft animals, even under harsh winter conditions. If your draft animals are better suited to moving men and supplies under winter conditions than the other side's are, then you have a huge advantage even before the first shot is fired...

Hi Saber964,

You only left out the Raven Lord's snow lizards, which while smaller than the larger continents, were still quite hardy.

Evidently from LaMA, BGV is counting on the ice being quite thick for the artillery, possibly on sleds, which can be rather faster than simple wheeled carriages.

"Fascinating" - Mr Spock

L

saber964 wrote:BGV is already planning a winter campaign. He's receiving shipments of winter adapted horses (High Hallows) and caribou from the Raven Lords.

Hi Henry Brown,

It's March already so it may not be that long a winter campaign.

Don't forget the Raven Lord's snow lizards; they may pull less individually, but possibly do so faster, or yoked together pull the same loads.

From the map, at around 40 miles per day, BGV might need 7 days marching to get to the the Northland Gap; I expect him to consider attacking from the north where it would be least expected, then penetrating and hooking behind the AoG, trapping those not yet attacked.

Guarnak appears to be his campaign target, before it all turns to mud on him, so if he manages to cut Wyrshym off and destroy his army, which I think is likely, he could open the Sylman gap as his new supply route.

Perhaps his engineers could fill the canals from the lakes, using steam powered pumps or siphons if necessary, he might be able to advance much further west when he engages the IHA.

Another poster suggested Five Forks would be significant, I also wonder.

Given that Aivahstyn is 600 miles south of Allyntyn it should already be getting warmer, so General Symkyn doesn't need such heavy winter gear to crush Kaitswyrth.

We don't know if Kaitswyrth has received replacement rifles for the 19,000 [2/3+] he lost in early August, but he too seems awfully exposed, NTM Symkyn may outnumber him, possibly several times in rifles alone, before artillery and mortars are added.

The question then becomes will that be the alliance's 'Antietam moment', ie the opportunity to publish the circle's records of corruption from a position of strength, or should they wait until after they handle the MHoGatA?

L

Henry Brown wrote:

pokermind wrote:What I have in mind is asymmetric warfare, behind the lines guerrilla attacks on supply. My question is which side will fare better. The AOG has numbers and new breach loaders. Both sides have Glacier Heart veterains, and the AOG has the possibility of increasing numbers with cold tolerant Herchongese.

The allies have fewer numbers and guarding supply convoys and dumps from guerrilla attacks will effect the number of front line troops more than the AOG.

The AOG has ample evidence of the effectiveness of attacking logistics, and this strategy may be a winner for them. Thus my guess is General Winter will favor the AOG in this winter guerrilla warfare.

What say you?

Poker

My understanding from the end of LAMA is that the primary campaign over the coming winter is going to be Baron Green Valley and his forces against Wyrshym and his portion of the AoG. But Wyrshym is at the end of a buggered up supply line. I don't see him being able to implement some of the strategies you are advocating. Yes, the Harchongese soldiers are used to cold and might make potentially useful winter soldiers. However, they are not in this theatre of operations. And since the CoG is having problems just feeding Wyrshym's army, I can't see them sending in more forces in the middle of winter.

But perhaps more importantly, BGV is PLANNING on a winter campaign. And from textev, he has put a great deal of thought into it. He has considered what he will need to do to move troops and supplies under winter conditions and has made preparations such as getting the winter capable High Hallows horses and caribou from Raven's Land.

Wyrshym seems to be a capable commander. But it seems like he planned on entering winter quarters with his army and resuming the campaign next spring. When winter fighting breaks out, he is going to have to depart from his plan. It does not seem like his men have trained on marching under winter conditions. Furthermore, his logistics are going to be improvised.

So under these conditions, I really don't see "General Winter" being kind to the AoG. In fact, I think they are going to get beaten rather badly. In fact I can see them looking forward to the spring melt so "General Mud" can slow down the rapidly advancing ICA forces under the command of BGV.

I think that the Army of the Sylvan Gap is toast. Frozen toast that is. What I get out of that last exchange between Merlin and BGV in LAMA. the winter campaign will start as soon as the weather clears.

What I find myself wondering is whether or not that part of it would be over soon enough to allow BGV to move over to the Daivyn to combine with Symkins (sp) facing Kaitswryth to wipe that army before facing the Harchongians in the spring...or even if the idea is practical...

Don

Here is what I see BGV doing he will go into winter quarters to buildup supplies and then head out in late winter. Probably out of a raging snowstorm and hit the AoG-North at the same time the RSA forces in the Sylman Gap pin the AoG in place with a series of attacks. The reason why they will weight is for the AoG-North to have lost thousands of men to depravation desertion disease and starvation.

saber964 wrote:Here is what I see BGV doing he will go into winter quarters to buildup supplies and then head out in late winter. Probably out of a raging snowstorm and hit the AoG-North at the same time the RSA forces in the Sylman Gap pin the AoG in place with a series of attacks. The reason why they will weight is for the AoG-North to have lost thousands of men to depravation desertion disease and starvation.

I think you mean "wait" (just teasing; the kind of mistake I could make).

The next step in the sequence is that the Army of the Sylvan Gap opens up a full throated assault toward their supply base because if they don't, they starve. The result is that there are even fewer of them that survive than the Army of Shiloh down by Fr. Tairys... Toast, I tell you... frozen toast.

Don