Kudos for all the Excellent points!

You also probably took less space than I would have.

L
Jonathan_S wrote:SWM wrote:I'm no strategist, but here is the way I've been looking at it.
He was doing exactly what his force was stationed at Hancock to do. His mission was always intended as a fast reactionary force to attack at one or more of the nearby inhabited systems; he was simply following through on his mission by moving his forces to counter. He had evidence of an impending attack, so he reacted. If there actually had been attacks on those systems, he would have split his forces to counter-attack--that's exactly what he was there to do.
He had full discretion on how to react. The War Warning had gone out, so he was fully authorized--indeed, required--to counter any attacks by Haven. Exactly how he reacted was up to his best judgment. Splitting his forces to counter multiple strikes was one of the options all along.
Now, it turns out that he was suckered, and he had been advised not to do it. But remember that Sarnow was only one of his unit commanders. He had other unit commanders as well. It is not unreasonable for an officer to choose his own plan rather than that of a single subordinate's. (Honor doesn't count, as she was an advisor to Sarnow rather than to Parks.) And Parks did listen well enough to Sarnow that he modified his plan to leave a force behind in Hancock.
Splitting his forces was well within the parameters of Parks' discretion, part of the options available to him from the beginning. It turned out to be the wrong decision, but there was nothing inherently wrong with splitting forces. In fact, if he was going to trap the attacks he thought were coming, splitting his forces was the only way to do it. That it was the wrong decision is a sign that Parks is not as good a strategist as Sarnow, not a sign that he actually did anything wrong.
And it was pointed out the Parks had no suspicion of the type of reconnaissance net the Peeps had snuck in. So he was working under the assumption that they wouldn't know he'd left Hancock unless they sent a ship to scout the inner system (which would almost certainly be detected; and a courier could alert him of in time to respond before the Peeps could likely take advantage of their knowledge.
So for Hancock the likely outcomes as he saw them were:
1) The Peeps would hit it with sufficient force to (in their opinion) crush his forces if he chose to stand and fight; or
2) The Peeps would attempt to raid or seize nearby systems bypassing Hancock.
3) No major activity in that sector.
He specifically did not believe they'd raid or attack Hancock with forces too weak to take on his concentrated force because they'd have no way to know his force wasn't home. (And once he discovered his error he immediately re-concentrated his forces and headed back to Hancock)
He left Sarnow and Honor primarily to drive off or destroy any scouting missions, to delay the Peeps realization that he's moved his forces elsewhere.
And in the first scenario it's arguably better to have his forces elsewhere else. Hancock is a nice base but it's not worth losing a noticeable fraction of the Mantie's wall holding. Better to let it fall and then clear it back out with a reenforced attack. (Admittedly a bit of a gamble, but Parks rated defending the inhabited systems around Hancock as worth the risk of losing the repair base and it's personnel)
In the second scenario it's also arguably better to have his forces elsewhere. That gives a much better chance to have some Peep raid break its teeth on Park's battle squadrons (and their towed pod surprise) by running into them in some system that's supposed to be lightly defended until the nodal response force can arrive. Secretly uncovering Hancock might well have let Parks whittle down the forces facing him as smaller raids blunder into him. (Plus of course providing the best chance to keep those inhabited Allied worlds from having their in-system traffic and orbital infrastructure from being trashed in the interval between the raiding forces arrival and when a nodal force from Hancock could arrive to engage them; or more likely just cause them to scamper off unhurt)
And in the third plausible scenario it doesn't much matter where his ships are because the war won't be kicking off there.
Yes Parks could have adopted a more aggressive posture, but that did run the risk that even if he could guarantee that no Peeps could sneak past him out of Seaford Nine his nodal force would be totally out of position to defend or react to any other attack on Hancock or the other systems he was responsible for defending.
In hindsight Honor and Sarnow were more right, but only because of information that nobody at the time knew (the Argus net).
Heck, the Peeps original plan was the scenario 1 I outlined above. Reenforcing Seaford Nine enough that they had what should have been a decisive advantage over Parks and then proceeding directly to punch out his battle squadrons at Hancock. (Now whether that actually would have worked in the face of the SD towed pods that the Peeps didn't know about is an interesting question in and of itself)
But the way things actually went down gave Parks an unexpected gift of being able to fight the Peep forces in detail (instead of concentrated); which he wouldn't have had if he'd either stayed in Hancock or picketed Seaford Nine.