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Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists

Join us in talking discussing all things Honor, including (but not limited to) tactics, favorite characters, and book discussions.
Re: Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists
Post by Amaroq   » Wed May 07, 2014 4:04 pm

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kzt wrote:It's a blatantly BS argument to say that 8th would have been destroyed if it was in the position of 3rd. 8th would have taken damage, but they would have obliterated both RHN fleets. It is what the characters think internally, but it is simply objectively wrong.

First, 8th would have started firing at 2nd from effective Apollo range. Which is a LOT farther then 3rd's effective range. So 2nd can't really effectively return fire and is still outside of effective range of Sphinx.

Second, the damage per missile of 8th is vastly higher. Remember when just 3 Apollo SDs were killing a 5th fleet SD every salvo? An entire fleet of Apollo SDs would have crushed 5th. Literally, 6 salvos, would have destroyed or mission killed pretty much every single ship in 5th. It would take a bit longer to kill 2nd, but by the time 5th drops in all the missiles needed would have already been fired, so all of 8th fires on 5th.


I think calling the argument "blatant BS" is pretty strong. Admittedly, the main crux of the argument that 8th Fleet wouldn't have been as screwed as 3rd comes from a character's internal thoughts but that is the only source we have. And Honor's no slouch as a tactician herself so I would consider her a pretty fair judge of probable outcomes in that scenario.

Don't forget, that trap was specifically designed for 8th Fleet knowing they had the long-range targeting advantage. Kuzak happened to get caught because she was the first one through the Junction. No doubt, 8th Fleet would have done a lot of damage and it's not written in stone that Honor couldn't have taken out both Havenite fleets in that position. To me, there's enough wiggle room for either outcome to have resulted hence my defense of Kuzak.

Question: how many Apollo-capable SD(P)s did Honor have in 8th Fleet?
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Re: Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists
Post by kzt   » Wed May 07, 2014 5:24 pm

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Amaroq wrote:Question: how many Apollo-capable SD(P)s did Honor have in 8th Fleet?

32. Which was enough to comfortable control a single salvo of 62,208 missiles, when 288 missiles appears to be able to kill a RHN SD(P).

Assuming that 8th fires at effective Apollo range 8th can start firing as soon as it emerges from hyper (which appears to be about 300,000 km OUTSIDE the RZ) instead of waiting. It takes about 8 minutes to reach the RZ, during which 8th can easily fire enough missiles to completely kill every ship in 2nd. So how do they even trap 8th anyhow? Does 5th hyper in while 8th is still outside the RZ, or does it wait until 2nd has been reduced to debris clouds?

Anyhow, back to firepower.

Assuming that, for some crazy reason, Harrington also decided to not stack pods and went to just double salvos 8th fleet kills 10+ RHN SD(P)s per 24 seconds. So in the time it took both 2nd and 5th to kill 9 of 3rds ships 8th would have killed 42 or so RHN SD(P)s. How long before 5th hypers out?

Worse, given a 24 second cycle time and a time of flight of over 6 minutes for the RHN that means 15 salvos are already launched before the first missile hits. And a single surviving KH-2 can control each salvo of that size. That's about 160 ships killed. At the rate of loss of 2 ships in 8th per salvo you run of RHN ships before you run out 8th fleet.
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Re: Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists
Post by Howard T. Map-addict   » Thu May 08, 2014 5:02 pm

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IfIRecallCorrectly,
The Haven Plan was:
If the Manties show many new-type MDMs,
Then .... Surrender!
(After warning Chin to go home, of course.)

My fave Honorverse Fantasy is during the conversation
between Tourville and Honor when he becomes her captive,
when he *blames* her for not keeping her new weapon home
to defend Manticore from the *entirely* predictable
attack! ("Well, what else did you expect us to do, when
you showed a New Superweapon in very small numbers? Our
choices were surrender at once, or else try to attack
while you still had too few to win.")

Which returns us to The Thread Topic, by showing that
Theisman was still a better Strategist than Honor was.

HTM

kzt wrote:
Amaroq wrote:Question: how many Apollo-capable SD(P)s did Honor have in 8th Fleet?

32. Which was enough to comfortable control a single salvo of 62,208 missiles, when 288 missiles appears to be able to kill a RHN SD(P).

Assuming that 8th fires at effective Apollo range 8th can start firing as soon as it emerges from hyper (which appears to be about 300,000 km OUTSIDE the RZ) instead of waiting. It takes about 8 minutes to reach the RZ, during which 8th can easily fire enough missiles to completely kill every ship in 2nd. So how do they even trap 8th anyhow? Does 5th hyper in while 8th is still outside the RZ, or does it wait until 2nd has been reduced to debris clouds?

Anyhow, back to firepower.

Assuming that, for some crazy reason, Harrington also decided to not stack pods and went to just double salvos 8th fleet kills 10+ RHN SD(P)s per 24 seconds. So in the time it took both 2nd and 5th to kill 9 of 3rds ships 8th would have killed 42 or so RHN SD(P)s. How long before 5th hypers out?

Worse, given a 24 second cycle time and a time of flight of over 6 minutes for the RHN that means 15 salvos are already launched before the first missile hits. And a single surviving KH-2 can control each salvo of that size. That's about 160 ships killed. At the rate of loss of 2 ships in 8th per salvo you run of RHN ships before you run out 8th fleet.
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Re: Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists
Post by Amaroq   » Thu May 08, 2014 8:32 pm

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kzt wrote:[
32. Which was enough to comfortable control a single salvo of 62,208 missiles, when 288 missiles appears to be able to kill a RHN SD(P).

Assuming that 8th fires at effective Apollo range 8th can start firing as soon as it emerges from hyper (which appears to be about 300,000 km OUTSIDE the RZ) instead of waiting. It takes about 8 minutes to reach the RZ, during which 8th can easily fire enough missiles to completely kill every ship in 2nd. So how do they even trap 8th anyhow? Does 5th hyper in while 8th is still outside the RZ, or does it wait until 2nd has been reduced to debris clouds?

Anyhow, back to firepower.

Assuming that, for some crazy reason, Harrington also decided to not stack pods and went to just double salvos 8th fleet kills 10+ RHN SD(P)s per 24 seconds. So in the time it took both 2nd and 5th to kill 9 of 3rds ships 8th would have killed 42 or so RHN SD(P)s. How long before 5th hypers out?

Worse, given a 24 second cycle time and a time of flight of over 6 minutes for the RHN that means 15 salvos are already launched before the first missile hits. And a single surviving KH-2 can control each salvo of that size. That's about 160 ships killed. At the rate of loss of 2 ships in 8th per salvo you run of RHN ships before you run out 8th fleet.


So , I guess it's safe to say that Theisman tried to design an ops plan to catch 8th Fleet if it came through the Junction but he underestimated how lethal Apollo could be? He did only have one battle's worth of data to go on after all. I suppose 300+ ships of the wall wasn't enough... :)
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Re: Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists
Post by Tenshinai   » Thu May 08, 2014 9:48 pm

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Howard T. Map-addict wrote:IfIRecallCorrectly,
The Haven Plan was:
If the Manties show many new-type MDMs,
Then .... Surrender!
(After warning Chin to go home, of course.)

My fave Honorverse Fantasy is during the conversation
between Tourville and Honor when he becomes her captive,
when he *blames* her for not keeping her new weapon home
to defend Manticore from the *entirely* predictable
attack! ("Well, what else did you expect us to do, when
you showed a New Superweapon in very small numbers? Our
choices were surrender at once, or else try to attack
while you still had too few to win.")

Which returns us to The Thread Topic, by showing that
Theisman was still a better Strategist than Honor was.

HTM


That sounds about right. And he certainly is.

And i think KZT is gravely underestimating the ability for a workable ambush.
But an ambush can be a very dangerous thing for those laying it, if the other side predicts it.

Honor might have defeated the ambush if it had sprung on her instead, but her command would probably have been severely trashed in the process.
And chances are decent that she could have been squashed like a bug out of sheer overwhelming numbers.

So , I guess it's safe to say that Theisman tried to design an ops plan to catch 8th Fleet if it came through the Junction but he underestimated how lethal Apollo could be?


If Honor had been first out of the junction, she would have had no warning, the ambush would then have a far greater chance at being highly lethal.
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Re: Honorverse series, the future..?
Post by kzt   » Thu May 08, 2014 11:10 pm

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Tenshinai wrote:If Honor had been first out of the junction, she would have had no warning, the ambush would then have a far greater chance at being highly lethal.

Sure, if she also took up smoking crack. (edit - note that 8th had 5000 pods externally carried, unlike 3rd which didn't have any for reasons.)

As soon as she merges from hyper she is deep inside effective Apollo range. So even if she didn't bother to have ships stack pods first (which is both possible and standard RMN tactics) she can start firing. She fires every 24 seconds for 4 minutes. When those missiles arrive pretty much every single ship in 2nd dies. Note that she is still outside the RZ.

Oops, they are closing so I'll continue this later.
Later:
So she is outside the RZ and waiting for her missiles to blow up 2nd fleet. Now the obvious issue is what will 2nd fleet do about this little problem they have, or will have in some period of time I don't feel like trying to calculate, but likely to be about 12-15 minutes.

Now if they can determine that these missiles are all Apollo they have a really serious chance of just surrendering, because even if they survive this attack their are plenty more missiles left. This is, from the view of 8th, ideal.

Otherwise they can try to build another massive salvo (if the donkey's survived the missile swarm - which they probably didn't) or can immediately start shooting back. It's going to require a ballistic component from them, so due to reasons accuracy will be terrible. Given that at Solon a tiny little piece of 8th fleet absorbed salvos of 11,000 missiles without significant damage I don't think that will work out well for 2nd and they probably know that. Or they can shoot at Spinx. Not much that you can do about that, though that would result in Spinx firing at 2nd too.

Anyhow, worst case is that they send another huge salvo at 8th, so let's figure out how to handle this. The obvious options are to absorb it (which seems kind of a questionable plan) or to evade it (which seems like a better plan) so we'll work that out.

There are two way to evade it. First you can do what Chin planed for 5th fleet, which is just move. Assuming Chin and her staff isn't amazingly stupid, moving 50,000 km off target will result in the MDMs being able to engage. So 8th can accelerate in a random direction along the RZ and likely prevent any damage.

However, it's possible that Chin and her staff were mistaken and the missiles will reaquire their targets. In that case the obvious way to evade is to jump into hyper. Given the velocity difference between 2nd and 8th and the greater accleration from RMN missiles and the need for 2nd to coordinate fire there should be at least a minute between the first RMN missile strikes and the first RHN missile salvos arriving, plus the next few one or two will be all set. So 8th kills 40+ of 2nd, then hypers out and the remaining salvos kill another dozen or so ships if they are lucky. However, 2nd is now pretty much out of ammo....

However there is a sneakier way to do this. Remember that each KH2 can control the firepower of an entire squadron? So you have one ship from each squadron go into hyper ASAP and maneuvers opposite the planned fleet move. They will pop out of hyper as soon as 8th goes into hyper and assume command of the missiles in flight.

Assuming that 2nd tries to activate the trap plan, how long do you think it takes for 2nd to hyper in? 3 minutes? 5 minutes? We'll assume 3 minutes. It appears that 5th was supposed to come close to the RZ but actually came out ~12 million KM out. That's about 2.5 minutes of missile flight. Hyperdrive time to activate is 4 minutes. So 8th has to absorb the 11,000 missile salvos they faced a Solon with 26 SDs instead of 2 SDs and a few BCs for a minute and a half - at Solon that took no essentially no damage, why would it be that different here?. (Though they have to do it without LACs - either because they don't have them or because they are all deployed along the threat vector for 2nd.)

During this time they will be shooting back, with Apollo. Remember those 5000 pods that 8th fleet had externally tractored while maneuvering and transiting the WHJ?

So 5th dies a horrible death and 8th hypers out to avoid the rest of the (unguided) missile stream from 5th. At which point the other 6 SDs (which have been in hyper for at least three minutes) hyper back in several million KMs away and take over the missiles heading for 2nd.
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Re: Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists
Post by Tenshinai   » Fri May 09, 2014 8:39 am

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You make a bundle of assumption about how the ambush is supposed to happen, including assuming that there effectively IS NO AMBUSH, that you have little to no real reason to assume.

In-universe expectations(both sides) was that 8th would have become an ex-fleet pining for the fjords if it had been first into the ambush, that strongly suggests your assumptions are not correct.
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Re: Honorverse series, the future..?
Post by kzt   » Fri May 09, 2014 2:00 pm

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Tenshinai wrote:You make a bundle of assumption about how the ambush is supposed to happen, including assuming that there effectively IS NO AMBUSH, that you have little to no real reason to assume.

In-universe expectations(both sides) was that 8th would have become an ex-fleet pining for the fjords if it had been first into the ambush, that strongly suggests your assumptions are not correct.

Kuzak had to methodically throw away every advantage and then prohibit her ships from rolling pods for David to achieve what he wanted. It also should be pointed out that two SDs and a handful of BCs at Solon absorbed many salvos in the 11,000 to 12,000 size without any damage, yet against a much stronger defense at 3rd fleet that size salvos were killing or crippling a SD per salvo at BOM.

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Re: Honorverse series, the future..?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed May 14, 2014 8:52 am

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kzt wrote:So she is outside the RZ and waiting for her missiles to blow up 2nd fleet. Now the obvious issue is what will 2nd fleet do about this little problem they have, or will have in some period of time I don't feel like trying to calculate, but likely to be about 12-15 minutes.

Now if they can determine that these missiles are all Apollo they have a really serious chance of just surrendering, because even if they survive this attack their are plenty more missiles left. This is, from the view of 8th, ideal.

Otherwise they can try to build another massive salvo (if the donkey's survived the missile swarm - which they probably didn't) or can immediately start shooting back. It's going to require a ballistic component from them, so due to reasons accuracy will be terrible. Given that at Solon a tiny little piece of 8th fleet absorbed salvos of 11,000 missiles without significant damage I don't think that will work out well for 2nd and they probably know that. Or they can shoot at Spinx. Not much that you can do about that, though that would result in Spinx firing at 2nd too.

Anyhow, worst case is that they send another huge salvo at 8th, so let's figure out how to handle this. The obvious options are to absorb it (which seems kind of a questionable plan) or to evade it (which seems like a better plan) so we'll work that out.

There are two way to evade it. First you can do what Chin planed for 5th fleet, which is just move. Assuming Chin and her staff isn't amazingly stupid, moving 50,000 km off target will result in the MDMs being able to engage. So 8th can accelerate in a random direction along the RZ and likely prevent any damage.

However, it's possible that Chin and her staff were mistaken and the missiles will reaquire their targets. In that case the obvious way to evade is to jump into hyper. Given the velocity difference between 2nd and 8th and the greater accleration from RMN missiles and the need for 2nd to coordinate fire there should be at least a minute between the first RMN missile strikes and the first RHN missile salvos arriving, plus the next few one or two will be all set. So 8th kills 40+ of 2nd, then hypers out and the remaining salvos kill another dozen or so ships if they are lucky. However, 2nd is now pretty much out of ammo....

However there is a sneakier way to do this. Remember that each KH2 can control the firepower of an entire squadron? So you have one ship from each squadron go into hyper ASAP and maneuvers opposite the planned fleet move. They will pop out of hyper as soon as 8th goes into hyper and assume command of the missiles in flight.
I think the hyper generator cycle times for SDs makes, at least the fancier version of, the jump to hyper variant of this scenario a bit questionable.


RFC's infodump on hyper generators says a 8 mton SD needs a minimum of 4 minutes to get into hyper; and that's from 'Standby Readiness' with capacitors fully charged. We also know that from 'Powered Down' it's 32 minutes.

Presumably when you drop into n-space the capacitors are not fully charged (because you just used the hyper generator) so the minimum time before you can hyper out again would be somewhere between those two values - to allow for additional time to recharge the capacitors. It's probably closer to whatever the time is for 'Routine Readiness', which unfortunately he didn't give us either.

If you're right about the 12-15 minute flight time of the missiles then there's probably enough time to get the capacitors recharged and still have the necessary 4 minutes left to actually transition; but I definitely don't think there's time to recharge, cycle, and then drop back to n-space again during that limited flight time.
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Re: Honorverse series, the future..?
Post by kzt   » Wed May 14, 2014 1:08 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:If you're right about the 12-15 minute flight time of the missiles then there's probably enough time to get the capacitors recharged and still have the necessary 4 minutes left to actually transition; but I definitely don't think there's time to recharge, cycle, and then drop back to n-space again during that limited flight time.

Yeah, David is a bit parsimonious with info sometimes.

The concept was to trap the responding RMN forces inside the RZ, so I would tend to expect that it would take a while before they would actually decide to completely modify the plan. The logical responses when they realize that there is an entire fleet armed with Apollo is a) surrender or b) to send 5th off to blow up the infrastructure around Gryphon and 2nd to blow up the Spinx orbital infrastructure and hope that this cripples the RMN enough for you to get some sort of settlement. Bringing in 5th to get blown to dust bunnies along with 2nd is not terribly logical, particularity as the RHN CO KNOWs that the RMN 3rd fleet can't be that far away. But from the PoV of 8th fleet having 5th show up by surprise is pretty much worst case.
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