Ukraine

This is the real issue for Russia,

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=rs&v=31

Putin may save Russia from demographic oblivion by inspiring them to start procreating rather than just fornicating.

Angela Merkel is not inspiring Germans to procreate or fornicate,

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=31

namelessfly wrote:Putin would like very much to secure Ukraine's industrial capacity (or the portion in Crimea, how much?), but what he really wants is more Russians to expand Russia's population base.

You obsess about something that is effectively irrelevant.

Tenshinai wrote:

namelessfly wrote:Putin would like very much to secure Ukraine's industrial capacity (or the portion in Crimea, how much?), but what he really wants is more Russians to expand Russia's population base.

You obsess about something that is effectively irrelevant.

Actually nameless is quite right it this instance, I think. I admit my observations are limited to certain SF related russian forums, but there is a steady stream of new russian SF /and other/ literature /some of good, some of really bad quality/ that takes on the theme of reviving Russia, increasing the ethnic russian population and instilling specific qualities in the younger generations. There is a certain impression that such books are encouraged from on high, and the overall feel I have is that the reception is positive. Add to that some of the legislation passed by the Russian Duma/parliament/ concerning education and familly support and some trends start to come to focus.

Add to that the population situation in the Far East of Russia, where immigrants of chinese dessent are more and more common, while the russian population decreases steadily /mainly because of emigration due to the lower overal quality of life/, and you can see that increasing the latter is a major issue for Russia.

On the latter. Just for the sake of being correct. Contrary to some opinions I saw - not sure if it was on these forums,sorry if I'm wrong, but too tired to look for the actual post , most of the territory of today's Russia in the Far East was never populated by Chinese or under chinese rule. Some of the territory of the Russian Empire south of the Amur river was populated by manchurians, who in the 17th century invaded and overtook Ming China. Now, they might have been at some point under chinese rule, but have little in common with the nations of central and south China, and taking in mind the way the Chinese have looked at the world for most of their history /as in China and the Chinese nation being the center and most important part of it and all other nations being semicultured barbarians, that can, maybe, possibly, at some point reach enlightenment/ there is little justification for regarding the region as inherently chinese. An argument can be made /although not a very convincing one/ for the possible right of China concerning some of the territory of Russia south of the Amur river. The actual nations inhabiting the region are still very much present, although somewhat diluted by intramarrriages with russians and other nations. So China may harbor desires for the Russian Far East/and may in fact need it relatively more from purely economic reasons, which does not in fact justify the want/, but these desires are not based on any clear and precise "previous ownership". China has /or I think it does/ the economic resources to try to overtake the region by economic means. How feasible or desirable that is I cannot judge - not enough information.
Now, if the chinese population of the Russian Far East drastically increases, then a serious argument might be made in the future for a seccesion of the region from Russia and an eventual unification with China. The most recent figures I have are from 2004, and show an overal figure of 400 000-500 000 total citisens of chinese nationality living and working /most of them temporary/ in Russia, with some 300 000 - 330 000 of them in the Russian Far East. Comparing that with the overal Far East population of more than 6 mil. people - well, it is way too early to state an actual threat.
Two last points.
One, there is a statement from President Putin from around the time of the aformentioned figures that there is a danger of Russia loosing its Far East - in 40 or more years and if nothing is done to prevent it.
Two, there is an opinion, shared by some russian and chinese observers that the threat of China annexing the russian Far East is only imagined and used as a tool do worsen the relationship between the two nations.

You have the right to believe anything your heart desires . There are arguments enough for and against any theory imaginable.

kiddmeier wrote:So China may harbor desires for the Russian Far East/and may in fact need it relatively more from purely economic reasons

Well of course it does.

Is it likely to ACT on that desire or need?
No.

kiddmeier wrote:I admit my observations are limited to certain SF related russian forums, but there is a steady stream of new russian SF /and other/ literature /some of good, some of really bad quality/ that takes on the theme of reviving Russia, increasing the ethnic russian population and instilling specific qualities in the younger generations.

Which means you expect USA to start sprouting superheroes or zombies in the near future?
Considering how those genres have been popular lately.

Or maybe large murdersprees here in Sweden because of how Swedish criminal stories have essentially become a whole genre on its own?

kiddmeier wrote:There is a certain impression that such books are encouraged from on high, and the overall feel I have is that the reception is positive.

It´s a trend. Publishers see them selling, they buy more of it.

kiddmeier wrote:Add to that some of the legislation passed by the Russian Duma/parliament/ concerning education and familly support and some trends start to come to focus.

Ehm, that´s because the politicians have been trying to remedy the disastrous result of Jeltsins years in power. And statistics show that they are being successful.
Of course the trend here is obvious, they´re doing it on purpose!


Sorry no, you´re taking incidental pieces of non-evidence and raising it to fact, in a flurry of logic fails.

kiddmeier wrote:Now, if the chinese population of the Russian Far East drastically increases, then a serious argument might be made in the future for a seccesion of the region from Russia and an eventual unification with China.

You should probably take a look at overall and historical ethnicity of the area first.

The Russian far east is practically crawling with various minorities and people you would not call "ethnically ~Europan Russian", and they have zero interest in becoming Chinese regardless if they might look a little more like Chinese than Russians.

And China does NOT want to risk setting a precedent like that, as it could seriously come back and kick them in the ass later.

kiddmeier wrote:One, there is a statement from President Putin from around the time of the aformentioned figures that there is a danger of Russia loosing its Far East - in 40 or more years and if nothing is done to prevent it.

Yeah, but it wont be because of nativity or demographics.

kiddmeier wrote:Two, there is an opinion, shared by some russian and chinese observers that the threat of China annexing the russian Far East is only imagined and used as a tool do worsen the relationship between the two nations.

While it´s a real threat, it´s very much exploited, far far beyond the reality of the threat.

Tenshinai wrote:

kiddmeier wrote:There is a certain impression that such books are encouraged from on high, and the overall feel I have is that the reception is positive.

It´s a trend. Publishers see them selling, they buy more of it.

kiddmeier wrote:One, there is a statement from President Putin from around the time of the aformentioned figures that there is a danger of Russia loosing its Far East - in 40 or more years and if nothing is done to prevent it.

Yeah, but it wont be because of nativity or demographics.

I agree most of my previous points were just idle speculation.
The two I quote up there, though... I fear I was not clear enough why I consider them relevant at all - my bad.

Considering the books - my impression was from reading and on a couple occasions participating in online conversations /as this one here / that included some authors. Some of them shared that they are participating in the political life of their country on various levels and their ideas on these particular subjects are not dissmissed outright as fantasies. Maybe not how it should be done, but that it should be done at all. And literature has some power in shaping public opinion - I think you'll agree.
I am not saying it will have a sizable or even measurable effect, but it speaks that all kinds of efforts are made to change the situation. The point is not how successfull the eforts are, but that they are recognised as needed and are indeed made.

On the second point - my bad again, should have been more clear and quoted the damn thing .
Putin's statement commented on the facts that the number of ethnic/russian speaking russians in the Far East continues to decline/mostly emigration/ while the number of seasonal and long term /mostly asian/ immigrants rises every year. The language looked something like - "if we don't do something, in 40 years the russians in the Far East will speak Chinese, Korean or Japanese". Sorry I was not precize - I was looking at the thing when I posted and forgot no one else here would be able too.

The demographic realities are irrefutable.

If your society discourages women from having more than one or may be two children, your population will inevitably decline. It is simple math. Even those who shall be ignored can do the math. Given recent TFRs in Russia, the population will decline by about 1/3 each generation. Calculate (2/3)^n generations. It is not rocket science. Putin has inspired Rusiians to begin procreating rather than just fornicating. However; the birth rate remains well below replacement level and the cohort of women of childbearing age is greatly diminished.

China and Korea are exeriencing their own demographic implosions. However; China's current and projected population dwarfs Russia's and their economic development is negating the technological advantage thatbRussia once had.

As i was saing i am from Ukraine and i think you should know this.

UKRAINE , given that the guarantor of its security , according to the Budapest Memorandum , abandoned his duties , declares its withdrawal from the MOU, and begin restoring its nuclear capability, which it voluntarily, under the guarantee of States Parties of the Memorandum, got rid of .

Please bring this declaration to the whole international community .

via Google translate.

Everybody are talking about deep concern, and continuing doing bussiness whith RuSSia as usual.

We, as always in modern history, are on our own.

Taras_Potatos wrote:As i was saing i am from Ukraine and i think you should know this.

Well, it gets kinda problematic when ALL signatories have already broken the treaty.

And regardless if the "orange revolution" had popular support or not, USA/UK involvement was a blatantly clear breach even that early.

And if Ukraine itself had been a signatory, even IT would have already broken it repeatedly.

That makes it rather a mess.

There´s also the obvious argument that Crimea already before that treaty requested to leave Ukraine, but was not allowed to.

Taras_Potatos wrote:Everybody are talking about deep concern, and continuing doing bussiness whith RuSSia as usual.

You should probably recall that one of the reasons Russia have issues with Ukraine now, is that the coup placed neonazis in government, and in charge of the army.

Personally i´m totally embarassed that my foreign minister is running around cuddling up with the likes of Svoboda.

Taras_Potatos wrote:We, as always in modern history, are on our own.

To be blatant about it, Ukraine hasn´t exactly existed all that much as an independent state in modern history.

And much of that recent history has been hijacked by corrupted crooks that have pretty much fouled everything up so badly that something serious was bound to happen eventually.

ANOTHER issue is that Ukraine has "cried wolf" several times already, and in those cases it was their own doing (or probably more correctly, the corrupt politicians of Ukraine´s doing). I´m referring to the "gas war", in which Ukraine didn´t want to pay the same price as Russian customers, while stealing a shitload of gas, denying it while there was arguing happening, and then in the end one of your government ministers says that sure we took the gas, as if there was some sort of entitlement.

Do i agree with how Russia is doing this? Not at all. But i can definitely understand why it´s done. If i was in charge in Russia, the only choice would be HOW to act, not if.

And i disagree just as much with how USA and EU have been acting, AND also how Ukraine has been acting.

I wish you and your country the best of luck, but everybody involved are guilty of causing it and there is no simple escape clause.

I suggest you get used to Crimea not belonging to Ukraine, because frankly, it probably never should have. Just a matter of time before it would cause something to blow up.

I suggest you get used to Crimea not belonging to Ukraine, because frankly, it probably never should have. Just a matter of time before it would cause something to blow up.

And I'm sure you'd just love it if someone did something like this to YOUR country.

We, as always in modern history, are on our own.

I'm very sorry this is happening to you. I wish I had a magic wand to fix it but I don't. Obama's an idiot Kerry is worse. Whatever they were doing behind the scenes, it hurt more than it helped you. I agree you are on your own. Given how poorly Obama and Co have handled things so far, you're probably better off without them. My advice for what little it is worth is Putin is exploited the corruption, instability, and political division. The Ukraine must fix itself immediately if not sooner or he will destroy you from within.