BEOWULF - THE KARMA SUITSYA

Armed Neo-bob wrote:Cthia,
It has been kind of fun watching you twist tails, a bit, and I was going to go looking for infodumps and text to refute your arguments. But it has actually been a worthwhile exercise in some ways. Not in your roleplay--you get a bit excessive, which got responses, but not always to your point. But in looking at the Mandarins from the inside of their environment. Here are a few starting points.

snip

The only thing I'll plead guilty to, is criminal profiling.*


You give me a lot to respond to. I have to process your posts in dribs and drabs. They are densely packed with goodness. Or just densely packed. LOL

Before we get to your starting points, we've got to properly lay the foundation—a lot of excavation and then pouring the footing. In construction, you spend the most time "getting out of the ground." After which time, Lord willing and the creek don't rise, everything proceeds along fairly quickly. Unless someone tries to cut corners and is caught, bad weather, bankruptcies, or just plain using the wrong blueprint. Laying the foundation properly is a must, if you want to prevent engineering catastrophes like, say, the...

Leaning Tower of Pisa


So lets do this...


It's not twisted. It is simply following along the crooked path set by the Mandarins. We must not fail to follow through with how human nature makes most people think. Or how that same human nature makes them react to what they think.

And the excess is, well, following along on the same Solarian path of applying the following accumulative Mandarin' excesses to their criminal profile...

• Mandarins are greedy
• Mandarins are selfish
• Mandarins are corrupt
• Mandarins are clueless
• Mandarins are ignorant
• Mandarins are consistent

You gotta show more of a kinesthetic sense of where along the x-axis the Mandarins criminal elements are to be placed on the plot, if you want to figure them out. And if you can't accomplish this with the ignorant Solarians, you have less than a snowball's chance in h—e double hockey sticks—LL to understand the Malign -- which means a negative chance of finding Darius. You will never convince me that you are like the Solarian idiots taking up space at ONI. Believe [you me you] they have cornered the market on that one.

This uncanny ability is called profiling.*

Or a more forgiving accusation a teacher once said I have of uncannily becoming the character.

It is imperative to solving crimes, hence, if you want to understand the Mandarins, then you must learn to think like a criminal. We all agree that they're criminals. So, trying to analyze them and not also thinking like a criminal, well, is itself, criminal.

* In the Mandarins case, could it be considered racial profiling? After all, The Mandarins are their own race of "genetics gone horribly wrong."

cthia wrote:* In the Mandarins case, could it be considered racial profiling? After all, The Mandarins are their own race of "genetics gone horribly wrong."

I don't think it is genetics gone horribly wrong so much as a case of environmental Darwinism. Unfortunately for the Mandarins, the (internal & external political) environment is about to radically change and they will go extinct as class (at least in the short term), possibly on a personal basis as well, as a result of the environment change unless the can adapt to the new environment. So far, I've seen hardly any evidence that they can recognize 1) the environment is changing, 2) they can adapt to it, and 3) are willing to adapt to it.

Or as seen in Honorverse:

Mission of Honor, Chapter 26 wrote:“Pat’s raised a couple of good points, Your Majesty,” White Haven said, and Elizabeth returned her attention to him. “For one thing, she’s absolutely right about the inertia quotient, the way the currently accepted wisdom—whatever it happens to be—has a tendency to throttle anything that challenges it.” He snorted acerbically and shook his head. “I’ve had a little personal experience with that, if you remember that minor disagreement Sonja Hemphill and I had going on for so long. That much can happen to anybody, even someone who’s making a genuine effort to be intellectually honest and fair, if he’s not aware that he’s investing too much confidence in what he already ‘knows’ is true without making enough allowance for the fact that things might have changed. But she’s also right about the attitude we’re likely to see out of the SLN’s senior officers, too, because they’re not going to be anywhere near as interested in intellectual honesty as they are in covering their arses. I never thought I’d say this about anyone, but compared to quite a few of the Sollies’ most senior officers, Edward Janacek was competent, farsighted, and thoughtful.”
“I wouldn’t go quite that far, Hamish,” Caparelli interjected dryly. “Almost, and I’ll grant you the Sollies are probably even worse, but nobody could actually make Janacek look good.”
“All right.” White Haven nodded, accepting the correction. “But my point stands. These people have been gaming the system for so long, without believing for a moment there could possibly be any realistic threat to the system, that their very first thoughts are going to focus on making sure nothing threatens their personal positions within the system. Some of them will be stupid enough to try to make it all go away by suppressing—what was it you called it, Pat? ‘Any unfortunate little evidence’?—that could possibly implicate them when it comes time to play the blame game. And others are simply going to be so unaccustomed to thinking about external threats they literally don’t recognize one when they actually see it. Or not until it’s too late, at least.”

Italics are the author's, boldface is my emphasis.

cthia wrote:So Beowulf decided to finally take the moral high ground and divorce the League like they've been meaning to do for quite some time because the Mandarins, who were elected, had become corrupt criminals.

Just a correction, the Mandarins are NOT elected. They're the perminent undersecretaries; the highest level of the "non-policital" civil service who are supposed to just provide expertise and continuity as the elected political officials they report to change. "Her glare settled on Innokentiy Kolokoltsov, Permanent Senior Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs and the acknowledged senior member of “the Mandarins,” the five unelected bureaucrats who truly ran the Solarian League." [SoV]
But in practice they've seized control and made the elected officials they theoretically report to simply rubber stamps or puppets to the "Mandarins".

Joat42 wrote:Fifth, do you think the Mandarins would have listened to anyone saying it was a trap? I doubt it, since they already didn't trust Beowulf - because Beowulf wouldn't give in to the Mandarins. Also, Manticore have been trying to set up talks with the League but the league have consistently ignored them.

And how was it a trap? Manitcore specifically sent word to the League that they were aware an invasion fleet was on its way, stated that if it did cross the hyper limit that that would be an act of war by the Solarian League against the Star Empire of Manticore, that Manticore was willing and able to defend itself against this military incursion, and begged the League to send somebody, anybody, with authority and orders to send Filaretta away without causing that act of war.

They may not have specifically pointed to Beowulf as their source but the Mandarins knew Raging Justice wouldn't be a surprise, and had time to call it off. But like you said, they refused to listen - but even then Manticore did it's best to resolve the invasion, while maintaining their sovereignty, without loss of life. (The "trap" was only plan B)

cthia wrote:So Beowulf decided to finally take the moral high ground and divorce the League like they've been meaning to do for quite some time because the Mandarins, who were elected, had become corrupt criminals.

Jonathan_S wrote:Just a correction, the Mandarins are NOT elected. They're the perminent undersecretaries; the highest level of the "non-policital" civil service who are supposed to just provide expertise and continuity as the elected political officials they report to change. "Her glare settled on Innokentiy Kolokoltsov, Permanent Senior Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs and the acknowledged senior member of “the Mandarins,” the five unelected bureaucrats who truly ran the Solarian League." [SoV]
But in practice they've seized control and made the elected officials they theoretically report to simply rubber stamps or puppets to the "Mandarins".

Joat42 wrote:Fifth, do you think the Mandarins would have listened to anyone saying it was a trap? I doubt it, since they already didn't trust Beowulf - because Beowulf wouldn't give in to the Mandarins. Also, Manticore have been trying to set up talks with the League but the league have consistently ignored them.

Jonathan_S wrote:And how was it a trap? Manitcore specifically sent word to the League that they were aware an invasion fleet was on its way, stated that if it did cross the hyper limit that that would be an act of war by the Solarian League against the Star Empire of Manticore, that Manticore was willing and able to defend itself against this military incursion, and begged the League to send somebody, anybody, with authority and orders to send Filaretta away without causing that act of war.

They may not have specifically pointed to Beowulf as their source but the Mandarins knew Raging Justice wouldn't be a surprise, and had time to call it off. But like you said, they refused to listen - but even then Manticore did it's best to resolve the invasion, while maintaining their sovereignty, without loss of life. (The "trap" was only plan B)

I enquired about the "election" process before and never got a satisfactory answer. How did they "initially" get their positions? They didn't appoint themselves did they?

I addressed the trap thingy elsewhere. One of Beowulf's mistakes, IMO, is that they didn't inform the Mandarins that the RMN knew they were coming. The RMN did that. But the RMN is a batch of neobarbs. Beowulf isn't. The Mandarins simply thought the RMN was bluffing. Of course, any idiot navy would have known the gorilla was on its way. The Mandarins didn't trust anything they said. Why wouldn't they try and bluff themselves out of the path of the oncoming juggernaut? "The Manties are pissing in their boots."

The Mandarins didn't trust their own intel or the undoctored data from their own captured ships sent to them by the Manties. You think they believed the Manties when they said they knew they were coming?

Regardless, the SLN didn't get the memo. They were surprised that the Manties knew. When the Salamander ran all of it down about the name of the mission and all, Filareta was embarrassed! The Mandarins were informed, by neobarbs, not by Beowulf. The SLN, and perhaps the League citizens of Old Earth, didn't have a clue.

cthia wrote:

cthia wrote:So Beowulf decided to finally take the moral high ground and divorce the League like they've been meaning to do for quite some time because the Mandarins, who were elected, had become corrupt criminals.

Jonathan_S wrote:Just a correction, the Mandarins are NOT elected. They're the perminent undersecretaries; the highest level of the "non-policital" civil service who are supposed to just provide expertise and continuity as the elected political officials they report to change. "Her glare settled on Innokentiy Kolokoltsov, Permanent Senior Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs and the acknowledged senior member of “the Mandarins,” the five unelected bureaucrats who truly ran the Solarian League." [SoV]
But in practice they've seized control and made the elected officials they theoretically report to simply rubber stamps or puppets to the "Mandarins".

Joat42 wrote:Fifth, do you think the Mandarins would have listened to anyone saying it was a trap? I doubt it, since they already didn't trust Beowulf - because Beowulf wouldn't give in to the Mandarins. Also, Manticore have been trying to set up talks with the League but the league have consistently ignored them.

Jonathan_S wrote:And how was it a trap? Manitcore specifically sent word to the League that they were aware an invasion fleet was on its way, stated that if it did cross the hyper limit that that would be an act of war by the Solarian League against the Star Empire of Manticore, that Manticore was willing and able to defend itself against this military incursion, and begged the League to send somebody, anybody, with authority and orders to send Filaretta away without causing that act of war.

They may not have specifically pointed to Beowulf as their source but the Mandarins knew Raging Justice wouldn't be a surprise, and had time to call it off. But like you said, they refused to listen - but even then Manticore did it's best to resolve the invasion, while maintaining their sovereignty, without loss of life. (The "trap" was only plan B)

I enquired about the "election" process before and never got a satisfactory answer. How did they "initially" get their positions? They didn't appoint themselves did they?

I addressed the trap thingy elsewhere. One of Beowulf's mistakes, IMO, is that they didn't inform the Mandarins that the RMN knew they were coming. The RMN did that. But the RMN is a batch of neobarbs. Beowulf isn't. The Mandarins simply thought the RMN was bluffing. Of course, any idiot navy would have known the gorilla was on its way. The Mandarins didn't trust anything they said. Why wouldn't they try and bluff themselves out of the path of the oncoming juggernaut? "The Manties are pissing in their boots."

The Mandarins didn't trust their own intel or the undoctored data from their own captured ships sent to them by the Manties. You think they believed the Manties when they said they knew they were coming?

Regardless, the SLN didn't get the memo. They were surprised that the Manties knew. When the Salamander ran all of it down about the name of the mission and all, Filareta was embarrassed! The Mandarins were informed, by neobarbs, not by Beowulf. The SLN, and perhaps the League citizens of Old Earth, didn't have a clue.

Civil servants don't have to be appointed. They apply for jobs in the civil service, they get themselves promoted. The top jobs may require a board, but the board could easily be made up of 'non-political' appointees.

Check out EU or UK procedures. But yes, a non political civil service makes its own appointments. The system works perfectly well - until they stop seeing themselves as civil servants, and start seeing themselves as in charge of the elected officials.

Filareta was effectively out of communication range when the Manticoran Ambassador informed the SL that they knew he was coming. That's why the Manties had to offer a shortcut through the Junction if only the Mandarins would send someone to order him to stand down.

cthia wrote:I addressed the trap thingy elsewhere. One of Beowulf's mistakes, IMO, is that they didn't inform the Mandarins that the RMN knew they were coming. The RMN did that. But the RMN is a batch of neobarbs. Beowulf isn't. The Mandarins simply thought the RMN was bluffing. Of course, any idiot navy would have known the gorilla was on its way. The Mandarins didn't trust anything they said. Why wouldn't they try and bluff themselves out of the path of the oncoming juggernaut? "The Manties are pissing in their boots."

That's not in the book. Just you projecting again.

What Kolokoltsov thought was that the Manties may be bluffing but regardless he thought it was better to let it play out because the alternatives also sucked.

If you happen to have the book near you - just read chapter 14:

Innokentiy Kolokoltsov, ART, Chapter 14, excerpt wrote:Of course, even if they were actually terrified, they’d be sending him exactly this sort of correspondence. Diplomatic threats cost nothing, and the temptation to run a bluff, to convince Kolokoltsov they could do to Filareta what they’d done to Crandall—especially if they really couldn’t—had to be overwhelming. If they could frighten him into calling Filareta off, they ran the table without having to fire a single missile. Which would also just happen to save them if they didn’t have any missiles left to fire.

Which is all well and good, but doesn’t change the fact that they may actually be able to do exactly what Carmichael’s threatening. And if they are, and if they really are prepared to hand all their notes to someone like O’Hanrahan…

His expression turned bleak as he contemplated just how damaging the publication of Carmichael’s correspondence could prove if things went to hell on Filareta. Yet it would be almost as damaging to take the ambassador’s “advice.” Sending the stand down orders Manticore was demanding could only be seen as a sign of weakness. It would damage the League’s prestige still further, and that could only worsen the consequences they all feared in the Verge and the Shell, which didn’t even consider the personal consequences to him and his colleagues. Or, for that matter, the potential constitutional train wreck when everyone began assigning blame and, in the process, revealed just how threadbare the pretense of representative government in the Solarian League truly was.

But if we don’t order him to stand down and it turns out remotely as badly as Carmichael’s warning us it will, we’ll have all of those consequences plus the deaths of thousands of our own spacers!

ldwechsler wrote:Remember that any time a ship went through it cause a distortion. One ship would only cause a minor one. Note that even with small task forces, the Manty navy came out one by one.

We know that 17 at once would cancel out the junction for days. How about ten? At what point would there be an hour's break? Let's say it's six. So six ships go through and surrender. Then another six an hour later and they do it, etc.

Beowulf prevented the loss of another fleet.

Delay goes up with the square of the mass. At one point I did a spreadsheet to try to curve fit the few known delay points. Best estimate is that on the Manticoran junction around 48.5 million tons would shut it down for an hour. That's a bit more than the mass of 7 Scientist-class SDs (7*6.8 million = 47.6 million)

So nice job with your guess. Though a small mass transit that size seems to be the worst of both worlds. Less ships per hour than single file, less concentrated firepower than a max transit -- but all far more suicidal than attacking after reaching the system through hyper.

Jonathan_S wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:Remember that any time a ship went through it cause a distortion. One ship would only cause a minor one. Note that even with small task forces, the Manty navy came out one by one.

We know that 17 at once would cancel out the junction for days. How about ten? At what point would there be an hour's break? Let's say it's six. So six ships go through and surrender. Then another six an hour later and they do it, etc.

Beowulf prevented the loss of another fleet.

Delay goes up with the square of the mass. At one point I did a spreadsheet to try to curve fit the few known delay points. Best estimate is that on the Manticoran junction around 48.5 million tons would shut it down for an hour. That's a bit more than the mass of 7 Scientist-class SDs (7*6.8 million = 47.6 million)

So nice job with your guess. Though a small mass transit that size seems to be the worst of both worlds. Less ships per hour than single file, less concentrated firepower than a max transit -- but all far more suicidal than attacking after reaching the system through hyper.

That's why Beowulf actually helped the SLN. Had they sent more than 17 ships at once they might have had a total disaster, losing all of them and shutting the junction for days.

If they sent 17, they would have been on their own for a couple of days.

At seven, it would have close for an hour. And seven ships would be destroyed or taken. And the next group could go in.

One by one would be tough since they would start getting hit right from the beginning. A couple might get in before a surrender took place but if there were a battle, each new ship would present a really nice target.

ldwechsler wrote:
So nice job with your guess. Though a small mass transit that size seems to be the worst of both worlds. Less ships per hour than single file, less concentrated firepower than a max transit -- but all far more suicidal than attacking after reaching the system through hyper.

That's why Beowulf actually helped the SLN. Had they sent more than 17 ships at once they might have had a total disaster, losing all of them and shutting the junction for days.

If they sent 17, they would have been on their own for a couple of days.

At seven, it would have close for an hour. And seven ships would be destroyed or taken. And the next group could go in.

One by one would be tough since they would start getting hit right from the beginning. A couple might get in before a surrender took place but if there were a battle, each new ship would present a really nice target.[/quote]
Look at the 8th fleet transit before the BoM turkey shoot. How many SDs did they mass transit?

kzt wrote:

ldwechsler wrote:
So nice job with your guess. Though a small mass transit that size seems to be the worst of both worlds. Less ships per hour than single file, less concentrated firepower than a max transit -- but all far more suicidal than attacking after reaching the system through hyper.

That's why Beowulf actually helped the SLN. Had they sent more than 17 ships at once they might have had a total disaster, losing all of them and shutting the junction for days.

If they sent 17, they would have been on their own for a couple of days.

At seven, it would have close for an hour. And seven ships would be destroyed or taken. And the next group could go in.

One by one would be tough since they would start getting hit right from the beginning. A couple might get in before a surrender took place but if there were a battle, each new ship would present a really nice target.

Look at the 8th fleet transit before the BoM turkey shoot. How many SDs did they mass transit?[/quote]

Textev from EoH states that had White Haven made a mass transit of Eighth Fleet's SDs to Basilisk in response to the Peeps attack, he could have transited 22 SDs which would have loccked down the junction for 17 hours.

I doubt that Tsang would have gotten a different result by mass transiting her Sds than by coming through one at a time. Either way they would have been mascured.



Don

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