Korea

Tenshinai wrote:

KNick wrote:He was raised without a clue, so someone had better hit him with a clue stick. That someone has to be China. If China does not shut him down and he heads south, all hell will follow. It is possible we will see the third use of a nuclear weapon for war.

Went to school in Switzerland, so unlikely he´s completely clueless.

But the culture in north korea of them always being in the right, and the only sane people in the room, coupled with aggresive high ups in the command structure may distort his view to such an extent that he considers what he is doing the only viable option. not clueless, merely drawing a conclusion from half the data.

Just because he went to school doesn't mean he was educated. Nor does it mean anything stuck.

Tenshinai wrote:

KNick wrote:He was raised without a clue, so someone had better hit him with a clue stick. That someone has to be China. If China does not shut him down and he heads south, all hell will follow. It is possible we will see the third use of a nuclear weapon for war.

Went to school in Switzerland, so unlikely he´s completely clueless.

Donnachaidh wrote:Just because he went to school doesn't mean he was educated. Nor does it mean anything stuck.

Went to school for years in ANOTHER COUNTRY.
Impossible to avoid exposure to "nonconformists" like that.

Tenshinai wrote:

Donnachaidh wrote:Just because he went to school doesn't mean he was educated. Nor does it mean anything stuck.

Went to school for years in ANOTHER COUNTRY.
Impossible to avoid exposure to "nonconformists" like that.

and then spent more years in an entire country of yes men. a country whose lower downs probably distort data to get the higher ups pleased in their progress, or to show their adherence to the party line...........

Look at it from his point of view. Every time his dad did this he got billions of dollars and a stern talking to. So if he needs money, why not act this way. Positive feedback works.

biochem wrote:Look at it from his point of view. Every time his dad did this he got billions of dollars and a stern talking to. So if he needs money, why not act this way. Positive feedback works.

So how can we give him a large enough negative response to stop him then? with the way Nth Korea is militarized, i wouldnt be suprised if this requires a nuke, now before they can build more.

On paper, the NK military looks scary. Certainly, it has a huge amount of manpower and the potential to do a lot of damage.

The reality is that, despite its numbers, NK's military has huge problems:
Units have to pretty much rob the civilian populace in some areas just to get enough to eat.
NK armor and aircraft are mostly Cold War hand-me-downs (or knock-offs thereof). To be clear, not hand-me-downs from the Cold War, but hand-me-downs NK got DURING the Cold War.
Fuel is so scarce that training, especially for their air force, is almost non-existant.

Given the state of things, I suspect that if the NK military was ordered to "Go South", we'd be hearing about it on CNN long before most of NK's rank-and-file had actually left their barracks.

NK now disallowing access to the Kaesong coop industrial area... Now that´s potentially seriously worrying.

With that being their primary "hard" currency source (2bn$/y?), messing with its operations is blatantly stupid and pretty much unheard of, as it´s mostly been kept running normally during all previous "arguments".

7thsealord wrote:On paper, the NK military looks scary. Certainly, it has a huge amount of manpower and the potential to do a lot of damage.

The reality is that, despite its numbers, NK's military has huge problems:
Units have to pretty much rob the civilian populace in some areas just to get enough to eat.
NK armor and aircraft are mostly Cold War hand-me-downs (or knock-offs thereof). To be clear, not hand-me-downs from the Cold War, but hand-me-downs NK got DURING the Cold War.
Fuel is so scarce that training, especially for their air force, is almost non-existant.

Given the state of things, I suspect that if the NK military was ordered to "Go South", we'd be hearing about it on CNN long before most of NK's rank-and-file had actually left their barracks.

Not to mention that their tanks are no match for the Abrams tanks that we have there not to mention the highly upgraded M60 tanks the south koreans have. Then there is the =highly integrated artillery that can practically drop a round in your back pocket. Having worked with artillery on a extensive basis i do have a fair idea of what american cannon can do and its scary.

ISTM that the Good News here is that the Northers
closed the gates while the Southrons were at home
in the South, instead of doing it during business
hours and trapping them in Kaesong.

HTM

Tenshinai wrote:NK now disallowing access to the Kaesong coop industrial area... Now that´s potentially seriously worrying.

With that being their primary "hard" currency source (2bn$/y?), messing with its operations is blatantly stupid and pretty much unheard of, as it´s mostly been kept running normally during all previous "arguments".