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To End in Fire

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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Theemile   » Thu May 06, 2021 8:50 am

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Eagleeye wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Yildun is also not part of the League, so the GA invading and seizing them would be an act of aggression against a third party. Not neutral party, but at least a third party. It might be justified, if TIY is found guilty of accusations like arms smuggling, but I don't think the GA will go there. Instead, it'll put pressure on the SL and SLN to ensure TIY stops the smuggling and holding the SL responsible for it.


What SLN? At the moment, there isn't a SLN at all - aside from some cruiser squadrons or SD-divisions maybe, which are stationed in other member systems. Anything else is scrap metal. And I wonder how long these squadrons and divisions remain a part of the SLN - in other words: how many of these systems decide to leave the Solarian League and take the Navy ships and crews with them as soon as the news about what happened in the Sol System gets there.

Any solarian ships in the Fringe were already declared pirats, if they don't return to the League proper in time (4 weeks? Something like that. iIrc). But I doubt, that many of them will (or even can) return - because that depends to a great part on the decisions of the local or regional OFS-potentate. If they plan to turn into War-Lords ... well

Anyway - At the moment, there is no Solarian League Navy. Not as a coherent force you have to reckon with. And there wont be for at least some years to come.


The SLN still has 1/2 it's active Battle Fleet and >90% of it's active Frontier Fleet (prior to hostilities, FF had 4400 BCs alone; we've only seen several hundred destroyed.) The BF reserve was reduced by ~25%. That's a lot of ships destroyed, but more left untouched. Yes, the GA has declared that any ships seen outside their own space are pirates, but the SL has a lot of space. Maybe the rest of the SL will come apart and the SLN will fracture - but that hasn't really started yet outside of Maya that we know of.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu May 06, 2021 11:59 am

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Theemile wrote:The SLN still has 1/2 it's active Battle Fleet and >90% of it's active Frontier Fleet (prior to hostilities, FF had 4400 BCs alone; we've only seen several hundred destroyed.) The BF reserve was reduced by ~25%. That's a lot of ships destroyed, but more left untouched. Yes, the GA has declared that any ships seen outside their own space are pirates, but the SL has a lot of space. Maybe the rest of the SL will come apart and the SLN will fracture - but that hasn't really started yet outside of Maya that we know of.


Right.

FAdm. Kingsford may be the head of a paper tiger, but there is still an SLN. Even if they had simply retired all their ships as obsolete scrap -- which they would never do, since those ships are still effective against everyone except the GA -- the SLN would still exist as an entity.

And therefore he and the new political masters above him can be held responsible for the actions of their industrial contractors. If someone gets money from the SLN, they should be transparent and the SLN should conduct audits periodically to make sure that ships don't disappear when ordered to be scrapped.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by PeterZ   » Thu May 06, 2021 6:33 pm

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With respect to the Solarian League 2.0 in TEiF my biggest question is just how many core worlds want to actually pay for a robust SLN 2.0 under federal government control?

That influence will manifest in one of two scenarios; 1) enough protectorate and non-core worlds will want to join the SLN 2.0 to dilute individual core world influence or 2) that influence remains constant or increases in the new League. I suspect the number of protectorates strongly preferring to join the new League is small. Those with a less powerful preference will choose independence and an alternate alliance. That leaves the make up of the new league to how many core worlds remain.

So just how many core worlds are more pissed off\worried that a federal government will act against member worlds as the SLN did in Case Buccaneer than are concerned about the lack of economic opportunity inherent in belonging to a smaller star nation? Any SL 2.0 that is both hostile AND a threat to the GA has to be driven by a majority of core worlds seeking economic dominance. The core worlds that are more concerned about being preyed upon by their federal government will have serious reservations about joining such a league. So the more rabidly anti-GA the League 2.0 is, the more likely the GA is to have new members from the core worlds that worry about being preyed upon. Bottom line is that the SLN 2.0 will not have an overwhelming industrial capacity backing it. The key driver for the industrial capacity fueling any navy in the next few story arcs will be just how well an alliance develops their marginal alliance members or member nations.

Can't wait to see how this all plays out!
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Theemile   » Thu May 06, 2021 8:15 pm

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PeterZ wrote:With respect to the Solarian League 2.0 in TEiF my biggest question is just how many core worlds want to actually pay for a robust SLN 2.0 under federal government control?

That influence will manifest in one of two scenarios; 1) enough protectorate and non-core worlds will want to join the SLN 2.0 to dilute individual core world influence or 2) that influence remains constant or increases in the new League. I suspect the number of protectorates strongly preferring to join the new League is small. Those with a less powerful preference will choose independence and an alternate alliance. That leaves the make up of the new league to how many core worlds remain.

So just how many core worlds are more pissed off\worried that a federal government will act against member worlds as the SLN did in Case Buccaneer than are concerned about the lack of economic opportunity inherent in belonging to a smaller star nation? Any SL 2.0 that is both hostile AND a threat to the GA has to be driven by a majority of core worlds seeking economic dominance. The core worlds that are more concerned about being preyed upon by their federal government will have serious reservations about joining such a league. So the more rabidly anti-GA the League 2.0 is, the more likely the GA is to have new members from the core worlds that worry about being preyed upon. Bottom line is that the SLN 2.0 will not have an overwhelming industrial capacity backing it. The key driver for the industrial capacity fueling any navy in the next few story arcs will be just how well an alliance develops their marginal alliance members or member nations.

Can't wait to see how this all plays out!


As we were told at the beginning of the series, our story begins at the end of a long period of Galactic peace and in the end, that period will end.

Given that, my money is that the League will splinter long term (probably for the very reasons you state), as factions splinter off due to one outrage or another. The League will bounce back and forth in knee-jerk reactions to the crisis du Jour, each time causing the next crisis with their ham fisted handlings of the previous.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Brigade XO   » Thu May 06, 2021 9:07 pm

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1) By the time the Constitution for SL 2.0 is hammered out, Kingsford should have control of all the remaining SLN ships that exist that he is going to get. He....and others...are going to have to "take care of" those which don't respond to the "return and or report" notice along with the various orders that accompany it.

2) The existing SLN warships are more or less capable of keeping the peace within the nominal SL 2.0 until somebody does one of two things A) shows up with GA or near GA tech or B) puts together a fleet of SLN level tech and starts capturing systems. At which point the SL 2.0 is going to have to call on the GL for help,

3) First, how many Core systems that remain with SL 2.0 can build anything larger than a CA or BC? How many of them are going to want to? Sure, if the League pays them, they would probably be happy to start producing DNs or SDs but who is going to order them?
Second, I'm sure Technodyne and other, non-SL 2.0 systems that have the capacity to build SD would gladly build them...but again, who is going to order them? NOBODY- with the possible exception of Mannerheim- had GA equivalent tech (theirs being hidden Alignment stuff depending on what they may have other than Cataphracts).

4) Opperation Buccaneer trashed several highly developed systems and the GA did the same (except the habitat distruction) to Sol, so a lot of places are going to be building equipment and fabrication failures for those systems. So a lot of industrial capacity is going to go that way----to the places who can afford or get the financing to start their recovery.

Guess who will (right after there is a very thorough sweep with Treecat accompanies investigators) will start replacing they legacy SDF with GA warships etc.....Beowulf.....who also has its manufacturing firmly facing 1st Manticore and probably Grayson and then their own existing trading partners who suffered under Buccanner.

5) RFC is a deep student of history. At the moment in the Honorverse there are a lot of systems who are going to want to create their own SDFs, at least with current SLN tech, but they are going to need people to crew the ships and create the leaderships (and buracrasy and logistics tail) to support those SDFs. What happened at the end of the Napoleonic Wars in the 19th Century? A whole lot of troops and officers of various nations were demobilized. A lot of them found employment again at least as soldiers but the same thing is probably going to happen here. RMN and RHN are not likely to start cut everything down to bare bones for the foreseeable future but there are several hundred thousand of SLN personal who are still POWs of the GA and Kingsford has neither the ships to crew nor is he likely to have the budgets to keep all of the existing SLN (including POWs) on payroll even when SL 2.0 gets organized.
So there are going to be a LOT of people who are at least trained Naval personnel (such as they are in the SLN) and I expect to see a lot of them signing on with the SDFs of the already independent or shortly to leave the SL systems.

6) Even if the systems of what constitutes the former SL and related independent systems plus the now former clients of OFS all AGREE to not extract punishment against Manticore Merchant Marine shipping (and there dam well have better have been clauses specifically relating to that in the "details" hammered out between Harrington and Kingsford and APPROVED by SL 2.0) it is going to take a while for both the MMM (and others) to get back into the trade routes and logistic chains of the "area formerly known as the SL and client states" and the build up of "SL" and independent system merchant shipping to move goods between systems into, out of and around between the systems impacted by the Lacoon I & II.

Should be fun to watch. :)
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri May 07, 2021 12:08 am

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Brigade XO wrote:1) By the time the Constitution for SL 2.0 is hammered out, Kingsford should have control of all the remaining SLN ships that exist that he is going to get. He....and others...are going to have to "take care of" those which don't respond to the "return and or report" notice along with the various orders that accompany it.


Agreed. I've been predicting this for some time that Kingsford will insist on being given that right and duty from the GA, thus being allowed to leave League borders without being labelled as pirate. Those who don't return are his problem children. And in doing so, he can get his crews to actually operate instead of run feel-good exercises.

2) The existing SLN warships are more or less capable of keeping the peace within the nominal SL 2.0 until somebody does one of two things A) shows up with GA or near GA tech or B) puts together a fleet of SLN level tech and starts capturing systems. At which point the SL 2.0 is going to have to call on the GL for help,


Quantity is a quality of its own. No one has a navy anywhere nearly as big as the SLN, even after all the losses during the war. The 4000 Nevadas and Indefatigables that were part of the FF alone are more than deterrent enough against almost everyone. So I don't think (B) is a reasonable possibility at all.

(A) and GA-level or near-GA-level tech is not impossible. We know that there were several other parties observing both Manticore-Havenite wars and those probably didn't have their blinders on. So they may have a headstart in developing tech on the SLN... but the SLN will have deeper pockets and a vaster and more educated tech base to do that with. So I don't expect anyone can develop GA-level tech much earlier than the SLN can do the same, at least not sufficiently early to offset the quantity imbalance.

All this is excepting the MAlign influence, though.

3) First, how many Core systems that remain with SL 2.0 can build anything larger than a CA or BC? How many of them are going to want to? Sure, if the League pays them, they would probably be happy to start producing DNs or SDs but who is going to order them?
Second, I'm sure Technodyne and other, non-SL 2.0 systems that have the capacity to build SD would gladly build them...but again, who is going to order them? NOBODY- with the possible exception of Mannerheim- had GA equivalent tech (theirs being hidden Alignment stuff depending on what they may have other than Cataphracts).


Your first question has two aspects. Talking about ability to build in terms of industrial capability, existence of shipyards, capital, education, etc., I'm sure there are a lot of systems that gather most of those and a few that gather all of them. So yes, there should be a few Core systems that could build ships of any size and quite many others that could be there in one year or two. But the other aspect is whether they will have the political will do to so. That I can't predict.

Actually, there's a third aspect: do they have to? Remaining shipyards in the control of the League may suffice to build everything they are going to need in the short- and medium-term anyway.

On your second question, I agree: no one should be ordering clearly-obsolete designs, but going back to the political question, don't underestimate the power of stupid politicians. And as I've said a few times, the corruption and graft machinery that existed will still need to be oiled, so there may be still be some completely useless orders being placed...

And no, Mannerheim didn't have GA-level tech. The MAlign did and does have something on the way there, but they've been careful to screen Mannerheim to avoid suspicion falling on the RF.

[...] but there are several hundred thousand of SLN personal who are still POWs of the GA and Kingsford has neither the ships to crew nor is he likely to have the budgets to keep all of the existing SLN (including POWs) on payroll even when SL 2.0 gets organized.
So there are going to be a LOT of people who are at least trained Naval personnel (such as they are in the SLN) and I expect to see a lot of them signing on with the SDFs of the already independent or shortly to leave the SL systems.


You're right about that, but please note what you said about the POWs. Those are actually Battle Fleet officers, those who didn't actually know how to run a Navy. They were only capable of feel-good training exercises and they were the ones who sponsored the largely useless Fleet 2000 "upgrades." They may be available and they may actually be those Kingsford will be glad to be rid of, but they will not be doing any favours to the systems they take up employment with!

For all the wrong reasons, the FF is the side of the SLN that did know how to operate ships. Aside from Byng's fleet and the depleted forces that were captured in Madras, the FF is largely intact.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by PeterZ   » Sun May 09, 2021 9:48 am

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Brigade XO wrote:
5) RFC is a deep student of history. At the moment in the Honorverse there are a lot of systems who are going to want to create their own SDFs, at least with current SLN tech, but they are going to need people to crew the ships and create the leaderships (and buracrasy and logistics tail) to support those SDFs. What happened at the end of the Napoleonic Wars in the 19th Century? A whole lot of troops and officers of various nations were demobilized. A lot of them found employment again at least as soldiers but the same thing is probably going to happen here. RMN and RHN are not likely to start cut everything down to bare bones for the foreseeable future but there are several hundred thousand of SLN personal who are still POWs of the GA and Kingsford has neither the ships to crew nor is he likely to have the budgets to keep all of the existing SLN (including POWs) on payroll even when SL 2.0 gets organized.
So there are going to be a LOT of people who are at least trained Naval personnel (such as they are in the SLN) and I expect to see a lot of them signing on with the SDFs of the already independent or shortly to leave the SL systems.

6) Even if the systems of what constitutes the former SL and related independent systems plus the now former clients of OFS all AGREE to not extract punishment against Manticore Merchant Marine shipping (and there dam well have better have been clauses specifically relating to that in the "details" hammered out between Harrington and Kingsford and APPROVED by SL 2.0) it is going to take a while for both the MMM (and others) to get back into the trade routes and logistic chains of the "area formerly known as the SL and client states" and the build up of "SL" and independent system merchant shipping to move goods between systems into, out of and around between the systems impacted by the Lacoon I & II.

Should be fun to watch. :)


Indeed it will be fun to watch! Let's take this in reverse order.
6) The old trade routes are dead. Well most of them anyway. The Verge, Fringe and Protectorate will need capital, infrastructure and education. The SL 2.0 has all those things but they do not have the trust of those systems that need it. The SEM has massive amounts of invested capital that can be redirected towards those developing worlds. Their top line industrial capacity will be focussed on rebuilding Grayson, Beowulf and the Old SKM. Haven however, has plenty of production capacity to devote to second tier commercial infrastructure and resource extraction projects.
This will result in a plethora of independent star nation clusters tied to the SEM economic system.

5) I seriously doubt the RMN will face personnel reductions. The SEM economic sphere will have expanded in a big way and the RMN needs to ride herd on those participating members. The RHN might face reductions as their ships become more automated. Both navies will shift towards more but smaller hulls, so the ratio of personnel per ton of naval ship will increase. So, while I agree that the SLN will be downsized, the GA will likely not see their personnel redirected into civilian employment.

Besides, the GA knows the malign is out there. They won't let their guard down enough to be sucker punched again.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun May 09, 2021 1:20 pm

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PeterZ wrote:5) I seriously doubt the RMN will face personnel reductions. The SEM economic sphere will have expanded in a big way and the RMN needs to ride herd on those participating members. The RHN might face reductions as their ships become more automated. Both navies will shift towards more but smaller hulls, so the ratio of personnel per ton of naval ship will increase. So, while I agree that the SLN will be downsized, the GA will likely not see their personnel redirected into civilian employment.

Besides, the GA knows the malign is out there. They won't let their guard down enough to be sucker punched again.


Indeed they are.

But please note the very last chapter of UH, when Queen Elizabeth is specifically talking about the need to demobilise from war. She mentions that the RHN will need to significantly reduce, since they can't sustain a 1000 SD(P) fleet without dedicating wartime resources not justifiable any more. As you alluded, there's a huge need for the RoH to redirect its investment into finishing the rebuild that started after the Theisman Coup (or even after the Pierre Reforms).

But she also explicitly mentions creating a reserve of RMN SD(P)s. Maybe you're right that we'll get an increase in hull quantity to compensate so those who want to continue in military service will continue to be able to do so. I expect that with the end of the war, the automatic reenlistment ends, so many enlisteds will opt to go back into the private sector, not to take up work with a foreign military. Ditto for many officers who've had enough.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by PeterZ   » Sun May 09, 2021 9:39 pm

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I recalled that part of UH. Reducing the number of active SDPs does not mean reducing the total hulls. The shift back into the RMN's traditional commerce protection posture will require more DD's and CL's than it did prior to 1900 PD. Currently, the SLN cannot patrol beyond the borders of the SL. They might be similarly circumspect when the SL 2.0 takes over the SLN. Between that and the likely reduction in size of the SLN post war, the galaxy will need commerce protection with precious few Stan nations capable to deliver it.

I see a massive increase in Rolands, the commerce protection DDs (forgot the class), wards and to a lesser degree Nikes and CLACs. The total hulls will increase significantly even if the total tonnage decreases.

I also believe the RMN will adopt novel approaches to commerce protection. Like loading the LAC module similar to the ones used on Ginger Lewis' ship into the hold of freighter that's part of a convoy. Saves manpower to protect mercies.

Anyway, I can't wait to read the book!
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon May 10, 2021 11:58 am

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PeterZ wrote:I see a massive increase in Rolands, the commerce protection DDs (forgot the class), wards and to a lesser degree Nikes and CLACs. The total hulls will increase significantly even if the total tonnage decreases.

I also believe the RMN will adopt novel approaches to commerce protection. Like loading the LAC module similar to the ones used on Ginger Lewis' ship into the hold of freighter that's part of a convoy. Saves manpower to protect mercies.

Anyway, I can't wait to read the book!


We've discussed loading LACs onto freighters and the conclusion is that it's not a good idea. That makes them military targets that can be attacked without "cruiser rules" and it also makes them unable to go to certain systems which can use the presence of military craft as an excuse to deny presence in their territorial volume. Not to mention that it significantly reduces the volume for cargo and increases maintenance complexity. Moreover, while the LACs have range, the home ship is still an eggshell doing no more than 150 gravities. Lose that and the LACs are stranded.

It's probably far easier to detach a small, commerce-protection DD or CL for this role. The actual ship can be swapped for another when they come back to a home port, so this one goes down for maintenance, but leaving the commercial freighters still running without downtime. The number of people assigned to the task is likely comparable.
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