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Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?

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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by cthia   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:19 am

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SharkHunter wrote:
cstar wrote:Relatively simple question, if the Alliance had known the actual combat effectiveness of Apollo, could 8th Fleet have, instead of attacking Solon, successfully attacked the Haven System and destroyed Capital Fleet? Would Giscard's forces have been able to participate? Would it have mattered if they did?

My own thoughts are that they probably could have executed a variant of Tourville's attack on Zanzibar. Come in, blow away either Capital Fleet or Giscard with Apollo, retreat out-system to reload, and go back in to kill whatever was left.


My guess -- based on some other battles -- is that yes, they could have taken Haven... but they would have had to correctly guess on how many missiles per to significantly mission kill enough SD(p)s to make a "non-Apollo" engagementt decisive... and not waste a surfeit of missiles per SD squadron in the mean time. As to Giscard, since they were mousetrapping elsewhere, they'd be badly positioned to intervene.

The problem is... They had insufficient information on the effectiveness of Apollo to make that decision to launch less per SD. So it would have been an equally dangerous throw of the dice as Beatrice Bravo only with no force advantage that any reasonable strategist could plan and exploit.

Crucial information which I argued that Henke failed to collect in the Battle of Spindle when she took her gloves off! Not sure about the timeline, but these details are needed. Of course, that was against the SL, but the reasoning still stands as to why she erred.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by SharkHunter   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:54 am

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--snipping--
SharkHunter wrote:The problem is... They had insufficient information on the effectiveness of Apollo to make that decision to launch less per SD. So it would have been an equally dangerous throw of the dice as Beatrice Bravo only with no force advantage that any reasonable strategist could plan and exploit.


cthia wrote: Crucial information which I argued that Henke failed to collect in the Battle of Spindle when she took her gloves off! Not sure about the timeline, but these details are needed. Of course, that was against the SL, but the reasoning still stands as to why she erred.


OP's question is at a different point in the timeline... Henke at the time point where this question is being asked is a prisoner of the RN, as she was captured at Solon, and has not yet been paroled. New Tuscany hasn't even happened yet. Without Apollo the RMN is facing a certain loss in 1-2 T-Years because of he RN's built superiority and RMN losses due to Thunderbolt.
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:59 am

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SharkHunter wrote:
cthia wrote: Crucial information which I argued that Henke failed to collect in the Battle of Spindle when she took her gloves off! Not sure about the timeline, but these details are needed. Of course, that was against the SL, but the reasoning still stands as to why she erred.


OP's question is at a different point in the timeline... Henke at the time point where this question is being asked is a prisoner of the RN, as she was captured at Solon, and has not yet been paroled. New Tuscany hasn't even happened yet. Without Apollo the RMN is facing a certain loss in 1-2 T-Years because of he RN's built superiority and RMN losses due to Thunderbolt.

Plus even if the info from Spindle was teleported back in time to the time of the Lovat raid all it could tell the RMN is how few Apollo missiles (in their less capable non-FTL control mode) were needed to crush obsolete SLN junk.

That would tell you almost nothing about how effective RHN SD(P)s sporting the latest defensive tricks Foraker and her team have come up with.


While not on par with what the RMN could do with Keyhole, the RHN's SD(P)S were probably easily 15-30 times more survivable that the Scientists and Vegas that Henke later curb stomped at Spindle.
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by cthia   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:33 am

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I don't think I made myself clear. I never said testing the efficacy of an RMN launch against the SL would have helped in any way, form or fashion against the RHN. Even if the timeline was cooperative.

But why anyone who came up against the RHN first should have collected that information, and why it could have been wasteful or fatal had they erred just like Henke.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by Theemile   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:15 pm

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cthia wrote:I don't think I made myself clear. I never said testing the efficacy of an RMN launch against the SL would have helped in any way, form or fashion against the RHN. Even if the timeline was cooperative.

But why anyone who came up against the RHN first should have collected that information, and why it could have been wasteful or fatal had they erred just like Henke.


But Henke did collect that info and pass it along after Spindle, why would you think she didn't?
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by cthia   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:16 pm

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Theemile wrote:
cthia wrote:I don't think I made myself clear. I never said testing the efficacy of an RMN launch against the SL would have helped in any way, form or fashion against the RHN. Even if the timeline was cooperative.

But why anyone who came up against the RHN first should have collected that information, and why it could have been wasteful or fatal had they erred just like Henke.


But Henke did collect that info and pass it along after Spindle, why would you think she didn't?

Because I'm still a little less forgiving than the masses for all the missiles she fired, after specifically saying she wanted to test their defenses.

But I don't want to derail this thread, because it is an answer I'd like to know myself. I'm just not sure Honor, or Honor alone, would have been chosen for the job. Rather than Whitehaven. Or the two of them in tandem.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:02 pm

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cthia wrote:Because I'm still a little less forgiving than the masses for all the missiles she fired, after specifically saying she wanted to test their defenses.

But I don't want to derail this thread, because it is an answer I'd like to know myself. I'm just not sure Honor, or Honor alone, would have been chosen for the job. Rather than Whitehaven. Or the two of them in tandem.


The Battle of Spindle was the first war-time engagement the SLN SDs had had in centuries. Up until that point, there had only been skirmishes with non-capital vessels mostly operated by non Solly personnel, like BCs at Monica and CAs at Tiberian. The only engagement with SLN officers at the helm was Second New Tuscany and the commanding officer on the RMN side was a certain Michele Henke.

Even if all the intelligence the RMN had was indicating the SLN tech superiority had lapsed, if I were the planners at the RMN, I would be doubting that intel and wanting to check it for myself.

Which is what Henke did.

And don't forget this was the first use of the ACM without a Keyhole II to control it. Honor's engagements back in the Haven Sector were all controlled by Keyhole II aboard her Invictus.

You may be transporting back in time some of your knowledge of future battles. You have to think about what you felt about this engagement when you first read it. For me, it was not so long ago (only 2 years), so I can tell you how the engagements with the SLN felt to me as a reader:

At the Battle of Tiberian, I was really worried for HMS Gauntlet, a Saganami-B, against matching top of the line SLN cruisers. This was the very first time we saw SLN ships in action and up until that point, there was absolutely nothing in the books to suggest their tech had lapsed.

The Battle of Monica was a nail-biter. Even though clearly the Monicans had no military orthodoxy to rely upon, it was one Saganami-C and smaller ships against battlecruisers.

The Second Battle of New Tuscany didn't get to be a nail-biter because it was entirely done from outside the SLN range. The SLN stood no chance. And Henke had the option to disengage, since she was closer to the hyperlimit and had the acceleration advantage.

But the Battle of Spindle was another suspense. First because it wasn't clear that Crandall was coming for Spindle in the first place or if she was headed for the Lynx terminus to seize it. She stood a good chance of succeeding (temporarily) if she had tried the latter. But unlike New Tuscany, Henke did not have the option to disengage. She had to win against 70 SDs with nothing bigger than her Nike-class BC squadron. She planned it perfectly, taunting Crandall so she would cross the hyperlimit and then strike after Crandall no longer had the option to disengage. If memory serves me, at Lovat, Honor and Yanakov used 1000 missiles to kill each SD(P) (including the ACM as well as Dazzlers and Dragon's Teeth), while Henke threw about 500 at each SLN SD.

Finally, remember this was pre-Oyster Bay. Henke was not in need of conserving ammunition, so she might as well overkill. It also sent a message to the SLN that "we have enough of those that we can afford to use 12000 of them to make a point" (namely, "exclamation point"). If the Mandarins and the SLN weren't so thick-headed, they would have got the message.
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by cthia   » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:17 pm

cthia
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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Because I'm still a little less forgiving than the masses for all the missiles she fired, after specifically saying she wanted to test their defenses.

But I don't want to derail this thread, because it is an answer I'd like to know myself. I'm just not sure Honor, or Honor alone, would have been chosen for the job. Rather than Whitehaven. Or the two of them in tandem.


The Battle of Spindle was the first war-time engagement the SLN SDs had had in centuries. Up until that point, there had only been skirmishes with non-capital vessels mostly operated by non Solly personnel, like BCs at Monica and CAs at Tiberian. The only engagement with SLN officers at the helm was Second New Tuscany and the commanding officer on the RMN side was a certain Michele Henke.

Even if all the intelligence the RMN had was indicating the SLN tech superiority had lapsed, if I were the planners at the RMN, I would be doubting that intel and wanting to check it for myself.

Which is what Henke did.

And don't forget this was the first use of the ACM without a Keyhole II to control it. Honor's engagements back in the Haven Sector were all controlled by Keyhole II aboard her Invictus.

You may be transporting back in time some of your knowledge of future battles. You have to think about what you felt about this engagement when you first read it. For me, it was not so long ago (only 2 years), so I can tell you how the engagements with the SLN felt to me as a reader:

At the Battle of Tiberian, I was really worried for HMS Gauntlet, a Saganami-B, against matching top of the line SLN cruisers. This was the very first time we saw SLN ships in action and up until that point, there was absolutely nothing in the books to suggest their tech had lapsed.

The Battle of Monica was a nail-biter. Even though clearly the Monicans had no military orthodoxy to rely upon, it was one Saganami-C and smaller ships against battlecruisers.

The Second Battle of New Tuscany didn't get to be a nail-biter because it was entirely done from outside the SLN range. The SLN stood no chance. And Henke had the option to disengage, since she was closer to the hyperlimit and had the acceleration advantage.

But the Battle of Spindle was another suspense. First because it wasn't clear that Crandall was coming for Spindle in the first place or if she was headed for the Lynx terminus to seize it. She stood a good chance of succeeding (temporarily) if she had tried the latter. But unlike New Tuscany, Henke did not have the option to disengage. She had to win against 70 SDs with nothing bigger than her Nike-class BC squadron. She planned it perfectly, taunting Crandall so she would cross the hyperlimit and then strike after Crandall no longer had the option to disengage. If memory serves me, at Lovat, Honor and Yanakov used 1000 missiles to kill each SD(P) (including the ACM as well as Dazzlers and Dragon's Teeth), while Henke threw about 500 at each SLN SD.

Finally, remember this was pre-Oyster Bay. Henke was not in need of conserving ammunition, so she might as well overkill. It also sent a message to the SLN that "we have enough of those that we can afford to use 12000 of them to make a point" (namely, "exclamation point"). If the Mandarins and the SLN weren't so thick-headed, they would have got the message.

Been meaning to get back to you on this.

First, it is a very nice post and I enjoy reading it immensely. I enjoy hearing about another reader's mindset when digesting books. It accomplished several things as far as I am concerned.

First in that regard is the fact that I can scarcely understand how people can read books with a spreadsheet at hand. To me it simply deadens the read and I have always championed that. But it is surprising to read of your anxiety about Henke in the Battle of Spindle. Not for a single moment was I worried about her. But I realize that that may have been due to my ignorance of the tech. Which makes me wonder if the use of a slide-rule thru the years may have intensified my enjoyment of Sci-Fi. (Gosh no!) :D

Secondly, the same lack undoubtedly has something to do with me thinking 12,000 missiles was overkill. After all, someone did point out that several of the SL ships survived as beaten and battered hulls. Probably the number itself, by itself, seems large, when in that threat environment probably isn't.

BTW, I read the series in order, fortunate for me. So I wasn't projecting future knowledge where it shouldn't have been.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:36 pm

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cthia wrote:First in that regard is the fact that I can scarcely understand how people can read books with a spreadsheet at hand. To me it simply deadens the read and I have always championed that. But it is surprising to read of your anxiety about Henke in the Battle of Spindle. Not for a single moment was I worried about her. But I realize that that may have been due to my ignorance of the tech. Which makes me wonder if the use of a slide-rule thru the years may have intensified my enjoyment of Sci-Fi. (Gosh no!) :D


The spreadsheet came only after joining the Forum and with all the discussions here. David is amazingly consistent and we know he does write using spreadsheets, so you can bet that he got the math right (ok, sometimes there are exceptions).

But I can't help if I make calculations while I read. I can't help counting... I counted the number of loops in an extension cord I rolled up today as I was rolling it. Though usually this is about egregious errors, like getting things orders of magnitude off (which happens when they get their units wrong). Another author I like and who otherwise writes really well keeps using "megameters" (1 million meters) where I think she meant "gigameters" (1 million km).

In the particular of the Battle of Spindle, the number 12000 was so large and so unexpected that I had to stop and think. If you divide that by the number of ships targeted (23), it's not so many.

Secondly, the same lack undoubtedly has something to do with me thinking 12,000 missiles was overkill. After all, someone did point out that several of the SL ships survived as beaten and battered hulls. Probably the number itself, by itself, seems large, when in that threat environment probably isn't.

BTW, I read the series in order, fortunate for me. So I wasn't projecting future knowledge where it shouldn't have been.


Right. It came out so unexpectedly in the text and is so large by itself for a single salvo that it stands out. It probably had the same effect on you as it was intended to have on Crandall: "that's preposterously large."

Indeed, we had heard from the analyst that served with Byng that the SLN had been getting some intel on the battles and had been dismissing the number of missiles fired as complete fabrication, exactly because they were too large. From the SL and SLN's point of view, it would be something like learning Tonga and Kiribati air forces fought a battle in the Pacific using 1000 fighter jets each.

As for projecting, I meant projecting now, not when you were reading, but it seems I stand corrected anyway.
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Re: Could 8th Fleet Have Attacked the Haven System?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:19 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:The spreadsheet came only after joining the Forum and with all the discussions here. David is amazingly consistent and we know he does write using spreadsheets, so you can bet that he got the math right (ok, sometimes there are exceptions).
Same. After you've read the series a bunch of times and start arguing over minutia it's time to start digging deeper and crunching some numbers :D
ThinksMarkedly wrote:But I can't help if I make calculations while I read. I can't help counting... I counted the number of loops in an extension cord I rolled up today as I was rolling it. Though usually this is about egregious errors, like getting things orders of magnitude off (which happens when they get their units wrong). Another author I like and who otherwise writes really well keeps using "megameters" (1 million meters) where I think she meant "gigameters" (1 million km).
Speaking of wrong units; there are a couple spots where RFC got himself out by two orders of magnitude on a missile's acceleration by using KPS^2 when it should have been gees. :D



Oddly despite one flipping between gees and KPS^2 only 9 words apart I don't remember bumping on it while reading AoV. (The other was in SftS). I found them much, much, later when cataloging all the missile performance numbers I could find in support of something I was posting about here several years ago. When recording them into a spreadsheet and converting so they're all presented uniformly the wrong units finally jumped out.

Still, despite the occasional mistake he's really good about keeping things consistent compared to many authors I've read. (And that's why it can be fun to dig into those background details that managed to avoid getting covered in one of his tech infodumps)
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