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The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry

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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by Daryl   » Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:45 am

Daryl
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Glad to see you back here T2M. It has been quiet and a bit boring.
Electricity generation is a complex issue. On a micro scale my domestic roof top panels have supplied me with more than enough power for 13 years now. During the day I export my surplus to the Web, and at night I import what I need, but am ahead on the balance. Thus no power bills during that time.
Our city is perched on a range so is looking at utilising our water supply dams for large floating solar farms, and using pumped hydro for storage. The general area has numerous solar, wind, gas and a modern HELE coal station. We have much more power than we need, so export it to the national grid.
The next few years could be interesting in that new technology is coming. Toyota are experimenting with solid state lithium batteries, that give range and refuelling time similar to petrol vehicles. As Europe is discovering a continent wide net will ensure that there is always some power being produced somewhere. Because of the US phobia about government control and production it may not achieve that.
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Sun Dec 27, 2020 5:30 pm

thinkstoomuch
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Daryl wrote:Glad to see you back here T2M. It has been quiet and a bit boring.
Electricity generation is a complex issue. On a micro scale my domestic roof top panels have supplied me with more than enough power for 13 years now. During the day I export my surplus to the Web, and at night I import what I need, but am ahead on the balance. Thus no power bills during that time.
Our city is perched on a range so is looking at utilising our water supply dams for large floating solar farms, and using pumped hydro for storage. The general area has numerous solar, wind, gas and a modern HELE coal station. We have much more power than we need, so export it to the national grid.
The next few years could be interesting in that new technology is coming. Toyota are experimenting with solid state lithium batteries, that give range and refuelling time similar to petrol vehicles. As Europe is discovering a continent wide net will ensure that there is always some power being produced somewhere. Because of the US phobia about government control and production it may not achieve that.


Thank you for the greeting just bored, will not be around for long most likely. Hope you had a Merry Christmas!

No, you have a solar assist system. Not having to buy batteries, as Joat42 pointed out, you keep the local power company as a free battery. My brother living off the grid has almost 100% solar for 30 years. He still has to run a generator in winter. Just not as much since he overbuilt the solar to 2 times his needs.

The US with few exceptions makes the interconnection of Europe a joke(well except, maybe, Germany running power north and south through Poland, due to German NIMBY). California itself has ~15 GW of connections(through areas with very few people , no NIMBY or overrun by that government). Just looked right now the wholesale price of electricity in CA ISO is ~25$ US and down to importing 6 GW. Same reason there used to be(still are but less) huge coal plants on the plains. Provided power to the population centers hundreds of miles away.

By the way California and the UK have the around the same sized grids. Ever looked up how much connection the United Kingdom has? I do not think they even get 6 GW.

So how much does it cost to run a 1 GW wire from Albany, WA to Sidney. How much power is lost along the way. Literally LA is connected to NYC in the US. Just not worth sending the power. So California has rolling blackouts and my clocks did not even need to be reset while I was gone this summer. But I went through 2 power outages while I was visiting NY State for a month. All that government in CA and NYS should have been keeping them "evil" corporations to the grind stone like that minimal government in FL was.

Why do you think Iowa(11 GW of installed wind power) produces so much wind energy by percentage? ... They sell it to Chicago(800 kms away)and others when it is available. Sort of like Denmark but on a bigger scale.

Lot more to say but enough for now,
T2M

PS. For fun and because I love solar. I keep looking at going solar. Every time I look at batteries making the whole system 5 times more expensive(just figuring on 3 days worth of back up for my relatively minuscule electric usage at a latitude of 26 degrees). Otherwise all I am doing is keeping the CCGT and wire FPL installed in business. Like you are. Somehow my kWH price is still the same here as 13 years ago. Only looked at 6 years worth of bills(in Excel), rest is based on US EIA information. Can you say the same? While reducing CO2 output per capita and per MWH?

PPS ERCOT(~80% of Texas) is one of those exceptions. They deliberately isolated themselves(mostly). One of the places that the price of electricity is less than the US average. It was cheaper until they became the leading source of wind and solar energy in the US!
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Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by Daryl   » Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:51 pm

Daryl
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We have a power cord running hundreds of kilometres across Bass Strait to Tasmania from the mainland, and are planning a second one. Tasmania has more than 100% renewables, mainly hydro.
Quite a few foundrys and smelters built recently have solar farms adjacent to them.
For us, domestic batteries are right on financially marginal right now, so will improve, and I will probably get one in a few years.
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by Joat42   » Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:51 pm

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thinkstoomuch wrote:
Joat42 wrote:...snip...


Congratulations you have now designed the CA ISO system. Which you have said is poorly designed, I agree.

I didn't, but if you want to be a bit dishonest in your argument, go ahead.

thinkstoomuch wrote:Unfortunately once solar gets to ~13% you now are making power companies buy stuff to dump it on the ground. It is now cheaper pay other sources and the solar. To keep things stable.

Uhm, so why not use a battery for excess grid capacity, you know, the thing it's very good at, handling fluctuations? Which is something traditional systems can't handle.

thinkstoomuch wrote:Using fossil fuels and everything else for a "pseudo battery". In an area that covers 8 states, sort of. They have something like 15 GW of interconnections mostly to import except when the sun is shining and the solar is sold to a grid that is paying other folks. Negative prices another wonderful feature. They have a web site that shows it I learned Python just to get the data at 5 minute intervals they have since changed site and I can no longer get more than short snapshots.

Every grid can have negative prices, for the simple reason it's impossible to regulate the production at a moments notice - unless you have batteries which can mitigate most of it.

thinkstoomuch wrote:I like proven ways to decarbonize the grid if that is the goal(which really is not my goal, lots of other reasons to do it). Nuclear where France has achieved 75%+ using nuclear. Or for that matter Illinois where 50%+ of the grid is nuclear. There are many other examples. Much cheaper for the consumer than using solar to do it. Plus build the plant and it lasts a human lifetime(maybe more) if the company maintains it properly. Which Florida Pirate and Loot does.

For wind I am not sure of the break point. Last I looked probably around 20% if Texas is the gauge. They are currently running into a curtailment issues despite the 8 billion they spent on power lines. It used to be around 10% before that investment. I think. Much harder for me to deal with their data publishing methods. CA ISO makes it much easier for me.

I love solar just is not economic. Wind not so much Even my favorite Solana produces electrical energy wholesale at less than my current retail rate even factoring in my connection to the grid charge and taxes. But it is neat watching solar power on the grid after midnight. Without a NG connection.

Funny how rotating inertia used to a wonderful job balancing the grid until wind and solar showed up. Though it is dependent on how far power plant you are. Which is why when Florida Power and Light decommissions a power plant they keep the rotating part attached to the grid with a motor, it is called a condenser. Instantaneous response.

I'm sorry to burst your bubble, it's not instant, because if it was you would burn out the coils. Loads are phased in so you don't burn out your equipment.

thinkstoomuch wrote:So now that we have established that the original post is bull pucky and batteries are not the answer, I guess I am done.

No, YOU have established it without actually addressing it. The point is that unless something changes the prediction holds. And batteries works just fine, but apparently not in the USA that is fast becoming the country of "we can't" instead of "we can".

---
Jack of all trades and destructive tinkerer.


Anyone who have simple solutions for complex problems is a fool.
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:44 am

thinkstoomuch
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Daryl wrote:We have a power cord running hundreds of kilometres across Bass Strait to Tasmania from the mainland, and are planning a second one. Tasmania has more than 100% renewables, mainly hydro.
Quite a few foundrys and smelters built recently have solar farms adjacent to them.
For us, domestic batteries are right on financially marginal right now, so will improve, and I will probably get one in a few years.



And we are back why this a waste. One wire using hydro mostly which lead to major problems. People were using it to chase government carbon dollars. Though it does do away with NIMBY. Shrimp get no rights. :lol:

Of course batteries work so well that Snowy hydro boonoogle is is justified.

T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:30 am

thinkstoomuch
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Joat42 wrote:
thinkstoomuch wrote:
Congratulations you have now designed the CA ISO system. Which you have said is poorly designed, I agree.

I didn't, but if you want to be a bit dishonest in your argument, go ahead.



Your reasoning is what the California government used to justify implementing your recommendations, as I understand them. Perhaps you should read a little about it. Things like specifying power storage requirements not energy storage. "Renewable Power" has "right of way" must be purchased if available. ...

When frequency going down, synchronized rotating components slow converting rotational energy into power. Frequency going up, synchronized rotating components speed up storing power as rotational energy(however small the change). Basic physics and electricity. Happens at the same time, I think that defines instantly. More or less flywheel storage. CCTG has three synchronized rotating components typically. For that matter how a piston engine functions, sort of. Bang store energy in crankshaft and flywheel, wait a bit repeat.

We had, without batteries, before 2000 a mostly stable grid (or CA currently, when it is not having brownouts, which your batteries will not help,medium term storage required, short term hundreds of MW in a tens of GW grid are not a drop in the bucket, except locally). Which you seem to gloss over(were there failures in the grid, yes). It was such a big a deal a few years ago wind towers were working on synthetic inertia(recent wind power is not synchronized, less power generated, for various reasons). They may still looking for syn. inertia. I haven't looked into it recently.

El Hierro provides stability to a small grid using Hydro Turbines, not batteries. Not the reason turbines were installed. Turbines have mostly failed at stated main reason to install them.

Me, I am not sure about any of the answers. I keep looking at the data that is available out of places like King Island, El Hierro, Rottnest Island, US EIA, German Grid, ... There are a lot of sites and data I look at. For example.

The link for King Island:
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/h ... ing-island

Watch it for a bit. I actually have data files around here somewhere for years of data(millions of lines of data, iirc). Again figured out how to store the updates then they upgraded the site to make it impossible for my skills or a German guy I shared data with to do. Have his old link to the raw data on the web as well if you want.

Well if the wind and solar are actually producing power(currently they are a drain). Of course they also used a purpose built system including ...
Quoted case study to bold currently significant part ...

"While the renewable energy sources being used werewell-established, the enabling and storage technologies are highly innovative. The hybrid system includes a 3 MW/1.5 MWh battery, two 1 MVA flywheels that significantly aid system security and stability, a 1.5 MW dynamic resistor to manage surplus renewable generation, and an aggregated customer demand response system to provide additional reserve"

Is not the that battery more or less what you are advocating? Not simple.

They tried it had to add the flywheels and other stuff afterwards. It has been fun watching everything they have done in a timeline. Originally they thought all they needed was batteries and wind. Now it all reduced to the ad copy that the above typifies. Oh they have since wrote off the demand response. It is always zero since 2016 or so I think.

Or actually watching how much my motorcycle portable, campsite, solar power varies by the second(on a clear day in the desert). All my cheap, portable power meter will show. Or my brothers solar systems(he started adding solar in the 90's, he already had medium term batteries). I did say I love Solar didn't I. I spent a bunch of money trying to find the best way to do it. Still experimenting. Liking the portability of LiFePO battery 1/4 kWH(about one days usage for the phone and computer) in 7 pounds. Plus when I move I charge it from the motorcycle. Or when the solar is not making it supply run is worth about 1/2 charge.

I didn't say batteries are not being installed in the US. For that matter FPL is installing one about 100 miles away I think(something like equal to all installed in CA currently). Need something to balance all the trash signals being inserted into the grid.

Hope all had a Merry Christmas,
T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by Daryl   » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:40 am

Daryl
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Location: Queensland Australia

Interesting blast from the past, haven't read anything about rotational energy storage in years. Had assumed that it was dropped as uneconomic.
Another project that is starting in our area is a huge solar and wind farm in the Northern Territory desert to supply power to Singapore by an under water cable. They are the most hard headed and pragmatic people imaginable, so if they believe it is worth doing on its own merits it is.
We are also looking at using solar/wind power to produce hydrogen for use in fuel cell cars, or for conversion to ammonia for bulk transport.
I regard pumped hydro to be a viable storage system. Sure it loses about 20% from friction, but when that energy starts out essentially free from not having to provide fuel, that is not important.
For me, the easy simple life of dig an oil well, refine it, put it in your car is over. In future we will have a range of technologies all competing, with some failing while others succeed.
On automotive matters, an amusing (to me) story here is how a petrol head magazine arranged a drag duel between two of our performance icons. A Group A Super 5 litre V8 race car (similar to NASCAR), and a worked 7 litre muscle road car. At the last moment they wheeled a stock Tesla S out to join them. Guess who won convincingly?
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by cthia   » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:32 am

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This is the funniest serious thread I've ever read.

Caveat: It isn't so much the powers that be were wrong about the perceived amount of global oil left on the planet. Those early projections were based on the then current consumption of all of the known sources of oil. The then current consumption was based on the big 8 cylinder gas guzzling Cadillacs. The dinosaurs died to give us oil. The Cadillacs died to preserve it. LOL

Besides, projections are also meant to wake people up with a gut check. People understand fear and hunger more than anything else. We cannot continue to survive as a wasteful and completely oblivious species.

Seriously though, we all consciously know there is a limited supply of oil on the planet. Whenever it runs out, what will it do as far as levelling the battlefield among militaries?

The US military is the largest institutional consumer of oil in the world. Every year, our armed forces consume more than 100 million barrels of oil to power ships, vehicles, aircraft, and ground operations—enough for over 4 million trips around the Earth, assuming 25 mpg.


Will the battlefield be levelled when all of the oil is exhausted?

Infrastructures are highly dependent on oil.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: The World Has 42 +/- years left then the well runs dry
Post by thinkstoomuch   » Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:40 am

thinkstoomuch
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Daryl wrote:Interesting blast from the past, haven't read anything about rotational energy storage in years. Had assumed that it was dropped as uneconomic.
Another project that is starting in our area is a huge solar and wind farm in the Northern Territory desert to supply power to Singapore by an under water cable. They are the most hard headed and pragmatic people imaginable, so if they believe it is worth doing on its own merits it is.
We are also looking at using solar/wind power to produce hydrogen for use in fuel cell cars, or for conversion to ammonia for bulk transport.
I regard pumped hydro to be a viable storage system. Sure it loses about 20% from friction, but when that energy starts out essentially free from not having to provide fuel, that is not important.
For me, the easy simple life of dig an oil well, refine it, put it in your car is over. In future we will have a range of technologies all competing, with some failing while others succeed.
On automotive matters, an amusing (to me) story here is how a petrol head magazine arranged a drag duel between two of our performance icons. A Group A Super 5 litre V8 race car (similar to NASCAR), and a worked 7 litre muscle road car. At the last moment they wheeled a stock Tesla S out to join them. Guess who won convincingly?


Not a blast from the past at all. State of current tech.

For example:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... ered-grids

An article from yesterday. Talks about the difficulties of low inertia grids. Mentions condensers. Which is where all this started. Why destroy turbines and generators when a little investment makes the already spent money good for decades. My utility did this. One reason my electric bill does not change. Despite adding GWs of solar. They supposedly have a plan to have 10+ GW by 2030. Looked at it in the 10 year plan public document required by the "evil" government regulators. :-)

Drag race is a non sequitur for cars that are designed for something else(I saw where a fool, imo, turned a minivan into a dragster, ;-) ). NASCAR Cup level Typically requires at least two pit stops just for fuel(and tires 500 miles race is more). I had fun for a while when Marcus Ambrose raced in cup.

Tesla has a huge amount of torque. I never said anything else. Now getting from Missoula, MT to Rochester, NY for a funeral on a tight time schedule ... not happening(or for that matter getting from Seattle to Spokane). Gas powered motorcycle not a problem. I didn't even have to bump my speed up much. Or, shudder, get on an interstate highway.

T2M
-----------------------
Q: “How can something be worth more than it costs? Isn’t everything ‘worth’ what it costs?”
A: “No. That’s just the price. ...
Christopher Anvil from Top Line in "War Games"
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