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The US just assassinated...

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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:59 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:I don't want to fight the quote structure, so I will just respond in sequence.

Killing General Sulinami is somewhat similar to killing Bin Laden. Both assasinations were morally correct. However; both assassination provoked consequences. One should consider consequences and evaluate them in context of the future threat.


Oh ffs.

That's like saying "dropping this rock in the ocean is somewhat similar to dropping that asteroid in the ocean. They're both solid objects and they're both landing in water and making a splash."

Ummmm... ok. Technically correct while masking the most critical difference. SCALE.

Assassinating a globally wanted criminal terrorist with no official state ties is a UNIVERSE different than assassinating a top Iranian government official, and so are the consequences. Yes it angered the Pakistanis but there was effectively ZERO chance it was going to provoke a shooting war with Pakistan since officially they were in support of the find and kill Bin Laden plan.

Fortunately it appears someone managed to sit on Trump last night and get him to not re-escalate things further this morning, hopefully bringing about what was probably the best case outcome of this entire situation Trump deliberately provoked. The Iranians openly bombarding US military positions and threatening the US with far more severe and widespread consequences if they responded... and the US backing down and letting them walk away.

Which is going to be a propaganda bonanza for Iran all over the region... and again, that was the BEST CASE outcome of what Mr. Very Stable Genius caused to happen. Assuming Trump doesn't do a 180, enter full tantrum mode, and still do something to make it even worse next.


The consequence of the assination was the election of a far more militant islamicist government that seems intent on provoking a nuclear war with India.


Oh please, the Pakistani elections were hardly a one issue event.

However; it was possible to kill Bin Laden without provoking those consequences. If President Obama was convinced that Pakistan's President would not act if the HE PERSONALLY revealed Bin Laden's whereabouts to him, a B-1 dropping a MOAB would have whereabouts far more discrete.


And potentially have never given positive confirmation Bin Laden was in fact on site and killed. Or that they didn't just oopsie bomb a bunch of civilians into charcoal.

You know, minor little considerations like that.

In the case of General Sulinami, he was an active, continuing threat. He was provoking a low intensity civil war within Iraq to increase Iranian influence with the obvious goal of domination. The vote by the Iraqi parliament when only Shia were attending without Sunni or Kurds dramatizes Iranian influence. Do you really think that the Suni and Kurds were outraged by his assination?

Killing Sulinami obviously pissed off the Iranians. They were already pissed off. Everyone on this board wants to blame Trump for the Iranians breaching the treaty.


Ahem. The Iranians DIDN'T breach the treaty. Trump did. You have been told this repeatedly. So yes, he gets the blame for the thing he did.

The capabilities that they are now revealing indicate that they were building the infrastructure to mass produce advanced centrifuges BEFORE Trump withdrew from the Treaty.


Which was permitted under the treaty. Again, as has already been explained to you. What the treaty put a lockdown on was enrichment beyond certain limits, which they were abiding by until Trump blew everything up with his typical diplomacy-by-tantrum-and-chest-thumping approach.

Iran was going to go nuclear just like Pakistan and North Korea.


Possibly at some date in the far future if negotiations over the next over 10 years of the deal failed to reach an understanding that extended the nuclear framework.

Trump decided, "hey, let's just skip those ten plus years the deal bought everyone, scrap all diplomacy, and provoke them into abandoning all nuclear restraints today!"

Yeah, that made things better.

Trump MIGHT be able to stop Iran from getting nukes, but probably can not. A nuclear armed Iran is far more problematic if Iran controls Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.


Too bad Trump has been actively handing them influence in all of the above areas his entire presidency. Which you were cheerleading up until this as I recall. So, so happy that you thought Trump was getting the US out of there. You had an entire thread devoted to how happy you were about it that is still sitting here on the front page of this forum.
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by Dilandu   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:12 pm

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One thing you should admit, gcomeau. Whatever flaws Trump may have, he still did not allow USA to be dragged into any new war.
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Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:27 pm

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Dilandu wrote:One thing you should admit, gcomeau. Whatever flaws Trump may have, he still did not allow USA to be dragged into any new war.


Yet. This is hardly resolved on any firm lasting secure footing.

And what he DID do is massively undercut US influence in the entire region and hand it to hostile actors in a way that is going to be almost impossible to recover for decades. (Which I know you for one are not at all broken up about, we are all aware how happy Putin is with Trump's performance to date)




PS: Anyone notice Trump all of a sudden appears to think NATO is a good thing again when the realization of what a deep pit of shit he has landed himself in seems to have possibly finally breached his skull? Don't bet on them being super enthusiastic to come to his rescue here. They're going to want to head off any further escalations and hopefully put things back on a path to diplomatic re-engagement with Iran but that's an "in spite of Trump" activity not a "helping Trump out" activity. They all know who deliberately blew everything up and landed us here in the first place.
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:17 pm

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Dilandu wrote:One thing you should admit, gcomeau. Whatever flaws Trump may have, he still did not allow USA to be dragged into any new war.


If we don't get into a new war, it will not be because Trump "didnt allow" it. It will be in spite of it. Iran was smart enough to arrange their reprisal in such a way that both allows them to tell their own people that they got their revenge for Soloimani's death and to allow Trump to declare victory and go home.

That's presuming that Iran meant it when they said no further reprisals. In spite of his flare for bombastic rhetoric, Trump doesn't really seem to be a warmonger. I think that he means it when he says he would like to extract us from our conflicts in the region. I hope so anyway. My only qualification here would be I hope it doesn't lead to the rebuilding of Isis.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by Annachie   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:23 pm

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Dilandu wrote:One thing you should admit, gcomeau. Whatever flaws Trump may have, he still did not allow USA to be dragged into any new war.


I wonder if that has more to do with Boris Johnson saying that the UK wouldn't follow the US into a shooting conflict in Iran than not.
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:49 pm

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For some idea of how solid the Trump administration's justification for the Solemeini assassination looks to be...

This was Republican Senator Mike Lee right after the assassination. Not exactly a tough audience:

https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1 ... 96481?s=20


This was Mike Lee today, after receiving the "briefing" from the Trump team on why the assassination occurred:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 63521?s=20


He's considerably less happy. I wonder why.......
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by Imaginos1892   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:27 pm

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Michael Everett wrote:Aaaaaand apparently Iran is showing how annoyed it is by attacking the US Army in Iraq.
Using a missile bombardment, no less.
According the the last news update, two bases holding American forces have been hit by at least a dozen missiles (total, not each...)

Whelp, this is gonna escalate...

Where is there left for it to escalate to? Iran declared war on the U.S. in 1979, and remains at war with us today. They never un-declared war; we've just been ignoring it.

Solemeini was the terrorist that instigated the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Having an official position in Iran does not change that fact. Blowing up terrorist leaders is a long-established policy, going back at least 15 years.

Aaaaand now they claim they killed 80 U.S. soldiers, and wounded 200 more.

The truth: they didn't kill anybody, or damage anything significant. Are they that incompetent, or were they just putting on a show?

Strange, though, how they've got NOTHING to say about the 176 people killed when they shot down a Ukrainian airliner. Probably by mistake. How long are they going to deny that? As long as the Russians denied shooting down Malaysia Flight 17?
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:15 pm

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Imaginos1892 wrote:
Michael Everett wrote:Aaaaaand apparently Iran is showing how annoyed it is by attacking the US Army in Iraq.
Using a missile bombardment, no less.
According the the last news update, two bases holding American forces have been hit by at least a dozen missiles (total, not each...)

Whelp, this is gonna escalate...

Where is there left for it to escalate to? Iran declared war on the U.S. in 1979, and remains at war with us today. They never un-declared war; we've just been ignoring it.

Solemeini was the terrorist that instigated the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Having an official position in Iran does not change that fact. Blowing up terrorist leaders is a long-established policy, going back at least 15 years.

Aaaaand now they claim they killed 80 U.S. soldiers, and wounded 200 more.

The truth: they didn't kill anybody, or damage anything significant. Are they that incompetent, or were they just putting on a show?

Strange, though, how they've got NOTHING to say about the 176 people killed when they shot down a Ukrainian airliner. Probably by mistake. How long are they going to deny that? As long as the Russians denied shooting down Malaysia Flight 17?
———————————
Firepower is not a thousand bullets that miss — it's one bullet that hits.


You're claiming they shot down that airliner... which took off *from* Tehran and was half full of Iranians... based on *what* exactly?
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by Annachie   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:07 pm

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Well, it did crash.

At least he got that much correct. :)
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Re: The US just assassinated...
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:01 pm

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Annachie wrote:Well, it did crash.

At least he got that much correct. :)


I mean, there's a plausible argument to be made it could have been an accidental shootdown by some air defense crew on a hair trigger expecting an incoming US retaliatory strike... but there's no way they would have shot it down deliberately.
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