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7thsealord
Posts: 213
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Ayup, China is probably the major factor in this mess. It is / was possibly the only "friend" that NK had, but has clearly gotten ticked off with NK's general insanity. They probably still want some semblace of NK as a "buffer state" against SK and Japan, but the cost for this is getting out of hand.
Noting too that China, until now, was THE nuclear power of the region. They have nukes and ballistic missiles, and everybody else hides under the US umbrella. With NK arming up, we see the US, Japan and SK all building up ABM defenses in response - which also impacts China's status as the region's nuclear power. Also, if NK somehow (don't ask me how) retains its nuclear arsenal, then this could open the door for South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan to acquire their own nuclear arsenals and ballistic missiles in response. It might seem unlikely, but I am sure this idea is bouncing around in a few heads in the Chinese government - the simple fact of Japan upgrading its conventional forces in recent years has really bothered them. Wait and see, I guess. BTW, "May you live in interesting times" is NOT a Chinese curse or quote. *
---------------------------------------------------- “I want my epitaph to be ‘Doggone If He Wasn’t Trying His Best’.” “I want mine to be ‘We Buried What Pieces We Could Find’.” Wondermark |
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Tenshinai
Posts: 2893
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Pretty much.
Japan has waay too much of a domestic anti-nukes opinion for even daring to consider getting their own nuclear weapons. I mean, their ships deliberately does not even have the ability to fire Tomahawk missiles, despite having everything needed for it, because they cut out that part of the software, as those are considered "offensive" weapons. And their defense spending is capped since WWII(1% of GNP or something like that IIRC). SK, will probably keep increasing their defenses against nukes.
It would be "not that hard" at least for China to do an upgrade program for their ballistical forces. They have the ability to put people in space, and they have access to enough of the old Soviet research, meaning they could, with relative ease, upgrade to MIRV and some other stuff that noone can really defend against even now. OTOH, they may avoid doing such a thing because they would prefer to not stand out too much as bad guys. |
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Spacekiwi
Posts: 2634
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The capped percentage of the military is part of their constitution IIRC, to show the world and themselves that they wont ever be able to or be willing to attempt to form a japanese empire again. and even though its a low cap, their GNP is so high, they have a reasonably decent sized defense force. `
![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ its not paranoia if its justified... ![]() ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
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7thsealord
Posts: 213
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Not saying that Japan and SK would arm with nukes, just that the possibility (however remote) would be in the minds of the Chinese government. When it comes to threat analysis, you think about what your opponent is capable of, not whatever you think (or whatever they say) that they will or will not do. Also note that distrust of Japan (thanks to the atrocities of Japan's invasion of China prior to ww2) is very thoroughly ingrained in China. These days, they do lots of business with Japan. But, trust Japan? No.
Noting that China's military is currently in the middle of several very pricey undertakings anyhow - eg. trialling their first carrier, developing nuclear subs that work, upgrading their army and air force to something like the Western model (high-tech volunteer istead of conscript), and so on. Having to do extra upgrades / expansion of their nuclear capability just to maintain the status quo will be yet another expense. A necessary one from their point of view, certainly, but not exactly welcome. *
---------------------------------------------------- “I want my epitaph to be ‘Doggone If He Wasn’t Trying His Best’.” “I want mine to be ‘We Buried What Pieces We Could Find’.” Wondermark |
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Tenshinai
Posts: 2893
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Yup, even including a couple of baby carriers even if they´re only setup to carry helicopters.
"Western model"? Ask the Czech what they think is better, they had a drastic drop in force quality after switching from conscript to volunteer only. To the point where several generals seriously asked to have conscription back. Sweden did the same switch just the other year and despite the force shrink is already experiencing a similar effect. And they still have lots of ex-conscripts to recruit from, in theory. And Sweden used to have among the best quality in the world, using conscripts, with conscripts kicking the rear ends of other nations "pro´s" in joint exercises on an almost regular basis. (with coast rangers (about 50% conscripts) repeatedly playing whack-a-mole with SEAL teams)) And the reason for that is because conscript vs volunteer is an almost irrelevant difference. Before 2001, at one point, a US officer commented that he felt it embarassing, that Sweden had more "manhours" of serious field exercises, than USA had, not just per soldier, but in total... Essentially, a Swedish conscript in the 90s & early 00s, in usually around a year of service, had more training than a US grunt got in his first FIVE years of service(or not seldomly, more training than the grunt EVER got). With even greater difference for specialists. Meanwhile, the quality of the average recruit was vastly better here, because with the initial military reductions in the early 90s, pretty much only those best suited were actually recruited. So while US army in the same timeframe had an average IQ on recruits of around 90-95(sometimes even below 90), Swedish conscripts had an average above 110, with similar (but less easy to quantify in numbers) differences in physique. And the same has been true for nearly all nations that have used highly trained conscripts. Because THAT is the difference. Doesn´t matter how they were recruited, if you start with mentally and physically better people, and then have them go through 8-14 months of intensive training, with at least 3-4 good field exercises, often several more, you´re going to have a much better force than if you start with clearly less able recruits, who then spend some months on much less serious training, with additional low intensity training occasionally over the following years. There´s a world of a difference compared to the bad old Soviet conscript style, which at it´s worst point was barely a couple of months of halfassed training and then just spending the rest of 2 years taking orders, and if really lucky, getting maybe one or two halfdecent field exercises in during that time. |
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7thsealord
Posts: 213
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As I understand it, the Soviet model is what the Chinese military is trying to move AWAY from. And that kind of transition is never cheap.
*
---------------------------------------------------- “I want my epitaph to be ‘Doggone If He Wasn’t Trying His Best’.” “I want mine to be ‘We Buried What Pieces We Could Find’.” Wondermark |
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Tenshinai
Posts: 2893
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Ehm... In that case, how do you define "Soviet model"? Example, when USSR started serial production of the Su-27(and partially also the MiG-29), it was overall more advanced than what NATO had, with only the F-15 being able to match it, but not until later. It pretty much pioneered the use of helmet "look to lock" sights and IR sensors in fighters. As well as having one of the most aerodynamically advanced airframes ever built. The abilities of the MiG-31 have still not been seriously matched by anyone else. (it is for example only in the last few years that others are beginning to get something similar to the -31s automatic computer network(which for example exchanged information and made sure that missiles did not double up on targets unless intentionally and a bunch of other bonuses)) When USSR broke up, there was more than a little shock within NATO to find that the common Soviet air to air missiles were actually better than it´s NATO counterpart, only the latest, mostly nonexistant models were better. And the Soviet ones still had far better thrust maneuverability to all its counterparts. Defining "Soviet model" as lowtech/numbers is a very flawed way to do it, it´s essentially Hollywood history. You might call it the old Chinese model if you want... |
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7thsealord
Posts: 213
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*Sigh*
Soviet model. Conscripts form the bulk of manpower. Pretty much all technical work done by or under the direct control of officers. NCOs exist, but tend to lack technical qualifications. Western model. Fewer conscripts, more volunteers. More NCOs, doing much more of the technical work, and consequently somewhat fewer officers. Undoubtedly a gross over-simplification, but I don't feel like getting into an in-depth discussion on which 'T' I failed to cross or whatever. The basic point I have been trying to make is that China is in the process of upgrading its military across the board. NK's futzing around probably means added expense for China, as they deal with the fallout (ie. the responses of otehr nations in the region). *
---------------------------------------------------- “I want my epitaph to be ‘Doggone If He Wasn’t Trying His Best’.” “I want mine to be ‘We Buried What Pieces We Could Find’.” Wondermark |
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Invictus
Posts: 215
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Reckon you folks may find this interesting reading....
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/ferociou ... n-strategy Short answer, the NK regime is smart, manipulative, and desperate. "When you talk about damage radius, even atomic weapons pale before that of an unfettered idiot in a position of power." Sam Starfall |
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7thsealord
Posts: 213
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Thanks. Some intersting ideas there.. *
---------------------------------------------------- “I want my epitaph to be ‘Doggone If He Wasn’t Trying His Best’.” “I want mine to be ‘We Buried What Pieces We Could Find’.” Wondermark |
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