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Sonja Hemphill

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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:38 pm

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cthia wrote:At any rate, at the time Apollo came to fruition, if Hamish had been reactivated to carry out the attack on Noveau Paris, he would have been simply a running back. After all, we were deep into the Honorverse at that time of the series.


And that was my point: if they had done Hamish the courtesy of finishing the war he hadn't had the chance before, Honor would still have done all the heavy work up until the last minute. There's no reason for him to be reactivated to replace Honor before that, because she was doing a fine job and he was doing a fine job as First Lord.

There was no reason to change the team that was winning.

If you want to introduce some changes that would make them not be winning, sure. But if you change conditions, then maybe Hamish's expertise becomes relevant again. Or simply because there's no one better. Or vengeance, or whatever.

What you said was that it was a courtesy.
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sun Apr 17, 2022 11:00 pm

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cthia wrote:I can't seem to make this clear. It is simply a hypothetical situation that my niece used to cast aspersions on Hamish's abilities by pointing out that he should not have been trusted with Apollo to finish his drive on Noveau Paris even if Apollo had become available.

My niece and I both expected that Hamish may be reactivated and tapped to complete his drive on Noveau Paris during storyline. Why not reactivate him to finish what he started? Wrong!

You mean you didn't expect Beth to order the RMN to finish what it started after Apollo proved to be so decisive?

An attack from the SLN notwithstanding, didn't you think that attacking Noveau Paris is exactly what would have happened if Eloise didn't offer an Alliance before Apollo was fully distributed?

That seems an odd hypothetical. If Apollo had magically come to fruition 7 years early I see no reason why White Haven wouldn't have been trusted with it, as he was entrusted with all the other utterly unstoppable war winning weapons Manticore and Grayson had been able to devise. With the benefit of hindsight having Apollo then wouldn't have made the slightest bit of difference -- but if it had been ready before Buttercup his SD(P)s would have been equipped with it.

He's the one that's trained up 8th fleet for the final blow against Haven, worked out the operational and tactical approach and drilled and practiced them with his subordinate commanders. The RMN would have no reason to hold back technology that might turn out to make the difference (should podlayers and 'normal' MDMs be less effective than expected) -- nor would they randomly pull their leading admiral from his carefully honed fleet. Especially not to hand it over to someone who has never commanded more than half a dozen wallers (and that as a GSN admiral) and is not yet an Admiral in the RMN.


As for recalling Hamish for the second war -- I can't see that either. Maybe it makes for a bit of story symmetry; but it's not how militaries work and he's got a critical job he's already doing. They'd have no in-universe reason to disrupt both the civilian oversight of the Admiralty and the leadership of the fleet just to give an old warhorse one last campaign. (Plus it'd be a terrible precedent to allow civilian Lords of the Admiralty to return to the military after their service directing and controlling it)



As for Beth ordering the RMN to finish the war -- yes I fully expect that once sufficient force is available to do so.

At the time of Lovat there were no more than 18 Apollo equipped ships in commission [6 in BatRon 61, 12 more in the mousetrap force]. And it's by no means clear whether there had been time or ability yet to refit all of 8th fleets SD(P)s with Apollo. (The fact that 1/3rd of McKeon's squadron, as late as the Battle of Manticore, still lacked Apollo is an argument that Lovat may well have been only a partially Apollo force)
18 (or fewer) units is simply too few to make a drive on Haven -- no mater how effective their missiles are.

Even Theisman, when arguing for Beatrice, makes the point that if Manticore had enough Apollo equipped ships to take Haven, or the prospect of having them soon, they wouldn't have revealed its existence at a secondary target like Lovat.

5-6 months later (July), at the Battle of Manticore, including the IAN's newest (now Apollo equipped) Adlers the GA had no more than 36 Apollo equipped ships (McKeon's 4 plus the 32 Honor brought) and again since only 4 or McKeon's 6 had Apollo it is likely that some noticeable fraction of Honor's ships also lacked it.

The earliest point at which Beth could likely have unleashed the RMN against Haven was probably around April 1922 - a bit over a year after Lovat. That's because the next significant influx of Apollo equipped ships[1] was the Python Lump, which we know had only just been launched and was still working up when Oyster Bay hit in late February '22.

So Honor wouldn't have been starting a drive on Haven right away. (And in fact she didn't. Lovat appears to have been around Feb '21 -- as news that Terekhov was about to move on Monica had just arrived before it; and the battle of Monica was that Feb -- and Honor was still at Trevor's Star in July when the BoM occurred. Because she didn't, yet, have the forces to capture Haven)
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[1] By the BoM they'd finished upgrading basically all the Keyhole ships to Apollo; which is the "fast" 6-8 week process. Upgrading the pre-Keyhole SD(P)s is a vastly longer and more expensive process - minimum of 7-8 months. In that time you could be almost halfway through building a new Invictus-class SD(P) - which would be more effective and survivable than a refit Medusa or Harrington. So, given their shortage of modern hulls, I can't see any significant number of first gen SD(P)s having been pulled out of service for long enough to receive Apollo. Hence, except for the newly completed tranche of updated Adlers, having to wait for the Python Lump to get more Apollo ships.
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by cthia   » Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:54 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Nope, by then Honor makes the team as quarterback. Hamish is the running back who ran the ball all the way to the goal line. Then Honor would be given Apollo to score the win. On the gridiron many will think 'that's not fair!'


I don't know that we're talking about the same thing. It's still not clear if you're talking about Apollo being available at the end of the first war or if you're talking about giving Hamish the courtesy of finishing the second war. I was talking about the second, in which case Honor had already done all the heavy-lifting.

sigh

This is getting to be silly. At any rate, I spoke to her over the phone on Easter.

My niece was talking about at any time. First war. Second war, any war in-between, or after.

The point she was trying to make to the college students is that someone who had to be choked to see the advantages of Apollo isn't the best person to use Apollo. Ever!

What heavy lifting are you talking about that has to be done after Apollo? After Apollo, there is no need to do any heavy lifting. Just make a beeline for Noveau Paris and destroy everything beyond its effective range. See Honor in the Sol system. The heavy lifting I was referring to is the heavy lifting that Saint-Just negated which Hamish had already accomplished.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Apollo at the end of the first war makes no sense. First, it doesn't change Operation Hassan, meaning that High Ridge still gains power and still accepts OSJ's cease-fire. The long-term effects of that would have been that High Ridge feels even more secure in drawing down the RMN, with disastrous consequences. Second, there would be no one with experience with it to give them to, so why in the galaxy would the RMN not give them to Hamish? While we may agree that he's not as good as Honor, in 1914 who else could step up?

No, not silly, this is getting to be insane. :facepalm:

None of that crap matters to someone who is heckling Hamish from the back of a comedy club.

Essentially, what my niece was saying to the college students is that she'd rather give Apollo birds to a kindergartener instead of Hamish. At any point.

"Hamish probably could get the job done, why not? He has Apollo. A fifth grader can prosecute the war at that point!

But in the after action analysis given to Hamish, expect a lot of "why the heck did you do that Hamish? With Apollo you could have ..."


At one point she said that even if Hamish did have Apollo, he may have lost a battle against natives who were just shooting spears. She just don't think much of Hamish's tactical ability at all. Period.

Again, I spoke to her on Easter. She said that Hamish could have taken a gun to a knife fight and lost it. She is still heckling Hamish as if she is in a comedy club. It is funny to her.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:33 am

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cthia wrote:The point she was trying to make to the college students is that someone who had to be choked to see the advantages of Apollo isn't the best person to use Apollo. Ever!


Considering no one had to undergo this choking at either the first or second war, I agree with you and her, because it's irrelevant. 100% of zero is still zero.

Hamish and Honor's conversation in 1910 was about pod-laying ships, not even about MDMs. Hamish had no trouble accepting missiles with longer range. By 1913 when Buttercup was readying to go, he'd been extensively training with the LACs too. He might not have seen the light when they were still paper ideas or prototypes, but once his mind was opened to the, he did embrace them. He was not stupid.

I don't think you can hold that against him. I wouldn't fault him for doubting initially and that would have been a petty reason to refuse to let him command the forces. Quite clearly and far more importantly for the story, there was no one better than him to execute Operation Buttercup. What admiral would you have take his command at this point in time?

As for the second war, there's no evidence whatsoever that he ever refused to see the advantages of Apollo when it was introduced. He failed to see some advantages, but it appears that everyone did too, including Honor at the beginning, so again you can't hold that against him either.

The difference is that at this point in the second war, there is someone better to command Eighth Fleet.

What heavy lifting are you talking about that has to be done after Apollo? After Apollo, there is no need to do any heavy lifting. Just make a beeline for Noveau Paris and destroy everything beyond its effective range. See Honor in the Sol system. The heavy lifting I was referring to is the heavy lifting that Saint-Just negated which Hamish had already accomplished.


That's my point. If all they wanted was to give him the courtesy of firing the final shots in the second war, all the heavy lifting is done.

None of that crap matters to someone who is heckling Hamish from the back of a comedy club.


Armchair quarterbacks? (I know at least some expressions of American football)

Who cares what drivel Janacek is spouting at this time, before High Ridge takes over? Why would you let those hecklers dictate your military policy? That's insane.

Essentially, what my niece was saying to the college students is that she'd rather give Apollo birds to a kindergartener instead of Hamish. At any point.

"Hamish probably could get the job done, why not? He has Apollo. A fifth grader can prosecute the war at that point!

But in the after action analysis given to Hamish, expect a lot of "why the heck did you do that Hamish? With Apollo you could have ..."


Considering no one had fired Apollos before, what could they compare it to? There is no baseline data.

Analysing performance of all operations is important, whether you won or lost. Those are meant to find out how to execute operations better in the future. Later generations at the Crusher would study those battles and find ways to improve, no doubt. So send those questions, by all means!

So long as he didn't commit any malpractice or ignore data that was available to him, there's nothing wrong.

At one point she said that even if Hamish did have Apollo, he may have lost a battle against natives who were just shooting spears. She just don't think much of Hamish's tactical ability at all. Period.

Again, I spoke to her on Easter. She said that Hamish could have taken a gun to a knife fight and lost it. She is still heckling Hamish as if she is in a comedy club. It is funny to her.


I have to disagree here, because the evidence points to a completely different picture. Hamish was no slouch. I think we can all agree he doesn't come anywhere near Honor's level and possibly a few more of her crop of officers, but he was still really good. Prince Roger was thinking he was one the most brilliant tacticians in 1855.

And he was given Third and then Eighth Fleets. He stood the latter up from scratch, after winning against McQueen's prepared defences of Trevor's Star with Third.

And as I asked above: I don't think there was anyone else available that was better than him.

I say that because the only name I could think of that would have been better than him at strategy and tactics at this time would be Alfredo Yu. But he's not someone you'd want to direct a war driving a stake through the republic of his birth all the way to Nouveau Paris. Not because he'd turn, but because you don't want to put him in the position of having to fire on old students of his like Theisman.
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by cthia   » Mon Apr 18, 2022 3:53 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:The point she was trying to make to the college students is that someone who had to be choked to see the advantages of Apollo isn't the best person to use Apollo. Ever!


Considering no one had to undergo this choking at either the first or second war, I agree with you and her, because it's irrelevant. 100% of zero is still zero.

Hamish and Honor's conversation in 1910 was about pod-laying ships, not even about MDMs. Hamish had no trouble accepting missiles with longer range. By 1913 when Buttercup was readying to go, he'd been extensively training with the LACs too. He might not have seen the light when they were still paper ideas or prototypes, but once his mind was opened to the, he did embrace them. He was not stupid.

I don't think you can hold that against him. I wouldn't fault him for doubting initially and that would have been a petty reason to refuse to let him command the forces. Quite clearly and far more importantly for the story, there was no one better than him to execute Operation Buttercup. What admiral would you have take his command at this point in time?

As for the second war, there's no evidence whatsoever that he ever refused to see the advantages of Apollo when it was introduced. He failed to see some advantages, but it appears that everyone did too, including Honor at the beginning, so again you can't hold that against him either.

The difference is that at this point in the second war, there is someone better to command Eighth Fleet.

What heavy lifting are you talking about that has to be done after Apollo? After Apollo, there is no need to do any heavy lifting. Just make a beeline for Noveau Paris and destroy everything beyond its effective range. See Honor in the Sol system. The heavy lifting I was referring to is the heavy lifting that Saint-Just negated which Hamish had already accomplished.


That's my point. If all they wanted was to give him the courtesy of firing the final shots in the second war, all the heavy lifting is done.

None of that crap matters to someone who is heckling Hamish from the back of a comedy club.


Armchair quarterbacks? (I know at least some expressions of American football)

Who cares what drivel Janacek is spouting at this time, before High Ridge takes over? Why would you let those hecklers dictate your military policy? That's insane.

Essentially, what my niece was saying to the college students is that she'd rather give Apollo birds to a kindergartener instead of Hamish. At any point.

"Hamish probably could get the job done, why not? He has Apollo. A fifth grader can prosecute the war at that point!

But in the after action analysis given to Hamish, expect a lot of "why the heck did you do that Hamish? With Apollo you could have ..."


Considering no one had fired Apollos before, what could they compare it to? There is no baseline data.

Analysing performance of all operations is important, whether you won or lost. Those are meant to find out how to execute operations better in the future. Later generations at the Crusher would study those battles and find ways to improve, no doubt. So send those questions, by all means!

So long as he didn't commit any malpractice or ignore data that was available to him, there's nothing wrong.

At one point she said that even if Hamish did have Apollo, he may have lost a battle against natives who were just shooting spears. She just don't think much of Hamish's tactical ability at all. Period.

Again, I spoke to her on Easter. She said that Hamish could have taken a gun to a knife fight and lost it. She is still heckling Hamish as if she is in a comedy club. It is funny to her.


I have to disagree here, because the evidence points to a completely different picture. Hamish was no slouch. I think we can all agree he doesn't come anywhere near Honor's level and possibly a few more of her crop of officers, but he was still really good. Prince Roger was thinking he was one the most brilliant tacticians in 1855.

And he was given Third and then Eighth Fleets. He stood the latter up from scratch, after winning against McQueen's prepared defences of Trevor's Star with Third.

And as I asked above: I don't think there was anyone else available that was better than him.

I say that because the only name I could think of that would have been better than him at strategy and tactics at this time would be Alfredo Yu. But he's not someone you'd want to direct a war driving a stake through the republic of his birth all the way to Nouveau Paris. Not because he'd turn, but because you don't want to put him in the position of having to fire on old students of his like Theisman.

Although you can apply the phrase to anyone, armchair quarterback is usually reserved for the backseat drivers who have never played the game at all, let alone ever been quarterback. I have the distinction of being both. I was quarterback from Midget League up through high school. I could throw the ball 60 yards flat footed. You ever been to the County Fair and seen those games where you had to throw a football thru a hole barely the size of the football? I would cause the guy to close that down. I would win the biggest stuffed animal for any little kid who wanted one.

Do note that some armchair quarterbacks are former football greats. Some at other positions, some at quarterback. Tom Brady will some day be an armchair quarterback.

What is an announcer, but a former football player, thus, an armchair quarterback.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:35 am

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cthia wrote:This is getting to be silly. At any rate, I spoke to her over the phone on Easter.

My niece was talking about at any time. First war. Second war, any war in-between, or after.

The point she was trying to make to the college students is that someone who had to be choked to see the advantages of Apollo isn't the best person to use Apollo. Ever!

Actually there is zero evidence that White Haven didn't, or wouldn't see the advantages of Apollo as soon as it was / would be developed.

We never see or hear about his reaction to it because he'd been out of active service for 7 years before it came around!. He was a civilian by that point. (Sure, as 1st Lord of the Admiralty he was presumably briefed on it before it reached active deployment in the fleet -- but we've no record of his initial reaction. However, given that he had fought with MDMs, and now well understood their issue with long range accuracy, I suspect he'd have reacted with joy to giving up 1/3 of his offensive MDMs to get even a 2x improvement in long range accuracy and effectiveness from the remainder (and of course we know that Apollo turned out to be significantly better than twice as effective)

So your niece appears to be either assuming facts not in evidence, or else confusing his reaction to the original MDM with a reaction to Apollo.


Of course we know he was entrusted with the first major use of MDMs, despite initially unthinkingly failing to see their advantages... (blinded by their downsides; being much larger, so yo can't carry as many plus being unable to fire from existing ships) Which makes is even harder to believe that he'd be denied Apollo even if he had somehow had an initial failure to appreciate its advantages.
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by Theemile   » Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:38 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:[

I have to disagree here, because the evidence points to a completely different picture. Hamish was no slouch. I think we can all agree he doesn't come anywhere near Honor's level and possibly a few more of her crop of officers, but he was still really good. Prince Roger was thinking he was one the most brilliant tacticians in 1855.

And he was given Third and then Eighth Fleets. He stood the latter up from scratch, after winning against McQueen's prepared defences of Trevor's Star with Third.

And as I asked above: I don't think there was anyone else available that was better than him.

I say that because the only name I could think of that would have been better than him at strategy and tactics at this time would be Alfredo Yu. But he's not someone you'd want to direct a war driving a stake through the republic of his birth all the way to Nouveau Paris. Not because he'd turn, but because you don't want to put him in the position of having to fire on old students of his like Theisman.


Some years back, I read a treatice on Nathan Bedford Forrest, a CSA Cavalry General in the American Civil War. The writer said that Forrest had "the finger" (actually he referred to a German term which meant roughly "Finger of fate"). He was installed with a preternatural ability to innately feel the tides of battle. He could look through a map - through the trees and hills, and point and send his men off with unerring tactical precision. He would point on a map and point to the exact place an enemy would be and how he would move, and point to the right troops, and point them the right way to go.

And his people knew it. They trusted him and his instincts, and would follow him anywhere that he pointed.

With "The Finger."

Theisman and Honor have "the finger", that is obvious. They just "know" what to do, and their subordinates know it. People line up before them, willingly marching through hell, knowing that the devil himself is quaking in his boots.

Hamish is a brilliant tactician & strategist; skilled, trained, experienced, and blooded. A Natural Leader, yes, but is missing "the finger". He's an analyst, a student of nature (of war) - not a force of it.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:47 pm

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Theemile wrote:Theisman and Honor have "the finger", that is obvious. They just "know" what to do, and their subordinates know it. People line up before them, willingly marching through hell, knowing that the devil himself is quaking in his boots.

Hamish is a brilliant tactician & strategist; skilled, trained, experienced, and blooded. A Natural Leader, yes, but is missing "the finger". He's an analyst, a student of nature (of war) - not a force of it.


Well said.

A dedicated & capable student can learn a lot and excel at a given task. That's Hamish and Yu, probably Courvoisier. D'Orville and Kuzak too, though Hamish would be one step above them.

And then there are prodigies.
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by cthia   » Tue Apr 19, 2022 8:35 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Theemile wrote:Theisman and Honor have "the finger", that is obvious. They just "know" what to do, and their subordinates know it. People line up before them, willingly marching through hell, knowing that the devil himself is quaking in his boots.

Hamish is a brilliant tactician & strategist; skilled, trained, experienced, and blooded. A Natural Leader, yes, but is missing "the finger". He's an analyst, a student of nature (of war) - not a force of it.


Well said.

A dedicated & capable student can learn a lot and excel at a given task. That's Hamish and Yu, probably Courvoisier. D'Orville and Kuzak too, though Hamish would be one step above them.

And then there are prodigies.

Agreed. Well said.

Theisman has a prosthetic finger???

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Sonja Hemphill
Post by cthia   » Tue Apr 19, 2022 8:48 am

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Doh! Oh, I get it. "Have the finger" follows along with the idiom "has the touch" or "has the Midas touch."

It went over my head. Don't I know how idioms can be misinterpreted. The context helped me work it out. I have never heard that idiom used in that form.

But it may not have been the best use of the idiom since Honor does quite literally "have the finger." LOL

My apology for temporarily donning the dunce cap. LOL

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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