Failure and the SLN...

It's really from a book on the battle of Midway, and he's talking about the IJN, but the SLN is what I thought of.

"Cohen and Gooch propose that all military failures fall into three basic categories: failure to learn from the past, failure to anticipate what the future may bring, and failure to adapt to the immediate circumstances on the battlefield. They further note that when one of these three basic failures occurs in isolation (known as a simple failure), the results, while unpleasant, can often also be overcome. Aggregate failures occur when two of the basic failure types, usually learning and anticipation, take place simultaneously, and these are more difficult to surmount. Finally, at the apex of failure stand those rare events when all three basic failures occur simultaneously-an event known as catastrophic failure. In such an occurrence, the result is usually a disaster of such scope that recovery is impossible."

Hi KZT,

Thanks for sharing this great analysis, but you left out the title of the book, which intrigues me considerably now.

Certainly the SLN has failed if not refused to learn, NTM refused to anticipate the future, and so far failed to adapt to the changed current state.

So the forecast self evident 'perfect storm' is going to be hugely epically devastating.

I don't see any change in the above conditions happening fast enough to prevent the truly cosmic crash or collapse of the SLN and the SL.

Quite aside from RFC's many posts, there is no weapon known or system that can resist even a single GA SDP squadron from destroying all its targets in any system in the SL.

Given the 800-900 of the RHN, and the ~400-500 of the RMN and GSN, before the combined GA design begins construction at Bolthole, leaving a third behind for local defense means some 8-900 SDP's could eliminate all the SLN targets; naval bases, shipyards and 'anchorages' for the BF and FF reserve fleets in 3 month's or less.

Even leaving half of the SDP's behind, which would be a ridiculous waste of resources when a single SDP in each system could destroy all projected commerce raiders attacking the system or threatening the planet, 600+ SDP's in 25-50 TF's could still destroy every naval base and shipyard in just a few month's that would give the GA a lot of time, ie 3-4 years to look for the RF NTM the MAlg, while an even smaller force of SDP's rode herd on what remains of the former SL, if there that many systems still interested in reestablishing the corrupt system that benefited so few at the expense of so many.

Then we'll see if the GA remembers these lessons you cited.

L

kzt wrote:It's really from a book on the battle of Midway, and he's talking about the IJN, but the SLN is what I thought of.

"Cohen and Gooch propose that all military failures fall into three basic categories: failure to learn from the past, failure to anticipate what the future may bring, and failure to adapt to the immediate circumstances on the battlefield. They further note that when one of these three basic failures occurs in isolation (known as a simple failure), the results, while unpleasant, can often also be overcome. Aggregate failures occur when two of the basic failure types, usually learning and anticipation, take place simultaneously, and these are more difficult to surmount. Finally, at the apex of failure stand those rare events when all three basic failures occur simultaneously-an event known as catastrophic failure. In such an occurrence, the result is usually a disaster of such scope that recovery is impossible."

Quite aside from RFC's many posts, there is no weapon known or system that can resist even a single GA SDP squadron from destroying all its targets in any system in the SL.

Well, there´s always the bad old fallback of numbers... If large numbers of SLN ships were massed at a site in preparation for an incoming attack, or arrives in the middle well enough to manage a halfdecent ambush, they can do it.

It would take ridiculously large numbers but...

And then there´s always the question how much of those bigassed system defense missiles exist in primary SL systems.

They may be dreadfully ineffective against GA ships, but as a force multiplier together with large numbers of ships they could get really annoying.

leaving a third behind for local defense means some 8-900 SDP's could eliminate all the SLN targets; naval bases, shipyards and 'anchorages' for the BF and FF reserve fleets in 3 month's or less.

Travel times and ammunition resupply needs says no they couldn´t. Well, unless there´s one heck of a lot more junctions and wormholes around, AND the GA can take complete control of all of them, neither of which i expect to be true.

There´s just too much distance to hit every BF and FF base everywhere, don´t forget FF deployment means they probably have lots of minor "forward bases" in systems they need some visible bootheels in.

Main and primary bases though, sure.

Even leaving half of the SDP's behind, which would be a ridiculous waste of resources when a single SDP in each system could destroy all projected commerce raiders attacking the system or threatening the planet, 600+ SDP's in 25-50 TF's could still destroy every naval base and shipyard in just a few month's that would give the GA a lot of time, ie 3-4 years to look for the RF NTM the MAlg, while an even smaller force of SDP's rode herd on what remains of the former SL, if there that many systems still interested in reestablishing the corrupt system that benefited so few at the expense of so many.

Problem with doing this would be political however, you greatly risk pushing the SL together rather than apart, if you go on a too generalised rampage.


*****

It's really from a book on the battle of Midway, and he's talking about the IJN, but the SLN is what I thought of.

"Cohen and Gooch propose that all military failures fall into three basic categories: failure to learn from the past, failure to anticipate what the future may bring, and failure to adapt to the immediate circumstances on the battlefield.

That seems like they´re more overzealous about coming up with easy and neat categorisation than anything else.

And it feels strange applying those to the battle of Midway, when so much of the outcome of that hinged on complete random chance.

USN had a pretty good force, a decent plan and great intel, but the IJN plan was good enough to potentially still work despite US intel, their forces were mostly good enough to be able to succeed, even if they could easily have ended up with a lot of losses even with success.

And one of the primary reasons for the outcome was in fact that the IJN really DID adapt to the battlefield. Had they simply dispatched their raid against Midway as planned instead of rearming for an antiship attack, that´s 3 carriers drastically less likely to sink early.

And a trashed Midway whose aircraft would be far less likely to do much for the rest of the battle. If they even survive the attack.

And with the USN air strike groups failing to find the IJN, except for an inspired guess, the whole mess could easily have turned out either way.

If anything, if i try to apply any of those 3 categories, the only one that works is the one about failing to learn from the past, and that´s in regards to US insistence on trying to keep using high level bombers to attack ships with. They barely ever hit anything with them, and by 1942, this was NOT news.

Both sides anticipated the other fairly well, with only tiny details determining how much it paid off, both sides adapted about as well as they could, with US getting the better draw from lady luck this time.

In simulations, Midway tend to be one of those battles where both sides can end up anywhere from horrible and utter defeat all the way to astounding and curbstomp victory.

If anyone ever runs as controller in such a sim, with the USN, never loose your TBF Avengers early, deadly mistake.

I see it happening the other way around. All the Sollies have to do to win in the end is to survive short term and get their collective fingers out of their a...s and quickly develop their own SD(P) and BC(P) ships AND system defence missiles... then marry the two systems together. Oh wait....they already have the Tecknadyne (sp?) missiles; they just do not know it yet League wide.

The Sollies just knowing the GA has FTF comm may mean that just knowing something is possible may save off considerable time developing your own. Key Hole? Apollo? I dunno there. My point is that not all the Sollies are stupid. There must be many who are very smart and may get a chance to perform. Never underestimate a sleeping giant, which the Sollie League might just be.

Regarding Midway? Wow, what a dice roll! It easily could have turned out the other way. What if that delayed float plane launched off one of the many Japanese heavy cruisers had spotted the USS Enterprise much sooner? Yeah, what if the IJN had gotten in the first ship strike ..FIRST? What if Halsey had been in command? Yikes! Too aggressive? I think the USN was just lucky. My read only.

HB of CJ (old coot) I Love This Forum

Tenshinai wrote:

It's really from a book on the battle of Midway, and he's talking about the IJN, but the SLN is what I thought of.

"Cohen and Gooch propose that all military failures fall into three basic categories: failure to learn from the past, failure to anticipate what the future may bring, and failure to adapt to the immediate circumstances on the battlefield.

That seems like they´re more overzealous about coming up with easy and neat categorisation than anything else.

His point was that the total (and generally successful) coverup by the Japanese government of Midway was what made it a total and complete disaster.

"Almost nobody in Japan heard about the Battle of Midway until after the war. The Emperor Hirohito, upon hearing of the debacle, ordered a comprehensive cover-up. The wounded were isolated on hospital ships. All mail was censored. Surviving enlisted men and officers were held incommunicado until they could be shipped off to distant battlefields from where it was hoped they would never return. The sunken ships themselves were gradually written off over the course of the war until their loss blended in with the general demise of the imperial fleet. In order to coordinate this effort, Hirohito created a special office of cabinet rank."
...
"The Japanese did not want to accept what Midway meant about their strategic assumptions and therefore they suppressed it. That was more damaging than the naval losses themselves. It was that failure to adjust to reality which doomed the empire."

Hmm, sound like any Honorverse organization you can think of?

Here's the link to the complete article, but note it is highly political as it uses the Midway disaster and coverup only as the starting point. Which is why I was reluctant to link to it here.

HB of CJ wrote:I see it happening the other way around. All the Sollies have to do to win in the end is to survive short term and get their collective fingers out of their a...s and quickly develop their own SD(P) and BC(P) ships AND system defence missiles... then marry the two systems together. Oh wait....they already have the Tecknadyne (sp?) missiles; they just do not know it yet League wide.

You've been told before that this isn't a quick process. Manticore at its peak took at least ten months to design a brand new waller hull and twenty-three months to build it. That's a season short of three years.

Smaller ships don't really have shorter design phases and they don't build that much more quickly than larger ships do - a 1.75MT BC(P) takes 17 months in the same yard as the waller. Still well over two years total.

New Tuscany Incident: 25 October 1921
Battle of New Tuscany: 17 November 1921
Battle of Spindle: early February 1922
2nd Battle of Manticore: 11 June 1922

The earliest a dead giveaway of the SLN's tech inferiority was the Battle of New Tuscany. If the SLN started a crash R&D project then, they could have completed blueprints and be starting to lay new-design hulls down around the same time as the Battle of Manticore. They have done none of these that we know of.

If the SL started working towards this goal two weeks after the Battle of Manticore, they wouldn't have their first BC(P) commissioned until September 1924, assuming they build as quickly as Manticore could. First SD(P) in March 1925.

For Havenite standards of production, add a year. For Solarians who have never been in a serious war, add two or three. Start looking in 1927/8 for your new-design SLN ships.

The peace talks between Haven and Manticore lasted five years, which is what enabled the Havenite Navy to rebuild a decisive force. If the GA gives the League that opportunity, the GA deserves to be destroyed.

ROFLMAO!


Now, sticking to the Honorverse, it remains theoretically possible for the SLN to recover. Others have expressed extreme optimism regarding the capability of the GA to destroy the SLN's infrastructure, but let us consider the numbers.

The SL has about 2,000 member systems including probably 1,000 densely populated, technologically advanced, and industrialized core systems. In contrast, Haven is what, 100 systems?

From Saltash we get a sense of how many missiles are needed to takedown even a backwater system but without trashing infrastructure. Five DDs launched four, triple salvos totallying 5 x 4 x 3 x 12 = 720 missiles.

This is a bit shy of 1,000 missiles. Taking out industrial infrastructure will increase the missile expenditure as will having to engage moderately effective defenses including Technodyne system defense missile pods.

Assume only 10,000 missiles expended per core system. That is a total of 10 million missiles or the load out of 2,000 SD(P)s.

The GA has the missile stockpile needed, barely.

Now consider time. During the Cutworm raids in AAC, Honor was trashing may be one system per month using the rough equivalent of an SD(P) squadron.

If the GA assigns 50 squadrons to raiding SL systems, then they take out 50 systems per month.

In 20 months, they can take down the SL.

Problem is, take out the industrial infrastructure after you have taken out interstellar commerce and these SL systems will collapse economically and socially. The same Potterry Barn rules that applied in Iraq will apply with the SL. You Break it, You Buy It. How will the GA provide security, governance and sustenance to these SL systems? How can they do this whhen they need to cover themselves from the Malign?

Interesting analysis, fly, but a couple of comments, if I may...

namelessfly wrote:Now, sticking to the Honorverse, it remains theoretically possible for the SLN to recover. Others have expressed extreme optimism regarding the capability of the GA to destroy the SLN's infrastructure, but let us consider the numbers.

The SL has about 2,000 member systems including probably 1,000 densely populated, technologically advanced, and industrialized core systems. In contrast, Haven is what, 100 systems?

No argument here. And for my own estimates, I'm imagining the SL region as a cube (cause the math is easier) about 400LY each side, which if Sol is the 'center', makes the fartherest systems about 200LY away--which seem more or less in agreement with the maps and the sometimes obscure text references...Anyway, that totals 64,000,000 cubic light years, which is a lot.

From Saltash we get a sense of how many missiles are needed to takedown even a backwater system but without trashing infrastructure. Five DDs launched four, triple salvos totallying 5 x 4 x 3 x 12 = 720 missiles.

This is a bit shy of 1,000 missiles. Taking out industrial infrastructure will increase the missile expenditure as will having to engage moderately effective defenses including Technodyne system defense missile pods.

Assume only 10,000 missiles expended per core system. That is a total of 10 million missiles or the load out of 2,000 SD(P)s.

The GA has the missile stockpile needed, barely.

I would argue that Saltash was an anomaly, since the four BC's that were there and had to be dealt with by those 720 missiles were a fortuitous break for Duendas, which he mentions in textev, IIRC. Otherwise he would have had only three destroyers, which would have taken..fewer...missiles to destroy, if they had engaged at all.

While I don't argue that SL systems will be trying to upgrade their defenses as word gets out, to date we have seen no indication that any SL system has pod-based defenses--they may well have them, or are trying desperately to get them, but I don't believe we've seen any (and why should they have them? They're the SOLARIAN LEAGUE and who would dare attack THEM?).

Plus, taking out infrastructure doesn't require missiles; as Oyster Bay demonstrated all to graphically, grasers do quite well in destroying space stations.

And both Haven and Beowulf will be buiding more pods as fast as they can...

Now consider time. During the Cutworm raids in AAC, Honor was trashing may be one system per month using the rough equivalent of an SD(P) squadron.

If the GA assigns 50 squadrons to raiding SL systems, then they take out 50 systems per month.

In 20 months, they can take down the SL.

Which would mean no new ships for the SL, given build time.

And perhaps even faster. Divide that 64,000,000 cubic light years into 160 more or less equal cubes, and you have areas of about 72-74 LY per side, or an area an average Haven Sector warship can cover in about 10 days, and put small task forces (say one CA or CL with a couple of destroyers) in each--with at least one ship being 'modern'. For planets with no defenses (the majority), "raiding" would be easy. For those with more robust defenses/SDP's, at each node where 8 of the smaller cubes meet (20 points), have a SD and/or CLAC Division along with support ships that can respond to the more well-defended systems.

And the main fleet(s) are out hitting the major shipbuilding and other SLN targets in the meantime....all of the above utilizing the wormhole network....

20 months may be to long for the SL....

Problem is, take out the industrial infrastructure after you have taken out interstellar commerce and these SL systems will collapse economically and socially. The same Pottery Barn rules that applied in Iraq will apply with the SL. You Break it, You Buy It. How will the GA provide security, governance and sustenance to these SL systems? How can they do this when they need to cover themselves from the Malign?

And there is the rub....to bring the war home, to make those systems quit and leave the SL, but not lead to long-term enmity with the Haven Sector. It'll be a neat trick, and one I'm looking forward to seeing the MWW pull off..provided he's figured out how to do it...

Double stacked, not triple.

HB of CJ wrote:Oh wait....they already have the Tecknadyne (sp?) missiles; they just do not know it yet League wide.

Ah, but DO they really HAVE them? Or is it actually the MA that have them?

HB of CJ wrote:The Sollies just knowing the GA has FTF comm may mean that just knowing something is possible may save off considerable time developing your own. Key Hole? Apollo? I dunno there. My point is that not all the Sollies are stupid. There must be many who are very smart and may get a chance to perform. Never underestimate a sleeping giant, which the Sollie League might just be.

Oh definitely. I´ve said the same thing and seen no reason to change my mind so far.

So many expects the SL to just roll over and play dead? It might, but it might also get really "tetchy"...

HB of CJ wrote:Regarding Midway? Wow, what a dice roll! It easily could have turned out the other way. What if that delayed float plane launched off one of the many Japanese heavy cruisers had spotted the USS Enterprise much sooner? Yeah, what if the IJN had gotten in the first ship strike ..FIRST? What if Halsey had been in command? Yikes! Too aggressive? I think the USN was just lucky. My read only.

Yeah, there were a lot of points there that could have turned out different.