The Alamo Contingency has already failed

tlb wrote:That raises a question for me. We were told that the ordinary people at Galton celebrated after Oyster Bay, thinking that they were responsible. What caused them to think that? Did they produce a large number of graser headed missiles, that were shipped somewhere? Did they think their Navy or the Mesan Navy ran operations to infiltrate those missiles into Manticore and Yeltsin? Or did they think there were still enough State Sec ships to do it?

The Galton Navy would know that they were not involved. There are not enough State Sec or Mesan ships to do it. So what is the basis for this delusion? The why is simple, the people of Galton had to believe to support the Alamo Contingency, but what is the supporting evidence?

Puidwen wrote:To be fair that one seems very plausible. As an example both manticore and haven during the war seem fond of pulling out technology and ops no one knew anything about including some of their own officers. So if you tell someone you did it and the reason they didn't know was it was on the extreme end of need to know, yeah i can see it.

I already agreed that the people might believe that; but the point is that bureaucracies create paper trails which can provide evidence for or against. The simplest example of proof against would be if Galton did not begin manufacturing the graser head until after the time when they could be supplied for Oyster Bay.

tlb wrote:I already agreed that the people might believe that; but the point is that bureaucracies create paper trails which can provide evidence for or against. The simplest example of proof against would be if Galton did not begin manufacturing the graser head until after the time when they could be supplied for Oyster Bay.

TEiF established that Galton did manufacture some graser warheads and shipped ahead of Oyster Bay. Where those ended up, we don't know. But they covered their tracks there.

The Galton Navy wouldn't need to know much either. The attack was clearly not performed with regular warships (nor at Beowulf). So the fact that none of their ships left port for this is not a problem. The fact that none of their regular admiralty knew anything about how the attack was accomplished is also acceptable.

tlb wrote:I already agreed that the people might believe that; but the point is that bureaucracies create paper trails which can provide evidence for or against. The simplest example of proof against would be if Galton did not begin manufacturing the graser head until after the time when they could be supplied for Oyster Bay.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:TEiF established that Galton did manufacture some graser warheads and shipped ahead of Oyster Bay. Where those ended up, we don't know. But they covered their tracks there.

The Galton Navy wouldn't need to know much either. The attack was clearly not performed with regular warships (nor at Beowulf). So the fact that none of their ships left port for this is not a problem. The fact that none of their regular admiralty knew anything about how the attack was accomplished is also acceptable.

That point was just an example of how things might go astray.

You are correct that files on Galton contain all the details that show how Galton would have conducted Oyster Bay and the attack on the Mycroft stations at Beowulf (and the bombs on the orbitals?). So once the GA investigators dig those out, we will see how well it matches the GA's records of the attacks. The records show that all the weapons were delivered by stealthy freighters (as was actually true of the Ghosts and Silver Bullets), but does Galton have sufficient examples of those freighters?

PS: TEiF also seemed to make it clear that the defense of Darius is more philosophical, than composed of military hardware. It is intended to show Darius was settled by non-aggressive elements trying to hide from the Malign. I do not see how the spider drive can fit into that scheme.

tlb wrote:That point was just an example of how things might go astray.

No disagreement there. Death by a thousand paper cuts.

You are correct that files on Galton contain all the details that show how Galton would have conducted Oyster Bay and the attack on the Mycroft stations at Beowulf (and the bombs on the orbitals?). So once the GA investigators dig those out, we will see how well it matches the GA's records of the attacks. The records show that all the weapons were delivered by stealthy freighters (as was actually true of the Ghosts and Silver Bullets), but does Galton have sufficient examples of those freighters?

Sure, I don't think that's a problem. Those freighters may actually have been manufactured or converted in Galton. We've discussed how a freighter calling on a well-known port like Beowulf may need to present proper records, so the specific ones that were used in either strike may have been purchased from a legitimate constructor, then only modified in Galton.

I don't know if the spec that it could hold a torpedo much larger than the warheads that Galton produced is going to raise an eyebrow. Maybe it's just two- or three-for-one space usage.

No, I don't think the freighters will be the issue. The weapons themselves will.

PS: TEiF also seemed to make it clear that the defense of Darius is more philosophical, than composed of military hardware. It is intended to show Darius was settled by non-aggressive elements trying to hide from the Malign. I do not see how the spider drive can fit into that scheme.

I agree with you there (see my post in the Attacking Darius thread in reply to penny) and my analysis of what I expect the next battles to be. Darius cannot be attacked from the wormhole, so as long as it can't be found via hyperspace, it's impregnable.

It's more likely to end up in a coup and the fifth column takes over than a Darius System Battle.

What exactly were the ordinary people at Galton told about Oyster Bay? That their Navy had struck at "the enemy" and dealt them devastating blows in two systems? Or their weapons were used by an an allied navy to do it? Or was it even called Oyster Bay and who (if anybody) did they say was struck?

If the Defense of Darius is to be more philosophical, they are going to have to somehow convince the GA (at least) that they are not the people who have been screwing around with other star nations though massive use of spies and corruption. That they didn't make the weapons used in Oyster Bay (and not have yards building LDs or other spider drive ships) and they are peaceful like the Benign Alignment left on Mesa.

That would also mean that there is someplace else that will be taking over (or the spiders were never built at Darius at all and "were never there") and the Good Alignment is going to have to hid all those interesting labs were Zack and his partner have been doing their work. So there is yet another place ultimately scheduled for destruction by a 3rd party (the GA) such as was accused of with the Final Flourish at Mesa or the attack and capture of Galton.

[It will be interesting to be given scenes of post GA attack at Galton if the local population is even more fanatical about their place in the universe than much of the population of Masada.]

This is the Alignment...we have Verdant Vista as Torch that targeted for a genicide event, Mesa to be brutalized 1st with the coverup of Houdini followed by nuclear weapons used to vaporize any Alignment operations areas now Galton as sacrificial decoy ...what's one more planet or entire star syeterm that has been developed over a couple of hundred years to be another sacrificial diversion?

These are Star Lines with their versions of Prolong and ships that can still move around undetected and send in spider drive weapons or ballistic packages to devastate anything in orbits---and who don't give a spit that debris (or a slightly off target weapon) slam into a inhabited planet. So send in the RF as missionaries to spread their philosophy of beneficial and needed improvements, and devastate entire planets or just "enough" of the leadership or scientists of said planets who don't convert over time to Detweilerim or whatever they are going to call it. Nanites are so useful, you can kill off so many people and it will look as if it was just bad luck or some undiagnosed illness and "poof" resistance is eliminated.

Great people, these Alignment,

A question about oyster bay. Hamish points outs that it had be an operation on a shoe string budget. However Galton had all those great big forts, so they obviously have some industrial capacity and their budget whatever it is, is not shoestring. How do you square these two?

Puidwen wrote:A question about oyster bay. Hamish points outs that it had be an operation on a shoe string budget. However Galton had all those great big forts, so they obviously have some industrial capacity and their budget whatever it is, is not shoestring. How do you square these two?

That may be another indication that was not really carried out by Galton.

Because the Plan was not running on the desired schedule, the ships that were supposed carry out the action were not ready. They were limited by the number of spider drive ships that were actually operational. One could ask, then why couldn't it run using Galton's resources, the way Galton thought it was? That should have permitted the wider attack that the Plan expected. I believe that the Sharks and Ghosts were actually needed. In particular the Ghosts collected the targeting information that needed to be handed off to the tugs of the Cataphract pods. The Sharks gave the initial velocity to let everything move into place, without emitting traces that could raise suspicion.

tlb wrote:

Puidwen wrote:A question about oyster bay. Hamish points outs that it had be an operation on a shoe string budget. However Galton had all those great big forts, so they obviously have some industrial capacity and their budget whatever it is, is not shoestring. How do you square these two?

That may be another indication that was not really carried out by Galton.

Probably true - though lack of spider drives at Galton seems the larger clue.

Still, it could be possible to square that discrepancy by assuming the Galton government spent too much of their available military budget on system defense, to the point of leaving their military's offensive elements only a shoestring of funding.

Potentially because their inexperience military, who after all had never fought a war, miscalculated their needs and advised the government poorly. Or it could be because of domestic political pressures which overrode military advice.

Puidwen wrote:A question about oyster bay. Hamish points outs that it had be an operation on a shoe string budget. However Galton had all those great big forts, so they obviously have some industrial capacity and their budget whatever it is, is not shoestring. How do you square these two?

tlb wrote:That may be another indication that was not really carried out by Galton.

Jonathan_S wrote:Probably true - though lack of spider drives at Galton seems the larger clue.

Still, it could be possible to square that discrepancy by assuming the Galton government spent too much of their available military budget on system defense, to the point of leaving their military's offensive elements only a shoestring of funding.

Potentially because their inexperience military, who after all had never fought a war, miscalculated their needs and advised the government poorly. Or it could be because of domestic political pressures which overrode military advice.

The cover story is that Galton's databases contain a paper trail for Oyster Bay accomplished without using a spider drive. We have pointed out many times before that this should be suspicious based on the conversations in the aftermath of the attack. Galton's society is not the sort that could permit domestic pressures to override military needs.

If the paper trail describes the attack as it actually occurred, shoestring and all; then it might pass as miscalculating the needs.

Puidwen wrote:A question about oyster bay. Hamish points outs that it had be an operation on a shoe string budget. However Galton had all those great big forts, so they obviously have some industrial capacity and their budget whatever it is, is not shoestring. How do you square these two?

I had to go back to MoH to see why they were coming to that conclusion. The only instance of the word "shoestring" in the book is not directly by Hamish, but by Oversteegen talking to Khumalo and relating the conclusions of the Admiralty, in Chapter 36. Going back to the actual discussion for his reasoning, he said:

Mission of Honor, Ch. 30 wrote:"[...] But, secondly, the one thing that's struck me about this—in addition to what Tom and Sonja have said about new drive technologies—is that the people behind it can't have a very large navy."

"What?" Grantville blinked at his brother, and most of the other people around the table looked either surprised or downright skeptical. Caparelli, on the other hand, nodded firmly.

"This about it, Willie," White Haven said. "If someone had anything like the number of capital ships we have, and if all of them had this kind of technology, they wouldn't have had to raid our infrastructure. They could have simply arrived, demonstrated their invisibility, and demanded our surrender, and we wouldn't have had any choice but to give it to them. If they'd gotten a couple of dozen capital ships with this new drive of theirs as far in-system as they got their pods before launch, what other option would we have had? Even if we'd wanted to bring in Home Fleet—every single ship at Trevor's Star for that matter—they'd already have control of the planetary orbitals long before we could get into position. For taht matter, they'd've been into missile range of the planets before we could even bring the system-defence missiles online to nail them! And even unde the Eridani Edict, they'd be fully justified in bombarding the planets if we refused to surrender under those circumstances. But instead of going for the jugular, they attacked our arms and legs.

"Not only that, but the nature and pattern of the attack strongly suggest that whoever planned and launched it was operating with strictly limited resources. [...] But successful as it was, it was essentially a hit-and-run raid, albeit on a massive scale, and its success—as Tom has just pointed out—derived entirely from the fract it achieved total strategic and tactical surprise. If any significant percentage of the weapons committed to it—either those graser platforms or the missile pods—had failed, or had been detected on their way in, or even if we'd only suspected something ws coming in time to alert the stations and activate their sidewalls and get the tugs deployed to interpose their wedges against potential attacks, the damage would have been much less severe. [...] The people who put this together had to be as well aware of those possibilities as I am, and they have to know the axiom that anything which can go wrong, will go wrong. True, they seem to have pretty much avoided that this time around, but they damned well knew better than to count on that. So if they'd had more resources to commit to the attack, we'd have seen overkill, not just 'exactly enough to do the job if everything works perfectli.'"

(italics from the source, bold mine)

So what he's claiming is that this attack did succeed but only because nothing going wrong for the attackers and thus achieved total surprise. He gave a number of reasons why a little going wrong for the attackers would have given enough notice for the defenders to thwart the attack anywhere from mildly to fully. Whether that would have actually happened based on the fact that this was entirely unprecedented is besides the point: his argument is that the attackers couldn't count on everything going right the way it did. So he concludes that the lack of overkill implies that it used absolutely all the resources that could be dedicated to the task.

He goes further by claiming that if they did have more resources, the tactics would have been different and could have demanded surrender. This, of course, while logical is actually not correct, because it was not the objective. The objective was not to capture and control Manticore, but to cause either Haven or the League to do so while remaining hidden.

So, back to your question: how does this now work with the realisation that the Galton Navy did have dozens of capital ships? The important bit is actually when he says "all of them had this kind of technology" and that remains true: none of the ships at Galton had this drive technology. So when he says "the people behind it can't have a very large navy," what he said is strictly incorrect because the MAlign did have one of the Top 5 navies in the Galaxy, but he's what he meant is qualitatively correct because they didn't and still don't have a large navy equipped with this stealth technology.

This is also a retcon for all we can tell, but remains correct.