Axelrod and SKM relationship

Jonathan_S wrote:And unless the BCs were able to resupply and get maintained in Beowulf's yards (or at least use Beowulf's terminus and have yards in some relatively close-by system) I don't even think 32 BCs would be enough.

Mind you, they didn't know where the other terminus led to in 1535 when the plan was hatched and Llyn dispatched to Haven to find the contact with the Volsungs. They could have done the survey in secret, transited, and when finding Beowulf right there, attempt this deal, but there's a very important risk that someone else will clue in that there's a wormhole there and beat you to the transit. As the final chapter of ACTD said, the data was there in the navigation logs; and as we found out in ACTI, someone in Manticore was and had been paying attention to the possibility.

Oh, and all this assumes you only need to face Manticore. You don't have the forces to blockade them into their system, so there's nothing to stop them from sending envoys to try and convince one of their powerful distant neighbors (like Haven or the Andermani) to assist. Offering a cut of future wormhole fees might be a powerful incentive to back Manticore.

Good point. Axelrod did plan to create a diversion for those two so they wouldn't take notice. Either of which would be more than a match for any except the topmost SDFs in the League and the SLN itself. Don't forget that the IAN was the only navy at this time besides the SLN to have battleships, and we know they had more than one even.

At this point in time, Haven would jump at this, for the principle of kicking an invader out of their sector, and for the revenue. With the deal in place, they might never have declined compared to Manticore and thus been subject to the MAlign's machinations later on.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
At this point in time, Haven would jump at this, for the principle of kicking an invader out of their sector, and for the revenue. With the deal in place, they might never have declined compared to Manticore and thus been subject to the MAlign's machinations later on.

I think Haven was still the glorious beacon of hope, not the United States of Woke Socialism. So they didn't need that stream of money and were not expansionist. So I don't think they would go for this then, but I'd certainly go ask them if I couldn't find A SL backer and couldn't get the SEM to make a deal.

Also, without the second or third terminus it's a really long flight to Haven. Not as long as to Sol, but long.

What Axelrod really needed was the OFS and a task force of Frontier Fleet units to hold the Junction. But alas they can't exist in the forms we've come to know from 400 years later -- if they did, Axelrod would definitely have used them. True, Axelrod didn't want the League to find out too soon because it had a contract with the League about administering wormholes, but this implies that Axelrod, even as one of the largest transstellars, couldn't corrupt the League officials sufficiently in this domain.

FF probably had its roots at this time. Since BCs were the top of the line for everyone and the SLN was busy building battleships, it would have begun transferring its older BCs to the FF. They probably did have a lot of cruisers and destroyers, so FF probably did exist.

OFS probably existed too, but at this time it was probably what its name implied: frontier security. And the Outer Shell of the League was way too far from Manticore at this time for OFS to be able to excuse its intervention.

ThinksMarkedly wrote: And the Outer Shell of the League was way too far from Manticore at this time for OFS to be able to excuse its intervention.

Not at all. It's right next to Beowulf. Via the wormhole...

kzt wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote: And the Outer Shell of the League was way too far from Manticore at this time for OFS to be able to excuse its intervention.

Not at all. It's right next to Beowulf. Via the wormhole...

But nobody knows that until the first transit.

BTW, it occurs to me that if Axelrod had been successful in conquering Manticore (even by proxy), that first transit to Beowulf might have been too much of a good thing. The probability that Beowulf would look into the conquest is non-negligible and I suspect that the probability that they would decide that the Manticoreans, not a conqueror (especially one that wasn't a close neighbor), should receive the benefits of that junction is also non-negligible.

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:
But nobody knows that until the first transit.

BTW, it occurs to me that if Axelrod had been successful in conquering Manticore (even by proxy), that first transit to Beowulf might have been too much of a good thing. The probability that Beowulf would look into the conquest is non-negligible and I suspect that the probability that they would decide that the Manticoreans, not a conqueror (especially one that wasn't a close neighbor), should receive the benefits of that junction is also non-negligible.

Depends on the govt of Beowulf at the time. 1900s Beowulf- definitely. 1540's Beowulf, we just don't know. You are probably right, but attitudes, and governments, sway over time.

That’s why the assumption that you couldn’t get beowulf on board with my plan seems questionable. Maybe you can’t, but maybe you can. Things can change a lot in that long a stretch of time.

But the sunk cost of the survey is peanuts compared to the cost of a successful Special Military Operation, much less the cost of one that goes really wrong. So taking on all that risk yourself is pretty risky unless that is the usual course of business for you. And if you hire mercenaries to do this for you that is going to cost a huge amount, then you have to garrison it against someone else copying you and taking it away.

kzt wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote: And the Outer Shell of the League was way too far from Manticore at this time for OFS to be able to excuse its intervention.

Not at all. It's right next to Beowulf. Via the wormhole...

Which loops back to it is impractical for Axelrod to hold the wormhole without also controlling Manticore [u]unless[/i] Beowulf supports them (or at the very least doesn't interfere with using the Beowulf terminus to maintain and supply the Junction defenses).

Beowulf would basically be the sword of Damocles suspended over Axelrod's ownership/possession of the Junction -- and they'd need to somehow prevent Beowulf from ever caring enough to take the slightest action against that possession. (So, basically don't do anything that could generate enough PR to make Manticore seem more sympathetic than Axelrod, nor anything to significantly annoy Beowulf's people - lest Beowulfian public opinion move their government and navy to deny Axelrod the Beowulf terminus)

Jonathan_S wrote:Which loops back to it is impractical for Axelrod to hold the wormhole without also controlling Manticore [u]unless[/i] Beowulf supports them (or at the very least doesn't interfere with using the Beowulf terminus to maintain and supply the Junction defenses).

Beowulf would basically be the sword of Damocles suspended over Axelrod's ownership/possession of the Junction

Don't forget it'll probably take decades before enough wormhole network is discovered to make the Junction a major moneymaker.

And the forces to maintain control over it against a potentially hostile Manticore aren't cheap -- so I'd imagine the seizure would be running at a loss initially and it might take a couple decades to get to just annual breakeven. Makes that junction-only seizure a bit of an economic gamble - what are the odds that something will cause you to lose control before traffic finally grows enough to pay back all those upfront and ongoing costs and start producing real profit?

But if you'd gotten your hirelings to give you control over Manticore then you need far fewer defensive forces, you can base the ones you do need out of the local system. under the control of your local puppet government, and the system and your navy there are self-funding -- you don't need to sink extra Axelrod dollars into it while waiting for wormhole revenue to grow. (Heck, using the wormhole you might be able to turn it control of the system into a profit center, selling Manticoran citizens League products or tech upgrades -- at least if you can turn those Manticoran dollars into export goods that'll sell profitably in the League)

Jonathan_S wrote:Beowulf would basically be the sword of Damocles suspended over Axelrod's ownership/possession of the Junction -- and they'd need to somehow prevent Beowulf from ever caring enough to take the slightest action against that possession. (So, basically don't do anything that could generate enough PR to make Manticore seem more sympathetic than Axelrod, nor anything to significantly annoy Beowulf's people - lest Beowulfian public opinion move their government and navy to deny Axelrod the Beowulf terminus)

Well, that’s why you cut them in.