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"What if" after HH09

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"What if" after HH09
Post by Reflame   » Wed Apr 26, 2023 9:12 am

Reflame
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Hi, folks; I'd like to hear someone's opinion: Why did Grayson respect the treacherous decision of Mantichore to accept Saint Just's offer to a ceasefire in the final chapters of HH09 Ashes of Victory?

At that time, Grayson was close to having their own LAC carriers and it had a certain number of pod SDs. I think this should be enough to repulse any attack of Haven army against Yeltsin star - although I am not entirely sure what if Haven sent hundreds of SDs (and how probable this was).

So if I were part of Grayson leadership, I would not sign any ceasefire and I would build:
- A large number of pods of long-range missiles to defend Yeltsin system with only a limited support of mobile units.
- At least a few LAC carriers.
- And complete some pod superdreadnoughts under constructin.

I'd like to believe that building these things would take less than a year, maybe much less, and therefore much less than Haven would need to come up with an efficient defense against the long range missiles fired in huge volleys by pod SDs.

And then, I believe that Grayson could cautiously try any combinations of this:
* Launch attacks devastating the infrastructure of small unimportant (or even large, populous and important) planets as did Honor in HH11; they would have fewer ships, but a huge advantage both in range and in senzoric reconnaissance.
* Launch cautious attacks against the Haven system, trying whether they can destroy a small part Haven's infrastructure without suffering many casualties.
* Increase the intensity (boldness) of these attacks until Haven's orbital and mobile units are destroyed, and then demand the surrender.

If I were the protector of Grayson or the admiral in command, I would try attacking smaller Haven system cautiously very soon, practically immediately, with a part of my fleet while the rest defends Grayson until system-defense pods can be installed in numbers. I would verify whether even few pod SDs can win such battles with very little casualties, and then I would gradually increase the pressure and devastation as much as I could.

I'd like to think that it is a matter of several months to make and install enough system-defense pods - and then my mobile forces can systematically destroy and advance in the same way as White Haven did, although more slowly because I have much fewer pod SD and almost no LAC carriers.

But what would prevent my fleet to arrive into the system (with a small or large planet) with very many ammunition ships waiting in hyperspace, destroying mobile ships and infrastructure (both industrial and military) from a safe distance, then replenishing armor (as did Tourville in HH11 when attacking Alison - or was it Zanzibar?) again and again.

And of course, I would send destroyers irregularly to scout around both small and large planets, as did Honor in HH11, so the enemy would not know where to expect an attack.

And meanwhile, I would demand a honorable surrender, promising that Grayson (or Alliance) will rule over surrendered Haven empire in a similarly generous way as Germany and Japan was ruled after WWII - it brought them much prosperity and they were no longer a threat to their neigbours. But I would absolutely not expect such demand to be accepted soon (before my ships orbit Nouveau Paris in the destroyed Haven system).

- - - -

Please, to be clear: I believe that Grayson could NOT do it, but I would like to know why. Which part of this strategy would have failed. Is it because Grayson had too few ships, and most of them was needed to defend the Yeltsin's star because system-defense pods are NOT as omnipotent (even with this wonderful range) and/or NOT as easy to produce and install? And therefore too few ships would be available to launch those strikes? And it would go too slowly and Haven would have time to stage an efficient defense?
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Theemile   » Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:33 am

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Reflame wrote:Hi, folks; I'd like to hear someone's opinion: Why did Grayson respect the treacherous decision of Mantichore to accept Saint Just's offer to a ceasefire in the final chapters of HH09 Ashes of Victory?

At that time, Grayson was close to having their own LAC carriers and it had a certain number of pod SDs. I think this should be enough to repulse any attack of Haven army against Yeltsin star - although I am not entirely sure what if Haven sent hundreds of SDs (and how probable this was).

So if I were part of Grayson leadership, I would not sign any ceasefire and I would build:
- A large number of pods of long-range missiles to defend Yeltsin system with only a limited support of mobile units.
- At least a few LAC carriers.
- And complete some pod superdreadnoughts under constructin.

I'd like to believe that building these things would take less than a year, maybe much less, and therefore much less than Haven would need to come up with an efficient defense against the long range missiles fired in huge volleys by pod SDs.

And then, I believe that Grayson could cautiously try any combinations of this:
* Launch attacks devastating the infrastructure of small unimportant (or even large, populous and important) planets as did Honor in HH11; they would have fewer ships, but a huge advantage both in range and in senzoric reconnaissance.
* Launch cautious attacks against the Haven system, trying whether they can destroy a small part Haven's infrastructure without suffering many casualties.
* Increase the intensity (boldness) of these attacks until Haven's orbital and mobile units are destroyed, and then demand the surrender.

If I were the protector of Grayson or the admiral in command, I would try attacking smaller Haven system cautiously very soon, practically immediately, with a part of my fleet while the rest defends Grayson until system-defense pods can be installed in numbers. I would verify whether even few pod SDs can win such battles with very little casualties, and then I would gradually increase the pressure and devastation as much as I could.

I'd like to think that it is a matter of several months to make and install enough system-defense pods - and then my mobile forces can systematically destroy and advance in the same way as White Haven did, although more slowly because I have much fewer pod SD and almost no LAC carriers.

But what would prevent my fleet to arrive into the system (with a small or large planet) with very many ammunition ships waiting in hyperspace, destroying mobile ships and infrastructure (both industrial and military) from a safe distance, then replenishing armor (as did Tourville in HH11 when attacking Alison - or was it Zanzibar?) again and again.

And of course, I would send destroyers irregularly to scout around both small and large planets, as did Honor in HH11, so the enemy would not know where to expect an attack.

And meanwhile, I would demand a honorable surrender, promising that Grayson (or Alliance) will rule over surrendered Haven empire in a similarly generous way as Germany and Japan was ruled after WWII - it brought them much prosperity and they were no longer a threat to their neigbours. But I would absolutely not expect such demand to be accepted soon (before my ships orbit Nouveau Paris in the destroyed Haven system).

- - - -

Please, to be clear: I believe that Grayson could NOT do it, but I would like to know why. Which part of this strategy would have failed. Is it because Grayson had too few ships, and most of them was needed to defend the Yeltsin's star because system-defense pods are NOT as omnipotent (even with this wonderful range) and/or NOT as easy to produce and install? And therefore too few ships would be available to launch those strikes? And it would go too slowly and Haven would have time to stage an efficient defense?



Hi Reflame, Welcome to the Forum - The first Virtual Old Tillman is on us - the rest you need to source on your own... and supplies are hard to find these days.

That being said, this has come up a few times over theyears and David addressed it at least once some years ago, and I'm having difficulty finding the record of it.

While Grayson was immensely stronger than they were 10 years earlier, they still had only about 50-65 SDs at the end of the war, with less than 1/2 being Podlayers. (10 surviving Desquesnes SDs, 22 Steadholder Denevski SDs, 3 Benjamin the Great SDs, and 20-30 SD(p)s). 6 Minotaur CLACs were built by Manticore for the GSN, and were delivered peri-ceasefire.

Shortly after the cease fire, Grayson took over the 34 surviving Victory class SDs from Manticore's fleet as the RMN stood them down (the GSN may also have been crewing a few prior to the ceasefire.), and at some point bought the 21 Havenite Prize SDs from Manticorian service. (But all that's in the future, from the point we're discussing.)

However, at this time, Haven still had >300 SDs, ~50 DNs, and over 100 BBs.

If memory serves, at the time of the Ceasefire:

1) Grayson was mad and wanted to reject the ceasefire
2) Grayson saw through the lies and didn't trust the Peeps
3) but... Manticore was the senior alliance partner and wanted to end the war on internal Political grounds (See High Ridge conspiracy)
4) The rest of the Alliance members were sick of the war and followed Manticore's lead (This includes Erewhon and Talbot, the only other polities we know to have SDs in the Manticorian Alliance).
5) Grayson had fewer than 75 Capital ships, compared to ~500+ on the PRN side, so Grayson alone on their own were at a massive numerical disadvantage.
6) Without Numbers, Grayson could not hope to tie down a large enough amount of the Havenite force to keep the PRN from forming a fleet they thought could attack Yeltsin's Star. (the "Fleet in Being" concept was critical for strategic thinking prior to and during the 1st Havenite war)
7) Grayson alone had 0 strategic depth - any attack against Grayson strength would be a strike on their home system, and potentially greatly weaken the home system, if not destroy it.

So Grayson followed the lead of the Alliance and bided their time, purchasing 55 retired SDs from Manticore, completing 104 Harringtons, starting to build Harrington 2s (11 completed interwar), and completing 18 additional CLACs and 40 BC(p)s before the next war started, allowing them to field >250 Capital ships on Day 1 of the 2nd war, and greatly effect the results.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Reflame   » Thu Apr 27, 2023 2:20 pm

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Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:00 am

Thank you, Theemile. If I understand you, you don't question that Grayson attacks could damage Havenite infrastructure badly, but you say that Grayson army would not be able to defend its planet.

But suppose that I am a mad Grayson commander. While I am building an attack force to decide the war, I put 90% of my fleet on guard in Grayson, sending only 10%, accompanied by smaller units and many ammunition ships (full of long-range missiles), to attack cautiously against the Havenite infrastructure in the least important systems - with the intention of fast but gradual increasing their boldness if this tactics works and I don't suffer casualties. And with the intention to increase this percentage (how many of my ship are engaged in HH11-style attacks) significantly as soon as I am reasonably confident that Yeltsin is safe.

But as long as I have not built more SD(P), my priority is the defense of Yeltsin system. I will place literally thousands (can I place tens of thousands?) of pods with long range missiles in the system. I don't place them too close to one another, because I don't want the attacker to destroy them by proximity nuke explosions. I will have my officers run very intense simulations about controlling the missiles, about firing schemes etc. And I will try to build many long-range missiles; the defense of Yeltsin is a top priority, but I also want my attacking fleet to have enough of them. And I will do all that I can to increase the number of control lines in my fleet, so that I can fire huge salvos that (hopefully) saturate the invader's defense.

What would happen then?

a) How much damage could my attacking force inflict without being hit? I will have very few SD(P) with many ammunition ship; if they are not stopped, they can slowly but systematically destroy infrastructure in ... do I exaggerate when I say: in any system? They will be defended by at least a dozen old-style SDs and by many battlecruisers. Well, perhaps I am imagining things too easily... They would have to dare deep inside the hyper-limit... But with the superior recon probes, they should be safe against any attack, with time enough to start acceleration outside the system if mobile forces start moving against this formation - even assuming that they can have a much larger fleet in _every_ system than my attack fleet.

What could go wrong if I do this, or even do this against well-defended systems? I probably imagine things far far too easily for Grayson, but still: what would happen? How could these systems defend? By keeping part of their fleet outside the hyperlimit so they can micro-jump near me, as did several commanders in HH11, e.g. Genevieve Chin's Fifth fleet in the First Battle of Manticore? I admit that the Peeps would have time to think about a counter-strategy when they see what I am doing in their systems, but could they come up with a working strategy?

I imagine that a single small fleet (which I mentioned above) could destroy the infrastructure in any system (or any except the well defended ones) and then move to another without flying to Grayson to resupply, because it will have supply ships and because it won't need repair ships too much. And as I said, I will increase the boldness gradually.

b) Suppose that Haven attacks massively on my system. I probably agree that I cannot tie their ships and so they will attack in a very high number. But I think that before they can open fire, I will have time to fire many salves (volleys), each with as many missiles as I can control. The attacking Havenite fleet can launch a huge number of counter-missiles, but my attacking (guiding) systems are very good thanks to the new technologies. I will destroy a certain number of the huge number of SDs. What will prevent me from destroying all of them? Will I run out of time and they will get close enough to return fire?

Or will I run out of pods? If *this* is the only reason why my strategy cannot work, then how long would it take to produce enough pods with missiles? And then let half of my forces guard the system and send the other half to destroy Havenite infrastructure.

I have a few other ideas, what I would do as the Grayson commander if the Protector won't allow me to perform this strategy and he agrees with the ceasefire. But let's make it interesting: I'll wait for an answer to this strategy first. Anybody's insight or speculation is welcome.

An I stress again: I believe that I am wrong, but I ask where.

Reflame
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Theemile   » Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:53 pm

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Reflame wrote:Thank you, Theemile. If I understand you, you don't question that Grayson attacks could damage Havenite infrastructure badly, but you say that Grayson army would not be able to defend its planet.

But suppose that I am a mad Grayson commander. While I am building an attack force to decide the war, I put 90% of my fleet on guard in Grayson, sending only 10%, accompanied by smaller units and many ammunition ships (full of long-range missiles), to attack cautiously against the Havenite infrastructure in the least important systems - with the intention of fast but gradual increasing their boldness if this tactics works and I don't suffer casualties. And with the intention to increase this percentage (how many of my ship are engaged in HH11-style attacks) significantly as soon as I am reasonably confident that Yeltsin is safe.

But as long as I have not built more SD(P), my priority is the defense of Yeltsin system. I will place literally thousands (can I place tens of thousands?) of pods with long range missiles in the system. I don't place them too close to one another, because I don't want the attacker to destroy them by proximity nuke explosions. I will have my officers run very intense simulations about controlling the missiles, about firing schemes etc. And I will try to build many long-range missiles; the defense of Yeltsin is a top priority, but I also want my attacking fleet to have enough of them. And I will do all that I can to increase the number of control lines in my fleet, so that I can fire huge salvos that (hopefully) saturate the invader's defense.

What would happen then?

a) How much damage could my attacking force inflict without being hit? I will have very few SD(P) with many ammunition ship; if they are not stopped, they can slowly but systematically destroy infrastructure in ... do I exaggerate when I say: in any system? They will be defended by at least a dozen old-style SDs and by many battlecruisers. Well, perhaps I am imagining things too easily... They would have to dare deep inside the hyper-limit... But with the superior recon probes, they should be safe against any attack, with time enough to start acceleration outside the system if mobile forces start moving against this formation - even assuming that they can have a much larger fleet in _every_ system than my attack fleet.

What could go wrong if I do this, or even do this against well-defended systems? I probably imagine things far far too easily for Grayson, but still: what would happen? How could these systems defend? By keeping part of their fleet outside the hyperlimit so they can micro-jump near me, as did several commanders in HH11, e.g. Genevieve Chin's Fifth fleet in the First Battle of Manticore? I admit that the Peeps would have time to think about a counter-strategy when they see what I am doing in their systems, but could they come up with a working strategy?

I imagine that a single small fleet (which I mentioned above) could destroy the infrastructure in any system (or any except the well defended ones) and then move to another without flying to Grayson to resupply, because it will have supply ships and because it won't need repair ships too much. And as I said, I will increase the boldness gradually.

b) Suppose that Haven attacks massively on my system. I probably agree that I cannot tie their ships and so they will attack in a very high number. But I think that before they can open fire, I will have time to fire many salves (volleys), each with as many missiles as I can control. The attacking Havenite fleet can launch a huge number of counter-missiles, but my attacking (guiding) systems are very good thanks to the new technologies. I will destroy a certain number of the huge number of SDs. What will prevent me from destroying all of them? Will I run out of time and they will get close enough to return fire?

Or will I run out of pods? If *this* is the only reason why my strategy cannot work, then how long would it take to produce enough pods with missiles? And then let half of my forces guard the system and send the other half to destroy Havenite infrastructure.

I have a few other ideas, what I would do as the Grayson commander if the Protector won't allow me to perform this strategy and he agrees with the ceasefire. But let's make it interesting: I'll wait for an answer to this strategy first. Anybody's insight or speculation is welcome.

An I stress again: I believe that I am wrong, but I ask where.

Reflame


That is not really what I'm saying, as much as that is what the Author said in response to previous questions as such. However, I agree with him.

On the eve of the ceasefire, Grayson's fleet of ~75 capital ships were dispersed with Manticore's fleet and the rest protecting the Alliance and part of the 8th Fleet spear. It's going to take a minimum of 2-3 months to coalesce the Grayson Fleet into something that can do as you are saying. In that time, any Alliance forces stationed in Yeltsin's star will also be returning to their home systems once the call is sent, so there will be a period where Yeltsin will have it's defenses drawn down, prior to when the dispersed Grayson forces can return - so the Grayson portion of 8th fleet continuing it's rampage would invite retaliation during a period where Grayson would be overly vulnerable.

Grayson already had ships on the stocks being built and would slowly pump out ~24 SD(p)s and 6 Carriers every year, as well 2 BC(p)s a month (starting at some point about 1 year after the ceasefire). So construction is pretty much already on rails.

As for your 10/90 ratio - that Grayson assault force would be 1 Squadron of SD(p)s, 1 CLAC, and a squadron of light/medium combatants as a screen against 500+ (Dispersed) Peep capital forces and 1000+ lighter units. A squadron of reinforcements would drop you to 20/80

To be honest, 1 squadron can probably stand off ~50 conventional ships in a pitched battle - more if they are able to catch them unawares. However, 1st Gen Podlayers are very limited in their loadouts (512, 10 MDM pods, plus about 5000 tube missiles), and will easily run out of ammo in a sortie - meaning the avenging commander is not invincible and needs to choose his battles carefully.

However, you forgot geopolitics and logistics. If Grayson continues to attack, Manticore will be forced to back or renounce Grayson actions. And High Ridge would have abandoned Grayson quicker than they did in the official timeline. That means no access to Manticorian production, and more importantly, Manty bases, fleet trains, wormholes, or the 55 SDs Grayson later purchased and the remaining Minotaur CLACS not yet delivered.

Grayson never took a forward base on it's own, so has a logistical tail all the way running back to Grayson, and no established or independant forward fleet bases. In addition, we have never seen the Grayson forces working without Manticorian Fleet trains prior to 1919, and without a large merchant marine, this probably means that the Grayson fleet train and logistical arm is lacking for power projection without surge capability.

So our Rampaging commander will quickly run out of ammo and damage will quickly knock out units, and any fleet train replacements, or reinforcements will be 3-4 months in the rear, with no local bases or allies to assist.

I mentioned the Strategic Thought of "Fleet in Being" previously. Simply, that means you have the ability to coalesce a force large enough to hypothetically overpower any smaller force an opponent could field without making any of his responsibilities overly vulnerable. With a battlefield spread over light months, this concern is magnified ans intell is virtually always outdated and unreliable.

It's the reason why Haven never attacked Manticore itself (or Vice versa) in the 1st war- after the first days of the war, they couldn't field a force capable of knocking out Manticore while simultaneously defending their vital systems. There was always a worry that Manticore could do a repeat of what they did at 3rd Yeltsin - they could use their internal lines to stealthly reinforce a system from other commands and lay a trap - or to do a massive raid on a critical Havenite system and return to defend Manticore while an attacking force is in motion, but before they could reach their target and take advantage of the vacancy. (After Trevor's star was taken by Manticore, this worry became doubly so for Haven).

For Grayson, any assault force sent out will be gone 6-8 months without the wormhole network, and draw down Grayson's defensive power that much more. And as I said, Grayson only has 75 capital ships at this point, so any assault force will greatly reduce their defensive force, so Grayson really doesn't have a "Fleet in Being" for Haven to worry about - meaning the chances of them throwing a massive wave at Grayson to knock them out is much more likely.


The other concept I mentioned was "Defense in Depth." That was what the Manticorian alliance was all about - Manticore didn't need anyone in the alliance but Erewhon (to keep their wormhole from being used by the Peeps), the rest were a military drain on Manticore's forces, but defending those worlds kept Haven at a distance, and created many bases where an attack could come from, forcing Haven to disperse their forces as well into smaller commands that could individually hold off mild attacks, as well as create points where secure resupply and repair could happen.

Grayson would have none of this. One place to attack, one place to lose. Yes, they could concentrate their defensive forces in one place, but any attack would diminish their ability to survive.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Relax   » Fri Apr 28, 2023 5:14 pm

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Hey Reflame: Welcome

Reason Grayson did not leave Alliance: They had no choice is the bottom line and has NOTHING to do with capital ships(though it does indirectly). Q: Why?

A mere 10 years previously they were the dregs of the universe. Manticore came with; yes, military aid against Endicott, but the REAL reason they joined the alliance is written back in HotQ. Civilian infrastrucutre modernization.

#1, They are starving... Yes, starving, they are a planet on rations. You might want to peruse some REAL history. Read up on WHY the Manchu conquered China creating the Qing dynasty.. they were starving due to climate change, same time in history Europe was going through yet another bout of the black death and in open warfare on all fronts. If that is not enough of a historical precedent lets look at "recent" history; the REAL reasons for why the Germans, Japanese started WWI, AND WWII and WHY there is just as much GERMAN ancestry in the United States as ancestry from the UK... They were a half step from STARVING as they were importing 30% of their food!!! Same goes for the Italians by the way. Same reason the USA was FILTHY rich even though the USA at the time was a fledgling backwater barely out of the stone age itself and owned the vast majority of the worlds GOLD... yes GOLD by WWII... USA was exporting vast quantities of FOOD to Europe, ALL of Europe by the way.

#2, Grayson's civilian technology base is WAAAAAYYYY behind with ZERO relevant industries able to export to ANYWHERE enabling them to import new technologies ans stay relevant in the universe.

#3 Political: Yes, Manticore did them dirty, but they are a ~semi known problem, but also a solution to Endicott, Haven Interstellar problem. Lets assume they leave the alliance(assuming they actually have enough industry to build ALL aspects of their military hardware... I call complete 100% BS on this as it has only been ~10 years and there is no way in this universe they have everything yet)... What aspect of Haven foreign policy allows them to have ANY certainty regarding Haven's intentions regarding them other than they KNOW, from historical precedent that Haven is MORE than willing to stir Endicott up and Haven is completely corrupt or was where they are willing to work with GENOCIDAL(Endicott) people for geopolitical ends.

#4 If they stay, while ones EGO takes a hit short term, one also has a HAMMER to use to obtain concessions when Manticore decides to reach out in need and eat CROW, a whole murder of CROW. Remember, Grayson needs EVERYTHING modern. Everything. They were the equivalent of Angola or Phillipines in today's reality, large poputlaions... half a step from starving, zero modern industry...
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Apr 28, 2023 11:29 pm

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Relax wrote:#1, They are starving... Yes, starving, they are a planet on rations.


What? Where did you get that from?

Grayson is indeed a planet full of heavy metals that makes farming on-planet expensive, but not impossible. Reclaiming soil by decontamination had been done for generations, centuries. More importantly, they had space-based agriculture, and this we know for sure.

I think you're reading too much into the fact that the on-world agriculture was limited. For all we know, they had more than sufficient off-world production. It's perfectly possible to feed a planet with only space-based hydroponics. Heck, with cheap counter-grav, you can even lift soil up from the gravity well after decontamination, and it won't get recontaminated.

The technology they were using prior to the Alliance may have been backwards, but they had them and is probably far ahead of what we have today.

#2, Grayson's civilian technology base is WAAAAAYYYY behind with ZERO relevant industries able to export to ANYWHERE enabling them to import new technologies ans stay relevant in the universe.


Industry, I agree. It's only been 10 years since the major leap forward in technology, and most of it may have been military, based on war-time taxation. Civilians would not have had as many opportunities.

But the technology level itself shouldn't be too far behind.

And yet, these two points combined with the lack of a merchant marine probably make Theemile's point: the GSN had little fleet train support.

#3 Political: Yes, Manticore did them dirty, but they are a ~semi known problem, but also a solution to Endicott, Haven Interstellar problem. Lets assume they leave the alliance(assuming they actually have enough industry to build ALL aspects of their military hardware... I call complete 100% BS on this as it has only been ~10 years and there is no way in this universe they have everything yet)... What aspect of Haven foreign policy allows them to have ANY certainty regarding Haven's intentions regarding them other than they KNOW, from historical precedent that Haven is MORE than willing to stir Endicott up and Haven is completely corrupt or was where they are willing to work with GENOCIDAL(Endicott) people for geopolitical ends.


Add to the political: despite the High Ridge Government's official policy, the Grayson government was back-dooring with Queen Elizabeth herself, via Honor and others. They were slighted by High Ridge, but those twain and others exerted pressure for Grayson to bide their time. Don't forget that in the inter-war period, Honor and White Haven were loudly opposing the High Ridge tools in the Lords (and as an Admiral of the GSN, she was receiving better intel reports than the active RMN officers).

#4 If they stay, while ones EGO takes a hit short term, one also has a HAMMER to use to obtain concessions when Manticore decides to reach out in need and eat CROW, a whole murder of CROW. Remember, Grayson needs EVERYTHING modern. Everything. They were the equivalent of Angola or Phillipines in today's reality, large poputlaions... half a step from starving, zero modern industry...


Again, that was 10 years ago. That situation had definitely changed. They weren't yet at Manticore level (only a few Core worlds in the SL would be), but they had enough of an economy to keep funding the build up that Theemile related above. High Ridge expected Grayson to go bankrupt at any point, but Protector Benjamin knew his finances much better.
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Relax   » Sat Apr 29, 2023 3:38 am

Relax
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Posts: 3106
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:18 pm

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Relax wrote:#1, They are starving... Yes, starving, they are a planet on rations.


What? Where did you get that from?

Grayson is indeed a planet full of heavy metals that makes farming on-planet expensive, but not impossible. Reclaiming soil by decontamination had been done for generations, centuries. More importantly, they had space-based agriculture, and this we know for sure.

I think you're reading too much into the fact that the on-world agriculture was limited. For all we know, they had more than sufficient off-world production. It's perfectly possible to feed a planet with only space-based hydroponics. Heck, with cheap counter-grav, you can even lift soil up from the gravity well after decontamination, and it won't get recontaminated.

Let me quote Honor:
"Or, rather, it wasn’t a habitat for people. She watched the herd of cattle graze across a knee-high meadow on what had to be one of the most expensive “farms” in the explored galaxy,"


Here on planet earth, whoever has the most expensive FOOD, has the poorest people. Poor people do not invent anything as they have no funds to persue their inventions. Worse, those who do have funds are FEW and generally hereditary(unwilling to change status quo) further inhibiting innovation. No innovation = no industry. No industry = no way in Hell did Grayson actually build all those ships or have ability to keep them repaired etc. Did they build most of them? Obviously yes. But the super technical portions? Hell no.

Food grown in greenhouses here on earth are INSANELY expensive. You have to import all of your minerals etc. It only works in desert regions trying to grow vegetables such as Australia where Tomatoes have a hard time growing and maximizing their growth for a plant like the Tomato requires a near constant temperature anyways. Also you might notice the country with the most number of greenhouses(be they dirt cheap plastic ones) is China(Going on ~2million acres) as they will immediately go on rations/are starving if their outside food source gets cut off. PS: Netherlands is a misnomer as their greenhouses are growing only the highest of value of fruits/veg and can contemplate doing so directly feeding all the countries around them who are insanely far north and there is a reason the Europeans were VERY happy to immigrate where they could grow food easily... and both countries are on earth where water/dirt/air is FREE.

You cannot possibly have industry if you are constantly half a step away from starvation and pouring ALL of your $$$ into ultra expensive "habitats" to grow food.

Graysons population was regulated... AKA, starving.

Forget exactly where quote in said book, but Honor Fought not only for the Honor of her Queen, but also because if ANY warship got into the orbital farms and destroyed even a few of them the population would be starving immediately.

regards
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Tally Ho!
Relax
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Relax   » Sat Apr 29, 2023 3:54 am

Relax
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 3106
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:18 pm

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
#4 If they stay, while ones EGO takes a hit short term, one also has a HAMMER to use to obtain concessions when Manticore decides to reach out in need and eat CROW, a whole murder of CROW. Remember, Grayson needs EVERYTHING modern. Everything. They were the equivalent of Angola or Phillipines in today's reality, large poputlaions... half a step from starving, zero modern industry...


Again, that was 10 years ago. That situation had definitely changed. They weren't yet at Manticore level (only a few Core worlds in the SL would be), but they had enough of an economy to keep funding the build up that Theemile related above. High Ridge expected Grayson to go bankrupt at any point, but Protector Benjamin knew his finances much better.


Just; No. Read the Grayson Letters home. Grayson is desperately poor, backwards. This is the equivalent of saying China "raised" 1 Billion out of "poverty" where definition was living on less than $1/day... Of course if you raised "extreme poverty" to $5/day, that 1 Billion shrinks to about ~200Million. Grayson is North Korea/South Korea with Endicott. They do not CARE about living standards, but rather survival. PS: China has been industrializing going on 50 years... and is still dirt poor, where they think a tiny concrete box ~7m^2/person or less living space with NO finished walls, heating/cooling, plumbing, electrical etc is an "improvement" in living standards, not a mere 10 years.

Do remember Grayson is male dominated where 75% of its population are women who do near ZERO infrastructure/engineering(not that women even if given a choice do this work) work on a planet requiring VAST quantities of infrastructure work FAR beyond anything on a normal planet just to survive all before we then throw in the complication of space based "farming"... This aspect alone squeezes the talent pool to industrialize or "man" a military down to such a tiny trickle as to make the whole Grayson industrializing scenario, a joke beyond compare if one actually starts thinking about it from an industrial production viewpoint.

Grayson is Starving, not to death, but in its ability to industrialize.
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Reflame   » Sun Apr 30, 2023 7:36 am

Reflame
Ensign

Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:00 am

Thanks for your insights, Theemile and Relax.

Relax, you use a way of argumentation which would be difficult for me to consider, accept or refute, so I will not answer what you wrote.

Theemile, you raise inspiring arguments and some of them are very convincing. But still: Let's say that I am a mad Grayson commander who convinced the protector. I keep a very vast majority (almost 95%) of my fleet at home at Grayson. I deploy system-defense pods and I run intense drills and simulations how to use and control them efficiently. I want to keep the time between salves as little as possible; I also grab every ship, every device able to control missiles, to increase the number of "control lines" (or how it is called in English). I run these simulations assuming that Haven attacks with some 200 SD and 200 Battleships - how likely is it that they would send more?

And let's say that they do attack. What happens then? I will fire salve after salve. Will they survive long enough to get into firing range?

Or will I run out of ammo before I destroy them? This is related to another question: How many pods am I able to deploy at once and how many in several months? By "at once" I mean before it can be expected that Haven can assemble a huge fleet, make all simulations (training to smooth the rough edges) and reach Grayson.

I have several ideas, both in defense and offense, what I could try as Grayson admiral, but first I would try to estimate:
  1. How many Haven SDs could I repel this way if I had a unlimited number of pods?
  2. How many with my current supply if I don't send any rampagers?
  3. And if I do send them, with enough ammunition ships to make the rampaging efficient enough to make a difference? I don't have to disclose to the enemy that my goal is different than in HH11. In HH11, the goal was to tie (bind) many ships so they could not go to offensive. My goal is to verify how much I can achieve with my long range missiles, i.e. how far am I from dictating the terms of peace from the orbit of Haven.
  4. And how long until I can both send rampagers and defend against 200 SD and 200 battleships?

I will probably wait (unless you prefer me not to :-) ) for your answer before I write my other ideas what Grayson could try to do. I don't know if you enjoy such questions because I understand that I put you in a difficult position, Theemile: I ask rather specific questions where it can be very hard to come up with exact numbers. So of course I expect your anwers to be vague; I am impressed how many details (about numbers and strength of ships etc.) you wrote so specifically (concretely, not vaguely).

And I also think that it is fair to round this vagueness (uncertainty) a bit toward the pessimistic side (i.e. that Grayson could NOT have succeeded with this), because the very fact that in David Weber's story (unlike my story) Grayson did not do it or even consider it, is a reason to justify these pessimistic assumptions.

Theemile wrote:To be honest, 1 squadron can probably stand off ~50 conventional ships in a pitched battle.


Well, does this not mean that Grayson would need only 4 squadrons of modern SDs to repel an attack of 200 SDs against Yeltsin's star? Without system-defense pods. In that case, how many Haven SDs could Grayson probably repel WITH these pods without suffering unacceptable damage to its orbital infrastructure?

Btw. If the orbital infrastructure was dispersed over a far larger space than the range of new Alliance missiles, then one could not use _all_ deployed pods in the actual battle - which is a strong argument toward "Grayson will either be defeated because it will have run out of pods, or (if they keep all pods concentrated near the planed) they will lose all infrastructure which is out of the firing range of the pods" - am I right?

I enjoyed it very much, composing arguments and ideas (strategies) for Grayson (I have not posted all that I came up with...) But this might be the true Achilles heel of Grayson. It would be sad if my ideas failed only because of this...
Last edited by Reflame on Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Reflame   » Sun Apr 30, 2023 7:38 am

Reflame
Ensign

Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:00 am

Theemile wrote:Grayson never took a forward base on it's own, so has a logistical tail all the way running back to Grayson.


I am sorry, I am not a native English speaker; what does this sentence mean? Does it mean that Grayson had no base located nearer to the potential targets of rampaging, and so all support would have to travel the distance all the way from Grayson? And by "pitched battle" you mean "regular battle without tricks and surprises"?

You spoke about "Fleet in Being" - for now, let's assume that Haven is not too worried about what Grayson can do, and therefore it sends very many ships to attack Grayson. Maybe I will try to suggest other strategies later.

And as for "Defense in Depth" - I think (but I may be wrong :-)) that the only relevance of this argument is that Grayson should worry not only about being conquered, but also about being attacked and suffering unacceptable damage to its orbital infrastructure without causing decisive damage to the enemy. So yes - I should take this account when predicting the outcome of such battle. This is why I mentioned above that maybe the pods would have to be too dispersed in order to protect also this infrastructure, and maybe this could be the decisive reason why Grayson could not succeed in what I keep suggesting - I don't know.

I will probably post a question here about my understanding of Strategic Depth, and one about c-fractional attacks against Grayson infrastructure.

Reflame, the mad admiral :-)
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