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"What if" after HH09

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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Reflame   » Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:11 am

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Theemile wrote:Any Alliance forces stationed in Yeltsin's star will also be returning to their home systems once the call is sent, so there will be a period where Yeltsin will have it's defenses drawn down, prior to when the dispersed Grayson forces can return - so the Grayson portion of 8th fleet continuing it's rampage would invite retaliation during a period where Grayson would be overly vulnerable.

Sorry, this makes no sense to me. The order for the ships to return home to Grayson will begin to spread from Grayson as soon as (if not earlier) the Protector sends the note that Grayson continues the hostilites. But even if we hypothetically assume that:
  • Dispatch boats with this order started spreading from Haven at the moment when Haven receives the note
  • Haven immediatelly decided to attack Grayson with a huge fleet (not waiting for rampaging to start)
  • At that moment, this fleet would have been assembled in Haven
  • Returning Grayson ships supposed that they would not be allowed to use the wormhole, and so they would NOT head for the Trevor's star
  • SD's travelled as quickly as dispatch boats
Even under these hypothetical assumptions (which work against Grayson), Havenite SD's could not reach Grayson before all Grayson forces have had time to arrive home. Well, except those located very far from a direct travel path from Haven to Grayson; but it's hard for me to imagine that this factor (favoring Haven) outweights this the five hypothetical assumptions - the fact that they are only hypothetical (they are not true) favors Grayson.

And if Grayson ships need to train together to become an efficient fighting force - they will have time for it because so do the Havenites.

For all these reasons, your statement does not make sense to me, Theemile, and so it is probable that I missed or misunderstood something.
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Reflame   » Sun Apr 30, 2023 8:20 am

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I very surprised that the fleets need to train together for several weeks, for example Havenites before the First Manticore etc. etc. etc. Why don't they do the following?
  1. Only a squadron which has sufficiently trained together (as a squadron) can be sent to the assembly point.
  2. Before they arrive, Tourville and is staff will rehearse with a certain number of officers, each commanding one squadron.
  3. Then they assemble and each squadron receives an officer who has intesively rehearsed various possible variants (that could happen during this operation) with Tourville and other officers.
  4. Therefore each squadron will work as an efficient unit (because only such squadrons were sent) and the squadrons will work together well because the commander of each of them is guided by that officer.

I admit that some rehearsal (training together) would still be needed for such things like maneuvering together in a tight formation (turning their wedges against incoming fire etc. etc.), but wouldn't the time needed to rehearse be greatly reduced? Maybe these things could even be trained in simulators during the hyperspace travel, if the simulators are realistic enough...

Why should this not work? (Again, I suppose I can be wrong :D )
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:17 pm

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Relax wrote:Let me quote Honor:
"Or, rather, it wasn’t a habitat for people. She watched the herd of cattle graze across a knee-high meadow on what had to be one of the most expensive “farms” in the explored galaxy,"


Here on planet earth, whoever has the most expensive FOOD, has the poorest people.


Say what?

I lived in Norway, where food was extremely expensive to buy. I don't think we'd consider Norway a poor country.

I live now in the US, which is the biggest economy on the planet. Food here is not cheap, neither to produce nor to end customers.

In many agriculture-driven economies on this planet, food is cheap, but the agriculture-driven countries are usually the poorest (not all).

I'm not going to accept this argument. I can be wrong and just citing anecdotes when you meant something different, but if that's the case, then please provide some links to researches that corroborate your argument. It may be that the wording is imprecise.

Poor people do not invent anything as they have no funds to persue their inventions. Worse, those who do have funds are FEW and generally hereditary(unwilling to change status quo) further inhibiting innovation. No innovation = no industry. No industry = no way in Hell did Grayson actually build all those ships or have ability to keep them repaired etc. Did they build most of them? Obviously yes. But the super technical portions? Hell no.


That I can agree: poor and usually uneducated people don't aggregate much value because they need to take low-paying jobs and so forth. This argument goes with the other part about Grayson still being rather poor, as in "Letters from Home." I'll address there.

Food grown in greenhouses here on earth are INSANELY expensive. You have to import all of your minerals etc. It only works in desert regions trying to grow vegetables such as Australia where Tomatoes have a hard time growing and maximizing their growth for a plant like the Tomato requires a near constant temperature anyways. Also you might notice the country with the most number of greenhouses(be they dirt cheap plastic ones) is China(Going on ~2million acres) as they will immediately go on rations/are starving if their outside food source gets cut off.


I'm not going to dispute the argument because I don't think it's relevant.

Even assuming that, in absolute costs, food produced in space habitats is expensive, the question is the relative cost. There is no other food source for Grayson. So it's neither cheap nor expensive: it just is the real cost.

I also think it would be misleading to measure how much of their GDP they had needed to spend on food production. Until the Manticore investments, they were a backwards system with little else for industry, so spending a large fraction of that GDP in food production isn't necessarily good or bad. The question is what's the case now.

and both countries are on earth where water/dirt/air is FREE.


That's again a very planet-centric view (admittedly, it's the only one we have). But in a space-based economy, you may mine water from nearby ice comets, breaking it down with hydrolysis to produce oxygen, and mine asteroids for minerals. If it is cheap to lift them from the ground with counter-grav, then you do so, otherwise just get them from space.

And we should agree that a thriving, modern economy in the HV will have lots of space-based industries. That's where the biggest added-value heavy industry should be (Manticore is also rich because of its service sector, which doesn't need to be in space). And if you have to have space-based industry, then having space-based farming isn't so bad either, since you reduce the cost of transportation, in particular up the gravity well. Whether that's cheaper than lifting food produced on the ground where, as you say, water and dirt are free, is unknown and will probably vary.

Moreover, water and dirt may not be free on every planet, not even on Earth in the future. On many planets, they may be of difficult access, and arable land may be very limited. We know of the situation on Grayson, but look also at both Sphinx and Gryphon.

I truly expect that, in real life, we'll find that agriculture in space will be much cheaper that on the ground, to support a thriving space-based economy. There's no hint that cheap counter-grav will ever exist, and there's no hint that there will be as many readily-inhabitable planets as we see in the HV.

However, in the HV, in particular after that quote above on Honor's musings on how it was expensive for Grayson, I have change this position. I might dispute the quote, saying that Honor was not an economist or high-tech farmer, and did not comprehend what she was seeing. We've got more than one instance, especially in the early books, where what we were presented as her musings were not reality, but instead were coloured by her perceptions and interpretations. For an economist, she was a good ship commander.

You cannot possibly have industry if you are constantly half a step away from starvation and pouring ALL of your $$$ into ultra expensive "habitats" to grow food.


I agree with the first part (industry if you're staving) but not on the second.

Forget exactly where quote in said book, but Honor Fought not only for the Honor of her Queen, but also because if ANY warship got into the orbital farms and destroyed even a few of them the population would be starving immediately.


That just means they have little surplus of food. There's such a thing as having reserve capacity, should there be a loss of crop for any reason. But that's entirely different from having a huge excess thereof.

And the Masadans were literally trying to commit genocide. A space farm being compromised as a collateral effect is very different from intentionally destroying a large fraction of them.
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:33 pm

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Relax wrote:Just; No. Read the Grayson Letters home. Grayson is desperately poor, backwards. This is the equivalent of saying China "raised" 1 Billion out of "poverty" where definition was living on less than $1/day... Of course if you raised "extreme poverty" to $5/day, that 1 Billion shrinks to about ~200Million. Grayson is North Korea/South Korea with Endicott. They do not CARE about living standards, but rather survival. PS: China has been industrializing going on 50 years... and is still dirt poor, where they think a tiny concrete box ~7m^2/person or less living space with NO finished walls, heating/cooling, plumbing, electrical etc is an "improvement" in living standards, not a mere 10 years.


And yet China is an economic powerhouse, the second largest economy on this planet, producing anything from cheap low-tech gadgets to high-tech, high-value parts (aircraft engines, silicon manufacturing, etc.). That's not a good example to compare to.

I understand a portion of the Grayson population is still very poor, as both of Joelle Presby's stories tell us. But we don't know how big that portion is, and how many have been lifted out of poverty in the last 15 years. We don't know what standards were applied to measure that either. But also, the other richest countries on Earth have poor populations, with an important portion of the US population living one paycheck away from being unable to buy food. That doesn't make the US poor.

Do remember Grayson is male dominated where 75% of its population are women who do near ZERO infrastructure/engineering(not that women even if given a choice do this work) work on a planet requiring VAST quantities of infrastructure work FAR beyond anything on a normal planet just to survive all before we then throw in the complication of space based "farming"... This aspect alone squeezes the talent pool to industrialize or "man" a military down to such a tiny trickle as to make the whole Grayson industrializing scenario, a joke beyond compare if one actually starts thinking about it from an industrial production viewpoint.


In those same stories, we are told that it's the women that do maintenance work throughout the system. They are actually well-educated, even if not given the best education available and the best positions. And they are an important part of the economy, even if only the informal economy. We won't know for sure unless RFC or at least Joelle Presby come and directly answer this, but I don't see the situation that dire, and it has definitely improved since the Mayhew Restoration and definitely in the last 15 years.

What we do know is that they have been producing ships like no other. And literally like no other because High Ridge stopped Manticore's production. Whether that was fuelled with government debt is not important: only that they had such a high-tech industrial base to produce that many ships per year, including most if not all of the component parts. They did this for half a decade without starving their population.

I said before High Ridge was expecting that Grayson would go bankrupt, but they didn't. We don't know how close they were to that; the conversations between Honor and Protector Benjamin don't go into that level of detail. But I didn't get the feeling from them that the economic collapse was that near the horizon. In fact, the economic success of Grayson was visible all the way to Old Earth, where this Manticore policy was in evidence and Grayson, Idaho and Marsh were being discussed as successes (maybe this discussion wasn't on Earth, but on Darius).

Finally, it had been 15 years since Grayson has been a member of the Alliance in good standing. They also had access to food imports from the other members, if need be. And we know for a fact that interstellar shipping is pretty cheap, even for bulk stuff and even for food (think Montana steaks).

What I might care about is how diversified the Grayson economy is.
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Relax   » Mon May 01, 2023 2:48 am

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Norway is your example? Dirt Poor Norway until they started exports; vast quantities of oil/ng, hydropower, fish?

China who was directly starving itself in massive famine after famine until they started massive exports...

Grayson is a closed system... Backwards industry. They weren't and aren't exporters. Suggest Bolivia, Afghanistan, as an example or Chad.

Supporting an insanely expensive infrastructure where ALL habitats have to essentially be air tight even on "planet"... Do you have ANY idea how expensive this is? All residential and commercial buildings have to be airtight and decontaminated regularly. Everyone when working outside essentially has to wear at minimum full head/body PPE, respirators, face mask = piss poor productivity per capita. The dependency ratio is insane where 75% women + another 10% children =~ 85% of the population isn't doing any of that hard dangerous labor either regarding infrastructure... I was being kind and assuming all old men work the hard labor outside until they die...

Here on earth: The retirement system we see a cliff for the pension/retirement system as we have only ~2-->3 workers per retiree... On Grayson, this is in effect 1 worker per 3 non workers(assuming women at least partially work)... + children... Unless we are going to assume that all women/children essentially work the greenhouses, clothing production on Grayson but are not counted as part of the workforce. Women/children used to do so here on earth in the gardens/home where humanity used to obtain majority of our food/clothing from but due to industrialized Ag do not anymore.

Common man! Economics 101 Grayson is desperately poor and the books say so as well. Why do you say otherwise? Inquiring minds want to know!
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Daryl   » Mon May 01, 2023 7:35 am

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A couple of side points. As an Australian I can point out that water and land often aren't free. Our irrigation water comes at a cost, often from man made reservoirs, while land costs to buy, and you have to factor that capital cost in.
A separate issue concerns the later embargoes on interstellar cargo,in relation to food. If the more industrialised planets were dependent on imported food, it would be difficult to replace. Planted vegetables and cereals will take three months or more to grow, if you have the seeds. Think of a wall around New York, the supermarkets would be empty within a couple of weeks, riots a week or so later, with very little chance of preventing mass starvation. Steve Stirling covers this well in his "Dies the Fire" series..
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Theemile   » Mon May 01, 2023 9:06 am

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Relax wrote:Norway is your example? Dirt Poor Norway until they started exports; vast quantities of oil/ng, hydropower, fish?

China who was directly starving itself in massive famine after famine until they started massive exports...

Grayson is a closed system... Backwards industry. They weren't and aren't exporters. Suggest Bolivia, Afghanistan, as an example or Chad.

Supporting an insanely expensive infrastructure where ALL habitats have to essentially be air tight even on "planet"... Do you have ANY idea how expensive this is? All residential and commercial buildings have to be airtight and decontaminated regularly. Everyone when working outside essentially has to wear at minimum full head/body PPE, respirators, face mask = piss poor productivity per capita. The dependency ratio is insane where 75% women + another 10% children =~ 85% of the population isn't doing any of that hard dangerous labor either regarding infrastructure... I was being kind and assuming all old men work the hard labor outside until they die...

Here on earth: The retirement system we see a cliff for the pension/retirement system as we have only ~2-->3 workers per retiree... On Grayson, this is in effect 1 worker per 3 non workers(assuming women at least partially work)... + children... Unless we are going to assume that all women/children essentially work the greenhouses, clothing production on Grayson but are not counted as part of the workforce. Women/children used to do so here on earth in the gardens/home where humanity used to obtain majority of our food/clothing from but due to industrialized Ag do not anymore.

Common man! Economics 101 Grayson is desperately poor and the books say so as well. Why do you say otherwise? Inquiring minds want to know!


Even if Grayson isn't starving, it is dangerously reliant on a fragile, artificial, overly expensive agricultural system and food imports. If cut off from interplanetary trade, their growing population suffers. If even a single station or dome is struck, parts of the population starve.

Yes, Skydomes is building large domes where massive regions are protected from the elements and can be decommed and farmed - also artificially. It will take years to pay off the domes, and All water will need to be decontaminated before use, and every inch of land will need to be fully fertilized for every crop, (making it more expensive to farm than any space on Earth, even Bolivia). Continued expansion of Skydomes will eventually make Grayson less reliant on the space farms and foreign food sources, but expanded land just makes Grayson more reliant on sources of fertilizer.

So any distortion in trade - any damage to a dome or space farm - will jeopardize the Grayson economy. And I doubt Grayson is willing to risk economic ties to the Manticorian Alliance, or endanger themselves militarily, in pd 1914.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Theemile   » Mon May 01, 2023 9:32 am

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Reflame wrote:
Theemile wrote:Any Alliance forces stationed in Yeltsin's star will also be returning to their home systems once the call is sent, so there will be a period where Yeltsin will have it's defenses drawn down, prior to when the dispersed Grayson forces can return - so the Grayson portion of 8th fleet continuing it's rampage would invite retaliation during a period where Grayson would be overly vulnerable.

Sorry, this makes no sense to me. The order for the ships to return home to Grayson will begin to spread from Grayson as soon as (if not earlier) the Protector sends the note that Grayson continues the hostilites. But even if we hypothetically assume that:
  • Dispatch boats with this order started spreading from Haven at the moment when Haven receives the note
  • Haven immediatelly decided to attack Grayson with a huge fleet (not waiting for rampaging to start)
  • At that moment, this fleet would have been assembled in Haven
  • Returning Grayson ships supposed that they would not be allowed to use the wormhole, and so they would NOT head for the Trevor's star
  • SD's travelled as quickly as dispatch boats
Even under these hypothetical assumptions (which work against Grayson), Havenite SD's could not reach Grayson before all Grayson forces have had time to arrive home. Well, except those located very far from a direct travel path from Haven to Grayson; but it's hard for me to imagine that this factor (favoring Haven) outweights this the five hypothetical assumptions - the fact that they are only hypothetical (they are not true) favors Grayson.

And if Grayson ships need to train together to become an efficient fighting force - they will have time for it because so do the Havenites.

For all these reasons, your statement does not make sense to me, Theemile, and so it is probable that I missed or misunderstood something.


At the end of the war, Manticorian, Talbotian, Erewhonian and Grayson SDs and DN s were spread across the alliance in defensive formations at each member and captured system, as well as the home fleet of each member, and 8th Fleet. Manticore "backfilled" the other SD weilding Power's fleets, they felt comfortable sending more of their SDs to the front and other defensive formations. So Erewhon sent 12 DNs to 8th fleet and probably a few other ships to smaller member's defensive formations. Manticore in return stationed a handful of older, more fragile DNs and SDs in Erewhon to bolster their defenses - and the same happened at Talbot and Grayson.

When the war ended, Manticore's defensive augments left and can home. The dispersed fleets of each of the member nations received orders to return as well.

But consider this
1) The order to return didn't happen on the day of the ceasefire. it took a period of time to consider it safe to stand down and some discussion had to be had amongst the alliance, especially with the assassination of the Grayson and Manticore leadership throwing everything into a tailspin at the last moment.
2) It takes months to send movement orders through hyperspace. Then months for the ship movement to actually happen. The wormholes can shorten this travel - but wormholes are not conveniently placed.
3) the Haven front lines are 3-4 months travel from Grayson.
4) About 30% of the Grayson Fleet is with 8th fleet. Other ships may be helping guard Grendlesbane or Hancock station.

So there is a period of time, months actually, where Manticore has pulled reinforcements from Yeltsin, but The Grayson fleet is still returning to Yeltsin, where Grayson is overly vulnerable (only 40-50% of it's mobile forces are in home space)

Yes, the timing is poor for Haven to attack an un prepared Grayson, but if your vengeful commander were to continue to push an attack at the moment of the ceasefire, it is possible that Haven could get a fleet back to Yeltsin before the Grayson squadrons from Hancock or Grendlesbane return. That's a roll of the dice that the Protector would need to make in advance of sending the attack order.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Theemile   » Mon May 01, 2023 9:47 am

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Reflame wrote:I very surprised that the fleets need to train together for several weeks, for example Havenites before the First Manticore etc. etc. etc. Why don't they do the following?
  1. Only a squadron which has sufficiently trained together (as a squadron) can be sent to the assembly point.
  2. Before they arrive, Tourville and is staff will rehearse with a certain number of officers, each commanding one squadron.
  3. Then they assemble and each squadron receives an officer who has intesively rehearsed various possible variants (that could happen during this operation) with Tourville and other officers.
  4. Therefore each squadron will work as an efficient unit (because only such squadrons were sent) and the squadrons will work together well because the commander of each of them is guided by that officer.

I admit that some rehearsal (training together) would still be needed for such things like maneuvering together in a tight formation (turning their wedges against incoming fire etc. etc.), but wouldn't the time needed to rehearse be greatly reduced? Maybe these things could even be trained in simulators during the hyperspace travel, if the simulators are realistic enough...

Why should this not work? (Again, I suppose I can be wrong :D )


Remember, the Honorverse is supposed to be Horatio Hornblower "in space". So the story is based on 18th & early 19th century Military operations - but in space. David meticulously designed a situation where technology forced naval ships to have similar limitations to 18th century wet navy ships. So parts of the storyline make more sense than others - and over the course of the series some facets will continue, others will fall off.

In the 18th century, ship formations - and by extension, ship battles - happened extremely close to each other. Signals were sent by semaphore, flag and light, and understanding these messages quickly, how to act on these signals quickly, and how the ships around you were handled, was critical to battle winning tactics.

Today, this isn't as much of an issue - tight ship handling isn't as much as a battle winner in most cases, and modern systems make ships easy to plug into formations and communicate actions, and standard training is all that is needed in most cases.

However, ship and formation workup in the Honorverse is still following the 18th century needs. It's just a quirk of the story, like it or not.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: "What if" after HH09
Post by Theemile   » Mon May 01, 2023 11:08 am

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Reflame wrote:
Theemile wrote:Grayson never took a forward base on it's own, so has a logistical tail all the way running back to Grayson.


I am sorry, I am not a native English speaker; what does this sentence mean? Does it mean that Grayson had no base located nearer to the potential targets of rampaging, and so all support would have to travel the distance all the way from Grayson? And by "pitched battle" you mean "regular battle without tricks and surprises"?
Correct, Grayson took no planets or fleet bases on it's own and claimed them, so they would have no close base infrastructure to launch their attacks from. in addition, they the never been observed with their own fleet train at this time, so probably don't have a full collection of their own ammo ships, repair ships, hospital ships, troop ships, spares freighters, tankers, etc required to support long term fleet actions - most likely the Grayson forces attached to 8th fleet only have sufficient supplies for 2-3 midling strikes at best, once they are separated from the rest of 8th Fleet.


You spoke about "Fleet in Being" - for now, let's assume that Haven is not too worried about what Grayson can do, and therefore it sends very many ships to attack Grayson. Maybe I will try to suggest other strategies later.

That was my point, Haven would have no fear of a Grayson "Fleet in Being" because it didn't exist at this point. A Fleet in Being is the ability to stack a hidden 2nd overwhelming force without an opponent knowing, and Haven would easily be able to put together conventional fleets that could overwhelm the relatively small Grayson home fleet, while having protective fleets large enough to (theoretically) fend off a small Grayson raiding fleet. Remember, Haven was massing it's defensive fleets as if they still had a chance against the 50+ SD (p)s and 18 CLACs in 8th fleet. They are not going to worry about 20 SD(p)s and 3-5 CLACs protecting Grayson


And as for "Defense in Depth" - I think (but I may be wrong :-)) that the only relevance of this argument is that Grayson should worry not only about being conquered, but also about being attacked and suffering unacceptable damage to its orbital infrastructure without causing decisive damage to the enemy. So yes - I should take this account when predicting the outcome of such battle. This is why I mentioned above that maybe the pods would have to be too dispersed in order to protect also this infrastructure, and maybe this could be the decisive reason why Grayson could not succeed in what I keep suggesting - I don't know.

"Defense in Depth" is having multiple outposts in the line between your opponent and your self. Strategic thinking at the time was you needed to remove these defensive barriers one by one to protect your supply route and line of retreat. In addition, defense in depth suggests that even if you punch out a capital, there are still dangerous forces which can continue to conduct war against your empire.

Strategically, Defense in Depth would be having multiple star systems that are part of your nation, destroying the capital, just pisses off the rest of the nation. It is redundancy, both in command structure, population, industry, and physical defenses. Tactically it would be layers of defense inside a system.


I will probably post a question here about my understanding of Strategic Depth, and one about c-fractional attacks against Grayson infrastructure.

Strategic depth means your opponent needs to (or thinks he needs to) fight just to get to your critical systems, and you have multiple critical systems. If the opponent is already in your system, you have no strategic depth, or he has skirted your strategic defenses.


Reflame, the mad admiral :-)
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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