Honor awakened a sleeping GIANT

The solution is to give the giant a weight loss program, say The League of Independent Systems. Grayson is the obvious leader here. Beowulf is another. Join us. No tariffs. Reduced charges on wormhole transits. No SLN taxes. No SLN bureaucrats. Target inner systems, not just those further out.

The Solarian League isn't a singular monolithic giant. It's more like a village of them and 499 of them have more reason to be wary of and pissed off with the one named Sol than they do with Manticore.

The SLN's worst missteps, Cachalot, Hypatia and Beowulf, proved beyond a doubt that an unrestained, unchecked Sol is the more dangerous entity. Indeed, Hypatia demonstrated that the RMN is willing to defend bystanders from the SLN!

Coupled with Kingsford's intention to establish a battlecruiser-max navy, that means any serious weight of self-defense will be raised locally by the various system defense forces(whether they existed before Sol's episode of madness or not). They will be raised with as much of an eye on the federal government as upon anyone else.

The Solarian League's collective naval forces may well recover first place, but I suspect the standing federal navy will be more of a long-range coastguard for a while, barred from accumulating significant waller strength unless there is an actual tangible need for them.

Originally, that need was for something to keep a lid on the old grudges between systems within League space. I suppose there may be a few Grayson-Masada(or Beowulf-Mesa!) analogs scattered around offscreen. I think those are more likely to create problems for each other. They don't give a hoot about something as far away as Manticore or Haven.

munroburton wrote:The Solarian League isn't a singular monolithic giant. It's more like a village of them and 499 of them have more reason to be wary of and pissed off with the one named Sol than they do with Manticore.

I certainly agree, which is why I said that their latent anger could be directed at the League. The latent anger of those polities who split from the League, that is. It might not be too far fetched to assume which narrative is playing in the minds of those who remain.

But what about the anger of the part of the League which stayed together? Is it reasonable to expect that the conquered would not, could not, feel anything other than bitter resentment at being attacked AND conquered?

The brunt of the population will continue to resent Manticore until that resentment can be directed at the proper place. And that will never happen until this hidden entity of whom Manticore claim exist is uncovered. And, of course, when that truth is properly shared with the Galaxy.*

*Who is to say - if the Ghosthunters ever find this, at best, dubious evidence of the MAlign - that the truth and nothing but the truth will be shared with the people? Who is to say that the MA does not have more spies within the League who can still shape the narrative. Spies and influencers who are naturally conditioned and won't suddenly drop dead when questions are asked. Like our resident Audrey O'hanrahan. Spies who will make sure that the evidence which is discovered will never come to light. Spies who will make sure that the Ghosthunters simultaneously witness their own death. The death of the Ghosthunters could join the enigma that is the MAlign. Resentment against Manticore will continue in face of the Ghosthunters death.

Remember, these are the same jaded morons who were vehemently protesting and screaming "Murderers, butchers, traitors ..." outside of the Manticoran embassy.

munroburton wrote:The SLN's worst missteps, Cachalot, Hypatia and Beowulf, proved beyond a doubt that an unrestained, unchecked Sol is the more dangerous entity.

That is what they should have taken away from it, as we as readers do, but do the two sentiments match? What a MAlign narrative could easily shape is that Hypatia, Beowulf and Cachalot showed that they need protection from an unchecked enemy, whether that enemy hails from within or without. What can definitely be fingered and argued is the destruction of infrastructure by a rogue element. Now, that is something that is real and tangible that those people who have the power of the vote can wrap their collective hearts and minds around. Protection from ANY rogue element is what is needed.

munroburton wrote:Indeed, Hypatia demonstrated that the RMN is willing to defend bystanders from the SLN!

But did it? Warped minds have an easy habit of adopting the wrong narrative. What it might have shown is that the neobarbs attacked the League, manufactured a ruse about a hidden enemy and were simply cozying up to what will be these splintered states as a prelude to courting them. It was a blatant plan that was conceived by Manticore all along. It is a half-truth, and half-truths have fueled many epic wars.

munroburton wrote:Coupled with Kingsford's intention to establish a battlecruiser-max navy, that means any serious weight of self-defense will be raised locally by the various system defense forces(whether they existed before Sol's episode of madness or not). They will be raised with as much of an eye on the federal government as upon anyone else.

That is an interesting opinion. It will be good reading to see how the author plays that out. One thing the war with Manticore did show the SL is that their Navy is as good as useless against other navies. Second best is not good enough.

But this eye on the Federal Government is a good thing. The new League Constitution having real checks and balances will be a good thing. Having a sense of safety and comfort is a good thing and having a worthy Navy is essential to that feeling of comfort. Only worthwhile designs will be considered. A drive to have comparable designs and technology will be funded.

munroburton wrote:The Solarian League's collective naval forces may well recover first place, but I suspect the standing federal navy will be more of a long-range coastguard for a while, barred from accumulating significant waller strength unless there is an actual tangible need for them.

They will recover. It is as inexorable as water running downhill. And they will recover much quicker than "poof."

Again, the SLN will become the most powerful Navy before it created an OFS or FF. They will come to rely on a huge Navy as a deterrent once again.

No OFS. No FF. No graft. No corruption. Focused. Streamlined, lean and mean. The SLN 2.0.

But. Navies are not a deterrent. Fear is the true deterrent. The SLN must first show their new dominance before they will once again be feared. There will be a few battles with the GA.

War is a mangy mutt who will never be inoculated. Politics is the owner of the mutt, and saddled him with a useless leash.

munroburton wrote:Originally, that need was for something to keep a lid on the old grudges between systems within League space. I suppose there may be a few Grayson-Masada(or Beowulf-Mesa!) analogs scattered around offscreen. I think those are more likely to create problems for each other. They don't give a hoot about something as far away as Manticore or Haven.

Absolutely, and those grudges were never equitably solved. In fact, they were probably allowed to foment and ferment with the League's meddling and playing favorites.

PS 499 of them is hardly a drop in the ocean.

kzt wrote:Yes. The SLN can outbuild everyone if they decide to. It will take about as long to construct 50 SLN shipyards as it does for the RMN to build their new shipyard. Ship design is more complex, but they can build dozens of new designs and see what works.

This post reminds me so much of the weight that was put on Halsey's shoulder when they sent him home to Pearl in the aftermath of the bombing. Halsey had a herculean task to perform at Pearl. And he performed that task with aplomb.

Then it makes me think of the amazing build-rates produced by Grayson. (We know where Halsey currently lives. LOL)

I often imagine what the true building potential of the League really is. What is actually possible with the right "Halsey" to take on the job.

What kind of new and unprecedented building strategy could the League develop to more than exceed any previous build-rates. Should all of those shipyards build as a self-contained unit producing ships, or should each specialize?

I question whether the League's build rates has ever hit its stride in all of its long history. Has the League ever built as a consequence of its current survivable, or has the SLN always had the luxury of an entity who is simply providing for the future.

The League has never felt the motivation of its own mortality.

cthia wrote:

kzt wrote:Yes. The SLN can outbuild everyone if they decide to. It will take about as long to construct 50 SLN shipyards as it does for the RMN to build their new shipyard. Ship design is more complex, but they can build dozens of new designs and see what works.

This post reminds me so much of the weight that was put on Halsey's shoulder when they sent him home to Pearl in the aftermath of the bombing. Halsey had a herculean task to perform at Pearl. And he performed that task with aplomb.

Then it makes me think of the amazing build-rates produced by Grayson. (We know where Halsey currently lives. LOL)

I often imagine what the true building potential of the League really is. What is actually possible with the right "Halsey" to take on the job.

What kind of new and unprecedented building strategy could the League develop to more than exceed any previous build-rates. Should all of those shipyards build as a self-contained unit producing ships, or should each specialize?

I question whether the League's build rates has ever hit its stride in all of its long history. Has the League ever built as a consequence of its current survivable, or has the SLN always had the luxury of an entity who is simply providing for the future.

The League has never felt the motivation of its own mortality.

The league at large has also never had to pay for it's security - 350 years of peace has made the members... lax. Selling massive fleets to politicians while the GA rep is at the door with a box of Montana steaks and Andermani Imperial Reserve Brandy (and a Grayson lizard silk scarf for the wife) - let alone with a primo trade deal/peace proposal - is a hard sell.

Theemile wrote:The league at large has also never had to pay for it's security - 350 years of peace has made the members... lax. Selling massive fleets to politicians while the GA rep is at the door with a box of Montana steaks and Andermani Imperial Reserve Brandy (and a Grayson lizard silk scarf for the wife) - let alone with a primo trade deal/peace proposal - is a hard sell.

It very well might be a hard sell, but is it recommended? Courting these splintered systems might be legal and above board, but let's face it. Even though these are no longer SL polities, won't the League always feel as if the GA is literally expanding into the League's own back yard, on the "verge" of the very Solarian League, as it were?

Will the SL not try to win back the systems that it lost? Systems that had been a part of it for so long? Didn't even Haven try to "liberate" systems they had lost to the RMN?

It would be ironic if the MA manufactured an Instigation Campaign Part 2 to pit the SLN 2.0 against the GA. A perfect opportunity would be when both of them come face to face with each other in a system which formerly belonged to the SL. This resentment, same as the resentment that once dominated the hearts of the Andermani, can be used once more as a catalyst for war.

This time the MA can launch on GA ships from stealth, pretending to be the SL. This time, in the face of an overwhelming Alpha launch, the GA is the one who overreacts and responds with an equal and opposite launch.

Voila, instant war. Again.


That ruse mimics what the cloaked, prototype, rogue Klingon Bird of Prey did to instigate war between the Federation and the Klingons in the Undiscovered Country.

A Spider may elect to launch from close enough to an SLN fleet to make it appear to be culpable in the heat of inevitable battle. And if the GA CO on the spot is an idiot whose brain matches Byng's ...

cthia wrote:But what about the anger of the part of the League which stayed together? Is it reasonable to expect that the conquered would not, could not, feel anything other than bitter resentment at being attacked AND conquered?

The brunt of the population will continue to resent Manticore until that resentment can be directed at the proper place. And that will never happen until this hidden entity of whom Manticore claim exist is uncovered. And, of course, when that truth is properly shared with the Galaxy.*

Who's been conquered? Last I checked, the GA conquered no one; at best, they occupied the Sol System for a while, but left before the new Constitution was ratified.

The vast majority of the population felt almost nothing from the war. It was practically over by the time any economic effects of Lacoön had reached them. The courier boats calling for members to send delegates to Sol to participate in the Constitutional Assembly would carry such news.

The members most affected by the slowdown in interstellar trade are also the ones that would have most received news about the war and Manticore did send out its own propaganda / news too. They very clearly called out the Mandarins, they made public the results of those worthies' actions. So the court of public opinion would be divided in all those worlds.

That leaves two big blocks of people remaining in the SL would would feel resentment: the population of Sol and the SLN personnel. The latter is what Kingsford was attempting to fix, with the slave-traffic-hunting work. And the SLN personnel who deserve to be retained should rationally realise that they were given an impossible task by those unelected & corrupt officials -- we saw that Adm. Jane Isotalo clearly thought so, during the Battle of the Ajay-Prime Warp Bridge. As for the population of Sol, it'll depend a lot on just how much hardship the destruction of the space-borne military infrastructure caused to the population in general and what upside the new Constitution will bring.

Of course, human population being what it is, we can't count on reason ruling over emotion.

*Who is to say - if the Ghosthunters ever find this, at best, dubious evidence of the MAlign - that the truth and nothing but the truth will be shared with the people? Who is to say that the MA does not have more spies within the League who can still shape the narrative. Spies and influencers who are naturally conditioned and won't suddenly drop dead when questions are asked. Like our resident Audrey O'hanrahan. Spies who will make sure that the evidence which is discovered will never come to light. Spies who will make sure that the Ghosthunters simultaneously witness their own death. The death of the Ghosthunters could join the enigma that is the MAlign. Resentment against Manticore will continue in face of the Ghosthunters death.

Of course they have spies. How much those spies will be able to do with a very long control loop to Darius and how much they can afford to do now that the MAlign is supposed to be no more is a question we can't answer now.

But we're post-TEiF now: Galton was found. There's no denying that (except maybe for those who also still believe the Earth is flat). There's absolutely no way that an entire military-industrial system with technology better than the SLN can be swept under the rug. The fact that it is not the really last redoubt of the MAlign is not the point: it was made to look like it was. And therefore, the Alignment was proven to exist. All the (benign) Alignment members on Mesa will confirm it too.

We don't know exactly how the next phase of the Detweiler Plan will unfold or how soon. The most likely scenario is that it's not very short term, which means all those spies will not be doing too much to shape the public opinion away from the existence and evil of the MAlign found at Galton -- they may actually reinforce that in a bid to claim the danger is over.

So again, rationally the average Solarian should conclude that it was the Alignment and their corrupt Mandarin puppets to blame.

But...

Remember, these are the same jaded morons who were vehemently protesting and screaming "Murderers, butchers, traitors ..." outside of the Manticoran embassy.

Yeah.

There's no question those will exist. But that's not the relevant question. The relevant one is whether they will be a significant portion enough of the population to sway public opinion, whether by quantity or by occupying key positions.

That is what they should have taken away from it, as we as readers do, but do the two sentiments match? What a MAlign narrative could easily shape is that Hypatia, Beowulf and Cachalot showed that they need protection from an unchecked enemy, whether that enemy hails from within or without. What can definitely be fingered and argued is the destruction of infrastructure by a rogue element. Now, that is something that is real and tangible that those people who have the power of the vote can wrap their collective hearts and minds around. Protection from ANY rogue element is what is needed.

That's a valid positioning.

But I'd argue any system where that position becomes the relevant policy is also a system that will not be wanting to pay for the SLN, since they'd fear that very SLN. Therefore, those are systems likely to claim the right to independence. They'll likely become unaligned too, seeing both the SL and the GA with suspicious eyes.

So long as they don't then use their newly built navy in 20 years to conquer their neighbours, we're fine.

munroburton wrote:Coupled with Kingsford's intention to establish a battlecruiser-max navy, that means any serious weight of self-defense will be raised locally by the various system defense forces(whether they existed before Sol's episode of madness or not). They will be raised with as much of an eye on the federal government as upon anyone else.

cthia wrote:That is an interesting opinion. It will be good reading to see how the author plays that out. One thing the war with Manticore did show the SL is that their Navy is as good as useless against other navies. Second best is not good enough.

Which is why I don't think that the SLN will be battlecruiser-max. Yes, their wall are deathdraps against the GF, but so are every unit against their GF equivalents. In fact, against their lessers in the GF. The SDs are no different.

So the reason for sending the SDs to the breakers now is that the SLN just had too many of them anyway. It wasn't balanced the way a Navy should be. But all units are still needed one way or another, including those. It's not like the need to defend against a rogue suddenly went away, and there are some three dozen navies with a battle squadron. Against those, the SLN Battle Fleet was actually far from useless.

And they will be ordering SD(P)s.

munroburton wrote:The Solarian League's collective naval forces may well recover first place, but I suspect the standing federal navy will be more of a long-range coastguard for a while, barred from accumulating significant waller strength unless there is an actual tangible need for them.

cthia wrote:They will recover. It is as inexorable as water running downhill. And they will recover much quicker than "poof."

Agreed, because ordering ships only when you need them means it's too late. They need to build ships and train personnel on them before there's a need for them.

However, it should be kept in check, for a balanced fleet. No more keeping 80% of your wall of battle in mothballs. The active Battle Fleet was superior in hull numbers to all the other navies in the Galaxy, combined, up until Bolthole started producing wallers like they grew on trees. So even if they had to fight everyone else in the Galaxy and those didn't help the SL by inviting defeat in detail, the active fleet should have been enough (if it wasn't already obsolete). I could understand maybe keeping another 50% of your hull count, maybe even 100%, in mothballs, so you make the victory easier. But 400%? Just who did they think they were fooling with that blatant diversion of public funds to the military-industrial complex?

But. Navies are not a deterrent. Fear is the true deterrent. The SLN must first show their new dominance before they will once again be feared. There will be a few battles with the GA.

Not necessarily. I agree on all but the last sentence. There are other enemies out there, and given that Kingsford will know soon enough, at the same time as the other military leaders of the GA, that the MAlign is not gone, he'll ensure that that's the enemy they should focus on and prepare for.

Also because all the other polities in the Galaxy will now be racing to get their own modern ships with MDMs. So the chance that one of them decides to pick a fight somewhere is pretty good.

There are 2 additional groups that were hurt by the GA - The OFS and the Corrupt portions of the Gendarmes, and the Corrupt Transtellars - these are probably the groups most likely to cause disruptions, as they grew fat off the Verge, and will lose significant investments (and revenue), even if those planets go peacefully - it will be in their best interests (In their minds) to try to continue business as usual or try something to hang on to their deals. The fallout alone might make an interesting book.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:<snip>
Which is why I don't think that the SLN will be battlecruiser-max. Yes, their wall are deathdraps against the GF, but so are every unit against their GF equivalents. In fact, against their lessers in the GF. The SDs are no different.

So the reason for sending the SDs to the breakers now is that the SLN just had too many of them anyway. It wasn't balanced the way a Navy should be. But all units are still needed one way or another, including those. It's not like the need to defend against a rogue suddenly went away, and there are some three dozen navies with a battle squadron. Against those, the SLN Battle Fleet was actually far from useless.

And they will be ordering SD(P)s.

Remember the BF KEPT 150 SDs in service and de-manned the rest. (which would later go to the breakers.) They recognize the importance of SDs, and that their current designs are death traps against other 1st rate navies. Yes, they will build more, new designs - to keep the wolves at bay, they need to, or else other parties who arn't as peacefully minded will build modern SDs or SD(p)s.
Also we have text-ev Kingsford is planning CLACs, so that is another large capital ship above BC that the SLN will be building.

Agreed, because ordering ships only when you need them means it's too late. They need to build ships and train personnel on them before there's a need for them.

However, it should be kept in check, for a balanced fleet. No more keeping 80% of your wall of battle in mothballs. The active Battle Fleet was superior in hull numbers to all the other navies in the Galaxy, combined, up until Bolthole started producing wallers like they grew on trees. So even if they had to fight everyone else in the Galaxy and those didn't help the SL by inviting defeat in detail, the active fleet should have been enough (if it wasn't already obsolete). I could understand maybe keeping another 50% of your hull count, maybe even 100%, in mothballs, so you make the victory easier. But 400%? Just who did they think they were fooling with that blatant diversion of public funds to the military-industrial complex?

Also, any Reserve plan has to have a call up plan with enough manpower to fill the ranks. Maybe a "national guard" with pre-positioned ships and Blue/Gold/Silver crews for rotational manning? (As in - Position 3 ships, man 1 full time with part time rotational crews, then in times of trouble activate the other 2 (Which have a command staff and light maintenance staff?)

Theemile wrote:There are 2 additional groups that were hurt by the GA - The OFS and the Corrupt portions of the Gendarmes, and the Corrupt Transtellars - these are probably the groups most likely to cause disruptions, as they grew fat off the Verge, and will lose significant investments (and revenue), even if those planets go peacefully - it will be in their best interests (In their minds) to try to continue business as usual or try something to hang on to their deals. The fallout alone might make an interesting book.

I am reminded of the fact that technically the French still hold their African empire financially. Why that was allowed to happen is still a conundrum.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:<snip>
Which is why I don't think that the SLN will be battlecruiser-max. Yes, their wall are deathdraps against the GF, but so are every unit against their GF equivalents. In fact, against their lessers in the GF. The SDs are no different.SNIP

And they will be ordering SD(P)s.

Theemile wrote:Remember the BF KEPT 150 SDs in service and de-manned the rest.

Actually, the 150 quote is either wrong or RFC retconned himself later in UH as there were MORE than 150 that got destroyed at SOL a couple chapters later. It is safe to say that all the SLN SD's are unmanned or destroyed.

Relax wrote:

Theemile wrote:Remember the BF KEPT 150 SDs in service and de-manned the rest.

Actually, the 150 quote is either wrong or RFC retconned himself later in UH as there were MORE than 150 that got destroyed at SOL a couple chapters later. It is safe to say that all the SLN SD's are unmanned or destroyed.

They probably didn't get to that phase yet - plans don't just happen overnight.

There still are 5 other BF Fleet bases with active fleets and reserve formation outside the Sol system in the Inner Sphere, not to mention the unreturned fleet of "Raging Justice 2" (the 2nd Blunder). Not saying that plans didn't change, but there are plenty other SDs swimming around to be kept or recycled.