Brigade XO wrote:Part of the challenge is that - at the point where OFS is now horrified that Manticore is in Talbot-the Alignment is about to go batshit crazy as their plans to derail Manticore being there and within reasonable hyperspace cursing time to Mesa.
Monica didn't turn out the way it was expected- which would have put OFS with FF carrying the load- holding the Talbot end of the Lynx terminus of the MWJ.
Haven has Harrington on their doorstep in negotiations but she returns to Manticore in response to Oyster Bay.......at that point, would Haven tried to rush a 2nd try at taking Manticore? My thought is no.....I don't recall if Honor told Prichard much beyond somebody attacked the orbital infrastructure but Haven, at least, knows that Manticore has what they need to defeat Haven in the field just with what Harrington had with her...,if the replenished Home Fleet was not involved in OB and Harrington told Prichard that, I doubt she would have tried to roll the dice one more time and try to attack into what would already be a hornet nest or really angry RMN.
In that same time frame, the SL hasn't yet gotten their soft parts in a vice by having tried to strike at Spindle and lost Carandal's force along with Bing's So other than actually sending "observers" to the MBS to see what happened and offer the dubious assistance of the SL via OFS, SL isn't all that likely to send a massive war fleet to just try and "rescue" the "Manticorian Survivors".
And, yes, the SL and Haven have not yet crossed swords so they probably have a lesser knowledge of Haven's military size and capability than they have of Manticore's
Unless the Alignment pushed, and pushed hard, SL isn't going to make an overt try at Manticore AT THAT TIME.
So The Plan sort of goes back on track.
Yeah, but a thought just occurred to me, which coincides with Jonathan's post about timing. There is no way the MA could have known about and prepared for Honor showing up in Noveau Paris, but if Oyster Bay had been aimed at Haven and its timing coincidentally coincided with Harrington's arrival, it would have definitely become a hornet's nest.
Honor is such a scrupulous enemy, that gal, I admit, but I am unsure if she would have purposely taken any losses if battle broke out, simply because she would be able to understand that that damn Demon Murphy -- and malignant Providence -- made it appear as if Eighth Fleet was responsible and that they had come to show off some shiny new toys.
The RMN could not afford to lose Eighth Fleet, and if Haven had erroneously blamed their OB on Honor and attacked Eighth Fleet, Honor would have had no other recourse but to destroy them. Now imagine if the MA had planned on blaming Manticore anyway. Talk about Providence working on the MA's behalf.