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Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next

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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed May 18, 2022 3:55 pm

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Actually - after say all that - I realized there's one potential risk out there I hadn't considered.

What if pirates or other non-navy actors can get their hands on captured or black market pods of Cataphracts, DDMs, or MDMs? It probably wouldn't be all that hard to make a Wayfarer style freighter conversion podlayer. And even one built around a smaller tramp freighter than could only fit one or 2 pod rails could still potentially provide enough long ranged missile punch to likely overwhelm a 300,000 ton or smaller combatant -- and from beyond its own ERM range.

You already had the system scouting role of DD/CLs becoming riskier because nothing smaller or less well defended than a keyhole equipped BC is likely to survive stumbling alone into even a modest ambush by system defense pods.

But if those smaller ships might face such an ambush from a converted freighter that could push for the end of inexpensive DD/CL patrolling.

OTOH unless at risk of capture a pirate's not going to open up with that level of firepower unless they have reason to think it'll allow them to capture sufficiently valuable cargo and ships to replace all those expensive black market modern missiles. And that'd be a pretty rare event - modern missiles are expensive to fire off in the hundred. So maybe the risk isn't likely enough to deter them yet.
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by phillies   » Wed May 18, 2022 7:18 pm

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As a radically different idea:

Most of the galaxy has not been explored. Extreme deep space exploration units, more like passenger liner facilities for crew since they are going out for several years, that go to a system, drop a couple of planetographic reconnaissance torpedoes, go to the next system, ditto, and the following ship shows up a year later and scoops up the torpedoes for analysis. After all, if you are the Star EMPIRE of Manticore, you want a large number of systems to justify the name, and there may be very valuable systems out there if you can find them. Ship armament can be fairly modest, but best known drives and compensators.

The reconnaissance torpedoes need to be very redundant, pull a very modest number of gees, but need not by hitech in terms of being stealthy. Lots of fuel on board is good.

If the Navy is not interested, perhaps some place that builds passenger liners would be.
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by munroburton   » Wed May 18, 2022 8:18 pm

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I'm not sure they'll be building much in the way of ships for the next decade. Their entire existing Navy will be badly in need of maintenance and, after almost three decades of wartime spending plus all the spending commitments required in Talbott(and perhaps Silesia), the naval budget isn't justifable as long as the alliance with Haven holds.

They've also taken a lot of data from Ganymede to sift through. Much of it may be junk, but there may be gems of inspiration. The F&H brain trust needs time to digest it before launching yet another naval revolution.

The RMN has almost found itself in the position the SLN was in - it has a vested interest in not disrupting the current status quo by introducing some innovation which renders SD(P)s and/or CLACs obsolete. Its straitjacket isn't quite as tight as the SLN's Reserve was, though, because they can still play around with pods and their contents.

Still, completely replacing the ammo for everything - 200 SD(P)s, 50 system defenses and stockpiles... oof.

Jonathan_S wrote:Actually - after say all that - I realized there's one potential risk out there I hadn't considered.

What if pirates or other non-navy actors can get their hands on captured or black market pods of Cataphracts, DDMs, or MDMs? It probably wouldn't be all that hard to make a Wayfarer style freighter conversion podlayer. And even one built around a smaller tramp freighter than could only fit one or 2 pod rails could still potentially provide enough long ranged missile punch to likely overwhelm a 300,000 ton or smaller combatant -- and from beyond its own ERM range.

You already had the system scouting role of DD/CLs becoming riskier because nothing smaller or less well defended than a keyhole equipped BC is likely to survive stumbling alone into even a modest ambush by system defense pods.

But if those smaller ships might face such an ambush from a converted freighter that could push for the end of inexpensive DD/CL patrolling.

OTOH unless at risk of capture a pirate's not going to open up with that level of firepower unless they have reason to think it'll allow them to capture sufficiently valuable cargo and ships to replace all those expensive black market modern missiles. And that'd be a pretty rare event - modern missiles are expensive to fire off in the hundred. So maybe the risk isn't likely enough to deter them yet.


It could happen, the SLN produced enough pods for a few to fall off the back of air lorries here and there. On the other hand, the only pirates we've seen using decent missiles(or ships!) were MAlign-sponsored and with Galton gone, that supplier is limited.

Real pirates don't even want to fire primitive missiles. They avoid warships and prefer intercepts or ambushes where they only reveal themselves when their target freighter is mathematically incapable of evading.

I suspect it's a high-turnover "industry", given how valuable a single loaded freighter is, even at black market rates and with all the expenses and middlemen's cuts. Most who gets into it simply roll the dice until they can cash out - and then do, only returning if they manage to spend everything.

There's a reason navies were happily using ships for up to a hundred years; the Noblesse's entry in HoS says it was "still suited for anti-piracy work" when it was axed. With a few exceptions, pirates have never gotten better, so their hunters don't need to.

Mercenaries and revolutionaries are different kettles of fish. They're smart enough to know if they go after the RMN, they're going to need "better than Hypatia" and that's quite a steep cliff to climb. Leftover Cataphracts won't be enough to do that, although they'll use them against anyone else.
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by Theemile   » Thu May 19, 2022 9:09 am

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munroburton wrote:
It could happen, the SLN produced enough pods for a few to fall off the back of air lorries here and there. On the other hand, the only pirates we've seen using decent missiles(or ships!) were MAlign-sponsored and with Galton gone, that supplier is limited.

Real pirates don't even want to fire primitive missiles. They avoid warships and prefer intercepts or ambushes where they only reveal themselves when their target freighter is mathematically incapable of evading.

I suspect it's a high-turnover "industry", given how valuable a single loaded freighter is, even at black market rates and with all the expenses and middlemen's cuts. Most who gets into it simply roll the dice until they can cash out - and then do, only returning if they manage to spend everything.

There's a reason navies were happily using ships for up to a hundred years; the Noblesse's entry in HoS says it was "still suited for anti-piracy work" when it was axed. With a few exceptions, pirates have never gotten better, so their hunters don't need to.

Mercenaries and revolutionaries are different kettles of fish. They're smart enough to know if they go after the RMN, they're going to need "better than Hypatia" and that's quite a steep cliff to climb. Leftover Cataphracts won't be enough to do that, although they'll use them against anyone else.


I would think that anybody who got their hands on a handful of pods would make more money selling some pods - any pods - to a government or large manufacturing corp then to pirates. Let's face it, the tech in the pods is more valuable than the pods themselves - even an old single drive missile pod has tons of details that would help a government/transstellar reproduce them en mass. And even a poor verge planet can scrape together more than a pirate to buy a set of system defense missiles (which they later would sell off, but hey..)

Closer to 1930pd all bets are off - Pods will be common place in a rainbow of capabilities. But I still think a pirate would rather sell them than fire them. I would be more worried about a warlord building a tramp podlayer to build an empire than pirates.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu May 19, 2022 3:10 pm

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Theemile wrote:Closer to 1930pd all bets are off - Pods will be common place in a rainbow of capabilities. But I still think a pirate would rather sell them than fire them. I would be more worried about a warlord building a tramp podlayer to build an empire than pirates.


Pirates are always very close to being broke. They don't want to spend any missile, much less a hundred of them. There's no way they'd use pods to attack prey anyway, because there's not going to be anything left of that.

At worst, they'd keep those pods for a last-ditch defence in case they are found out by a real warship. But I don't think they would... as you say, they're likely to sell. The first month where they're looking into the face of hunger, they'll start dumping the inventory.
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by drothgery   » Thu May 19, 2022 5:22 pm

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munroburton wrote:I'm not sure they'll be building much in the way of ships for the next decade. Their entire existing Navy will be badly in need of maintenance and, after almost three decades of wartime spending plus all the spending commitments required in Talbott(and perhaps Silesia), the naval budget isn't justifable as long as the alliance with Haven holds.


Well, the wartime budgets aren't justifiable, but the new peacetime baseline is going to be ... quite a bit higher ... then the pre-first war baseline, if only because the Star Empire has a heck of a lot more to defend, and it's much more widely dispersed, than the pre-war Star Kingdom did. Beyond that, they still have a non-trivial amount of older warships still in service and they honestly shouldn't keep any pre-ERM light warships, pre-pod wallers, or pre-DDM/pod BCs, and while they may be scaling back their wall of battle, they're probably going to keep even if not expand their fleet below the wall. And if they're not expanding their wall anymore, they probably want to keep building at least a few every year to maintain capabilities.
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu May 19, 2022 8:13 pm

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drothgery wrote:
Well, the wartime budgets aren't justifiable, but the new peacetime baseline is going to be ... quite a bit higher ... then the pre-first war baseline, if only because the Star Empire has a heck of a lot more to defend, and it's much more widely dispersed, than the pre-war Star Kingdom did. Beyond that, they still have a non-trivial amount of older warships still in service and they honestly shouldn't keep any pre-ERM light warships, pre-pod wallers, or pre-DDM/pod BCs, and while they may be scaling back their wall of battle, they're probably going to keep even if not expand their fleet below the wall. And if they're not expanding their wall anymore, they probably want to keep building at least a few every year to maintain capabilities.

The pre-pod wallers are probably already gone. Most of them were, IIRC, with home fleet and so died in the Battle of Manticore. Any survivors should have been quickly retired as soon as the Python Lump came online.

But I'd go a step further and say the RMN shouldn't keep any SD(P)s that lack Keyhole II. (Though any remaining Keyhole I ships might be worth upgrading to II rather than disposing of. But they're not worth keeping w/o said upgrade)

Otherwise I agree with you -- the remaining legacy ships need to go.
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu May 19, 2022 9:36 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:But I'd go a step further and say the RMN shouldn't keep any SD(P)s that lack Keyhole II. (Though any remaining Keyhole I ships might be worth upgrading to II rather than disposing of. But they're not worth keeping w/o said upgrade)

Otherwise I agree with you -- the remaining legacy ships need to go.


Agreed too, but that brings back the question of what below the wall is worth building for peace-time now.

The Nike-class BC is the baddest BC out there, hands down. But is it too expensive for peace-time? It's maybe too large, so I'd expect a new generation that is half the size, at 1.25 million tonnes, but is capable of firing DDMs (whether Mk16 or a new generation that is smaller) and deploy Keyhole II. While that doesn't come along, the Nikes can be kept in service and the Agamemnons are probably much closer to the expected operating cost range already. In fact, the Agamemnons will probably continue in service until the next war: their problem is not cost, it's that they're fragile.

I'd expect that the Saganami-C are actually on the mark for CA, if not actually short of it. So for CAs I'd expect them to continue to grow, up to 600 thousand tonnes and definitely remain capable of firing DDMs. Those would be the workhorse of nodal defence: set up a couple of squadrons of CAs with a division of BCs and you're set for any conceivable threat for the next decade.

Below that, we've discussed before that the DDs maybe be going the way of the dodo. That is, they are not survivable any more. So I'd expect the CLs to pick up the role of patrols and range from 150 to 250 thousand tonnes. I'd expect F&H R&D to come up with a DDM that will fit this class of ships without the compromises that the Rolands had to make. Hopefully with a retrofit to existing Avalons too.

So this is where I'd put my research on: light cruisers. That's where I think the RMN lacks for peace time. And this is where I'd expect the most unit count to come from. The CLs can be used for long-range patrolling in the Verge and Shell, where the SLN and OFS have pulled away from. They can be used for extended commerce protection, going a long time between friendly ports. And they're not so big that they'd intimidate wavering nations by their presence. They can also be used to deep scouting where the MAlign might be hidden. At a minimum, their widespread presence might disrupt lines of communication.

After that, I'd go back to preparing for a threat that matches the RMN's current wall of battle itself. We know they can fight someone with SD(P)s, CLACs and MDMs -- that's what the RHN was, just on a lower technology rung. So what do they do to improve their odds?
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by cthia   » Fri May 20, 2022 12:03 am

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Jonathan_S wrote:they see major war with the MAlign as imminent they'll probably continue to prioritize SD(P)s and CLACs over lighter ships. (And possibly come out with a 3rd gen SD(P) design based on lessons learned with the Invictus-class compared to the Harrington IIs). But if they see this as an indefinite but probably multi-year pause while they continue to search for clue leading towards the remaining MAlign then they'll probably focus on light combatants for a while.


I certainly agree. I see focusing only on light combatants as a mistake as equally arrogant as High Ridge's build down. And as you implied, especially against the MAlign. When taking on a stealthy enemy, your ships are probably going to take a lot of hits. Inherently, SD(P)s are eggshells.

So would it behoove the RMN to build regular SDs for their natural survivability?

Anyone care to guestimate how many more hits a regular SD can take compared to a pod layer?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Fall 1924: What will the Admiralty build next
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri May 20, 2022 12:15 am

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cthia wrote:I certainly agree. I see focusing only on light combatants as a mistake as equally arrogant as High Ridge's build down. And as you implied, especially against the MAlign. When taking on a stealthy enemy, your ships are probably going to take a lot of hits. Inherently, SD(P)s are eggshells.

So would it behoove the RMN to build regular SDs for their natural survivability?

Anyone care to guestimate how many more hits a regular SD can take compared to a pod layer?


Fewer.

Yes, the SD(P) has a major structural weak point in the form of the pod door. It's also an aspect that is less protected by chase weaponry.

But the RMN building materials are tougher than what used to be used in regular SDs. The SD(P)s are also bigger and more armoured, so they should be able to take more hits.

Could you build an even more armoured ship with fewer weak points than the current crop of SD(P)? Sure. But it would also be a worse combatant, because it's basically a defensive ship. It can't fire as many offensive missiles from its broadsides than a pod-layer can. And if it has to dedicate surface area to anti-ship missile tubes to the same ratio that a regular SD has to, it will also have a worse defence.

Why would you design a ship to take punches but not deliver them? You can't win if you only play defensive.
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