What if McQueen's coup worked?

cthia wrote:I love reading all of the different flavors of logic. Alternate universes are so interesting. It is like going back in time and changing one thing and trying to figure out how the ripple in time will affect the future.

At any rate, I think a lot hinges on McQueen. What kind of an officer would she have been? The question had been asked by the Peeps if she herself had a taste for power. Theisman didn't have a taste for power, and he handed the reigns over to someone else.

I could never get my drones in close enough to read McQueen effectively enough to determine anything except that she was a formidable strategist and tactician. She seemed to be adept at politics as well.

But would she have claimed the reigns for herself? If so, was she bloodthirsty? If she was indeed bloodthirsty, the war at that point might have gone differently. Had the coup worked, Haven would have been stronger at that point. And had McQueen consulted with Theisman, Beatrice may have happened sooner and Eighth Fleet might not have had time to be equipped with Apollo.

Plus, the idea of Miss Smoking Mirrors and Thomas Theisman conspiring together frightens me almost as much as a Foraker/Hemphill combo. And, McQueen is more aggressive by nature than Theisman. She seemed to be born a warmonger.

McQueen was being set up as Haven's Napoleon before the author swerved away from the Hornblower analogy.

I thought that your points were answered on the first page, let me remind you:

Jonathan_S wrote:By that point in the war it's irrelevant how capable she is, how good the Peep navy could be if freed from the oversight of People's Commissioners, or what kind of research or industrial miracles her chosen people might be able to work. There's simply no time for it to matter. Her failed coup was only a week before Manticore unleased the fruits of Project Gram in Operation Buttercup.

Nothing Haven had in December of 1914 could stand up against White Haven's 8th fleet of CLACs and SD(P)s carrying the first MDMs.

She'd probably have still been on Haven trying to reestablish control of the government post coup, and root out the remains of Statesec when 8th fleet begins their unstoppable drive on Haven. And by early March they were ready to strike at Lovat, the final significant system before Haven itself. Just a couple of months isn't enough time to overcome the massive technological advantage that Manticore now enjoyed.

And the only way McQueen could have won would have been to kill Saint-Just and behead State Sec. But with Saint-Just dead there would be no Operation Hassan, Cromarty wouldn't die, his government wouldn't fall, and thus Manticore would have no reason to stop the war for anything short of complete surrender. So I've no doubt that a successful coup would simply mean that McQueen got to preside over the defeat and surrender of Haven.

The point is that Haven needed the respite offered by the ceasefire to develop and implement Shannon Foraker's answers to the LAC forces and the multi-drive missiles. The attack on Lovat could have taken out Giscard, Tourville and Foraker.

cthia wrote:I love reading all of the different flavors of logic. Alternate universes are so interesting. It is like going back in time and changing one thing and trying to figure out how the ripple in time will affect the future.
This has huge ripple effects for sure.
At any rate, I think a lot hinges on McQueen. What kind of an officer would she have been? The question had been asked by the Peeps if she herself had a taste for power. Theisman didn't have a taste for power, and he handed the reigns over to someone else.

I could never get my drones in close enough to read McQueen effectively enough to determine anything except that she was a formidable strategist and tactician. She seemed to be adept at politics as well. I see her preferring combat to politics, honestly, but me too, on the hard to read part..
But would she have claimed the reigns for herself?
There are two options.
1. She does become Head of State. I see this one as less likely than the other.
2. She hands the reins of politics to someone who likes them better (after hanging onto them for long enough to stabilize the government and navy, and get rid of StateSec), and becomes a very senior officer. Maybe like Theisman to Eloise, but minus any relationship to who she puts in charge to the civilian matters. She, as seen in textev below, likes being an Admiral more than Sec of War, which was part civilian.

One way or the other, no one in this room would ever use that stupid, sycophantic "Citizen" crap again, and it felt unspeakably good to put on the persona of an admiral once more instead of wearing the ill-fitting, quasi-civilian mask of secretary of war.

If so, was she bloodthirsty? If she was indeed bloodthirsty, the war at that point might have gone differently. Had the coup worked, Haven would have been stronger at that point. And had McQueen consulted with Theisman, Beatrice may have happened sooner and Eighth Fleet might not have had time to be equipped with Apollo. This could have been where RFC killed Honor. I'm glad Honor lived, but I do miss seeing more of McQueen (reading Nightfall really pushed her into skilled officer league for me, as Hamish has much more ships and if I remember, better hardware for Trevor's Star)

Plus, the idea of Miss Smoking Mirrors and Thomas Theisman conspiring together frightens me almost as much as a Foraker/Hemphill combo. Or Smoking Mirrors & Tourville, which would likely be a more aggressive combo.And, McQueen is more aggressive by nature than Theisman. She seemed to be born a warmonger.Yes.

I could never read her well enough either.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:At any rate, I think a lot hinges on McQueen. What kind of an officer would she have been? The question had been asked by the Peeps if she herself had a taste for power. Theisman didn't have a taste for power, and he handed the reigns over to someone else.

I could never get my drones in close enough to read McQueen effectively enough to determine anything except that she was a formidable strategist and tactician. She seemed to be adept at politics as well.

But would she have claimed the reigns for herself? If so, was she bloodthirsty? If she was indeed bloodthirsty, the war at that point might have gone differently. Had the coup worked, Haven would have been stronger at that point. And had McQueen consulted with Theisman, Beatrice may have happened sooner and Eighth Fleet might not have had time to be equipped with Apollo.

The point is that Haven needed the respite offered by the ceasefire to develop and implement Shannon Foraker's answers to the LAC forces and the multi-drive missiles. The attack on Lovat could have taken out Giscard, Tourville and Foraker.

And there are whole flocks of butterflies flapping that make it basically impossible to guess who'd end up in control of a post-surrender Haven, whether Haven would have the desire and will to build up and avenge their defeat, what capabilities they might have, and how long that would take.

Would Haven have still gone through its multisided civil war if it had had to surrender? (Possibly that would depend on what the surrender terms were. If all the major warships had to be scrapped them it's possible anybody trying to break away would have the RMN show up to repossess or destroy their fleets)

How much of their existing fleet would have been destroyed anyway in the final few battles? Which known officers would be killed?

Would McQueen have remained in power after surrendering to Manticore? Would Manticore have tried to make her removal a condition of the surrender? Would Manticore demand an occupation government to oversee restructuring Haven's government and constitution (as the US did in Germany and Japan after WWII)?

Would the secret of Bolthole even survive whatever post-war inspection committees Manticore might send to dig up Haven's secrets?

Would there be limits on Havens military; and if so what?

Basically so many variables that speculation whether there would have been a second war, much less the timing and technology of it, seems utterly open ended. You could spin almost any story as possible; but nobody here has basis to judge whether it'd be plausible.

Jonathan_S wrote:
Basically so many variables that speculation whether there would have been a second war, much less the timing and technology of it, seems utterly open ended. You could spin almost any story as possible; but nobody here has basis to judge whether it'd be plausible.

I'd say David knows, but I suspect he never thought about it. I asked David about Manticore doing a dodge to join up with Beowulf as the PN closes in and he said he never did any consideration of options since he knew what was going to happen.

kzt wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:
Basically so many variables that speculation whether there would have been a second war, much less the timing and technology of it, seems utterly open ended. You could spin almost any story as possible; but nobody here has basis to judge whether it'd be plausible.

I'd say David knows, but I suspect he never thought about it. I asked David about Manticore doing a dodge to join up with Beowulf as the PN closes in and he said he never did any consideration of options since he knew what was going to happen.

That is why I love these alternate universe discussions so much. They are perpetual neverending discussions.

Try this on for size, if Haven would have lost a lot of systems, the MA may have been given a surprise birthday present.

"Hey, we can pick the bones of the Haven system to join our cause, instead of our original intention of feeding off the carcass of the dying Sol System." Providence.

Jonathan_S wrote:And there are whole flocks of butterflies flapping that make it basically impossible to guess who'd end up in control of a post-surrender Haven, whether Haven would have the desire and will to build up and avenge their defeat, what capabilities they might have, and how long that would take.

And with Honor not being senior enough at this time to sit on strategy sessions with the Queen, Cabinet, and Admiralty, there's no Harrington Doctrine for Haven. I do suspect someone would have dusted up the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after WW2 and what happened to Japan, though. But it might have been too late for the damage done.

Would Haven have still gone through its multisided civil war if it had had to surrender? (Possibly that would depend on what the surrender terms were. If all the major warships had to be scrapped them it's possible anybody trying to break away would have the RMN show up to repossess or destroy their fleets)

I don't see how that could happen. First, civil wars happen when existing fractures show up once the common enemy is removed from the picture... but the common enemy would still be in that picture. Those hold-outs would be likely trying to fight the Alliance, not fellow ex-PN forces. Second, because the Alliance as conquerors would be patrolling and quashing resistance to its dominance in the entire Haven territory. This is especially true of any military assets. The Alliance would have wanted to disarm most of the Haven systems.

How much of their existing fleet would have been destroyed anyway in the final few battles? Which known officers would be killed?

I suspect that after the first few showings, McQueen would have realised the pointlessness of it. She may have been ruthless and ambitious, but she also appeared to really care for the Navy. I don't think she would have ordered spacers to their deaths in battles they couldn't win. White Haven would have done what Honor did in the Battle of Sol: order the crews to surrender their ships, evacuate, then scuttle those ships. He may even have done to the Haven system industry what she did to Sol's... but I think not, because unlike Sol, Haven would have no League to draw upon. The cost of reconstruction would be borne by the Alliance.

Would McQueen have remained in power after surrendering to Manticore? Would Manticore have tried to make her removal a condition of the surrender? Would Manticore demand an occupation government to oversee restructuring Haven's government and constitution (as the US did in Germany and Japan after WWII)?

I doubt anyone in any previous government of Haven would be allowed anywhere near the new occupation government for a decade. And McQueen herself was not only a former member of the Committee, she had also launched a coup and would have been ruling as a dictator by the time White Haven arrived. The Alliance would have no business with her.

If Pritchard and Theisman had survived until this point, they may even actually help rebuild. Theisman, drawing upon his previous encounters with Honor, might get to talk the occupiers into resurrecting the Péricard Constitution ("remember when Haven and Manticore were friends and allies?") and gotten Pritchard to turn politician and drive those reforms home.

Would the secret of Bolthole even survive whatever post-war inspection committees Manticore might send to dig up Haven's secrets?

I don't know, but without outside help, Bolthole at this stage dies on the vine. It has industry, but not the educated population to run it without imports from the rest of the Republic. So if it does get deleted from al the databases, once the reforms do begin to make headway, Theisman might reveal it (he was CO of Capital Fleet, he probably knew about it).

Would there be limits on Havens military; and if so what?

Probably. I suspect the Republic would be broken up into individual governments as they used to be before the 1840s, so each system individually would pose little threat. Each system would also be lacking for funding for a large military. Haven itself and some of the wealthier systems, once the reforms take place, might want to rebuild some of it. But if they take a page from Germany and Japan reconstruction after WW2, those systems would be limited to and would choose to limit themselves to defence forces only.

At least until some outside force changed the circumstances.

Theemile wrote:1) I'd say Lynx is still found, just 12-24 months later due to the lack of "urgency" and funding, so the rest of the timeline is pushed forward that amount of time.

2) the Silesia issue is never solved. The Havenite attack in Silesia in Thunderbolt is what brought the Andermani and Manticore to the table with "The Silesian Solution". The Andermani and Manticore are still "Frenemies".

If Lynx is found 12-24 months later, then the construction of the LDs is also closer to completion when that happens. So it's possible Oyster Bay is never launched with prototype ships, but awaits the LDs.

But possibly not, because the LDs won't be ready before 1925 and we're talking about Lynx in 1919 instead of 1917. More importantly, if this is 12-24 months later but research never stopped, then the RMN capabilities are actually 36-48 months ahead of what they would otherwise be. The Alignment would still make the same mistake it did in underestimating the RMN capabilities and overestimating the SLN, but it would be even more lopsided than it actually was.

Your second point, though... that's an opening for the Alignment. Because in this scenario, the Alliance is patrolling the former PRH and never shrunk in size. It's actually even stronger. Many systems in the PRH might have petitioned to join the SKM like Trevor's Star did and now with the Lynx terminus open, another two dozen systems do. The Andermani might look at this and wonder if they didn't jump from the frying pan of an expansionist Haven to the fire of an expansionist and closer Manticore.

It hinges on two things I can see: first, what was the understanding between Cromarty and the Andies before the war? What would Cromarty do now to ensure the Andies don't become a threat and keep them as actual allies? Second, the Hofschulte incident would have happened, so when Manticore people start exhibiting the same problem, the Andies might realise there's a third-party at play.