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Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?

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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:05 am

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
jaydub69 wrote:Another possibility is maybe Eric Flint wrote a lot more of this book than we think and that's why the battle sequences/astrogation details seem a little off from DW's usual detail.


That's what seems to me the most likely. The whole battle doesn't feel like DWs writing to me. Not enough attention to detail, many things that don't fit with what we already know.


As cthia said, this doesn't seem likely. Or, if Eric wrote it, DW certainly must have reviewed it thoroughly, so we can't pin the blame on Eric alone. Not that I was inclined to do so any way.

My problem is less about the specifics of the battle, though there are two big problems with it. It's more of the fact that it happened at all. It's the fact that Galton was introduced and removed from the board in a single book, without majorly advancing the plot for finding the Alignment. We could argue it makes finding more difficult now, but that's also the opposite of what we've been thinking the direction of the series should be.
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by cthia   » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:19 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
jaydub69 wrote:Another possibility is maybe Eric Flint wrote a lot more of this book than we think and that's why the battle sequences/astrogation details seem a little off from DW's usual detail.


That's what seems to me the most likely. The whole battle doesn't feel like DWs writing to me. Not enough attention to detail, many things that don't fit with what we already know.


ThinksMarkedly wrote:As cthia said, this doesn't seem likely. Or, if Eric wrote it, DW certainly must have reviewed it thoroughly, so we can't pin the blame on Eric alone. Not that I was inclined to do so any way.

My problem is less about the specifics of the battle, though there are two big problems with it. It's more of the fact that it happened at all. It's the fact that Galton was introduced and removed from the board in a single book, without majorly advancing the plot for finding the Alignment. We could argue it makes finding more difficult now, but that's also the opposite of what we've been thinking the direction of the series should be.

First, I owe DW an apology. There were two battle scenes, counting the one on the ground led by Saburo X. Now, that one could have been written by Eric Flint.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by cthia   » Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:09 pm

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munroburton wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:They did anticipate the stealth missiles and stop most of them.


That's the proof in the pudding isn't it? Grand Fleet lost about 20 capital ships in order to take the only star system fortified more heavily than Manticore's own Binary System. What's more, only one-third of those losses were actually to stealth weapons; the other two-thirds died because they advanced into close range of conventional missiles disguised as civilian cargo.

The GA's losses at Galton only seems "bad" because they've been walking all over the SLN with relative impunity for two years. If you go back to the wars between Haven and Manticore, it's barely a drop in the bucket. EG: White Haven lost about ten wallers in a minor engagement in 1906 which he retreated from. Amos Parnell lost over forty wallers in a major engagement which he also retreated from. Lester Tourville lost nineteen capital ships retreating from Sidemore. Between them, both sides lost around four hundred capital ships at First Manticore.

The static deployment beyond the hyper limit did exactly what it was meant to; it forced the Alignment to throw away its stealth advantages and come into a zone dominated by GA forces, utterly saturated by recon drones with FTL communications. Sun Tzu would be very proud.

We've already seen what happens when someone charges across the hyper limit into a fortified system. Tourville got his ass kicked and Filareta screwed himself so thoroughly he was going to surrender without firing a shot.

That leaves dancing outside the hyper limit and aggressive maneuvering would only create interception/ambush opportunities for the Alignment. As many recon drones as the GA can deploy, the numbers required start growing exponentially when they have to cover an expanding cone ahead of their fleet's base course. It's one of the reasons they moved so slowly into Galton orbit.

Or the final option is the one advocated by Captain Jaruwalski: a massive salvo launched as soon as they were out of hyper. This was ruled out because the GA refused to contemplate civilian casualties on the scale they had suffered. Would it have been better to do it that way?

Assuming they had done that and managed to not hit any civilian targets, what happens next? They eventually come in to Galton orbit, at which point those camouflaged Cataphracts potentially come into play anyway, unless Galton's command structure is so eviscerated that nobody is left to order it.

We know that final strike killed more ships than the first graserhead attack. It's hard to say how it would have worked out if it was the first and only attack Galton made. The GA crews might have reacted more slowly without having endured incoming fire, but they would also have a few more ships providing anti-missile defenses.

If there's a better way to crack a nut like Galton, I don't see it. The same technique should work on Darius if the GA ever finds it. They'll sit out there and force any spiders to sally forth or rot unused in their spider holes as Darius' orbital infrastructure dies to long-range bombardment.

I love this post. Except that the final paragraph may need some rethinking. Sitting or stooging around in the Darius system will be a no no.

NO LOITERING ALLOWED.

The same tactics will be suicide at Darius. Especially since Darius has seen the tactics. Which is another reason Galton was necessary. I think DW is setting the stage for something big.

And if all of the naysayers are right that the Spiders can't possibly have been hatched this soon, then DW is setting the stage for a heaping helping of arachnophobia. It does seem ironic that the very experienced GA seemed to ignore the possibility that they exist. Or, like my spidery naysayers in the forum, Simoes may have given a timeline for their possible completion.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by kzt   » Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:55 pm

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cthia wrote:
And if all of the naysayers are right that the Spiders can't possibly have been hatched this soon, then DW is setting the stage for a heaping helping of arachnophobia. It does seem ironic that the very experienced GA seemed to ignore the possibility that they exist. Or, like my spidery naysayers in the forum, Simoes may have given a timeline for their possible completion.

They exist now. WE know they exist. The appropriately cleared people in the MAN and MA know they exist.

Simoes knows that there was a rumor of some sort of black program involving some sort of unusual propulsion. Exactly how much Simoes knows is unclear. He's an expert on hyperspace physics, so he might actually know very little and made a lot of logical guesses. There is no evidence that he had any knowledge or suspicion that this was combined by some sort of plot-device-class super stealth system that violates thermodynamics.

He had never seen the actual hardware for his project, he absolutely had never seen any of the components of a spider drive. He has no certain knowledge that the project can produce viable HW, much less that it already had done this years ago, much less that the MAN was working on these monster ships.

So, some cleared people in the RMN etc knows that there is a rumor that there was some sort of project that produced some sort of drive that differed from the impeller.

They also know that the attack didn't require any such mystery technology. None of the missiles that launched in-ststem were detected prior to their drive lighting off.

And the details of the attack are not exactly clear, especially at the stations. Having dozens of gigaton-range fusions reactors blowing up inside the station while dozens of megaton range weapons go off outside is hard on sensors and recording equipment.
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by kzt   » Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:05 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:My problem is less about the specifics of the battle, though there are two big problems with it. It's more of the fact that it happened at all. It's the fact that Galton was introduced and removed from the board in a single book, without majorly advancing the plot for finding the Alignment. We could argue it makes finding more difficult now, but that's also the opposite of what we've been thinking the direction of the series should be.

It's Anton Chekhov's gun, where the gun hanging on the wall in act one is never used because the invisible cyber ninjas fill the room with invisible nerve gas just as our protagonist is about to defeat their hated antagonist. Everyone falls to the floor, goes into convulsions and dies while the gun levitates out of the scene as the curtain falls.

The end.
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by cthia   » Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:01 am

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kzt wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:My problem is less about the specifics of the battle, though there are two big problems with it. It's more of the fact that it happened at all. It's the fact that Galton was introduced and removed from the board in a single book, without majorly advancing the plot for finding the Alignment. We could argue it makes finding more difficult now, but that's also the opposite of what we've been thinking the direction of the series should be.

Galton in a single bound is what makes me think that the end is nigh. And if the end is nigh then the plot was majorly advanced. We are just not aware of it. I came away from TEiF with the feeling that the devil is in the details. The fly in the MAlign's ointment is somewhere in TEiF. Namely, all of the data that hasn't yet been scrutinized with a fine-toothed comb. Wasn't there mention of data that hadn't been accessed yet? As far as finding the Alignment, TEiF is like the catchphrase about the ingredients of PREGO - the popular spaghetti sauce - it's in there.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:27 am

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kzt wrote:And the details of the attack are not exactly clear, especially at the stations. Having dozens of gigaton-range fusions reactors blowing up inside the station while dozens of megaton range weapons go off outside is hard on sensors and recording equipment.


Except that those things aren't simultaneous. There were plenty of readings before the attack on the stations in both the MBS and Yeltsin's Star that occurred before the explosions. At the time they had ghosts in the sensors, but with lots of data analysis after the fact, and by combining the multiple readings, they probably came to the conclusion of what it's not: an impeller. That's why White Haven made the assertion he did.

And then there's the attack on Beowulf during Operation Fabius. The Mycrofts exploded way before any weapons did and those Silver Bullets were on station for a long time. The BSDF and the GA in general probably combed through all the sensor logs again and can probably come to the same conclusion.

Which is why I think it's not possible they forgot that a new drive technology existed. I just can't accept that as an explanation for Honor's tactics.
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:29 am

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cthia wrote:Galton in a single bound is what makes me think that the end is nigh. And if the end is nigh then the plot was majorly advanced. We are just not aware of it. I came away from TEiF with the feeling that the devil is in the details. The fly in the MAlign's ointment is somewhere in TEiF. Namely, all of the data that hasn't yet been scrutinized with a fine-toothed comb. Wasn't there mention of data that hadn't been accessed yet? As far as finding the Alignment, TEiF is like the catchphrase about the ingredients of PREGO - the popular spaghetti sauce - it's in there.


That's what I meant when I said it's going in the opposite direction of what we've been thinking the direction of the series would be. If we expect that there's a very small number of books left, then making the Alignment more difficult to find is not helping. And we've got a book that didn't advance the finding of the Alignment or the Alignment's end goal either. It did make the Alignment weaker in many ways, by cutting off its lifeline through Galton, and by the existence of the Enlightenment.

I agree that there's something there in this book that will help in the long run. I think it'll revolve around Jessica Milliken breaking.
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by kzt   » Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:55 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
kzt wrote:And the details of the attack are not exactly clear, especially at the stations. Having dozens of gigaton-range fusions reactors blowing up inside the station while dozens of megaton range weapons go off outside is hard on sensors and recording equipment.


Except that those things aren't simultaneous. There were plenty of readings before the attack on the stations in both the MBS and Yeltsin's Star that occurred before the explosions. At the time they had ghosts in the sensors, but with lots of data analysis after the fact, and by combining the multiple readings, they probably came to the conclusion of what it's not: an impeller. That's why White Haven made the assertion he did.

They were simultaneous if you are trying to determine how big a graser was used.
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Re: Why did everyone become dumb at the end of TEIF?
Post by cthia   » Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:37 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Galton in a single bound is what makes me think that the end is nigh. And if the end is nigh then the plot was majorly advanced. We are just not aware of it. I came away from TEiF with the feeling that the devil is in the details. The fly in the MAlign's ointment is somewhere in TEiF. Namely, all of the data that hasn't yet been scrutinized with a fine-toothed comb. Wasn't there mention of data that hadn't been accessed yet? As far as finding the Alignment, TEiF is like the catchphrase about the ingredients of PREGO - the popular spaghetti sauce - it's in there.


That's what I meant when I said it's going in the opposite direction of what we've been thinking the direction of the series would be. If we expect that there's a very small number of books left, then making the Alignment more difficult to find is not helping. And we've got a book that didn't advance the finding of the Alignment or the Alignment's end goal either. It did make the Alignment weaker in many ways, by cutting off its lifeline through Galton, and by the existence of the Enlightenment.

I agree that there's something there in this book that will help in the long run. I think it'll revolve around Jessica Milliken breaking.

Hmm... that is interesting, because I couldn't figure out why Milliken had a role in the book. Her role seemed to be there only to give Ruth some more screen time.

But you may be right that she may know a lot of juicy stuff. But that changes my opinion that Eric Flint is responsible for her story, because if her part leads to the Alignment, then that would be a decision of David's. Hmm... at any rate, the part about Ruth breaking her is sort of a tease and was simply left hanging. I thought a chapter had been left out of the book or something. Or that part simply fell prey to the pitfalls of collaborations.

Anyway, anyone else wonder if the Alignment will ever be found? If Darius is found, there will be no more enemies and the HV will be done.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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