Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:I tend to agree. Sure you could try to coerce the head of state into ordering the military to stand down and the government to surrender -- but I doubt there are any rules of war that say a system or empire should then actually obey.

In most systems with effective militaries and democratic systems of government, orders under duress must be ignored. So a captured general, admiral, senator, or head of government or of state cannot issue orders. Military personnel will probably know code words or phrases to indicate they are under duress too, while one hopes you don't misplace heads of state and get unconfirmeable orders by video-email.

In autocratic / theocratic systems with cult of personality, that's a different story.

I'm talking about the Mesan Alignment. I doubt this enemy would even want to hide the fact that she is under duress. On the contrary, that is their point. Their prevailing point is that her duress will soon turn to death.

When an enemy has you by the balls (or the crotch) because they have captured your ruler, and they want to... talk, you put them on the screen. When they are talking they are not murdering their hostage.

Jonathan_S wrote:

tlb wrote:When King Richard was captured, the English government just carried on with Prince John.

I really doubt that would be treated the same as capturing the orbitals, more like what happens when the head of government is in a coma.

I tend to agree. Sure you could try to coerce the head of state into ordering the military to stand down and the government to surrender -- but I doubt there are any rules of war that say a system or empire should then actually obey.

After all controlling the orbitals is supposed to force a surrender because the planet is effectively defenseless against the attacking fleet -- and should they refuse to surrender at that point the rule of war then authorize the attacking fleet to begin limited orbital strike to destroy their remaining military on planet and compel them to surrender.
That rule was enacted to try and avoid the need to actually carry out those orbital bombardments (which a planet can't effectively block or prevent once it has lost control of its orbitals)

But there's no such risk of mass loss of life if you don't surrender when your (current) ruler is captured. The ruler might lose their life; but that's not a scale of death and destruction that the rules of war need to care about. (And so I doubt they do).
Plus, as noted, the rules of war understand that the planet's government might behave irrationally and refuse to surrender after things are hopeless and that's why they lay out how the attacker is then allowed to escalate things. But what escalation could the attacker do if they only hold the ruler? Sure, they could kill them, but how does that materially prevent the planet in question from continuing to effectively prosecute the war or remove the ability to provide effective armed resistance to ground forces the attacker might want to land?

So, I suspect if their navy was still able to carry on fighting that the rest of the government would just activate whatever succession / continuity of government mechanism existed and continue the war. (Sucks to be that ruler, but maybe you shouldn't have been doing something so foolish as to expose yourself to capture from an enemy that didn't first have to fight their way through your navy and system defense)

By that yardstick, the MBS shouldn't have been doing something foolish to allow themelves to be exposed to the very successful Yawata Strike without the enemy having to fight its way thru their defenses. The Mandarins felt the same way.

cthia wrote:I'm talking about the Mesan Alignment. I doubt this enemy would even want to hide the fact that she is under duress. On the contrary, that is their point. Their prevailing point is that her duress will soon turn to death.

When an enemy has you by the balls (or the crotch) because they have captured your ruler, and they want to... talk, you put them on the screen. When they are talking they are not murdering their hostage.

That is simply not something that you can know to be true. First, I have already pointed out that an HD can be faked, so there is no "proof of life" possible. Second, you have no way to force the other side to honor any bargain made; so the other side can escalate their demands, no matter what you have already done.

Our government position is to not bargain with kidnappers, because no bargain can be enforced. Fortunately the average kidnapper is usually satisfied with a ransom. That will not be true in the case you imagine.

If the Malign hold the Queen of Manticore, then the only possible policy is to mourn her and then avenge her.

Jonathan_S wrote:I suspect if their navy was still able to carry on fighting that the rest of the government would just activate whatever succession / continuity of government mechanism existed and continue the war. (Sucks to be that ruler, but maybe you shouldn't have been doing something so foolish as to expose yourself to capture from an enemy that didn't first have to fight their way through your navy and system defense)

cthia wrote:By that yardstick, the MBS shouldn't have been doing something foolish to allow themelves to be exposed to the very successful Yawata Strike without the enemy having to fight its way thru their defenses. The Mandarins felt the same way.

In what way does that follow?? Manticore had been engaged in a war for surviuval and had apparently come out on top; when they were hit by an unknown enemy with undetectable ships. What is the "wise" move that you can propose to prevent being hit by two unknowns?

The comment by Jonathan S refers to the ruler putting themself in a position to be captured. The closest we have come to that is with Hassan II, which killed the Prime Minister and almost killed the Queen. Again, not the result of a "silly" move.

cthia wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In most systems with effective militaries and democratic systems of government, orders under duress must be ignored. So a captured general, admiral, senator, or head of government or of state cannot issue orders. Military personnel will probably know code words or phrases to indicate they are under duress too, while one hopes you don't misplace heads of state and get unconfirmeable orders by video-email.

In autocratic / theocratic systems with cult of personality, that's a different story.

I'm talking about the Mesan Alignment. I doubt this enemy would even want to hide the fact that she is under duress. On the contrary, that is their point. Their prevailing point is that her duress will soon turn to death.

When an enemy has you by the balls (or the crotch) because they have captured your ruler, and they want to... talk, you put them on the screen. When they are talking they are not murdering their hostage.

Textev implies that had the Cromarty Assassination gone the "other way around" - had Elizabeth died with Cromarty being the survivor, High Ridge's government would never have risen to accept Saint-Just's ceasefire.

Duke Cromarty would have gone home, put Roger IV under the crown, told Saint-Just to pound sand and finished the war properly before calling his early elections and probably entrenching his government for decades to come with new San Martin peers.

The crown has a clear succession. Had Elizabeth instead been kidnapped by Masadan maniacs and smuggled into Saint-Just's hands, Roger or maybe Michael would have been appointed Regent and the war would have progressed much the same with Cromarty still in charge. Maybe Elizabeth survives to be rescued, or maybe not.

The biggest weakness in Manticore's governing institutions is one common to legislature-derived executives(whether that legislature is elected or otherwise) - the succession can be unclear or uncertain for a variety of reasons:
Political parties having internal rules requiring a leadership election of some type.
The departed leader did not anoint a successor(in case they decide to take over early).
Or that successor lacks sufficient support.
Multi-party coalition politics.

Depending upon those variables, kidnapping/killing the Prime Minister of the day could be far more disruptive and damaging, especially if it manoeuvres another High Ridgesque ass into that office. But the Alignment would also need Elizabeth to react as poorly as she did when High Ridge grabbed the office for maximum effect. I don't think she'll make that mistake again.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:I'm talking about the Mesan Alignment. I doubt this enemy would even want to hide the fact that she is under duress. On the contrary, that is their point. Their prevailing point is that her duress will soon turn to death.

When an enemy has you by the balls (or the crotch) because they have captured your ruler, and they want to... talk, you put them on the screen. When they are talking they are not murdering their hostage.

That is simply not something that you can know to be true. First, I have already pointed out that an HD can be faked, so there is no "proof of life" possible. Second, you have no way to force the other side to honor any bargain made; so the other side can escalate their demands, no matter what you have already done.

I was working around to responding to your post, but three in a row would have possibly "worn out my welcome."

At any rate, that is true. It has happened to our own government many times. See No Concessions:

tlb wrote:Our government position is to not bargain with kidnappers, because no bargain can be enforced. Fortunately the average kidnapper is usually satisfied with a ransom. That will not be true in the case you imagine.

That is not true. Our policy is not to negotiate with terrorists. We do negotiate with states/governments. Do absorb the link.

tlb wrote:If the Malign hold the Queen of Manticore, then the only possible policy is to mourn her and then avenge her.

Lose an asset without firing a diplomatic shot? When the offer is there? Sure, it may go sour, but failing to even try in good faith when the offer may be on the table is political suicide in my opinion. Willie Alexander(?) and the current government will be hung out to dry. Welcome to the reigns Cathy Montaign. You would advocate not even trying? Frankly that is disrespectful to Beth. And, tactically it makes no sense either. It may buy time to find the enemy.

Jonathan_S wrote:I suspect if their navy was still able to carry on fighting that the rest of the government would just activate whatever succession / continuity of government mechanism existed and continue the war. (Sucks to be that ruler, but maybe you shouldn't have been doing something so foolish as to expose yourself to capture from an enemy that didn't first have to fight their way through your navy and system defense)

cthia wrote:By that yardstick, the MBS shouldn't have been doing something foolish to allow themelves to be exposed to the very successful Yawata Strike without the enemy having to fight its way thru their defenses. The Mandarins felt the same way.

tlb wrote:In what way does that follow?? Manticore had been engaged in a war for surviuval and had apparently come out on top; when they were hit by an unknown enemy with undetectable ships. What is the "wise" move that you can propose to prevent being hit by two unknowns?

The comment by Jonathan S refers to the ruler putting themself in a position to be captured. The closest we have come to that is with Hassan II, which killed the Prime Minister and almost killed the Queen. Again, not the result of a "silly" move.

I was pointing out the absurdity of the statement. Against this unprecedented enemy with its unprecedented toys, why assume Beth has to do anything foolish to jeopordize her safety. No more than the RMN did anything foolish to allow Oyster Bay. That is very straightforward.

Besides, negotiating and failing because of an unscrupulous enemy happens all of the time. It happened when High Ridge accepted Saint-Just's ceasefire. But, to negotiate may give you a 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, 80/20, 90/10 chance. Not negotiating gives a 0/0 chance of success. When the stakes are high, it seems a no-brainer.

Yes, I agree the ceasefire shouldn't have been accepted.

tlb wrote:If the Malign hold the Queen of Manticore, then the only possible policy is to mourn her and then avenge her.

cthia wrote:Lose an asset without firing a diplomatic shot? When the offer is there? Sure, it may go sour, but failing to even try in good faith when the offer may be on the table is political suicide in my opinion. Willie Alexander(?) and the current government will be hung out to dry. Welcome to the reigns Cathy Montaign. You would advocate not even trying? Frankly that is disrespectful to Beth. And, tactically it makes no sense either. It may buy time to find the enemy.

Maybe this could be argued with regard to accepting the ceasefire offer from the Peoples' Republic of Haven. But I do not believe that this would be acceptable for the case where the Malign had the Queen. For one thing, we know better than the average person on the street that the Malign is not going to allow Manticore to go back to the situation before her capture; I expect that all responsible members of government would also know that. I also expect that Cathy Montaigne knows that, so there would not be a change in government.

The most that I would think could happen is that a channel of communication will open, but no demands will ultimately be considered. Anything more and the Prime Minister will be in the position of holding a piece of paper promising "peace in our time".

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:At any rate, I agree with you both. I never envisioned that something like this would be formally encapsulated within the rules of war. I meant "substitution" by way of the human element. Could a government be forced to surrender by playing the violin on their emotions. I think that would be a resounding NO if "Soul of Steel" has to order a surrender. Likewise for Eloise Pritchart. But I'm none to certain about Protector Benjamin and Grayson. And, as I already stated, I think the Andermani would surrender to get the Emperor back.

I disagree on both. Even attempting to kidnap a member of the Andermani imperial family is going to cause the Andermani to fight harder. A successful kidnapping of the emperor is only doubly or triply more so. It might be demoralising and possibly very damaging, but it wouldn't lead to immediate surrender.

An attempted kidnapping or assassination would cause any polity to fight harder. But if the objective is successful, I question fighting harder if ransom demands are made and you value your ruler.

From all of the history and media I've digested, I always thought that Emperors seemed to be like Gods. I googled and found out that the people of Japan did indeed consider Hirohito to be a living God. They would have been lost without him. At one point I compared Imperial Japan to a beehive. Remove the Queen and the hive dies. The symbolic power of the Emperor is just so strong. Even when Japan was defeated by the US, didn't Truman decide to leave the Emperor be, for fear that fighting would resume?

The Andermani Emperor seems to be a prisoner because of it. His movements seem to be restricted far and beyond what a ruler normally has to cope with. And inasmuch as that may be true, I totally understand Jonathan's actual intent that the movements and itinerary of the Queen must be kept on a very short leash. Look what almost happened in the Endicott System. I wonder if Gustav XI has ever left the planet, let alone the system.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:On Grayson, a good portion of the steadholders would actually welcome the Protector being removed because it increases their relative power, so no, they wouldn't vote to surrender. And the military is pretty professional, so they wouldn't accept such a coerced order.

LOL That is just so wrong, but it may be true. But the Steadholders aren't that petty. They would at least feign sadness. But most of the population would cry for him. I am not sure how the CHU would lean. The Church is the wildcard, IMO.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:On Masada, however, that would work. Capture Council Elder Symmonds and they surrender. Pretty sure that's what happened, because the military defeat and capturing the orbitals would not have done it... Masadans would try to fight the orbiting starships with spears if they could.

Another beehive government. Who else would even want the reigns?

Addressing snips from two of tlb's posts.

tlb wrote:Fortunately the average kidnapper is usually satisfied with a ransom. That will not be true in the case you imagine.

tlb wrote:Maybe this could be argued with regard to accepting the ceasefire offer from the Peoples' Republic of Haven. But I do not believe that this would be acceptable for the case where the Malign had the Queen. For one thing, we know better than the average person on the street that the Malign is not going to allow Manticore to go back to the situation before her capture; I expect that all responsible members of government would also know that. I also expect that Cathy Montaigne knows that, so there would not be a change in government.

The most that I would think could happen is that a channel of communication will open, but no demands will ultimately be considered. Anything more and the Prime Minister will be in the position of holding a piece of paper promising "peace in our time".

Ah, but the MA is a rather bright bunch of bigots. I keep pointing out their location on the Mensa line.

If the MA captured the Queen, I don't think they would be as blind to the value of their prize as Cordelia Ransom was to the value of Honor. What possible ransom demands could the MA spend their valuable prize on? They would not ask for money. One simply cannot put a monetary value on QEIII anyway. So what could they possibly demand -- which would be valuable enough to them to trade their captured prize -- that would also be something the Manticoran government can agree to?

Glad you asked. Speaking of Michelle Henke, the MA could take a page out of Eloise's book ...


Ransom demands:

1. The RMN can no longer participate in any operations against us. Nor can any of their allies. (Sidelined like Michelle Henke.)

2. (As a prelude to coming out into the open)... Accept the Mesan Alignment and Detweiler's original vision.

3. Peace.

.

cthia wrote:If the MA captured the Queen, I don't think they would be as blind to the value of their prize as Ransom was to the value of Michelle Henke. What possible ransom demands could the MA spend their valuable prize on? They wouldn't ask for money. One cannot put a monetary value on QEIII anyway. So what could they possibly demand -- which would be valuable enough to them to trade their captured prize -- that would also be something the Manticoran government can agree to?

Glad you asked. Speaking of Michelle Henke, the MA could take a page out of Eloise's book ...

Ransom demands:

1. The RMN can no longer participate in any operations against us. Nor can any of their allies. (Sidelined like Michelle Henke.)

2. (As a prelude to coming out into the open)... Accept the Mesan Alignment and Detweiler's original vision.

3. Peace.

Nitpick, Cordelia Ransom, was long dead before Michelle Henke was captured. I think you're victim of your copyediting again

But as for Elizabeth having been captured. Well, I think the MAlign, no matter how smart they are, would find it exceptionally difficult to get past the palace defenses, Royal guardsmen, and treecats that surround the Queen. Invisible ships and weapons are little help here.

But still, if Elizabeth was captured I'm sure she'd be the first to reject any such demands. Her abhorrence of the MAlign's involvement in the genetic slave trade, and the duty she owes her citizens slaughtered in the surprise Oyster Bay attacks and its aftermath at Yawata Crossing, would preclude any thought of leaving them be. (Not to mention her feelings about the faked "terrorist" actions used to attempt to cover Houdini, and the deliberate destruction of the civilian habitats at Beowulf)
She would be more that willing to lay down her life to get justice for all of that; and she'd be incandescently furious if her government made such an agreement to get her back.

And frankly, how could the MAlign trust that Manticore would abide by such once they had Elizabeth back?

Paroling Michelle was far lower risk, the only "demand" was that in exchange for being returned to Manticore she, personally, not serve on the front against the Republic until a suitable prisoner exchange had been made to counterbalance her. Such a "demand" a) is well within the norms of war, and b) isn't a huge risk to Haven even if it had been later ignored.
She was also asked to bring the Queen the message that Eloise would like to negotiate an end to the fighting, but there were no demands in that.

But if Elizabeth is returned she seems very likely to do everything in her considerable power to force Manticore to renege on any promises that their government had made (under duress) to the MAlign; because of her aforementioned sense of duty (and outrage). And without holding her any longer what leverage does the MAlign have to prevent the resumption of hostilities?

But if the MAlign has to hold Elizabeth forever as leverage to keep Manticore from going back on an agreement then how can Manticore be sure she's still alive? At some point they'd have to activate the succession. (Plus agreeing to an end of hostilities just to keep a hostage alive as a permanent hostage seems even less likely to be agreed to that in order to get the hostage back)

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:If the MA captured the Queen, I don't think they would be as blind to the value of their prize as Ransom was to the value of Michelle Henke. What possible ransom demands could the MA spend their valuable prize on? They wouldn't ask for money. One cannot put a monetary value on QEIII anyway. So what could they possibly demand -- which would be valuable enough to them to trade their captured prize -- that would also be something the Manticoran government can agree to?

Glad you asked. Speaking of Michelle Henke, the MA could take a page out of Eloise's book ...

Ransom demands:

1. The RMN can no longer participate in any operations against us. Nor can any of their allies. (Sidelined like Michelle Henke.)

2. (As a prelude to coming out into the open)... Accept the Mesan Alignment and Detweiler's original vision.

3. Peace.

Nitpick, Cordelia Ransom, was long dead before Michelle Henke was captured. I think you're victim of your copyediting again

Doh! I corrected it. Thanks. Happens to me quite often. Too many neurons firing at once and too few catching fire, along with copyediting woes and my uppity spell checker.

Jonathan_S wrote:But as for Elizabeth having been captured. Well, I think the MAlign, no matter how smart they are, would find it exceptionally difficult to get past the palace defenses, Royal guardsmen, and treecats that surround the Queen. Invisible ships and weapons are little help here.

But still, if Elizabeth was captured I'm sure she'd be the first to reject any such demands. Her abhorrence of the MAlign's involvement in the genetic slave trade, and the duty she owes her citizens slaughtered in the surprise Oyster Bay attacks and its aftermath at Yawata Crossing, would preclude any thought of leaving them be. (Not to mention her feelings about the faked "terrorist" actions used to attempt to cover Houdini, and the deliberate destruction of the civilian habitats at Beowulf)
She would be more that willing to lay down her life to get justice for all of that; and she'd be incandescently furious if her government made such an agreement to get her back.

And frankly, how could the MAlign trust that Manticore would abide by such once they had Elizabeth back?

Paroling Michelle was far lower risk, the only "demand" was that in exchange for being returned to Manticore she, personally, not serve on the front against the Republic until a suitable prisoner exchange had been made to counterbalance her. Such a "demand" a) is well within the norms of war, and b) isn't a huge risk to Haven even if it had been later ignored.
She was also asked to bring the Queen the message that Eloise would like to negotiate an end to the fighting, but there were no demands in that.

But if Elizabeth is returned she seems very likely to do everything in her considerable power to force Manticore to renege on any promises that their government had made (under duress) to the MAlign; because of her aforementioned sense of duty (and outrage). And without holding her any longer what leverage does the MAlign have to prevent the resumption of hostilities?

But if the MAlign has to hold Elizabeth forever as leverage to keep Manticore from going back on an agreement then how can Manticore be sure she's still alive? At some point they'd have to activate the succession. (Plus agreeing to an end of hostilities just to keep a hostage alive as a permanent hostage seems even less likely to be agreed to that in order to get the hostage back)

Good points.

The MA certainly cannot be trusted, but the entire Galaxy knows by now that the Manticoran government can be trusted. Whether under duress or not, once her government's word is given, QEIII will not allow her government to renege on a promise. Her and Manticore's reputation has stood her in good stead. Of course, Audrey O'Hanrahan would witness the fruits of the negotiations to the entire Galaxy at large.

But your arguments are sound. Adding to the weight of them would be the fear of her being fitted with nanites that could activate at any time to cause her to kill. Or die. Or both.

But, perhaps she could live to fight another day.