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Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?

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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:30 am

cthia
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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Because your Queen is in Check!


Uh... you do realise there is no such chess move, right?

On the contrary. 'Check' simply means "in threat of being captured" on the very next move. Any piece can technically be in check. It is not called check for the game's sake. Because the rules say you cannot ignore the fact that your King is in check. You must honor the condition! You can ignore your Queen being in check because you may wish to sacrifice her.

But! In this case, Beth is actually the King. She is the ruler. She actually wears "the pants" in the MBS as much as her father King Roger did. This forum has had many a problem with befitting analogies. Project! Of course, you can substitute the phrase 'in jeopardy' if it makes accepting it any easier for you.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In fact, it's very topical: the Queen can be sacrificed, if it wins you the game.

Arrrgh! Please don't remind me of my niece's favorite opening. The Queen's Gambit. The little snot! Decline it, if you ever play against her. You don't stand a chance. But, against men, she likes to toy with their ego. She says men just can't seem to decline it when playing "a girl." Big mistake.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:It's the King that can't be and can be in Check. In this case, the King wouldn't be a person, but likely the MBS as a whole: if the MAN puts the MBS in Check, then the Manticore Government must do anything it needs to save itself.

Right. It is akin to "controlling the orbitals." Do recall early on in the thread when I asked whether 'controlling the Queen' can be substituted in the place of controlling the orbitals. That is the entire gist of this thread. It reminds me of playing football. Coaches teach you not to fall for a fake, by watching the head. Control the head and the ass will follow. Not that I am calling Beth an ass, you see.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:You have no choice but to trust them, unless you are as cold as everyone else who wishes to solve the problem by tossing Beth's ass under the bus. And Justin. And Monroe...


Of course you have a choice! You can choose to not trust them to keep their word and therefore do everything in your power to come up with contingencies in case they fail to live up to their word. In fact, that's what you should do. Because they won't live up to their word.

No!!! I mean, yes, you can choose to sacrifice her. But NO, sacrificing Beth is really not in your best interest. Politically, militarily, socially, and realistically. You are not the MAlign. Manticore brings its people home. They have sort of a "no man left behind" policy. But the point is moot. We are talking about The Queen of Manticore.

It always comes back to your lack of understanding the value of your own Queen. The MA understands the value of your Queen better than you do. So did Haven. Haven just wasn't aware that the replacement would be just as powerful. Ehm, "Daddy's little girl."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, there's no scenario in which the Queen is kidnapped and Monroe is not already dead.

Apparently there is, because it has happened. Perhaps Monroe and many others have been drugged. Knocked out. Remember when I suggested long long ago that there would come a time that the MA will stop sparing its tech and will use it with complete and utter abandon? When the cat is already out of the bag (pardon the pun) then there is no need to spare the capability by worrying about using compulsion too much, when playing for all of the marbles. Consider using compulsion on several of Beth's key personnel or staff. Several!

ThinksMarkedly wrote:If coldly tossing the queen under the bus is one extreme, then emotionally giving in to anything because she is who she is is the other. There's a lot of grey area in the middle and this is what we're arguing.

What grey area? This is anything but! Your revered Queen is in jeopardy, and you'd like to have her back. Listen people. Negotiating for the safe return of an important figure is nothing new under the sun. Please do digest the link I included very early on about America's history of negotiating with the enemy. And for far less exalted people. I continue to be gobsmacked by this issue. You seem to think this is science fiction.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:No, nobody will actually think that the MA can be trusted. There are those who are still against the alliance with Haven -- partly, I believe -- because of trust. But, just like with the question of whether to accept the offer made by Eloise, your nuts are in a vise between a rock and a hard place. There is no choice.

But again, whether you can trust the MA in the long run is secondary and counter-productive to getting the Queen back. That is the more pressing issue on the board right now.


No, it's not secondary, because it depends on what they're asking for you to do in order to get the Queen back. If their demands are what you've said, toothless and naïve as they are, then sure, agree to them because the short- and long-term effects of having agreed to them are minimal.

Finally. There's light at the end of the tunnel. I can't imagine the MA will mind if you think their demands are toothless. They will probably prefer it. I think that is their point. It is engineered to appear "benign." Thus something easily agreed to. Why ask for something you know won't be given. Peace is important to all concerned. A cease-fire is all they care about. Until their malignant spots reappear.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I seriously, seriously doubt anyone would make those demands. They'd ask for more, which would make the Government have to decide whether those short- and long-term effects are worse than losing the Queen.

You keep saying that and I keep scratching my head. It is exactly what Saint-Just asked for! The fact that he didn't have to kidnap the Queen to force it is besides the point. Although he did force the Queen's and the government's hand just as effectively. And the fact that the RMN knew where Saint-Just lived is just as "besides the point."

Focus!, and stop dilly-dallying at the negotiating table. You wouldn't be stalling for time in hopes of an ill-advised rescue attempt against this enemy, would you? Don't.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:And! I do understand everyone's reluctance in doing what you must to get the Queen back, even short of surrender. Oftentimes on the chessboard, a weaker player will give up most of his firepower, and position, trying to save his Queen. You must learn to play without her.


And sometimes they'll offer up the queen to gain an advantage that will lead to victory. It's mighty risky, but it's possible.

My niece haunts me. I have learned to decline the Queen's Gambit against her every time. Which is a psychological win for her of sorts. But I have a better chance of surviving a psychological loss to my ego. Rather than accepting her favorite opening, which is suicide.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:But, considering this particular Queen. Is it a good idea considering the amount of time she ruled her kingdom, and the wheeling and dealing she did with the factions of the government? And her importance to the entire Galaxy at large? Are we absolutely sure the successive ruler and associated government won't end up being worse than High Ridge? For a very long time? A totally new government could result in ending the Grand Alliance by alienating Haven and leading to war. It could alienate Grayson. It could alienate the Andermani.

War is always just one misunderstanding away. Politics is more dangerourous than war.


No, we can't be absolutely sure which one would be worse, depending on what the demands are.

Focus! Losing such an important person would be awful. You do know that. Or rather, you should. Your morale would suck. Do you really think someone as important as Beth wouldn't be worth the effort? Heck, there came a time when the entire Galaxy would have done as much to get Honor back. Talk about missteps that might alienate Grayson. You are flirting with political disaster buddy. Seems I was wrong. Politics is much more dangerous than war.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Again, kidnapping the Queen could be a mission saved for a specific set of conditions, like if the MA was alerted that the GA was gearing up to attack.


It's already highly unlikely that the Queen could be kidnapped. It's even less likely that she could be kidnapped at will, at a time of the kidnappers' choosing, without depending on factors out of their control. A successful kidnapping likely depends on the Queen putting herself in a risky situation that the Queen's Own regiment has not realised is such. Operation Hassan could only be launched because the Queen was going to visit the Steadholders; if she were to meet only with the Protector, the operation could never happen.

And the chance of such a condition being present while the GA is preparing to assault Darius is effectively indistinguishable from zero. At such a time, the GA is likely going to be at high alert and the Queen would be elbows-deep into the strategic considerations of such a thing.

You have got to get over this "highly unlikely." Hasn't this enemy taught you that anything is likely? Besides, successful engagements are usually about doing the unlikely.

Operation Hassan was essentially a quick, rushed plan to take advantage of an unexpected situation. Providence. It wasn't planned for eons like I imagine this has been. Your "highly unlikely" seems to affect your judgement too much. You don't believe that Beth's staff could have been infiltrated long ago? There could be several very dear cherished spies amongst Beth's closest staff. You only need to succeed in getting one into place. Then that one can refer another. (Especially after ingeniously producing an opening in the staff by other means.) Their reference would go a long way. Etc. Etc. Good help is hard to come by. They easily become trusted family. It would be a very valuable infiltration cultivated for decades whose time has come. I am sure it will hurt to betray her that way. But duty calls.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:53 pm

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cthia wrote:
No, we can't be absolutely sure which one would be worse, depending on what the demands are.

Focus! Losing such an important person would be awful. You do know that. Or rather, you should. Your morale would suck. Do you really think someone as important as Beth wouldn't be worth the effort? Heck, there came a time when the entire Galaxy would have done as much to get Honor back. Talk about missteps that might alienate Grayson. You are flirting with political disaster buddy. Seems I was wrong. Politics is much more dangerous than war.


Ok, so this is the summary of the thread and we'll have to agree to disagree.

You're saying that losing the Queen is an extremely bad situation and there's almost nothing, if anything at all, that is worse than that. I'm saying that there are worse situations than losing the Queen and I can envision some of them very easily, like giving the MAlign the compact FTL and compact reactor tech.

What I don't understand is why, if you're right, if the Queen is such an important asset that Manticore would give up anything to get her back, the MAlign would settle for asking for so little. Are they stupid?
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:48 pm

cthia
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cthia wrote:
No, we can't be absolutely sure which one would be worse, depending on what the demands are.

Focus! Losing such an important person would be awful. You do know that. Or rather, you should. Your morale would suck. Do you really think someone as important as Beth wouldn't be worth the effort? Heck, there came a time when the entire Galaxy would have done as much to get Honor back. Talk about missteps that might alienate Grayson. You are flirting with political disaster buddy. Seems I was wrong. Politics is much more dangerous than war.


ThinksMarkedly wrote:Ok, so this is the summary of the thread and we'll have to agree to disagree.

You're saying that losing the Queen is an extremely bad situation and there's almost nothing, if anything at all, that is worse than that. I'm saying that there are worse situations than losing the Queen and I can envision some of them very easily, like giving the MAlign the compact FTL and compact reactor tech.

What I don't understand is why, if you're right, if the Queen is such an important asset that Manticore would give up anything to get her back, the MAlign would settle for asking for so little. Are they stupid?

That is not exactly what I have been saying. I am suggesting that losing the Queen over the demands listed is ridiculous.

And I think you agree. Which is why you can't understand or imagine why the MA would ask for so little, knowing the value of the Queen. But I think you underestimate the value of a cease-fire for them. Of peace. Of being able to reel in their horns and bide their time. No they are not stupid. They are patient. They may feel like time is all they need to solve most of their tech imbalance. The most important thing for them right now would be peace and a cease-fire. Dinner and a movie. Why would they risk sabotaging getting the most important things for them by getting greedy and asking for something inimical to their immediate needs. Even the Galaxy and Beth herself would disagree with essentially giving away such critical trade secrets. Trade secrets that essentially may be only one remove away from surrendering. It reminds me of our current government's recurrent mistake of piling lots of other demands upon the much needed stimulus package for the economy. Which just kept torpedoing it all.

But, I'm curious. Let's assume that the MA can pull off a successful kidnapping of the Queen. What do you think they should demand? I will assume that you agree that simply assassinating her would be a total waste of such a valuable asset.

One thing about a Queen's Gambit is that you must make it appealing. Or it might simply be declined.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:03 pm

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cthia wrote:But I think you underestimate the value of a cease-fire for them. Of peace.


Yes, for two reasons. First, because I can't think that they'd want this in the first place. It must be a ploy to get something else. I am and the Manticore Government would also rightfully be concerned that it's a ploy for time, like OSJ did. So if time is what they want, why should we give it? What are we really missing from their intent, that giving in to what they're asking gives them?

Second, because if peace were their intention, there would be better ways of getting it, without resorting to kidnapping such a valuable asset. It is a very difficult operation to execute, which could result in an accidental death of the Queen or could result in the Manticore Government not giving in. So that makes the situation worse for an Alignment that did want peace.

Note how the second reinforces the first.

Of being able to reel in their horns and bide their time. No they are not stupid. They are patient. They may feel like time is all they need to solve most of their tech imbalance. The most important thing for them right now would be peace and a cease-fire. Dinner and a movie. Why would they risk sabotaging getting the most important things for them by getting greedy and asking for something inimical to their immediate needs. Even the Galaxy and Beth herself would disagree with essentially giving away such critical trade secrets. Trade secrets that essentially may be only one remove away from surrendering. It reminds me of our current government's recurrent mistake of piling lots of other demands upon the much needed stimulus package for the economy. Which just kept torpedoing it all.


Right. So they want time. So why give it to them?

I can understand the earlier discussion of politicians working for the short-term gain in detriment of the long-term one. So solve the current problem, get the Queen back, kick the can down the road, and let the future confrontation with the MAlign be Someone Else's Problem.

Except, of course, that in a prolong society and especially in Manticore's rather stable government, Someone Else might be yourself. Or you might get kicked out of office by the returned Queen, so your short-term gain was very short indeed.

But, I'm curious. Let's assume that the MA can pull off a successful kidnapping of the Queen. What do you think they should demand? I will assume that you agree that simply assassinating her would be a total waste of such a valuable asset.

One thing about a Queen's Gambit is that you must make it appealing. Or it might simply be declined.


I don't think they should attempt a kidnapping in the first because the risk-reward ratio is too unbalanced.

First, there's the fact that you're exposing yourself as an active conspiracy, and one that has sufficient resources to have even reached the point of launching this operation. There aren't many that have this. If the operation fails, you've still revealed there's a threat. Any captured agents that died of natural deaths would be a huge warning to the Galaxy of the active MAlign. And a failed operation can still result in the death of the Queen, because after all you must bring sufficient force to deal with the Queen's Own that is protecting her. Now you haven't gained the Queen for negotiation, but have revealed yourself as her murderer, which is kind of the worst situation, for having inflamed the Manticore population even more than after the Yawata Strike.

Second, even if the operation succeeds, then I don't think they should ask for anything. I think they should interrogate her to get any information they can (like the location of Bolthole, which she knows), then dispose of her and blame someone else. IMO, this is the best option for them: they got something in return, they've sewn doubt with someone else, and they removed an important piece from the board. You're right that she's important and that her death would be very detrimental to Manticore and the Alliance. So do it.

Third, if you want to send her back, then she must be mind-wiped and implanted with some nanite or compulsion. If such things aren't possible, she shouldn't be returned at all.

BTW, there are much easier targets that know the location of Bolthole, many of whom would know details of far greater operational and tactical importance than the Queen. It would be far better and easier to kidnap and interrogate a commodore or admiral than the Queen. So again the risk-reward ratio is totally skewed.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:22 am

cthia
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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:But I think you underestimate the value of a cease-fire for them. Of peace.


Yes, for two reasons. First, because I can't think that they'd want this in the first place. It must be a ploy to get something else. I am and the Manticore Government would also rightfully be concerned that it's a ploy for time, like OSJ did. So if time is what they want, why should we give it? What are we really missing from their intent, that giving in to what they're asking gives them?

I think we are at an impasse. You can't seem to accept that right now, all they really want is the same thing that Saint-Just wanted. Peace and a cease-fire.

Of course, what they really want is something else. Time... for more breakthroughs. Breakthroughs that are stolen by spies or delivered by their own research. Just like Saint-Just wanted something else. Politics and common decency in front of the eyes of the Galaxy demanded that the RMN give in to Saint-Just. Politics and decency in the eyes of the Galaxy and the life of your most revered ruler in history demands that you give in to the MA. The givens are not going to change.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Second, because if peace were their intention, there would be better ways of getting it, without resorting to kidnapping such a valuable asset.

Well, at least you are finally accepting that she is a very valuable asset.

At any rate, how are you so sure that there are better ways of getting peace? Surrendering isn't a better way to get peace. It certainly isn't an acceptable way. If it were, then there would never be a need for war.

And even if there were a better way to achieve what they want short of kidnapping the Queen, why would you assume the MA would be aware of it? If they are aware of it, then wouldn't the logical thing for them to do centuries ago be to sue for peace, and the god-given right to get cosmetic surgery if they so choose?

Let's say Galton was the "end all be all." And there is no Darius. If the MA had gotten wind of an impending attack on Galton, and they did, why would you assume that they would assume that the way to head that off (as Saint-Just did) is to sue for peace? Beth would have shoved her answer right inside an MK-23E then shoved that right up Noveau Paris' ass. Just as she had planned to do. The MAlign thinks the majority of the Galaxy is as morally bankrupt as they are and are out to get them. They only know what they know. Besides, most of the Galaxy is out to get them. That is why Honor had to lay down the law to her avenging fleet that there would be a line that they wouldn't cross. How many people do you think were not battling their own raging internal desires against that decree? Because total annihilation is what they wanted. That is why Honor still chose to show compassion when she was suckered in the end. To show the population of Galton that she is not like them. It was also to show her own "drunk with revenge since the Yawata Strike" people that they are not the MA.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:It is a very difficult operation to execute, which could result in an accidental death of the Queen or could result in the Manticore Government not giving in. So that makes the situation worse for an Alignment that did want peace.

All military operations carry a risk. War is the epitome of risk. However, inaction is worse. Also, the risk is to your Queen. Not theirs. If your Queen dies, then it was simply a successful assassination. Oh well. Drats. But oh well. I am also certain there were collateral casualties. Minimal, but still there. When you are already on death row, what is another several or more lives?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Note how the second reinforces the first.

There were holes in the first thus the second as well.

cthia wrote:Of being able to reel in their horns and bide their time. No they are not stupid. They are patient. They may feel like time is all they need to solve most of their tech imbalance. The most important thing for them right now would be peace and a cease-fire. Dinner and a movie. Why would they risk sabotaging getting the most important things for them by getting greedy and asking for something inimical to their immediate needs. Even the Galaxy and Beth herself would disagree with essentially giving away such critical trade secrets. Trade secrets that essentially may be only one remove away from surrendering. It reminds me of our current government's recurrent mistake of piling lots of other demands upon the much needed stimulus package for the economy. Which just kept torpedoing it all.


ThinksMarkedly wrote:Right. So they want time. So why give it to them?

To relieve the pressure of that vise-grip that seems to be making "whine" out of your grapes. LOL

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I can understand the earlier discussion of politicians working for the short-term gain in detriment of the long-term one. So solve the current problem, get the Queen back, kick the can down the road, and let the future confrontation with the MAlign be Someone Else's Problem.

Except, of course, that in a prolong society and especially in Manticore's rather stable government, Someone Else might be yourself. Or you might get kicked out of office by the returned Queen, so your short-term gain was very short indeed.

So, essentially you are saying "Throw Beth's ass under the bus so that Hamish can continue his march to Noveau Paris." Once bitten, twice shy. I understand that. So too do the MA. So, obviously, they feel they need a fulcrum to get what they want. They feel they must get you past your shyness. A fulcrum tightening the vise attached to your testacles seems to be a good way to get you past the bitter taste in your mouth. The taste of relief is much better.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:But, I'm curious. Let's assume that the MA can pull off a successful kidnapping of the Queen. What do you think they should demand? I will assume that you agree that simply assassinating her would be a total waste of such a valuable asset.

One thing about a Queen's Gambit is that you must make it appealing. Or it might simply be declined.


I don't think they should attempt a kidnapping in the first because the risk-reward ratio is too unbalanced.

As I said above, the only risk is to your Queen. And perhaps to a few pawns the MA is ready to sacrifice. Pawns that are anxious to sacrifice themselves if need be. For all intents and purposes, those are cultus pawns. But the reward is great in the eyes of the MA. As it was to Saint-Just. I imagine Oscar opened a bottle of his finest champagne when he got his cease-fire.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:First, there's the fact that you're exposing yourself as an active conspiracy, and one that has sufficient resources to have even reached the point of launching this operation. There aren't many that have this.

The same as it is in most hostage situations involving the state. That is why they are honored. It is because the belligerents are known to be state governments with lots of resources making a simple rescue or contingency plan next to impossible. And as I also said above, the MA may feel the cat is already out of the bag as far as the Galaxy (or the part of the Galaxy that has war machines, or the part that matters) is concerned. Moot point.

This is the 'head off the vengeful juggernaut which is headed for (what would be) Galton with blood in its eye,' contingency. The Alignment calls this contingency The Queen's Gambit. The Gambit is hard to decline in real life.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:If the operation fails, you've still revealed there's a threat. Any captured agents that died of natural deaths would be a huge warning to the Galaxy of the active MAlign.

A moot point at this juncture. And please, do let that warning sink in. It will certainly sink into the nightmares of the Galaxy at large. Manticore sent a thinly veiled warning to the SL for peace. But let the more immediate warning that your Queen will be sacrificed for a few pawns be the first thing to sink in. And your position is, now, inferior without morale, an experienced government, a supportive government ...

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And a failed operation can still result in the death of the Queen, because after all you must bring sufficient force to deal with the Queen's Own that is protecting her. Now you haven't gained the Queen for negotiation, but have revealed yourself as her murderer, which is kind of the worst situation, for having inflamed the Manticore population even more than after the Yawata Strike.

When will the Galaxy figure out that the idea of an Alpha's sufficient force is a lot different than anyone else's. The SL didn't figure that out until it was much too late. "Manticore's defenses simply must be gone!" Alpha's work smart not hard.

Revealed themselves as a murderer? You say potato. They say pototto. You say tomato. They say tomotto. You say murder. They say assassination.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Second, even if the operation succeeds, then I don't think they should ask for anything. I think they should interrogate her to get any information they can (like the location of Bolthole, which she knows), then dispose of her and blame someone else. IMO, this is the best option for them: they got something in return, they've sewn doubt with someone else, and they removed an important piece from the board. You're right that she's important and that her death would be very detrimental to Manticore and the Alliance. So do it.

Interrogation to find Bolthole may or may not be smart. For reasons. But even if they do interrogate Beth in a humane manner, and even if successful, then what? She becomes like a used prostitute that is no longer wanted because of her sins? Besides, I'm not certain an interrogation will work against the 'Soul of Steel.' :D

At any rate, she is still valuable even if she is "used." If the MA is successful in obtaining the location of Bolthole, Beth is still a valuable asset. Why not milk that cow for all she is worth? The MA is smart when their emotions don't confuse them. Now, get a cease-fire.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Third, if you want to send her back, then she must be mind-wiped and implanted with some nanite or compulsion. If such things aren't possible, she shouldn't be returned at all.

I disagree. She is still a very valuable asset. Get the cease-fire, which, again like the Peeps, is the most important thing. What good is the location of Bolthole, along with all of the rest of the GA's secrets if the Salamander is headed to your lair to rewrite your gene sequence. And wiping her mind, harming her in any way, would probably invalidate the agreement.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, there are much easier targets that know the location of Bolthole, many of whom would know details of far greater operational and tactical importance than the Queen. It would be far better and easier to kidnap and interrogate a commodore or admiral than the Queen. So again the risk-reward ratio is totally skewed.

That is an assumption. If the infrastructure has been in place to kidnap the Queen for decades by the infiltration of her staff, that might be much easier than trying to gain access to anyone else, who may or may not know the location of Bolthole. And, again, what good is hitting the lottery if you are not going to get to spend the money?


Note: There is a tactic on the chessboard whereby an opponent can fork your Queen. That is when a piece, most commonly a Knight, simultaneously threatens both the King and Queen. Which will lead to you losing your Queen. Usually. If the Queen's Gambit is declined against my niece, watch out for her tactic of forcing the issue for free with a fork, because of the present position. Which is worse, because you lose your Queen for free. A fork can also happen with a single pawn when playing against an idiot.

There also exists a maneuver to "pin" the Queen down against the King. For example, a doubled Rook is pinning the Queen against the King. The Queen cannot move out of jeopardy because that would expose the King. The only way out is to exchange your Queen for a Rook.

The MA has accomplished both a fork and a pin. I told you they are smart. You can't play chess with an Alpha. The little snot!

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:08 am

cthia
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I was reading the thread and realized that I left out a very significant element. It is one of the most important things that will make declining the Gambit very difficult. I glossed over it in various places, but I never pressed the point home ...

I can't shake the question that if an enemy like the MA is close to defeat, what prevents him from lashing out from hell's heart? On Earth that might mean launching an ICBM at Washington. Just a single strike. If Russia did so, would the US respond in kind? And only in kind? Letting the punishment fit the crime? Which means, take out Moscow. But Moscow, only?

Switching gears to what conceived this train of thought. The MAlign only has to formally introduce the Lenny Dets to the Galaxy to inspire fear, and respect. It is akin to the US having to first demonstrate the destructiveness of the nuclear bomb before it will be feared.


What would make the entire Galaxy and the overwhelming opinion of most of the inhabitants of the MBS pray that Manticore accepts the hostage demands.

All the MA has to do is showcase its technological advantage to the Galaxy. The Yawata Strike was small potatoes by comparison. When the Spiders leave their nest and crawl all over the Galaxy, showing what they can do. The MA can rewrite the book on EEV.

The GA struck the MA at a tender spot, Galton.

but that very action may have an equal and/or opposite reaction.

Now the MA strikes at one or both of the galaxy's tender spots. Grayson. The SL.

The MA could strike at Grayson. A God fearing system of which the MA could care less. But the galaxy would be moved.

The MA could strike at the SL now and finish its demise by completely smashing the Sol system, which may fuel even more successions out of fear, or, necessity. The MA could use the attack on the cradle of civilization to solicit empathy towards the SL. Closely followed by fear. No other systems will want to be the source of any more "demonstrations."

Suddenly, peace - even in the face of anger, but one of necessity born out of helplessness - all of a suddenly sounds like a good idea.

Beowulf would be a very good choice of targets to showcase the Lenny Dets.

"Can you hear us now? Oh, now you want to talk peace."

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by Brigade XO   » Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:38 am

Brigade XO
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The Alignment has already lashed out, at least the Detweiler Boys have, and the rest of the the organization seems to thinks that was ok. Well, perhaps not the quiet little group on Darius we just found out about but anybody else who seems to be running the show.

What would obliterating the Grayson Orbital Farms and Habitats plus going ahead and smacking the planet itself with multiple massive KEWs (or even 100megatons fusion weapons) -particulary when you are talking 50- cities which are basically domed life support habitats for a toxic planet soaked in heavy metals?

Perhaps you want to make an example of the Sol system- it's already had it orbit and space born industries destroyed but you certainly comment multiple EE violations and blast the surface and that massive population (including much of the buracacy and all those delegates to the Convention to dust). That would impress a lot of people.

But why? Just exactly who would now believe that the GA was doing it (or either of the SEM, RH, Aldermani etc) and hasn't the entire plan been for the Alignment to hide behind smokescreens and catspaws and manage their takeover without l\etting anybody know it was them doing all this?

Heck, if the LD's are so much the future dominant warship which can sneak in, crush planitary civilizations and get clean a way, why not just send one or maybe even two to Sol and a few other places and take the pieces (that's all they are to the alignment, pieces in a game) off the board and then shout "They did it" though their mouthpieces and point fingers at a feud within the GA and friends (surprise they were so quiet about that when they were cooperating against Sol). If I understand the thrust of going system bashing again, wouldn't that just make even more chaos and distrust against almost any other know competent force in the human occupied part of the galaxy? Besides, what's another couple of hundred billion "normals" and a couple of planets (Grayson isn't exactly a prize from habitability stand point and the local religion IS going to be trouble for the Alignment down the road.....too much moral and ethical centering way outside of what the Alighment requires.

So, no, not a punitive massive replay of Oyster Bay because that would have "The Other Guys" written all over it and why would you want to do that after you just sacrificed Galton to prove it isn't "you" ---whoever "you" might actually have been,

Or they are just psycopaths who want to wallow in blood and destruction. Which is apparently somewhat closer to the truth based on what they have been doing.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by munroburton   » Sat Dec 11, 2021 9:41 am

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cthia wrote:I was reading the thread and realized that I left out a very significant element. It is one of the most important things that will make declining the Gambit very difficult. I glossed over it in various places, but I never pressed the point home ...


I know you like to move goalposts, but this has got to be a record-breaker even for you. :lol:

All the MA has to do is showcase its technological advantage to the Galaxy. The Yawata Strike was small potatoes by comparison. When the Spiders leave their nest and crawl all over the Galaxy, showing what they can do. The MA can rewrite the book on EEV.


Indeed, that is what I suggested their ultimate plan with the Detweiler-class spiderships are. Each single one capable of reproducing an entire Yawata Strike all on its lonesome.

If, or when, they do that it's game over for the human race. The MAlign doesn't need to negotiate anymore, they can simply dictate: Do this or we do to your planet what we've done to your space infrastructure.

The only way for the galaxy to escape this tyranny is for them to fail a few targets and for those few survivors to do everything they can to fight back. Even if it involves sacrificing considerably more than one Queen.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by Brigade XO   » Sat Dec 11, 2021 5:02 pm

Brigade XO
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Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 12:31 pm
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I have developed the impression that the LDs are to be the ultimate devastating sneak attack weapons system. You send one of them to a system and letdown a vast seeding of
g-torps and ballistic weapons and then just hammer the system. They even act as their own scouts unless you want to pair them up with a couple of Ghosts which move relatively deep in system and fine-tune the targeting of orbital and deep space infrastructure. You have 20 LD, go strike 20 systems, more or less simultaneously with enough lead time.
The real trick here is that NOBODY actually knows who is doing the attacking, just like with Oyster Bay. Oh, sure, based on the graser weapons used at Beowulf and comparing the surviving reading from Manticore and Grayson, you can probably say it was the same players but who? At the moment not much is known about where the Alighment is outside of a few ship handlers who are plying the courier and cargo routes that include Darius.
The SL, Manticore, and others are still in the process of rolling up Alignment agents (actual or dupes) and so far what is happening on that score as far as how they are doing it has not yet been realized by the inner layers of the onion.
Then there is the Zilwicki factor which is accumulating all sorts of data and following the breadcrumbs. I don't think the Alighment would deliberately lead anybody back to Darius as part of a trap or ambush but they do like to be devious.
On the other hand, although they always intended Galton to fall as yet another scapegoat, they were not revealed as having any knowledge that they system's location had been compromised.
Sure, they were gaming out ways to make it even more destructive and deadly to any attacking force and fine tuning the Alamo plan, but that was for "when" it happens not it's going to happen in two months etc.

So, where do the other termini (other than the one that leads to Torch) lead from the junction near Darius? Mighty quite on that front. Hard to believe that the Alignment doesn't know. It's not like they can't throw wormhole charting ships at it.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:57 pm

cthia
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Posts: 13935
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:10 pm

Brigade XO wrote:I have developed the impression that the LDs are to be the ultimate devastating sneak attack weapons system. You send one of them to a system and letdown a vast seeding of
g-torps and ballistic weapons and then just hammer the system. They even act as their own scouts unless you want to pair them up with a couple of Ghosts which move relatively deep in system and fine-tune the targeting of orbital and deep space infrastructure. You have 20 LD, go strike 20 systems, more or less simultaneously with enough lead time.
The real trick here is that NOBODY actually knows who is doing the attacking, just like with Oyster Bay. Oh, sure, based on the graser weapons used at Beowulf and comparing the surviving reading from Manticore and Grayson, you can probably say it was the same players but who? At the moment not much is known about where the Alighment is outside of a few ship handlers who are plying the courier and cargo routes that include Darius.
The SL, Manticore, and others are still in the process of rolling up Alignment agents (actual or dupes) and so far what is happening on that score as far as how they are doing it has not yet been realized by the inner layers of the onion.
Then there is the Zilwicki factor which is accumulating all sorts of data and following the breadcrumbs. I don't think the Alighment would deliberately lead anybody back to Darius as part of a trap or ambush but they do like to be devious.
On the other hand, although they always intended Galton to fall as yet another scapegoat, they were not revealed as having any knowledge that they system's location had been compromised.
Sure, they were gaming out ways to make it even more destructive and deadly to any attacking force and fine tuning the Alamo plan, but that was for "when" it happens not it's going to happen in two months etc.

So, where do the other termini (other than the one that leads to Torch) lead from the junction near Darius? Mighty quite on that front. Hard to believe that the Alignment doesn't know. It's not like they can't throw wormhole charting ships at it.


Imagine the MA slinking into a system dropping off Spiders and all of their lastest toys. At home in their own system, a navy isn't expecting anything. It wasn't a walk in the park for Honor with her mutt of a fleet, and she readied herself and tried to imagine the worse. Imagine an unsuspecting system all snuggled in their beds with visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads.

This makes me recall some of my own musings when reading TEiF. Sure, the GA may wreak havoc in an MA system. The MA may not be able to stop a combined fleet of the top tier navies. But neither can those systems stop the LDs. So, what, mutual assured destruction?

A stalemate?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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