Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:They are simply asking to bury the hatchet. Peace. They are asking for peace. The Soul of Steel never thought she could forgive the Peeps for all of their wretched wickedness through the many long years. She would never have believed she could forgive the Peeps and let bygones be bygones. They assassinated her father! But lo and behold. An alliance built out of two gravely mortal enemies. Two vampires that feasted at each other's throats in the dark of space for an eternity.

But not now?

Really? The Alignment is not asking for much. And they are offering a lot. They are offering a grand prize to the Grand Alliance. Their collateral is huge, for the value of the Soul of Steel is priceless, a priceless commodity across all markets political, naval, and moral.

Didn't you read my post above?

If the MAlign wants to talk peace, them by all means talk peace. The GA is ready to listen and negotiate in good faith.

You don't know that. I don't know that. And the MA certainly don't know that. They didn't know it centuries ago either when Beowulf's damn code forced this upon the Galaxy.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:There will be need for some concessions, because the MAlign did attack first, skulking in the shadows, without regard to collateral damage to civilian populations. In fact, it struck AT civilian populations in Beowulf. So at a bare minimum a peace treaty would include a provision that the GA patrol all MAN production sites and their ships are not allowed for some time out of their own systems (like the terms imposed on the SL). They'd also need to free the entire slave population and allow for supervision of the genetic programmes.

Concessions? Have you bumped your damn head. The Manticoran government is standing on a landmine. Not the Alignment. Unless you know their address and you can go and press your point home. Like I said, the MA knows the true value of their hostage.

So you want to turn down their offer. See the Queen dead. Widow Justin. See Monroe suicide. Risk a new ruler. Back the MA in a corner and piss them the hell off in the middle of your change of government. I think we may have been too quick to judge Elvis Santino.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:There's no need for kidnapping to get to the negotiation table. The fact that someone would resort to that before opening lines of communication indicates they're not to be trusted. That they're criminals.

I don't know what direct line you have to the government that Elizabeth Winton will accept a peace treaty with the Peeps! Oops. Wrong foe, we are talking about a more malignant enemy. That is much worse! Who told you such a thing? Well, the MA ain't buying it. And I don't blame them one bit.

tlb wrote:The situation is not completely the same, since the final action in the kidnapper case is by the kidnapper (who could have decided to keep the hostage alive awhile longer - there is nothing that forces the death of the hostage).

cthia wrote:Now you are simply arguing semantics. The point still stands. Beth stepped on a landmine, and her bomb squad can negotiate her release.

That is not just a semantic difference: a hostage dying due to failure to meet demands is the immediate result of the kidnapper acting.

For someone to die as the result of removing pressure from a landmine, the blast is the immediate result of the pressure release. Trying to say the the bomb squad is "negotiating" with the bomb is ridiculous.

tlb wrote:In the case of the landmine, it would be my error if I lift my foot knowing that it is on a landmine; but a bomb squad is not in negotiation with the enemy, so that part of the analogy fails. It is more similar to rescuing the Queen by force.

cthia wrote:On the contrary, as far as Beth is concerned, that damn landmine is the more immediate enemy!

This makes no sense to me, given the clear difference between a kidnapper and a landmine; you might be able to negotiate with the first, but it is impossible to negotiate with the second.

tlb wrote:It depends on what I may have done in the mistaken belief that the Queen would be returned.

For example, imagine that they demand the plans for the miniature fusion reactor that powers our missiles. Then they refuse to return the Queen after verifying that the plans are accurate?

cthia wrote:That is not in the ransom demands. The MA's request is somewhat reasonable.

The MA is like a cancer, you want to kill it, yes. But, like all aggressive cancers, if you fail to get it all it will come back with a vengeance.

Beth stepped on a landmine. And your final actions can free her. Worry about tomorrow when tomorrow comes.

I reject that you get to specify the demands of the Malign. Are you going to be at the negotiating table and raising an objection if what they ask is unreasonable? Aren't you risking them killing the Queen, because you just rejected one of their demands?

cthia wrote:Concessions? Have you bumped your damn head. The Manticoran government is standing on a landmine. Not the Alignment. Unless you know their address and you can go and press your point home. Like I said, the MA knows the true value of their hostage.

So you want to turn down their offer. See the Queen dead. Widow Justin. See Monroe suicide. Risk a new ruler. Back the MA in a corner and piss them the hell off in the middle of your change of government. I think we may have been too quick to judge Elvis Santino.

Now that's a harebrained scheme.

The MAlign kidnaps the Queen, then offers to return her if the GA stops fighting; how does the MAlign know that the GA will have stopped searching for Darius and won't attack when they discover it? Why would they go through the trouble of kidnapping the Queen and then returning her without gaining a tangible advantage? The promise to stop fighting is not worth the paper it's written on.

Now suppose they do demand that the MAN station stealth ships in the MBS, Haven and Grayson, to ensure the GA won't keep fighting. Should the GA accept the MAlign's demands for the Queen's safe return?

That's basically exchanging one person as hostage for the entire system as hostage. Why would the GA accept that bargain?

As I said before, the problem is not about negotiating. Quite aside from what the fact that the MAlign can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith, there's the fact that their demands are going to be unacceptable.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:As I said before, the problem is not about negotiating. Quite aside from what the fact that the MAlign can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith, there's the fact that their demands are going to be unacceptable.

Perhaps we are being too harsh: if the demands are actually those that I previously declared "purest drivel", then clearly I have made a terrible mistake by not accepting in exchange for the Queen. My mistake was in thinking that she was being held by the real Malign; whereas she must have run afoul of the "Josie and the Pussycat" branch. For them, I would happily accept their demands, then we will get the Queen back and live in peace and harmony for ever after.

tlb wrote:Perhaps we are being too harsh: if the demands are actually those that I previously declared "purest drivel", then clearly I have made a terrible mistake by not accepting in exchange for the Queen. My mistake was in thinking that she was being held by the real Malign; whereas she must have run afoul of the "Josie and the Pussycat" branch. For them, I would happily accept their demands, then we will get the Queen back and live in peace and harmony for ever after.

If all they want is an unenforceable paper, give it to them. It's negotiation under duress anyway. And no kidnapper receives immunity from prosecution as part of the negotiation.

How does the GA know this branch of the alignment represents the leadership and the negotiated agreement binds them?

Anyway, I still think this is a completely unbelievable scenario. If the MAlign has the resources to get close enough to the Queen to kidnap her, they have resources to slip her a note saying they want to talk.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Concessions? Have you bumped your damn head. The Manticoran government is standing on a landmine. Not the Alignment. Unless you know their address and you can go and press your point home. Like I said, the MA knows the true value of their hostage.

So you want to turn down their offer. See the Queen dead. Widow Justin. See Monroe suicide. Risk a new ruler. Back the MA in a corner and piss them the hell off in the middle of your change of government. I think we may have been too quick to judge Elvis Santino.

Now that's a harebrained scheme.

The MAlign kidnaps the Queen, then offers to return her if the GA stops fighting; how does the MAlign know that the GA will have stopped searching for Darius and won't attack when they discover it? Why would they go through the trouble of kidnapping the Queen and then returning her without gaining a tangible advantage? The promise to stop fighting is not worth the paper it's written on.

Now suppose they do demand that the MAN station stealth ships in the MBS, Haven and Grayson, to ensure the GA won't keep fighting. Should the GA accept the MAlign's demands for the Queen's safe return?

That's basically exchanging one person as hostage for the entire system as hostage. Why would the GA accept that bargain?

As I said before, the problem is not about negotiating. Quite aside from what the fact that the MAlign can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith, there's the fact that their demands are going to be unacceptable.

They don't know for certain the GA will stop looking for them even after the treaty. They do know for certain prior to any negotiation that they will not stop looking, and what the GA will do if they find them.

But that is all academic. You failed to consume what I said upstream that is also academic. The entire galaxy at large knows that the one nation that can definitely be trusted is the Manticoran government. The MA knows that they have a very good chance that the Queen will honor any promises made. The MA also knows what will happen if they renege. By the same token, what do you think an enemy capable of their stealth will do to the planet if Manticore renege? One guess. Ok ok, I'll talk ...

The Alignment will make it rain missile-sized hail. No more orbital debris.

But you're coming around. Accept the damn offer. Even if Beth has to abdicate the throne and a new government forms.

tlb wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:As I said before, the problem is not about negotiating. Quite aside from what the fact that the MAlign can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith, there's the fact that their demands are going to be unacceptable.

Perhaps we are being too harsh: if the demands are actually those that I previously declared "purest drivel", then clearly I have made a terrible mistake by not accepting in exchange for the Queen. My mistake was in thinking that she was being held by the real Malign; whereas she must have run afoul of the "Josie and the Pussycat" branch. For them, I would happily accept their demands, then we will get the Queen back and live in peace and harmony for ever after.

Whereas any one of "the gang" could be named Josie, I doubt very seriously that you can refer to any one of a gang that has managed to orchestrate a successful kidnapping of Queen Elizabeth a pussycat.

cthia wrote: The entire galaxy at large knows that the one nation that can definitely be trusted is the Manticoran government. The MA knows that they have a very good chance that the Queen will honor any promises made. The MA also knows what will happen if they renege. By the same token, what do you think an enemy capable of their stealth will do to the planet if Manticore renege? One guess. Ok ok, I'll talk ...

The Alignment will make it rain missile-sized hail. No more orbital debris.

But you're coming around. Accept the damn offer. Even if Beth has to abdicate the throne and a new government forms.

So the whole inhabited galaxy knows that Manticore can be trusted, but nobody knows if the Malign can. So if Manticore declines, then more of the same from the Malign and the Queen dies; but if Manticore accepts then the Malign gets to continue to scheme until it is ready to go back on the offensive (the same as Saint-Just intended). The only bargain here is the the Queen lives in exchange for calling off the hunt. If that really is the only thing that is requested, then it might be accepted and the hunt would officially be given a different mission (does the phrase "the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions" ring a bell?**). However that means basically no change, which is part of the reason that I expect the demands will not be so simple.

You asked previously "Who would do the bargaining?". The current Foreign Office would clearly be in charge, but I expect the Prime Minister would involve the major opposition parties.

cthia wrote:Whereas any one of "the gang" could be named Josie, I doubt very seriously that you can refer to any one of a gang that has managed to orchestrate a successful kidnapping of Queen Elizabeth a pussycat.

However technically accomplished the gang may be, I called them that for the laughable demands that you presented for them. If those were the real demands, then there is no problem accepting them; but the real Malign would be asking for something more malignant.

** This can even be done in a way that excludes Manticore from any facet of the hunt, since any such agreement would not affect efforts by Beowulf, Haven, Torch, the League and perhaps whatever develops at Mesa. All of them have strong incentive to hunt down the criminal organization that has caused so much harm. Moreover, by means of the kidnapping that organization has proclaimed to all that it exists.

PS. I presume you are aware that "Josie and the Pussycats" is a girl band that came out of the Archie comic books of the 70's.

Here's the thing. You want to keep your Queen in play on the board. If you lose her, you can "promote" someone else to a Queen later. But your strategic and tactical position changed immediately after the loss and later it may be too late. It very well might turn out to be an untenable position at the moment of her loss. And you cannot be sure the new Queen's power in this particular position at this particular juncture helps. On the chessboard, sometimes, a bishop, knight or rook is best.

IOW, Beth's successor may be all wrong in the middle of a war. Especially against this enemy. Any change of ruler and associated government may be all wrong. The Peeps thought so too. That is why King Roger was assassinated. Against the Alignment, Beth's 'Soul of Steel' will be tested. Any other mettle in the form of any other Queen and her government might be bent or broken. Manticore got lucky when it was forced to "promote" QEIII. You think they should roll the dice twice?

On the chessboard I've seen brilliant Queen sacrifices for overwhelming position. My niece likes to use it (the little snot). She'll dangle her out seemingly unprotected like bait. You take. She pounces. It is usually a quite brutal and decisive strike.

All of you aim at a decisive counterstrike. Which is impossible if you don't know where to find the foe. You also seem to care more about your position, which is logical. So a Queen sacrifice seems reasonable, even if it is out of necessity instead of by design. It is simply that it will hurt as much as it oftentimes does on the board. It could turn out to be a losing proposition.

I can certainly understand the fear of giving the Alignment endless amounts of time to tinker and plot. It really could turn out to be even more detrimental to the Galaxy's health.

There is no way the Alignment will know if the GA continues to search for them, so that demand has a foregone conclusion. But I don't think Beth should be sacrificed over these demands. Especially if you do not know where to find the lair. If you do, then do what you must. I'm not onboard with it, but I understand the decision.