Topic Actions

Topic Search

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests

Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy

Join us in talking discussing all things Honor, including (but not limited to) tactics, favorite characters, and book discussions.
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by Relax   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:45 pm

Relax
Admiral

Posts: 2922
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:18 pm

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Relax wrote:I used to agree with you on this point regarding SD top heavy bloat... until UH came out and the SLN has 4000 BC... At which point, who needs DD's???? Why bother if you only have 1800 core system and a couple thousand protectorates. Of course in same UH, we are told the SLN has FAR more DD's than BC's...

Pretty sure my eyes did not go cross eyes when reading that part in UH... I do remembering reading those passages several times because I literally could not believe it...


The SKM used to have something between 250 and 400 DDs for two systems (Manticore and Basilisk).

We have a gargantuan MASSIVE difference.
Manticore has more merchant marine traffic than nearly the ENTIRE SL...
ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:[1] If the wiki is to be believed; I couldn't quickly find the RFC fleet strength posting. Though based on the HoS numbers having 199 BCs pre-war implies that nearly all 118 of the old Redoubtable-class BCs must have still been in service, as there were only 86 Homers built to date, and the first Reliants were only just starting to enter service when the war started.


Thanks for reminding us that that existed! Link:

Fleet Strengths as of 1905PD

So the RMN had 485 DDs before the first war and another ~300 of both CL and CAs, which is what it mostly used for commerce protection. Since that's what the League should have been focusing on, I'd indeed say they were understrength.

The SL has 1800x more systems than the old SKM and 1000x more population.


SL has more than 1800 systems as that # is ONLY core voting systems. Not the protectorates at minimum which are VERY numerous.
Jonathan_S wrote:
Relax wrote:I used to agree with you on this point regarding SD top heavy bloat... until UH came out and the SLN has 4000 BC... At which point, who needs DD's???? Why bother if you only have 1800 core system and a couple thousand protectorates. Of course in same UH, we are told the SLN has FAR more DD's than BC's...

Pretty sure my eyes did not go cross eyes when reading that part in UH... I do remembering reading those passages several times because I literally could not believe it...

Well, the RMN, pre-war, as a 3 planet polity, had 199 BCs[1]. It doesn't seem overburdened with BCs for 900 times more systems to have 20 times more BCs. Especially since many of them were employed beyond that 1800 system core.

Uncompromising Honor wrote:“Five T-months ago, Battle Fleet and Frontier Fleet between them had four thousand four hundred and twelve in active commission and four hundred and sixty undergoing routine overhaul,”
[snip]we were at least twenty percent understrength for our peacetime missions in the Verge and Fringe.
[snip]
Since that time, we’ve lost in excess of four hundred of those ships—and their crews


And with the SLN having over 10,000 SDs (admittedly about 8,000 of them in the Reserve) 4,000 active commission BCs both sounds like a lot relative to the active commission SDs but not a lot relative to everything the SLN might need lighter units to do.

For comparison, pre-war, in the RMN the 199 BCs only made up about 15% of the 1312 below the wall combatants; (despite the RMN having a BC focused doctrine!).

So yeah, it seems they were having to deploy BCs on CL and DD missions


That almost sounds plausible except we are ALSO told that 95% of the SL core worlds have nothing heavier than a DD/LAC and only a ~dozen or so planets who even have a squadron of SD's in the SL and another ~dozen or so planetary systems who have a squadron of SD's who are not in the SL of which Manticore, Haven, Andermani, Grayson, Erewhon are 5 of said planets.

So, we have SL 2400SD + 4400BC's that we know of who are doing NOTHING sitting in a couple giant military depots. FF, also we know has nothing heavier than BC, yet have very few BC's. All of whom add up to MANY times the total SD's everyone else has, and the ratio of SLN BC to everyone else's BC's is even greater :shock: We should literally see SLN BC's swanning around everywhere. Yet we are told FF doesn't have enough ships :? So which is it?

In short, we have conundrums all over the place. Either Total number of planets is WOEFULLY low, and why I published ~15,000 or so is the actual number that maybe DW has changed it to over time?, or the SLN is so bloated by corruption to build all the white elephants which are ancient it makes ones mind water even though there is no threat from ANYONE even if 100% of everyone decides to rebel all at the same time. :twisted:
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:49 pm

Jonathan_S
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 7209
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:01 pm
Location: Virginia, USA

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Thanks for reminding us that that existed! Link:

Fleet Strengths as of 1905PD

Fleet Strengths as of 1920PD

So the RMN had 485 DDs before the first war and another ~300 of both CL and CAs, which is what it mostly used for commerce protection. Since that's what the League should have been focusing on, I'd indeed say they were understrength.

Oh, of course they were on the infodump site. /facepalm
Hopefully next time I'll not only remember that they exists, but also where they are.

Actually, the RMN had to focus more on commerce protection because its merchant marine traded in dangerous areas (like Silesia -- The piracy hotspot of the known universe).
We're told in Shadows of Saganami that a "smaller percentage of the Solly merchant marine worked in high-risk environments like Silesia or deep into the Verge".
In that case it was explaining why League ship designers optimized their freighter designs for cargo capacity and flexibility at the expense of survivability; but you don't need very many destroyers to do trade protection on ships that spend their whole careers within the Core and Shell. In there even a squadron or two of old LACs in one of those system is more than enough to convince any pirates that there are better places to hunt.

(Now if the League was actually worried about commerce raiding in a shooting war then, yeah, they'd need a lot more light units to act as nodal response units to react to that -- as a naval commerce raiding force would be able to punch out some old LACs and capture or destroy whatever freighters showed up afterwards. But that's clearly not something the League ever seriously considered)

For anti-piracy if you can secure the normal space in and around each system that freighter move between then you only need hyper capable commerce protection for the rare in-hyper choke point (like the Selker rift), or to react should any pirate with more firepower than sense try to hunt despite the local LAC forces. So probably 75+% of the League merchant marine is probably fine without devoting any SLN units towards their commerce protection. You would want some as you go deeper into the Verge, though that varies as there are systems out there that are more than capable of keeping pirates out. (After all, Manticore, Haven, and the Andermani are all out in the Verge).

But I'm not sure how many systems would tempt League shippers to come all the way out there, that aren't either capable of dealing with pirates on their own, or are already under OFS/FF 'protection' and hence already likely to have SLN FF ships keeping an eye on the place. Sure, they may be there more to help discourage any attempt to get out from under that 'protection' but they're unlikely to turn down a spot of pirate swatting if given the chance.
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:19 pm

ThinksMarkedly
Admiral

Posts: 2468
Joined: Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:39 am

Jonathan_S wrote:Actually, the RMN had to focus more on commerce protection because its merchant marine traded in dangerous areas (like Silesia -- The piracy hotspot of the known universe).
We're told in Shadows of Saganami that a "smaller percentage of the Solly merchant marine worked in high-risk environments like Silesia or deep into the Verge".
In that case it was explaining why League ship designers optimized their freighter designs for cargo capacity and flexibility at the expense of survivability; but you don't need very many destroyers to do trade protection on ships that spend their whole careers within the Core and Shell. In there even a squadron or two of old LACs in one of those system is more than enough to convince any pirates that there are better places to hunt.


Right, so the size of the RMN for commerce protection compared to the SLN has absolutely nothing to do with population, wealth or number of systems.

The RMN has two huge factors going for it, possibly a third if you count it as separate than the second.

First and the most obvious, is that the SKM before and the SEM now are disproportionately represented in carrying trade, due to the Junction. Manticore-flagged ships and thus under the protection of the RMN were just about everywhere, because they paid less dues at the Junction. And this was a synergistic effect: because they paid less in fees, there was more of them, which boosted the local shipbuilding industry and the freight concerns, which lowered their operating costs, causing more of them to be built.

Wasn't it mentioned somewhere that about one-third of all cargo transported inside the League had at least one leg on a Manticore-flagged vessel?

Second, as you mentioned, the RMN had to protect against Silesia pirates, whereas no one else except their neighbours the Andermani had to. That's a far more difficult task than securing commerce routes inside the League or going elsewhere (say, to Erewhon). Especially if you add the frequent warlord and "missing" SCN warship that fell into their hands. These are not your run-of-the-mill pirates that operate a rowboat with a deck gun bolted on. We're talking serious warships with crews having often had military service (often aboard those same ships).

The maybe third point that is a consequence of the second is that the RMN and the IAN had to project that force away from home. Unlike everywhere else that a LAC would do, the RMN and the IAN needed hypercapable ships and often with long legs. DDs could do the Manticore-Gregor-Silesia-Basilisk-Manticore circuit and therefore could serve as military escort, but the RMN (not the IAN) needed CLs and up for patrolling. When Honor was CO of Sidemore Station, she sent her Saganami-As on patrol (granted, at this time there was also the danger of PN exiles with even bigger ships than SCN ones).

Which reminds me, who was Jessica Epps? I wonder if we'll be told her story on one of the Travis books.
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by Relax   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 8:57 pm

Relax
Admiral

Posts: 2922
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:18 pm

ThinksMarkedly wrote:First and the most obvious, is that the SKM before and the SEM now are disproportionately represented in carrying trade,

Wasn't it mentioned somewhere that about one-third of all cargo transported inside the League had at least one leg on a Manticore-flagged vessel?


Quote is from ART right after Carmichael talks to Head blatherer for SL. From memory... nm looked it up

30% of all SL trade went 100% of the distance in a Manticoran ship. 27% for 30-->50% Another 10-->15% for a quarter of the way. 2/3 of all SL shipping touches manticoran shipping.

Another quote where Manticoran shipping utterly dominates the Verge.

Hrmm, does anyone know the historical average of Warships:Merchant Marine ratio? I have read it somewhere and that today the ratio is VERY LOW compared to before WWII. How that directly relates to Honorverse would IMO indicate that the ratio of today should somewhat be closely tied to that of the HV as the HV has been at peace relatively speaking until VERY recently.

Today world has roughly ~1000 warships and roughly speaking 40,000 Merchant Marine.

So if SLN has nearly 7000 capital ships in active commission and probably around 10,000 lower class ships that we know of and Haven/Manticore have thousands themselves as the larger of exterior navies = 20k warships in HV... @40:1 ratio ~= 8 Million Merchant ships not counting dispatch boats etc.

Uh, how many planets are there to use ~8MILLION merchant marine???

PS: If 8 Million ships and Manticore owns 4 Million of them and 50% are built at home with 200 Tyr lifespans = Manticore should have an active build rate of 10,000 civilian ships a year.... WTH could they barely build a 1000 new warships in a war to the fighting death over 10 years? Enquiring minds want to know
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:21 pm

Jonathan_S
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 7209
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 2:01 pm
Location: Virginia, USA

Relax wrote:Hrmm, does anyone know the historical average of Warships:Merchant Marine ratio? I have read it somewhere and that today the ratio is VERY LOW compared to before WWII. How that directly relates to Honorverse would IMO indicate that the ratio of today should somewhat be closely tied to that of the HV as the HV has been at peace relatively speaking until VERY recently.

Well the US is in the ahistorical and weird position of having nearly as many navy ship as there are civilian merchant marine ships.

The US civilian merchant marine is apparently an entire 393 vessels; while the USN has 250 active warships, plus another 103 active support non-warships (not counting reserves)

On the other hand in the very early days of the US there were a lot of US civilian ships (merchants, whalers, and the like) with a handful during the revolution, then about a decade with none, finally followed by the building of the famous 6 frigates.

But the US probably isn't the best nation to look at for that as it came on the scene quite late - for most of its existence it's ships were able to freeload off the rights of neutrals (to some degree enforced by the Royal Navy) and relatively low levels of piracy in most of the worlds oceans (thanks to the efforts of other navies). Then during and after WWII the USN got (and remained) huge, but the US merchant marine shriveled away as it couldn't, or at least didn't, remain cost competitive.
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 9:41 pm

ThinksMarkedly
Admiral

Posts: 2468
Joined: Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:39 am

Relax wrote:Hrmm, does anyone know the historical average of Warships:Merchant Marine ratio? I have read it somewhere and that today the ratio is VERY LOW compared to before WWII. How that directly relates to Honorverse would IMO indicate that the ratio of today should somewhat be closely tied to that of the HV as the HV has been at peace relatively speaking until VERY recently.

Today world has roughly ~1000 warships and roughly speaking 40,000 Merchant Marine.


We also have satellites that offer real-time coverage of the entire globe. You can't sneak a warship on an unsuspecting merchant and you can't get away with it either: the entire world will know this has been done. If we were in war, those same satellites could provide early warning of someone coming. Plus we have cruise missiles that mean military escorts are effectively unnecessary in most routes.

The HV is more like WWII and often even before that (no subs).

So if SLN has nearly 7000 capital ships in active commission and probably around 10,000 lower class ships that we know of and Haven/Manticore have thousands themselves as the larger of exterior navies = 20k warships in HV... @40:1 ratio ~= 8 Million Merchant ships not counting dispatch boats etc.

Uh, how many planets are there to use ~8MILLION merchant marine???


Probably something like 20000, meaning that there are 400 ships per planet on average, including the boon-docks.

If the Junction does one ship every 3 minutes for every hour of every day, that's 480 ships per day per wormhole. Not all termini are going to see the same traffic, so let's say it's 400 times 4, so 1600 ships coming into Manticore every day and 1600 others leaving (net zero). But if it takes 5 days turnaround time to dock, unload, reload, depart, we're talking 8000 ships in the Junction area, which is 20x the average, plus whatever is in the two star systems at any given moment.

Yes, the MBS is the far outlier, but it's only an order of magnitude above the average. The median is probably far lower.

On the other hand, we know the population of the Settled Galaxy is probably around 10 trillion, so we're talking 1 ship per 1.25 million people. That sounds more reasonable.

To be frank, I don't even know how to begin to estimate if this is a high or low number. These are wild guesses.

PS: If 8 Million ships and Manticore owns 4 Million of them and 50% are built at home with 200 Tyr lifespans = Manticore should have an active build rate of 10,000 civilian ships a year.... WTH could they barely build a 1000 new warships in a war to the fighting death over 10 years? Enquiring minds want to know


4 million sounds high, but not if you say that over 50% of the trade to over 4 trillion people go in one of those hulls (SL core is 3 trillion, so if you add all the non-Core trade, of which Manticore has a larger proportion of, I guess 5 trillion is in the right ballpark; plus or minus a handful of trillions). That's again 1 ship per million people.
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by Relax   » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:00 pm

Relax
Admiral

Posts: 2922
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:18 pm

Yup TM, more questions than answers.

Same conclusion as we had 10 years ago when this subject last came up I do believe. :o :D
_________
Tally Ho!
Relax
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by kzt   » Fri Nov 19, 2021 2:23 pm

kzt
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 10768
Joined: Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:18 pm
Location: Albuquerque, NM

The SL doesn't seem to do commerce protection. They don't need to. There are basically no threats to commerce in SL space. When was the last time a ship was pirated in US/EU waters? Same deal.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
So the RMN had 485 DDs before the first war and another ~300 of both CL and CAs, which is what it mostly used for commerce protection. Since that's what the League should have been focusing on, I'd indeed say they were understrength.

The SL has 1800x more systems than the old SKM and 1000x more population. But the metric we should be looking at is commerce participation. The RMN was 1/20th the size of the SLN in BCs, but between 1/10th and 1/8th below that, does this mean the RMMS was about 1/10th the size of ALL the SL merchant marine?
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:31 pm

ThinksMarkedly
Admiral

Posts: 2468
Joined: Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:39 am

kzt wrote:The SL doesn't seem to do commerce protection. They don't need to. There are basically no threats to commerce in SL space. When was the last time a ship was pirated in US/EU waters? Same deal.


Oh, the last time there were pirates in the Mediterranean, there may have still been Roman Legions around (or irreducible Gauls who kept sinking the pirates' ship). There's a reason there's no "Pirates of the Mediterranean" Disney ride :)

Though there have been Viking raiders in the North Sea less than a thousand years ago, and of course there have been corsairs and privateers in European waters much more recently.

But that's indeed the point: the RMN and IAN fleet size for commerce protection has absolutely no correlation to the population size or system age.
Top
Re: Building the BSDF into the Beowulf Space Navy
Post by tlb   » Fri Nov 19, 2021 4:02 pm

tlb
Admiral

Posts: 2242
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 11:34 am

kzt wrote:The SL doesn't seem to do commerce protection. They don't need to. There are basically no threats to commerce in SL space. When was the last time a ship was pirated in US/EU waters? Same deal.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Oh, the last time there were pirates in the Mediterranean, there may have still been Roman Legions around (or irreducible Gauls who kept sinking the pirates' ship). There's a reason there's no "Pirates of the Mediterranean" Disney ride :)

Though there have been Viking raiders in the North Sea less than a thousand years ago, and of course there have been corsairs and privateers in European waters much more recently.

But that's indeed the point: the RMN and IAN fleet size for commerce protection has absolutely no correlation to the population size or system age.

The US Navy fought pirates in the Mediterranean during the Jefferson Presidency (1805); which is why the Marine hymn has the line "from the halls of Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli". Most European nations simply paid them to leave their ships alone.

According to the Wikipedia article on Barbary Pirates:"The threat was finally subdued by the French conquest of Algeria in 1830 and subsequent pacification by the French during the mid-to-late 19th Century".
Top

Return to Honorverse