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Attacking Darius:

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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by cthia   » Wed Aug 18, 2021 3:30 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:
My opinion seems to differ quite a bit about how easy it should be to attack Darius.

I don't know about you, but I am having nightmares about a Home System that makes the perimeter that the MBS has established look like a Boy Scout Camp.


I don't think that's either possible or likely.

The MBS defences are nothing to sneeze at. To make them look pale in comparison requires such a great amount of firepower and sensing technologies that it would be inconceivable in the HV. We'd be talking about the single most industrialised system in the Galaxy, equivalent to 20 core systems, and populated for less than 2 centuries. it also requires a much larger population base than there is on Darius. And a much larger shipyard than we know is there.


The MBS defenses are impressive, by the Haven System's standards, no doubt.

But, surprise can be a force multiplier. Total stealth is also a force multiplier. The Apollo System taught us how unprecedented tech can be a force multiplier by being a game changer. The MA has all of this and more in its toolbox. And the GA has yet to engage them even once to gain experience. When all of those multipliers add up, the scales will begin to tip.

And, the GA's sensing technology is all but useless behind enemy lines. That great big huge monstrosity of a system defence spider drive detector is -- well, I'm proposing -- tethered to the MBS.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:24 pm

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cthia wrote:But, surprise can be a force multiplier. Total stealth is also a force multiplier. The Apollo System taught us how unprecedented tech can be a force multiplier by being a game changer. The MA has all of this and more in its toolbox. And the GA has yet to engage them even once to gain experience. When all of those multipliers add up, the scales will begin to tip.


I repeat stealth in defences has reduced effectiveness if you must park those assets close to a specific location. The attacking force doesn't need to know where it is, only that there may be something there. Send a lot of Ghost Riders close, way closer than the stealth should protect. There's good chance of burn through with an active scanner at 20,000 km. And you can't fire at the GR: every source of weapons is an emplacement you've revealed. The main force does not need to be anywhere near the target: the GF can send a DDron and LACs to shepherd the drones, but keep the main force 5 million km out and in constant motion.

Heck, they can fire grasers sweeping past the planet towards what looks like empty space and they may hit something. If the defences are as thick as you're proposing, there's a good chance it'll happen.

Assets further out aren't of use if they can't intercept the attackers in time. The GA may not know this yet, but we and the Onion do know that their spider ships' acceleration is very low compared to the ships those must defend the planet against.

This defence won't be with ships. It may be with pre-deployed graser torpedoes like Silver Bullets, though those have even worse acceleration due to their reduced size. And like I said earlier in this thread, you're going to need a 5:1 ratio in order to guarantee kills, so some 2500 torpedoes in system.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by munroburton   » Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:10 pm

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Theemile wrote:
tlb wrote:Isn't that an assumption which you are making? Everything that I have read indicates that you need to have sails to move safely in hyperspace. So then they would also have the sails needed to transit a wormhole.


Sails are required for Grav Waves and wormholes. (all the wormhole descriptions we have been given include a transition to sails just as before translation.)

Hyperspace, outside of grav waves, can be crossed with impellers, and not sails - see HAE, the battle of Selker Rift and LACS and shuttles moving about in hyper.

When exiting a wormhole, you exit with a sail and a no acceleration - you just glide along the Emergence lane. Impellers cannot be used and will burn out - while we do not have cannon, it is implied that the spider is unusable as well (no acceleration in an emergence lane)

When asking David if the spider could use a wormhole, he replied with something akin to "Who said it can't" (implying that spider vessels can, in fact use a wormhole.) but the mechanics of it were not discussed (secondary alpha rings on rams, the spider can reconfigure into a sail, all new tech.? no clue and not mentioned)


Indeed, "calm" hyperspace can be navigated without even impeller drive - the earliest hyper explorers used reaction-thrust ships. The impeller drive prior to Warshawski's two inventions actually made exploring hyper more dangerous, since the faster ships kept running into shear forces they couldn't detect in time to avoid.

Sails certainly make hyperspace travel economical(as well as unlocking star systems in the middle of grav waves), but it seems to be more the gravity scanner she invented which made hyperspace travel safer, in combination with refined hyper logs(which seem to be a collection of "we exited here and survived" notes).
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:16 pm

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munroburton wrote:Indeed, "calm" hyperspace can be navigated without even impeller drive - the earliest hyper explorers used reaction-thrust ships. The impeller drive prior to Warshawski's two inventions actually made exploring hyper more dangerous, since the faster ships kept running into shear forces they couldn't detect in time to avoid.


That's not restricted to impeller-driven ships. The impeller wasn't invented until 1246, when Joseph Buckley managed to get himself killed using his invention. Hyperspace was known since 725 PD, but the colony ship Jason left the Sol System in sublight in 775 PD because it wasn't safe to go via hyper.

Sails certainly make hyperspace travel economical(as well as unlocking star systems in the middle of grav waves), but it seems to be more the gravity scanner she invented which made hyperspace travel safer, in combination with refined hyper logs(which seem to be a collection of "we exited here and survived" notes).


Both inventions bear her name: Warshawski Sails make it economical and makes some systems accessible, Warshawskis make it safe.

The hyperlog is just about navigation. Without it, you could simply drop back to normal space and get bearings again, then go back into hyper. Of course, before the impeller drive, that was probably prohibitive because a ship couldn't carry enough reaction mass to keep crossing the hyper walls.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by cthia   » Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:17 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:But, surprise can be a force multiplier. Total stealth is also a force multiplier. The Apollo System taught us how unprecedented tech can be a force multiplier by being a game changer. The MA has all of this and more in its toolbox. And the GA has yet to engage them even once to gain experience. When all of those multipliers add up, the scales will begin to tip.


I repeat stealth in defences has reduced effectiveness if you must park those assets close to a specific location. The attacking force doesn't need to know where it is, only that there may be something there. Send a lot of Ghost Riders close, way closer than the stealth should protect. There's good chance of burn through with an active scanner at 20,000 km. And you can't fire at the GR: every source of weapons is an emplacement you've revealed. The main force does not need to be anywhere near the target: the GF can send a DDron and LACs to shepherd the drones, but keep the main force 5 million km out and in constant motion.

Heck, they can fire grasers sweeping past the planet towards what looks like empty space and they may hit something. If the defences are as thick as you're proposing, there's a good chance it'll happen.

Assets further out aren't of use if they can't intercept the attackers in time. The GA may not know this yet, but we and the Onion do know that their spider ships' acceleration is very low compared to the ships those must defend the planet against.

This defence won't be with ships. It may be with pre-deployed graser torpedoes like Silver Bullets, though those have even worse acceleration due to their reduced size. And like I said earlier in this thread, you're going to need a 5:1 ratio in order to guarantee kills, so some 2500 torpedoes in system.

I don't know where you're getting this, but it just isn't true. However, I'm not sure if it's simply not true in our application or simply not true in general.

If protecting the WH is the object of your argument, then those invisible weapons can be placed anywhere. They don't have to hang around the WH. It isn't like the MA has to worry about any arrogant flies actually transiting the WH -- into the nests of awaiting Spiders. The Silver Bullets can converge on the enemy anytime and as slow as it pleases. The enemy is trapped against the beachhead, er, WH.

And, GR drones don't grow on trees. They are going to begin to disappear in enormous numbers. Sure, that will alert the GA that the waters are infested, but what can be done? Space is big. Desperation launches that are shooting blind is just a waste of missiles. And the GA will not be operating in its own backyard. It will have to rely on Colliers that may be destroyed. That goes double for attacking Darius. The GA has to make sure it packs a lot of luggage for the trip. They have to make sure it brings along enough of the right equipment. After all, they will have to go the long way around to attack Darius.

But, what are these waters infested with? Silver Bullets? Sharks? Spiders? A plethora of invisible energy platforms that can be built in enormous numbers?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:So I fail to see the purpose of a spider-driven fort.

Really?

I'll go out on a limb and say that most navies would rather steer clear of a Fort of any kind. Imagine that you have just found out that you've managed to maneuver yourself right into a shell of invisible Forts. May heaven help you, cause hell sure ain't gonna.

And, how do you figure such a ratio will be needed for 3-second-firing grasers that might even take the enemy by surprise.

And, 2500? This is the HV! That many missiles is simply the opening bid! And who says they have to be pre-deployed. The invisible Collier(s) could have been pre-deployed.

And there's more. The Silver Bullets might enjoy a very extended operating time way beyond weeks if they rendezvous with an invisible support ship.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by munroburton   » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:37 am

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cthia wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:So I fail to see the purpose of a spider-driven fort.

Really?

I'll go out on a limb and say that most navies would rather steer clear of a Fort of any kind. Imagine that you have just found out that you've managed to maneuver yourself right into a shell of invisible Forts. May heaven help you, cause hell sure ain't gonna.


The thing is, a spider-drive fort would be indistinguishable from a spider-drive ship. All of them regardless of total mass are limited by their gravity plating to exactly the same accelerations.

It's not like impeller forts vs impeller ships, where a lot of tradeoffs take place. A spider fort would simply be a spider ship without a hyper generator, unable to leave the system it was constructed in. What has it gained with that trade-off, that a hyper-capable spider ship doesn't have?
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by cthia   » Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:35 pm

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I am beginning to see why my opinion differs quite a bit about how easy it should be to attack Darius.

Everyone is making one of the most common thus frequent mistakes on the forum. Time and time again it is reproduced. But, when attacking Darius this mistake could be fatal. Very well will be.

Attacking Darius is taking on a completely different paradigm in tactical and strategic planning. You cannot treat the MAN as if it is a traditional navy. Because it isn't. Everything will be different. You cannot judge a MAN by his clothing, or his attire by your closet. Case in point, let's address a major wound ...

Acceleration:

cthia wrote:Massive Forts w/ Spider Drive
-- Surrounded by shoals of system defense graser pods.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Those are likely, but no more so than there would be in the MBS, except for the spider. The spider itself is not a gain here, since the fort is still limited to paltry acceleration in the order of 100 gravities. That's 2x more than a Manticoran fort, but nothing compared to the ships flying rings around it.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:The problem again with the spider is how slow they are compared to a wedge. A graser torpedo is going to be manoeuvring around 50 gravities, while the ships they're tracking are moving at 550+. Those ships are also getting screened by LACs that can get up to 800.

Gentlemen, you have just hypered into a system that turns its weaknesses into strengths. This system has formulated its tactics and strategy around its own technology and not around the wedges of enemies. When you hyper into the Darius System you cannot expect the tactical situation to resemble anything outside of that system.

And, you cannot fly rings around emplacements that you cannot see.

Plus! This system uses the enemies strengths against them. This system turns the enemy's higher accel into a liability. When warships are pulling five hundred gravities they can't instantly alter their bearing like a dogfighter. And an enemy that has totally infested its system with invisible system defense pods and invisible forts and Spiders will have those weapons emplaced at very specific strategic positions to ward off the much quicker but far more clumsier flies flying blind. Have you ever played the game of Fox & Geese? Making the right move - strategic and methodical - traps the fox every time.

I would imagine that while Forts may enjoy specific positions of mutual support, Spiders also crawl to specific predefined locations at the first sign of invasion. Spiders and Forts don't need to be quicker, just smarter. As long as those faster ships don't outrun the calculated engagement range of the Spiders plus their graser torps. That is what I meant by ...

cthia wrote:Massive Graser Installations
--They don't even have to have much mobility, because they are built in enormous numbers. When you have invisible weapons platforms seeded throughout your system, you can maneuver and engage the enemy with those invisible installations in mind, thus setting a trap.


Head them off at the pass! These are Alphas, they run a tighter ship.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:06 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Massive Forts w/ Spider Drive
-- Surrounded by shoals of system defense graser pods.


Those are likely, but no more so than there would be in the MBS, except for the spider. The spider itself is not a gain here, since the fort is still limited to paltry acceleration in the order of 100 gravities. That's 2x more than a Manticoran fort, but nothing compared to the ships flying rings around it.

But there doesn't seem to be much of a difference between a fort and an LD. Maybe the difference is whether it mounts a hyperdrive (and streak drives are big) and impeller rings for the Warshawski sail so they can transit through wormholes. Therefore, the non-hypercapable version of the LD (a corvette?) could free up some internal volume to be rededicated to missiles or torpedoes.

But is that worth it? A defender can't rely on stealth to sneak up on the enemy, they have to be around the objective they're defending. Those spider emitters on their hull are also surface that they can't have a missile tube on. Plus, the moment they raise the bubble wall, the stealth is gone.

So I fail to see the purpose of a spider-driven fort. It's much cheaper and useful to have a regular fort, maybe with no propulsion other than thrusters.

I think its even worse that you said. Spider drives are extremely volume intensive and (as far as we know) force the ships into elongated hull forms with at least 3 long keels sticking out to mount the large number of projectors necessary to achieve even minimal Honorverse accelerations.

But we're told the main reason forts can fight several times their mass in warships is that by omitting the alpha nodes they can achieve a much more spherical hull form and use all that extra surface area to mount many more weapons and sensors that can see and act in all directions. A fort with spider propulsion seem -- by the very nature of that propulsion -- to be much more like an oversize spider ship corvette. You lose the hyperdrive, but the propulsion is still taking up lots of surface area and forcing you into specific and sub-optimal hull shape.


I kind of doubt that's worth the advantages of a "fort" that can sneak around at low accel without easily being seen. Ton for ton it doesn't seem like there'd be any reason for us to believe it to be significantly more effective than a Lenny Det. So might as well just build more of the more flexible hyper capable ships.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Jonathan_S   » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:12 pm

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cthia wrote::o Take the terminus? You're a rather ambitious warmonger aren't you? You think taking on a WH whose fortification has been progressing for centuries will be possible? Against invisible - weapons and naval components? And I certainly hope you are not planning your attack through the WH itself? The Spiders in their nests will get you. :D

The system was founded about 200 years ago (early part of hte 18th century PD; and they're now up to the early part of the 20th). But it needed time to build up its economy.

And while having unknowing slaves focused on industrialization over quality of life improvements should make it more productive than any other self-funded single-system entity; the MAlign isn't going to have access to the rivers of cash the Manticoran Junction was generating. So they're very unlikely to have as much economic muscle to play with as the old SKM (though yes, they should be able to devote a much higher percentage to industrialization - and later to militarization).

But the weapons you need to defend the wormhole -- ones able to counter the MDMs (which themselves have only existed for about 9 years) or Apollo (only existed for about 1-2 years) haven't existed for long. So against an enemy attacking the Darius wormhole from hyper essentially no weapon that the MAlign might have built over the proceeding 190 years will be of much help. Only the newest weapons will be useful as the GA fleet has no reason to stray into range of older weapons. So you're looking at what Darius could build as defenses -- in addition to the Ghost, Sharks, and Lenny Dets they were already using much of their yard space for lately -- in less than the last decade.
And place that against what Manticore, Haven's yards (including the massive Bolthole yard, Beowulf, Grayson, and the Andermani could build in that same time. Economically and industrially that collection dwarfs anything a single system, any single system, can produce. And the military revolution almost entirely negates any advantage the MAlign might have gained from a head start.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:30 pm

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cthia wrote:If protecting the WH is the object of your argument, then those invisible weapons can be placed anywhere. They don't have to hang around the WH. It isn't like the MA has to worry about any arrogant flies actually transiting the WH -- into the nests of awaiting Spiders. The Silver Bullets can converge on the enemy anytime and as slow as it pleases. The enemy is trapped against the beachhead, er, WH.


When you reply to an old post, you need to look up the context. In that particular case, I was talking about defending the planet, not the WH, though the same applies.

In order to defend a fixed target, the defences must be somewhat close to it, so they can react in time to an attacker. If you park it 1 billion km away (1 light-hour), it can't do anything but cry over spilt milk once it gets to the scene.

How close is the question. The MAN is very well aware of how quickly their ships can move. Their biggest ships can sustain 250 gravities for a few minutes, 150 indefinitely. The smaller ones as well as the torpedoes have much lower acceleration. Let's say Darius has a 22 LM hyperlimit and Darius Gamma is at 8, just to have some numbers. An enemy arriving at any point on the hyperlimit is anywhere between 22-8 and 22+8 LM from the planet. At 550 gravities, that's a 228 to 333-minute transit time for a zero-zero with the planet. An LD could cover between 137 million to 293 million km in that period, but it would be flying past the target at up to 0.1c and would take another 5 hours to turn around to re-engage.

The discussions we've had are that the defending forces would like to intercept the attacking forces well short of the planet, at a shallow angle. The problem for the defending forces is generating that intercept, given that they don't know where the attackers would be coming from and what zig-zag course those will be taking. A smart attacker would begin moving in one direction, forcing the defenders to react, then double back and go on another direction. Now the defenders have to kill their velocity vector in one direction before going on the other. Please note the attackers don't need to know about the acceleration limits of the defenders nor do they have to see the defenders. What matters is that the MAN knows their own limits and knows how quickly they can get those defenders to an intercept position.

Which is why I am saying they can't be too far away. An LD force can cover 104 million km (barely 5.8 light-minutes) from standing start to zero-zero. Assuming it wants to intercept the attackers at 2 light-minutes from the planet (36 million km), that means the defending forces must be no farther than 68 million km.

And, GR drones don't grow on trees. They are going to begin to disappear in enormous numbers. Sure, that will alert the GA that the waters are infested, but what can be done? Space is big. Desperation launches that are shooting blind is just a waste of missiles. And the GA will not be operating in its own backyard. It will have to rely on Colliers that may be destroyed. That goes double for attacking Darius. The GA has to make sure it packs a lot of luggage for the trip. They have to make sure it brings along enough of the right equipment. After all, they will have to go the long way around to attack Darius.


GRs don't grow on trees, but neither do SDs. And GRs are FAR, FAR cheaper than an SD. So, yes, bring loads of them. Expend them as necessary. If it takes 100 lost GRs to save each SD, it's still a good trade-off. I'd do exactly what White Haven said after OB: "we'll immediately saturate the space around it with grav-pulse com-coordinated scout ships and deploy remote sensor platforms in a shell dense enough for someone to walk across." (MoH, ch. 30)

But, what are these waters infested with? Silver Bullets? Sharks? Spiders? A plethora of invisible energy platforms that can be built in enormous numbers?


That's a good question. I suppose all of the above, with a number inversely proportional to their size and cost to build. So far more pre-deployed torpedoes like Silver Bullets, several squadrons of Sharks, a few squadrons of capital ships.

In 1930.

I'll go out on a limb and say that most navies would rather steer clear of a Fort of any kind. Imagine that you have just found out that you've managed to maneuver yourself right into a shell of invisible Forts. May heaven help you, cause hell sure ain't gonna.


See all of the above about placing assets close to where they are needed.

By definition, a fort is a mostly fixed asset. It's not a mobile asset -- that would be called a capital ship. So I don't see the point of adding spider drive to a fort that isn't supposed to go much of anywhere.

A conventional fort with wedge down is as stealthy as a spider-driven fort. In both the case where they have their bubble walls down (very stealthy) and up (not stealthy at all). Therefore, don't spend your asset's surface in spider tractors, but on missile tubes.

And, 2500? This is the HV! That many missiles is simply the opening bid! And who says they have to be pre-deployed. The invisible Collier(s) could have been pre-deployed.

And there's more. The Silver Bullets might enjoy a very extended operating time way beyond weeks if they rendezvous with an invisible support ship.


Graser torpedoes are far more expensive than missiles. They brought 9 torpedoes (IIRC) to Manticore A.

As for pre-deploying, see the discussion above on being in range of your target. Besides, loading them onto an invisible collier that is in range is the same thing as pre-deploying for me.
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