cthia wrote:I'm not suggesting the MA seed any systems with torpedoes. Well, unless that system is somehow important to them. I'm talking about the type of assistance that comes along from time to time from a being called Murphy. And sometimes from a thing called Providence. I am assuming the MAN conduct wargames and exercises in nearby systems as well as any other navy. I'm talking about rotten RMN luck causing them to haphazardly stumble upon a Spider infected system.
I am simply pointing out the number of things that can go wrong for the GA when attacking Darius. It won't be anything like business as usual.
Even Murphy obeys the laws of statistic. The chance that the GF chooses to stage on a system which is one that the MAN is interested in is already minimal, maybe 1:100. For that to be a system that the MAN there at the same time with a non-permanent presence drops the chances to what, 1 in 10000?
Plus, I don't think the MAN exercises outside of Darius... because you can make the argument the other way around and there could accidentally be someone else observing. They'd only exercise on a system they know no one is close enough to observe, which means one with an FTL detection grid. I'd be surprised if they have that anywhere but Darius, but definitely not more than 3 systems total. The GF wouldn't stage in such a system because they'd see the detection grid.
At any rate, about that empty space thing. There is no way the GA can be assured that anywhere is "empty space" once they boldly go where no non-Mesan has ever gone before. Sure, the GA can choose a safe place in the "known" Galaxy. But they will still want to check in with the fleet once they near Darius. The supply train could have developed engine problems. Anything.
The chance of being in range of one another if one just chooses empty space is negligible.
If your horizon of visibility with
ships is a cubic light-day (and it isn't), remember that there are 365.25^3 cubic light-days in a cubic-light-year. That's 48,727,112.2.
Like I said, even Murphy obeys statistics.
And besides, what are they going to do? If the MAN detects the GF staging nearby, the best they can do is bolt home and warn the defences to be ready. The GF would do well to assume the defences are ready until they actually cross the alpha wall and determine they aren't.