Attacking Darius:

cthia wrote:You don't send LDs to infiltrate an enemy system to wait for an opportunity. They are there to attack. They are there to kick the ever loving crap out of the system. By comparison, the Yawatta Strike was a love tap.

Well, exactly. So what is their primary mission and how would it be accomplished?

I'm asking because this opportunity for an attack we're discussing here has to be of meaningful magnitude compared to the primary mission, otherwise the LDs would never break cover to attack. They would have continued to wait to do what they came to do in the first place, because once they kick the hornet's nest, the entire system goes on alert, closing their window of attack for the other mission.

And this other mission must also have a meaningful chance of success, within a reasonable time frame. It can't be waiting for an opportunity that may never happen, or depending on the enemy being dumb.

And if I were responsible for this "Operation Nemesis (?)," I wouldn't send just enough LDs. There will be a few extra which have secondary targets. And after some specific timeline they are free to execute those secondary targets if opportunity knocks. Because the other LDs are already in place. If someone fires on Home Fleet, holy hell will be hatched from unholy Spiders.

Sure, but you need to describe what this operation would be in the first place. You're describing now the chance attack as the primary mission, which it can't be. Or are you really suggesting they'd come and wait for a year or two until those ships did drop their wedges and into the attack solution?

The scanning equipment in orbit will be useless and focused elsewhere. If you are scanning your property with binoculars, you aren't focused on the tree in your front yard. And the scans of the Forts will be irrelevant from their distance.

That's a bad metaphor. Trees don't move and the forest doesn't get close to you.

You seem to imply the RMN will all of a sudden forget that the MAlign has stealth ships and stop it's continuous scanning procedures that were most likely put in place after the Yawata Strike. I say "all of a sudden" because the timeline for the rest of the books is likely to be at most 15 years, so the attack would need to happen within this timeframe. I don't agree they'll do that.

Though yes, Honor's action during the Battle of Galton (see the "they all became dumb" thread) put that into question.

BTW, this also puts a limit on the number of LDs that can exist. See the post on the other thread that discusses the Sharks having prototype spider engines as late as 1921 PD and that they simply couldn't produce them any faster!

Your description of attacks rely on serendipity or the Manties being particularly dumb. Home Fleet does not come into orbit, it's always on the move. Even if it did come into orbit, it would be no more than once a Manticore year, so the window of attack is what, 6 hours every 600 days? This also depends on that many LDs somehow inserting, which we know is a 3- to 4-month operation at a minimum. And they wouldn't be in orbit nor leave torpedoes close to orbit because there's just too much traffic, the chance of random detection is high and grows with the time they wait. So if they are not in orbit, how can take the opportunity if the Home Fleet comes?

In fact, if the Home Fleet suddenly turns and starts coming for you, you should skedaddle! Are you really going to bank on their course change being a coincidence?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:You don't send LDs to infiltrate an enemy system to wait for an opportunity. They are there to attack. They are there to kick the ever loving crap out of the system. By comparison, the Yawatta Strike was a love tap.

Well, exactly. So what is their primary mission and how would it be accomplished?

Total destruction of the infrastructure, and key military targets on planet.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I'm asking because this opportunity for an attack we're discussing here has to be of meaningful magnitude compared to the primary mission, otherwise the LDs would never break cover to attack. They would have continued to wait to do what they came to do in the first place, because once they kick the hornet's nest, the entire system goes on alert, closing their window of attack for the other mission.

The window cannot close when you are inside the window. It is called behind enemy lines.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And this other mission must also have a meaningful chance of success, within a reasonable time frame. It can't be waiting for an opportunity that may never happen, or depending on the enemy being dumb.

I understand your questions and continued intransigence. Both are rooted in your continued belief that the Spiders cannot nest in optimum firing position of the planet. I, OTOH, have no doubts.

Especially since the introduction of the nano coating on the hull, which I believe its sole purpose is for stealth up close and personal. Don't sweat it, you'll be relieved of that belief.

cthia wrote:And if I were responsible for this "Operation Nemesis" (?), I wouldn't send just enough LDs. There will be a few extra which have secondary targets. And after some specific timeline they are free to execute those secondary targets if opportunity knocks. Because the other LDs are already in place. If someone fires on Home Fleet, holy hell will be hatched from unholy Spiders.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Sure, but you need to describe what this operation would be in the first place. You're describing now the chance attack as the primary mission, which it can't be. Or are you really suggesting they'd come and wait for a year or two until those ships did drop their wedges and into the attack solution?

See above. The Admiralty is gone. Mount Royal Palace is gone. Hope there isn't too many VIPs dead. Power distribution on the entire planet is destroyed. Communications on planet destroyed. If the LDs can get that close to the planet they can effect completely surgical strikes that will make what the SLN achieved look like child's play.

cthia wrote:The scanning equipment in orbit will be useless and focused elsewhere. If you are scanning your property with binoculars, you aren't focused on the tree in your front yard. And the scans of the Forts will be irrelevant from their distance.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's a bad metaphor. Trees don't move and the forest doesn't get close to you.

Which means you will miss the forest for the trees? That is my point.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:You seem to imply the RMN will all of a sudden forget that the MAlign has stealth ships and stop it's continuous scanning procedures that were most likely put in place after the Yawata Strike. I say "all of a sudden" because the timeline for the rest of the books is likely to be at most 15 years, so the attack would need to happen within this timeframe. I don't agree they'll do that.

Though yes, Honor's action during the Battle of Galton (see the "they all became dumb" thread) put that into question.

Ditto. They have already forgotten.

Exactly what continuous scanning procedures would that be? Against technology they don't have nor understand. May as well scan for apparitions. Wait, maybe that isn't a good example because we know that Ghosts exist. Perhaps the RMN can borrow an ectoplasm detector. Who they gonna call? Ghostbusters?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:BTW, this also puts a limit on the number of LDs that can exist. See the post on the other thread that discusses the Sharks having prototype spider engines as late as 1921 PD and that they simply couldn't produce them any faster!

Yet the MA produced an entire system, Galton, in the blink of an eye. Is their author fresh out of handwavium?

cthia wrote:Your description of attacks rely on serendipity or the Manties being particularly dumb. Home Fleet does not come into orbit, it's always on the move. Even if it did come into orbit, it would be no more than once a Manticore year, so the window of attack is what, 6 hours every 600 days? This also depends on that many LDs somehow inserting, which we know is a 3- to 4-month operation at a minimum. And they wouldn't be in orbit nor leave torpedoes close to orbit because there's just too much traffic, the chance of random detection is high and grows with the time they wait. So if they are not in orbit, how can take the opportunity if the Home Fleet comes?

Doubting Dan still thinks the stealthy Spiders cannot stalk the planet. And no, the Manties are anything but dumb. But they are ignorant of the Spider drive and its capabilities.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In fact, if the Home Fleet suddenly turns and starts coming for you, you should skedaddle! Are you really going to bank on their course change being a coincidence?

Says the fly to the Spider?

So there is a chance they will come into orbit. No, the Spiders will bank on their course change being an opportunity. These are wolfpacks. Their bearing will take the flies within the envelope of no less than two Spiders. What was that Henke said? "Time to take the gloves off."

Let's see how they like SD-grade graser torps firing a total of a full 3 seconds. Volleys coming in perpendicular to the bow and stern for clean up the kilt shots.

Plus, the RMN can't fire on something so close to the planet that they don't really have a firing solution for. Their scans probably detected something fuzzy, which is no longer there and may be moving. Besides, it is hammer time!

.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Your description of attacks rely on serendipity or the Manties being particularly dumb. Home Fleet does not come into orbit, it's always on the move.

No, it is in orbit around Spinx most of the time. At least it was before the Peeps blew it up.

And see how it worked at Beowulf.
"Aside from the two squadrons of Agamemnon-class BC(P)s of the ready response force, Third Fleet’s hyper generators were powered completely down. It would take a Saganami-class cruiser thirty-seven minutes—and an SD like Lysander or a CLAC like her own Fafnir over forty—to bring up their generators and translate. For that matter, except for the ready response squadrons, every ship would have to bring her impeller nodes up from scratch at the same time, and that alone would take forty minutes, so not even the Saganami was getting into hyper any sooner than Fafnir."

So no, it's perfectly possible a careful yet aggressive MAN TF could kill an entire RMN or GA fleet. If one had shown up at Beowulf they could have blowed up Third Fleet as they sat there with their impeller nodes cold, one GT per SD.

I know that the dedicated ones on here will blow holes in my argument, but following the nautical theme I wonder how effective the LDs will be?
Different and slower drive technology, low emissions and hard to track, armed with effective missiles. Sounds similar to arming Nelson's fleet with high tech missiles, and sending it against a modern US fleet?

Daryl wrote:I know that the dedicated ones on here will blow holes in my argument, but following the nautical theme I wonder how effective the LDs will be?
Different and slower drive technology, low emissions and hard to track, armed with effective missiles. Sounds similar to arming Nelson's fleet with high tech missiles, and sending it against a modern US fleet?

Well, the USS Fitzgerald didn't notice a 730 foot long, 40,000 ton freighter until it crashed into the destroyer. Rumor has it that the OOD and watch officer in the CIC would not talk because they were angry the other was having sex with the same enlisted crewman. Probably would have helped if the CIC had known how to use the surface search radar.

So perhaps it might be just like that....

Daryl wrote:I know that the dedicated ones on here will blow holes in my argument, but following the nautical theme I wonder how effective the LDs will be?
Different and slower drive technology, low emissions and hard to track, armed with effective missiles. Sounds similar to arming Nelson's fleet with high tech missiles, and sending it against a modern US fleet?

Ah ah ah. That is an invisible Nelson's fleet armed with very smart, very autonomous, and very destructive missiles. It doesn't matter if Nelson's big bad wolf-pack is made of steel, brick, wood or straw if it can get close enough to blow your house down.

The most important thing in war has never been the delivery system itself. It has always been about getting an enormous amount of firepower in range of the enemy. It doesn't matter if you have to shoot that firepower with a slingshot, launch it with a catapult, sail it over on a homemade raft, or drop it from what is essentially a tank with wings in the form of a B-52 bomber.

It wouldn't matter if the delivery systems are wooden ships, a canoe or a rowboat, just as long as they can get in close enough to get the job done. And if it has enough destructive power to destroy battleships and carriers, then that is certainly getting the job done. Heck, a motorized raft will do the job if it is mounted with a railgun and it can get close enough. Or if it fires 3-second grasers.

And sure, it will be nice if those delivery systems can survive their mission, but if they take out BBs and Carriers then that is acceptable. Nowadays it doesn't matter if the delivery system is an invisible drone. It carries tremendous firepower.

Although sad, these truths have fueled the despicable tactic of using suicide bombers in the form of kids who can get close enough to their targets, terrorists who can surreptiously leave backpacks in a crowd of people.

The Lenny Dets are a means of getting a lot of destructive power in range of the enemy. It doesn't matter that they are slow, as long as they can get the job done. And when your infrastructure starts to blow the hell up, and key military targets start to blow the hell up, and your modern warships start to blow the hell up, then what does it matter if the delivery system is several arachnids or a hot air balloon.

Sure, the LDs are a lot slower. But that may help them to be patient. It is an age old cat and mouse game between the tortoise and the hare. The hare is overconfident and ignorant. The tortoise is invisible this time, and very very patient. And it has a very big over-bite from very big teeth, and it is insanely vicious. Probably from some form of malignancy. Possibly rabid. And venemous.

cthia wrote:Total destruction of the infrastructure, and key military targets on planet.

Please be detailed how they're going to achieve that, if they haven't eliminated Home Fleet first. If Home Fleet is on the move, then they can't attack it. They'd have to wait for Home Fleet to eventually come to port, which I'm saying doesn't happen.

And how are they going to attack two space stations on each planet, one of which at least is going to have the bubblewall up? And then get past the forts and other OWP to attack the planets?

I understand your questions and continued intransigence. Both are rooted in your continued belief that the Spiders cannot nest in optimum firing position of the planet. I, OTOH, have no doubts.

Correct, I do not attribute to them magical powers that haven't been discussed or even alluded to. In any case, it's besides the point.

See above. The Admiralty is gone. Mount Royal Palace is gone. Hope there isn't too many VIPs dead. Power distribution on the entire planet is destroyed. Communications on planet destroyed. If the LDs can get that close to the planet they can effect completely surgical strikes that will make what the SLN achieved look like child's play.

They can't do that while Home Fleet, forts, one space station and OWP are still around. They have to eliminate at least the forts and OWP and both space stations around Manticore. If Home Fleet is away from them, they'd have a window of opportunity to attack the planet before being forced to engage. But even then I don't see this happening, because all the tugs and pinnaces and any remaining RMN ships would be trying to ram the LDs. The number of targets that have to be eliminated in orbit of Manticore must be around a thousand, most of which have wedges.

So the only thing they could do in the time available is not surgical strikes. It's indiscriminate orbital bombarding. That's not going to happen. First, because it doesn't support the MAlign's goals: they'd be marked for the next 1000 years as being the perpetrators of the single worst atrocity in human history, even if they win and attempt to rewrite history.

Second, and most importantly, David won't write this.

So, be reasonable and come up with a plan that has a chance of being written. Remember this is the Honorverse, not the Alignnmentverse.

Which means you will miss the forest for the trees? That is my point.

No, that's not what I meant to say.

I meant this as a comparison to a military installation, where a soldier with binoculars is scanning the trees in the forest from a tower. The part left unsaid is that around this military installation the forest has been cleared and there's a large area (a kill zone) that is devoid of debris and concealment opportunities. Even if this installation is receiving constant traffic of supplies and personnel in and out, those are also under constant watch.

The forest and trees don't move. A stealthy enemy would have to come in the open, in this kill zone, in order to approach to effective range, if they want to attack the military position.

Ditto. They have already forgotten.

I did say I don't buy it. I said that TEiF worries me, but not that I am convinced they became dumb.

Exactly what continuous scanning procedures would that be? Against technology they don't have nor understand. May as well scan for apparitions. Wait, maybe that isn't a good example because we know that Ghosts exist. Perhaps the RMN can borrow an ectoplasm detector. Who they gonna call? Ghostbusters?

It's better than nothing. We do know that during Oyster Bay, some traces were picked up, so we know stealth isn't perfect. And stealth can be beat with sufficient power. Granted, it's a lot, but when you have the full planet behind you, it would be worth it.

Of course, continuous scans could lull them into a false sense of security.

And yes, it all depends on how long this is going to take. I don't expect such procedures to be maintained past the lifetime of those who were alive during the first strike, and probably not after they're no longer in charge. But the books will not last that long, so that's a moot point.

Yet the MA produced an entire system, Galton, in the blink of an eye. Is their author fresh out of handwavium?

How long do your eyeblinks last? Because Galton took over two hundred years to be put together. Darius has existed for nearly two hundred now too.

David is careful to make sure things are realistic. The MAlign does indeed have one full system it could build a fleet on. I've said before I think they may not have done a lot of shipbuilding in this system because it was supposed to be the Inner Onion Paradise, but that's speculation.

The GA has a dozen major systems to build ships on. That's Manticore (which counts for two), Yeltsin's Star, Haven, New Berlin, Beowulf, Bolthole (which also counts for two), three more major shipyards in the Republic of Haven and I'd venture at least one more in the Andermani Empire. Then you can add Erewhon, Grendelsbane and other minor systems that also have significant shipyards or capacity to have them.

And if you add to much time in the timeline, then the Solarian League gets in the game too.

The point is, given the technology in the Honorverse, Darius cannot outproduce its opponents.

So there is a chance they will come into orbit. No, the Spiders will bank on their course change being an opportunity. These are wolfpacks. Their bearing will take the flies within the envelope of no less than two Spiders. What was that Henke said? "Time to take the gloves off."

So the plan is suicide? Because with its lower accelerations, if Home Fleet turns on your direction, if you don't start moving away immediately, you may not have a chance.

Let's see how they like SD-grade graser torps firing a total of a full 3 seconds. Volleys coming in perpendicular to the bow and stern for clean up the kilt shots.

Do note the 3-second grasers we've so far been told are cruiser-grade, not SD-grade. It's possible technology will have improved to get bigger, but it's not yet a fact.

Plus, the RMN can't fire on something so close to the planet that they don't really have a firing solution for. Their scans probably detected something fuzzy, which is no longer there and may be moving. Besides, it is hammer time!
.

Against an enemy that, as you've postulated, is systematically eliminating any ship with a wedge (including civilians!) and is striking the planet with orbital bombardment? Yes, the RMN would take a chance.

kzt wrote:So no, it's perfectly possible a careful yet aggressive MAN TF could kill an entire RMN or GA fleet. If one had shown up at Beowulf they could have blowed up Third Fleet as they sat there with their impeller nodes cold, one GT per SD.

It's certainly damning that most of the Beowulf defenders were sitting around with cold nodes.

But I have serious doubts that a single GT, with its single cruiser grade (not even BC grade) graser could reliable single shot kill an SD. Yes with impellers down it has no wedge or sidewalls; that'll make the graser far more lethal. But the SD still has meters of physical energy dispersing armor (admittedly much less on the ventral and dorsal surfaces) followed by dozens of meters of less critical compartments, then another few meters of core armor fully wrapping the critical systems and only after penetrating that deep do you have a chance of hitting a complete kill shot to, say, one of the fusion reactors.

Seriously damage an SD, absolutely; render it combat ineffective, reasonable chance; but outright kill it, that seems to require quite a bit of luck.

a three second pulse compared to the typical millisecond pulse?

Besides, SDs have no armor on the dorsal or ventral surface.

kzt wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Your description of attacks rely on serendipity or the Manties being particularly dumb. Home Fleet does not come into orbit, it's always on the move.

No, it is in orbit around Spinx most of the time. At least it was before the Peeps blew it up.

And see how it worked at Beowulf.
"Aside from the two squadrons of Agamemnon-class BC(P)s of the ready response force, Third Fleet’s hyper generators were powered completely down. It would take a Saganami-class cruiser thirty-seven minutes—and an SD like Lysander or a CLAC like her own Fafnir over forty—to bring up their generators and translate. For that matter, except for the ready response squadrons, every ship would have to bring her impeller nodes up from scratch at the same time, and that alone would take forty minutes, so not even the Saganami was getting into hyper any sooner than Fafnir."

So no, it's perfectly possible a careful yet aggressive MAN TF could kill an entire RMN or GA fleet. If one had shown up at Beowulf they could have blowed up Third Fleet as they sat there with their impeller nodes cold, one GT per SD.

I knew there were ships sitting somewhere with cold impellers. Thanks kzt.