Attacking Darius:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Loren Pechtel wrote:At t=0 the missile clears the wedge and can see the ship. However, it sees where the ship was at t=-1 and it's beam hits at t=+1. Thus the ship has two seconds of evasion and at Honorverse accelerations that's enough to make the hit probability pretty small.

That's exactly correct. The point is that at t=0 the warhead can see the ship. Until that point, it couldn't, so it couldn't know where to fire to strike the ship. It's indeed where the ship was at t=-1, but that's enough information to discard all other possible positions where the ship hadn't been seen at t=0. It's also sufficient to estimate where the ship can be at t=+1, so it can aim the multiple beams.

That's all I've been trying to say.

Which means it's aiming where the ship was 2 seconds ago. Remember, distance goes at the square of acceleration and area goes at the square of distance. Thus doubling the time increases the successful evasion chance 16x.

Loren Pechtel wrote:At t=0 the missile clears the wedge and can see the ship. However, it sees where the ship was at t=-1 and it's beam hits at t=+1. Thus the ship has two seconds of evasion and at Honorverse accelerations that's enough to make the hit probability pretty small.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's exactly correct. The point is that at t=0 the warhead can see the ship. Until that point, it couldn't, so it couldn't know where to fire to strike the ship. It's indeed where the ship was at t=-1, but that's enough information to discard all other possible positions where the ship hadn't been seen at t=0. It's also sufficient to estimate where the ship can be at t=+1, so it can aim the multiple beams.

That's all I've been trying to say.

Loren Pechtel wrote:Which means it's aiming where the ship was 2 seconds ago. Remember, distance goes at the square of acceleration and area goes at the square of distance. Thus doubling the time increases the successful evasion chance 16x.

To be fair: if the sensors measure both location and velocity, then there is a good idea where the ship will be at t=+1 (which is what Thinks Markedly is saying) and the missile can aim at that point - not at the sighted position where the ship was at t=-1. So you are incorrect that the aim is at the t=-1 point, instead it is aimed at the best guess for the t=+1 point. Given knowledge of the maximum acceleration of the ship (from the ability to move within the wedge), it is possible to compute a probability distribution of positions for the target.

PS: Distance increases as half of the acceleration times the square of the time difference, not the square of the acceleration.

tlb wrote:To be fair: if the sensors measure both location and velocity, then there is a good idea where the ship will be at t=+1 (which is what Thinks Markedly is saying) and the missile can aim at that point - not at the sighted position where the ship was at t=-1. So you are incorrect that the aim is at the t=-1 point, instead it is aimed at the best guess for the t=+1 point. Given knowledge of the maximum acceleration of the ship (from the ability to move within the wedge), it is possible to compute a probability distribution of positions for the target.

Yes. The point is that that acceleration can change.

PS: Distance increases as half of the acceleration times the square of the time difference, not the square of the acceleration.

Argh! You're right--and wrong. I should have said distance goes at the square of time, not acceleration. Evasion chance still goes at 16x the time.

Taunting Time! Impellers hot and idling.

Shields at 50%, taunting at 100%! - Tom Pope


After finishing the masterpiece that is To End in Fire, the GA better stay the hell out of Darius. Unless they get an invite.

Stop checking the phucking mail! I don't think one is coming.

"And if one does come?"

Then cultivate it! A shredder might not do the trick.

cthia wrote:After finishing the masterpiece that is To End in Fire, the GA better stay the hell out of Darius. Unless they get an invite.

If the GA finds Darius then it will conquer Darius, because the cost is less than the cost of allowing the Malign to continue their plans.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:After finishing the masterpiece that is To End in Fire, the GA better stay the hell out of Darius. Unless they get an invite.

If the GA finds Darius then it will conquer Darius, because the cost is less than the cost of allowing the Malign to continue their plans.

Maybe. But you still ain't gettin' an invitation. And if you show up without one, you will be promptly shown the exit with a boot full of grasers up your ass. LOL

cthia wrote:After finishing the masterpiece that is To End in Fire, the GA better stay the hell out of Darius. Unless they get an invite.

tlb wrote:If the GA finds Darius then it will conquer Darius, because the cost is less than the cost of allowing the Malign to continue their plans.

cthia wrote:Maybe. But you still ain't gettin' an invitation. And if you show up without one, you will be promptly shown the exit with a boot full of grasers up your ass. LOL

I am sure that the Malign will try and I am sure that GA will anticipate that. We have still to see what the spider drive G-torpedo will do to a warship with all of its shields up.

I hope both RFC and I live long enough to see this episode written out.

Let's get this show on the road. There are lotsa new toys to play with.

Ok people, lots of things I said came true. I kept getting the same old song and dance about 'the industrial capability of Darius can't possibly be up for the task since too little time has passed since their settlement.'

I kept saying that was rubbish considering an enemy that can literally manufacture people. They make slaves off of an assembly line. Plus, it was something that the author could wave away with the keystrokes of a Remington.

I kept telling you people it wouldn't be business as usual. It wasn't. I suggested that Forts could be pulled back to cover the inner system and planet. They were. Galton had set up a permanently "castled" position.

I spoke of huge Forts. There are.

And... It was laid to rest. The MA's stealth is a cut above.

TOLD U SO TOLD U SO TOLD U SO!


Remember how the GA had a huge warning that the gorilla was rolling and headed their way? They had lots of time to prepare a warm welcome.

Now imagine Darius having a warning that the GA are headed their way and they have time to prepare a very warm welcome. And they will be warned by Audrey O'hanrahan.

And yet, for all that it didn't matter. The industry they were able to assemble and the defenses it could erect, were grossly insufficient to stop a single Grand Alliance fleet.

A couple centuries of build-up and it couldn't hold off a single fleet built mostly in the last 10 years.

Yes, at Galton they weren't able to use all the MAlign's toys in that defense, but even the graser torps weren't expected to actually save the system, simply increase the cost for the GA.


And also, as pointed out in the book, even if that whole GA fleet was destroyed the GA could build another and return far faster than the MAlign could rebuild and repair the damage they'd take in that fight. Despite their best efforts they didn't have an industrial and shipbuilding base larger than the GA could command -- as so as we've been saying all along they're on the wrong end of a significant industrial imbalance. Galton didn't change that (and now of course they've lost that industrial base; so things are even more lopsided against them)

You must have missed how Grand Fleet only lost three capital ships and about a wing's worth of LACs throughout their dismantlement of Galton's entire defenses.

The attempted suicide-vest trick Galton used at the very end was more damaging, but that trick has been used up; the GA is unlikely to fall for it again and sail into such ranges of whatever's left orbiting Darius by the time their long-range bombardment is finished.

If Darius is ever discovered, the MAlign still has the same problem they had at Galton; they simply don't have the capacity to go out and defeat an attacking Grand Fleet which refuses to cross the hyper limit and spews millions of recon drones to establish a safe bubble. The Alignment must exchange Darius' industrial base in order to draw Grand Fleet into the system for any sort of ambush, at which point they have lost.