Attacking Darius:

RFC is a naval historian, and I can't quite shake the thought that the Lenny Dets are the equivalent of the sail powered three deckers.
Can't be detected on radar due to their wooden construction, slower, but devastating if they can pull off a surprise. But hideously vulnerable if detected earlier.

Daryl wrote:RFC is a naval historian, and I can't quite shake the thought that the Lenny Dets are the equivalent of the sail powered three deckers.
Can't be detected on radar due to their wooden construction, slower, but devastating if they can pull off a surprise. But hideously vulnerable if detected earlier.

I tend to suspect they're more like SSBNs (just without the mutually assured destruction aspect).

Super stealthy; very long range attack, and primarily target infrastructure and bases rather than under way ships or fleets.

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:The GA doesn't even know Spider drive warships exist and how effective they will be, or the unprecedented tactics they will afford. Glaring holes you can drive a fleet through. A fleet of LDs!

The GA would be idiots not to think a spider drive warship existed.

I certainly agree. Yet, I am not quite sure that they do, considering their defensive posture. Although I concede the fact that remaining at DEFCON 1 indefinitely is unrealistic.

At any rate, they need to be made aware of the possibility across the board. Not just a few key officers. The LDs are going to turn a lot of officers in the GA into a bunch of unprepared Elvis Santinos.

Jonathan_S wrote:In A Rising Thunder Elizabeth and Honor are talking about how what Simões told of them "what he does know about the ‘spider drive’ dovetails entirely too neatly with what happened to us" -- presumably referring to the Yawata Strike. Are you proposing that they think the strike was carried out by non-warship spider equipped vessels?

I think that is exactly what they think. Personally, what I think is the GA does not think the MA has realized such an ambitious project yet. The GA thinks a spider-driven warship is still sitting on the drawing board and has yet to materialize.

Jonathan_S wrote:Heck, later in that book we have Benjamin and Albrecht discussing how the GA has been busying telling everyone who'll listen about "virus-based nanotech assassinations, the streak drive, and the spider drive, and they’re naming names about something called ‘the Mesan Alignment.’"

All hearsay. Of course, with the discovery of Galton, they should have realized that the rumors might be true; in all probability are true. But knowing in your head is quite different than knowing in your heart.

Jonathan_S wrote:While I don't think there's text of the GA discussion warships with spider drives; they know spider drive exist, they know it's super stealthy, and they believe (rightly) it was used in the Oyster Bay attacks. That all adds up (baring terminal stupidity) to them being aware that the MAlign has spider drive warships.

Now they don't (as far as we know) specifically know about the Lenny Dets; nor do they likely have much if any detail on the design or specific capabilities of the Ghosts and Sharks used in OB. But the mere existence of warships built around this spider drive won't be a surprise to them. (And based on what they know of the drive's stealth, and whatever else about it Simões could tell them they'll have people attempting to come up with effective tactics -- and others working to counter such tactics. They've still significant unknowns about the total capabilities -- and they likely won't think up quite the same tactics that the MAlign will; but it won't be because they're ignorant of the broad outline of the threat. (And they might even come up with one or two tactics that are better than what the Malign thinks up )

What I personally fear is the GA does not realize the scope of the spider-drive deployment. Some particular minds in the GA might have theories and I agree that these minds won't be surprised when spider-drive warships surface. And I certainly don't doubt that Honor has already worked out in her own mind what such a warship could do. But whether even Honor truly feels that these things are out there remains to be seen.

But I digress. I personally believe the GA thinks the drive is a limited use device utilized only on missiles, like the missiles utilized in the Yawata Strike. Or possibly on smaller, unarmed ships utilized to deploy spider-driven missiles. The GA has been too complacent and dependent upon their higher acceleration. They don't fear what a spider-driven ship can do. That arrogance is mirrored in the forum.

But the average officer is going to be at a loss and unprepared when they find themselves up against these things.

One not only has to conceive of the tactics that these things affords the enemy. But one has to have given considerable thought to ones own defensive tactics when dealing with them.

Again, the LDs are going to be as successful and destructive as the day that submarines first came onto the scene.

penny wrote:Again, the LDs are going to be as successful and destructive as the day that submarines first came onto the scene.

Um, that's not the ringing endorsement you seem to think it is.

I think Honor and the GA would be vastly released if spider ships were only as successful as the first generation of proper submarines - the Holland boats of which the first prototype began testing in the late 1870s. (Those early subs were basically stealthy harbor defense craft. Slow, short ranged, with often questionably effective weapons, and in many ways were as dangerous to their crew as their opponents)

The first really successful subs were the WWI subs which were the results of over 3 decades of major iterative development. And even those subs were largely impotent against a warship underway - and pretty short ranged; the U-boats of WWI were mostly a threat to merchant ships in the Channel or a little ways into the Western Approaches -- the RN didn't even bother convoying further into the Atlantic because the subs of the era couldn't patrol out that far.

penny wrote:I think that is exactly what they think. Personally, what I think is the GA does not think the MA has realized such an ambitious project yet. The GA thinks a spider-driven warship is still sitting on the drawing board and has yet to materialize.

They hadn't materialised by the time of the attack. White Haven's speculation in the post-strike meeting was actually spot-on.

The question is just how long the MAlign is afforded to complete those ships. We don't know how long that will take. The more time passes, the more the GA has to assume the MAlign has perfected the technology and rebuilt a fleet.

All hearsay. Of course, with the discovery of Galton, they should have realized that the rumors might be true; in all probability are true. But knowing in your head is quite different than knowing in your heart.

That doesn't apply. You're reading it from the position of foreign powers and people on the street receiving news.

You have to think of this from the point of view of the navies and intelligence services of the GA itself, who have debriefed SimÕes and have reviewed all the data of both the Yawata and Beowulf strikes. They know there's something stealthy out there and they have a scientist who corroborated their data. They don't have a doubt about this.

Note also how Simões was first debriefed by two trusted spooks on the way back from Mesa, before he could have got the news about the Yawata Strike. He couldn't come up with the story to fit the facts because he didn't have the facts yet.

The only question before us is if the data to be reviewed from the Battle of Galton and from captured databases is able to explain this.

But I digress. I personally believe the GA thinks the drive is a limited use device utilized only on missiles, like the missiles utilized in the Yawata Strike. Or possibly on smaller, unarmed ships utilized to deploy spider-driven missiles. The GA has been too complacent and dependent upon their higher acceleration. They don't fear what a spider-driven ship can do. That arrogance is mirrored in the forum.

We don't know what Simões told them. HE didn't have all the data, but he may have said it had been scaled up to ships.

And they'd definitely be incompetent fools not to assume the technology had been scaled up and deployed on ships. They may make a "likely scenario" that this hasn't happened yet, but they can't rule it out. They have to have the worst-case scenario in mind when making plans and that has to include large capital ships throwing hundreds of torpedoes.

But the average officer is going to be at a loss and unprepared when they find themselves up against these things.

The average officer is not a battle squadron or BatCruRon CO. Admirals are, and admirals go through at least two rounds of intensive tactical training. They're also rotated to shore postings so they can brush up on the latest tactics and hardware.

Pre-Crusher, average Captains and Commanders may face LDs out there, in your scenario of an LD ambushing some destroyers or light-cruisers, maybe a division of cruisers, possibly when the LD is targetting some rear-area system's infrastructure to inspire terror. But that terror and fear does not degrade the GA's fighting capabilities.

And what happens if the LD runs into an officer capable like Capt. Terekhov in charge of a Saganami-C like HMS Hexapuma. The nasty kitty may show her claws.

One not only has to conceive of the tactics that these things affords the enemy. But one has to have given considerable thought to ones own defensive tactics when dealing with them.

Right, but that's the job of the admiralty and instructors in the home systems, not your average officer. Teaching those is what the Crusher is for.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:I think that is exactly what they think. Personally, what I think is the GA does not think the MA has realized such an ambitious project yet. The GA thinks a spider-driven warship is still sitting on the drawing board and has yet to materialize.

They hadn't materialised by the time of the attack. White Haven's speculation in the post-strike meeting was actually spot-on.

The question is just how long the MAlign is afforded to complete those ships. We don't know how long that will take. The more time passes, the more the GA has to assume the MAlign has perfected the technology and rebuilt a fleet.

We still disagree on that. Remember, I got what I personally think is inside intel from the author that you had better not count on them not being ready. I know everyone disputes that post from the author as meaning what I read into it. But you just had to be there. And I know that everybody fails to take stock in my midnight ride, same as what happened to Paul Revere, when I tried to warn everyone that The Lennys are coming! The Lennys are coming! Over in the thread with that name.


The LDs are just being worked up in their acceptance trials, and they are fine-tuning their spinnerets. They are simply waiting for the opening phase of the war. As far as what will transpire at the end of the day. Someday. Some day.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:All hearsay. Of course, with the discovery of Galton, they should have realized that the rumors might be true; in all probability are true. But knowing in your head is quite different than knowing in your heart.

That doesn't apply. You're reading it from the position of foreign powers and people on the street receiving news.

You have to think of this from the point of view of the navies and intelligence services of the GA itself, who have debriefed SimÕes and have reviewed all the data of both the Yawata and Beowulf strikes. They know there's something stealthy out there and they have a scientist who corroborated their data. They don't have a doubt about this.

I am looking at this from the point of view of all whom it may concern. Naval intelligence makes mistakes as well.

Shannon consistently dropped the ball about "the latest iteration" of RMN tech. She constantly had to browbeat herself, "I should have known that that tech would sooner or later lead to this." For example, I think that happened with the RMN's stealthy drones being affixed with warheads.

Sonja dropped a few balls as well. And the SL's ONI dropped every ball.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Note also how Simões was first debriefed by two trusted spooks on the way back from Mesa, before he could have got the news about the Yawata Strike. He couldn't come up with the story to fit the facts because he didn't have the facts yet.

True, I concede to that. On the flip side, consider why it was so important that he be debriefed. Because the powers that be were not in the habit of jumping at shadows and most likely wouldn't have taken it with at least a grain of salt.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:The only question before us is if the data to be reviewed from the Battle of Galton and from captured databases is able to explain this.

I am sorry, but the GA seems to be as pig-headed about what's staring them in the face as the SL was. I'm telling you, SL institutional arrogance is as infectious as the flu.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:But I digress. I personally believe the GA thinks the drive is a limited use device utilized only on missiles, like the missiles utilized in the Yawata Strike. Or possibly on smaller, unarmed ships utilized to deploy spider-driven missiles. The GA has been too complacent and dependent upon their higher acceleration. They don't fear what a spider-driven ship can do. That arrogance is mirrored in the forum.

We don't know what Simões told them. HE didn't have all the data, but he may have said it had been scaled up to ships.

And they'd definitely be incompetent fools not to assume the technology had been scaled up and deployed on ships. They may make a "likely scenario" that this hasn't happened yet, but they can't rule it out. They have to have the worst-case scenario in mind when making plans and that has to include large capital ships throwing hundreds of torpedoes.

That wouldn't make them fools if measured by the current meter stick, it'd just make them human. Like Shannon, like Sonja and Pat Givens at one point. And as humans, they are also limited by time and were distracted by the war with the SL.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:But the average officer is going to be at a loss and unprepared when they find themselves up against these things.

The average officer is not a battle squadron or BatCruRon CO. Admirals are, and admirals go through at least two rounds of intensive tactical training. They're also rotated to shore postings so they can brush up on the latest tactics and hardware.

Granted. But there are officers -- even Admirals -- who are only average. And some who are below average like Elvis Santino, and some who will simply make mistakes, like Bachfish. Not to mention the Admirals who are Admirals by cronyism. Like Young.

There is a reason for "The Top Ten Tacticians and Strategists" thread. Some didn't make the list for a reason.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Pre-Crusher, average Captains and Commanders may face LDs out there, in your scenario of an LD ambushing some destroyers or light-cruisers, maybe a division of cruisers, possibly when the LD is targetting some rear-area system's infrastructure to inspire terror. But that terror and fear does not degrade the GA's fighting capabilities.

And what happens if the LD runs into an officer capable like Capt. Terekhov in charge of a Saganami-C like HMS Hexapuma. The nasty kitty may show her claws.

See above. Even Admirals are average, or less.

The Nasty Kitty can show her claws all she wants, but she can't claw what she can't see! Nobody in the GA has been up against these things or have been up against the kind of tactics they will use. Honor is a gal who can think on the fly. And I imagine Megan might survive an initial encounter. But the LDs are going to unleash a completely new paradigm in strategy and tactics. And it will be a...

"SURPRISE! GUESS WHO HAS COME TO DINNER!" Regardless of what the GA thinks it knows.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:One not only has to conceive of the tactics that these things affords the enemy. But one has to have given considerable thought to ones own defensive tactics when dealing with them.

Right, but that's the job of the admiralty and instructors in the home systems, not your average officer. Teaching those is what the Crusher is for.

Garbage in. Garbage out. The Crusher cannot be programmed without the variables and details of the hardware. And without knowledge of the strategy and tactics. Not until blood has been shed and the GA has had a chance to lick its wounds and reassess the mess they're in.

If the GA is as prepared for this enemy, intellectually, as you say they are, then they are being very irresponsible with their defensive posture.

As it stands the GA Home Systems are flying around like a bunch of hapless flies inviting a stealthy spider to come in and wrap things up.

Bouncing off my previous post about the difficulty of the Admiralty preparing officers for this new threat environment, when the Admiralty itself might not have completely grasped it yet.

Well, it occurs to me, even if the Admiralty has a good grasp on the tactical and strategic possibilities of the spider-drive, would that knowledge be something that should be dealt with in the "NEED TO KNOW" thread?

Rafe Cordones could have been court martialed for refusing a direct order because the Captain on the scene thought it was imperative to prevent the knowledge getting back to the PN that they could defeat the crippler.

What about the spider drive? Wouldn't the GA want to keep it quiet what they know of the spider drive from the MA? And if the GA has tactical and strategic scenarios involving the spider drive, wouldn't that possibly alert the MA about what the GA knows and doesn't know? Enabling them to exploit the holes in their intel? And shouldn't the Crusher and Holotanks be one of the easiest areas to gain access via a spy?

And even if the Admiralty elects to inform all officers to be on the look out for a spider drive ship, how many Admirals will laugh at the idea of ghosts? And fail to adequately prepare themselves anyway. Like Elvis Santino.

And how many officers will be adept at dealing with a completely new set of rules, tactics and strategy when they have been taught traditional tactics and strategy all of their life?

You can't just wake up one morning and assimilate a complete new paradigm in strategy and tactics, when most officers are only mediocre at traditional strategy and tactics.

penny wrote:Bouncing off my previous post about the difficulty of the Admiralty preparing officers for this new threat environment, when the Admiralty itself might not have completely grasped it yet.

Well, it occurs to me, even if the Admiralty has a good grasp on the tactical and strategic possibilities of the spider-drive, would that knowledge be something that should be dealt with in the "NEED TO KNOW" thread?

Rafe Cordones could have been court martialed for refusing a direct order because the Captain on the scene thought it was imperative to prevent the knowledge getting back to the PN that they could defeat the crippler.

What about the spider drive? Wouldn't the GA want to keep it quiet what they know of the spider drive from the MA? And if the GA has tactical and strategic scenarios involving the spider drive, wouldn't that possibly alert the MA about what the GA knows and doesn't know? Enabling them to exploit the holes in their intel? And shouldn't the Crusher and Holotanks be one of the easiest areas to gain access via a spy?

And even if the Admiralty elects to inform all officers to be on the look out for a spider drive ship, how many Admirals will laugh at the idea of ghosts? And fail to adequately prepare themselves anyway. Like Elvis Santino.

And how many officers will be adept at dealing with a completely new set of rules, tactics and strategy when they have been taught traditional tactics and strategy all of their life?

You can't just wake up one morning and assimilate a complete new paradigm in strategy and tactics, when most officers are only mediocre at traditional strategy and tactics.

Clearly Manticore doesn't think they need to keep it secret that they know about the spider drive (see previous text about how the Detwielers and discussion how Manticore is making public announcements about the bad guys having spider drives -- can't do that without disclosing that you know of their existence)

The Crusher wouldn't be as protected as, say, The Pit -- but it's still going to be pretty tightly restricted to officers about to advance to command of their first starship (and the whatever scenarios are deliberately leaked to upperclassmen of the Naval Academy through the deliberate "back door") It's a more secure area of what is already probably a reasonable limited access academy campus -- in that the regular cadets can't get into the Crusher area.

And it's not like Manticore can only distribute tactics as officers cycle through the Crusher. Individual warships, all the way up to fleets, have the ability to run combat simulations. If the Admiralty wants the fleet to practice or develop new anti-spider tactics they've just to distribute appropriate training scenarios based on a range of their best guesses as to a spider ship's tactics and capabilities across the fleet and let the games begin. (And the fleet doesn't exactly seem reluctant to turn some of their inventive crews loose on giving simulated enemies some nasty surprises or tactics -- even if various Admirals don't explicitly task some folks to play the nastiest Red Team that they can)

And I tend to agree that getting the RMN (and it's allied navies) familiarized with what spider warships might do -- and thinking about counters to that -- is more important than the risk that info about those plans leaks back to the MAlign. If the MAlign gets good info on the anti-spider tactics the GA is working on they might be able to work around them -- if the GA doesn't work on anti-spider tactics then the MAlign gets a totally free shot. And that's much worse.

Comments about the Crusher interest me.
Long retired I was a senior Defence Civilian who was tasked to provide some lectures to the senior people in our equivalent.
At the end of the training, being there, I was allowed to participate in the final "Sand pit" evaluation. From memory it was how to get a group of infantry across difficult terrain over several days, without the "Blue Guys" blocking us.
I won, possibly because I cheated by using a real life memory of a successful similar task that my cadet unit did 40 years previously.
The guys in uniform knew what couldn't be done from their regulation experience.
Discarding uniform boots and replacing them with trainers along with taking no supplies apart from water and emergency rations, was some of it.

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:Bouncing off my previous post about the difficulty of the Admiralty preparing officers for this new threat environment, when the Admiralty itself might not have completely grasped it yet.

Well, it occurs to me, even if the Admiralty has a good grasp on the tactical and strategic possibilities of the spider-drive, would that knowledge be something that should be dealt with in the "NEED TO KNOW" thread?

Rafe Cordones could have been court martialed for refusing a direct order because the Captain on the scene thought it was imperative to prevent the knowledge getting back to the PN that they could defeat the crippler.

What about the spider drive? Wouldn't the GA want to keep it quiet what they know of the spider drive from the MA? And if the GA has tactical and strategic scenarios involving the spider drive, wouldn't that possibly alert the MA about what the GA knows and doesn't know? Enabling them to exploit the holes in their intel? And shouldn't the Crusher and Holotanks be one of the easiest areas to gain access via a spy?

And even if the Admiralty elects to inform all officers to be on the look out for a spider drive ship, how many Admirals will laugh at the idea of ghosts? And fail to adequately prepare themselves anyway. Like Elvis Santino.

And how many officers will be adept at dealing with a completely new set of rules, tactics and strategy when they have been taught traditional tactics and strategy all of their life?

You can't just wake up one morning and assimilate a complete new paradigm in strategy and tactics, when most officers are only mediocre at traditional strategy and tactics.

Clearly Manticore doesn't think they need to keep it secret that they know about the spider drive (see previous text about how the Detwielers and discussion how Manticore is making public announcements about the bad guys having spider drives -- can't do that without disclosing that you know of their existence)

The Crusher wouldn't be as protected as, say, The Pit -- but it's still going to be pretty tightly restricted to officers about to advance to command of their first starship (and the whatever scenarios are deliberately leaked to upperclassmen of the Naval Academy through the deliberate "back door") It's a more secure area of what is already probably a reasonable limited access academy campus -- in that the regular cadets can't get into the Crusher area.

And it's not like Manticore can only distribute tactics as officers cycle through the Crusher. Individual warships, all the way up to fleets, have the ability to run combat simulations. If the Admiralty wants the fleet to practice or develop new anti-spider tactics they've just to distribute appropriate training scenarios based on a range of their best guesses as to a spider ship's tactics and capabilities across the fleet and let the games begin. (And the fleet doesn't exactly seem reluctant to turn some of their inventive crews loose on giving simulated enemies some nasty surprises or tactics -- even if various Admirals don't explicitly task some folks to play the nastiest Red Team that they can)

And I tend to agree that getting the RMN (and it's allied navies) familiarized with what spider warships might do -- and thinking about counters to that -- is more important than the risk that info about those plans leaks back to the MAlign. If the MAlign gets good info on the anti-spider tactics the GA is working on they might be able to work around them -- if the GA doesn't work on anti-spider tactics then the MAlign gets a totally free shot. And that's much worse.

Before that post, I thought about the post reminding us that Manticore is screaming bloody murder (pardon the pun) to the galaxy about certain things including a spider drive. But their hands were tied as far as having to do so. Manticore was trying to protect its reputation and alert the galaxy that it is not crazy, paranoid or delusional regarding a hidden entity.

But alerting the enemy that you know it is working on new technology is not the same thing as alerting the enemy you have specific details about that technology.

In the same vein, if Rafe Cardones had listened to the CO on the spot and not let the cat out of the bag that the crippler could be defeated, would the RMN have allowed Sims to exist about how to do it? Maybe they would have included it in any war games in the Home system, but would they have disseminated the information in any kind of data banks or SIMS if they had classified it?