ThinksMarkedly wrote:Almost everything we'd predicted in this thread that the GF would need to do to attack Darius, Honor did to attack Galton. They scouted before, they blockaded, they brought a huge fleet train for resupply, they stayed out of the hyperlimit and translated to alpha whenever they had to, to avoid incoming ordnance. And especially, they made the defensive shell.
Come on guys. You can't be that blind. Why do I continue to see things so differently.
First off, you are right that a few things were predicted.
I also predicted that the GA would make a big mistake because they were going in blind. Remember when I was gobsmacked about the notion of a siege? Well, one of the things I said would be lacking is a staging area. An immediate staging area. As follows ...
As TM mentioned, drones would be sent in to stalk the system. These drones would get deep into enemy territory swinging the long way around trying to avoid detection. Now, when the fleet finally arrives, they have got to "sit like ducks" w/o any accel. Stooging around the hyper limit for lack of a staging area, waiting for the feed from the farthest drones to reach them, and then allow time for the staff to formulate tactics. I stated early on in the thread that that wouldn't be possible in Darius.
Even at Galton they were surprised the GA was stooging. Sitting like ducks. The truth is that at Darius, that first launch would have been an Alpha launch and the GA would have taken huge losses. That was a gigantic mistake Honor made even at the beginning. It didn't bite her on the ass because Galton didn't mount a serious defense, or offense. But then, against an enemy they had trouble seeing, the GA had no choice. Just like I predicted. They didn't dare blindly rush in where fools fear to tread. If that first launch would have been at Darius against the same sitting ducks, the result would have been roasted pheasant.
I also predicted that the defense of Darius would include emplacements outside the limit, guessing at probable approach vectors. Honor mused about weapons being found so far out. There would have been a lot more of them at Darius.
And, at Darius that shell of drones, part of the life blood of the assault, would have been eaten for lunch. Effectively putting the RMN's eyes out.
And, please forget about this blockade business. It ain't so. You can't blockade ships you cannot see. How do the GA know they were stopping invisible ships. Darius had to have a way to ensure that the after action report reached Darius. There was no blockade. You can't interfere with Ghosts.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:What we didn't hear was the discussion about possible stealth ships that could be around. As we discussed in the spoiler thread, the GA knew that the MAlign had stealth ships with drives based on a new technology. We know they hadn't detected anything at Beowulf. So where was the scouting to find out if such a thing was present at Galton before the engagement? That's been the crux of this thread.
Which was another grave tactical error! From my view point, the GA's tactics would have been as arrogant and as ignorant and as fatal as the Sollies. If used at Darius.
I don't know why one would continue to think the fleet of LDs are not ready. That is insane. Do consider that all of the real toys were not "allocated" to Galton. Meaning, they are being produced in enormous numbers somewhere else. (And I could have sworn there was a mention of yet a third system. I haven't had a chance to check the book. I have been busy. And it takes time to "search" a book.)
Speaking of enormous numbers, you can't possibly pack more luggage than a serious navy has at home. There was no way the RMN could carry more missiles to Nouveau Paris than were in the "Home System." That is only part of what I mean when I said at Galton, they effectively had two rounds in the chambers, if using six-shooters! Compared to what a Home System should have! Compared to what Darius will have. The tactics the GA used at Galton would have gotten them killed in Darius.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Maybe they actually did it. They couldn't count on finding anything and we know they didn't find anything, so maybe that meant their attack posture remained unchanged. There was no deviation needed from plan to account for finding something.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:The shifting positions to avoid stealth attack (tactical evasion, I've called it) that I've been suggesting in all thread long were nowhere to be seen in the Galton attack.
Well, that is not quite true. Honor's unorthodox formation from the beginning took care of that. They didn't use the traditional wall of battle. Which I argued would simply offer up a lunch buffet to invisible weapons. Honor used a, hmm, Matryoshka Doll arrangement? She was the biggest prize at the center. Something the RMN didn't usually do. Again, completely different tactics. As I said early on, "not business as usual."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:The text makes it seem like Honor was camped out at a specific position and didn't move all engagement long.
They were stooging! Stooging! Darius would have been so excited for the opportunity, that they would have taken the time to put on a bib and lay napkins in their laps to properly enjoy the meal. Served cold.
ThinksMarkedly wrote: Now, it's possible that they concluded they didn't need to, after the second or third Hasta attack, because they were seeing the stealth weapons early enough...
Not the real stealth weapons, like, oh, warships?
ThinksMarkedly wrote:... but I don't buy it. Like in the spoiler thread, we know they know that those couldn't be what was used to attack either Beowulf, Manticore or Grayson. This wasn't a heat-of-battle oversight, because Honor was there for a week. We didn't hear about the second and third Hasta attacks because they were completely irrelevant to the outcome of the story, but we know that the Galton defenders were planning on sending an even bigger punch. So Honor would have been the recipient of escalating attacks. She would have had to conclude yet another escalation could happen, in the form of stealth torpedoes, which hadn't yet been seen but must exist.
Those stealth torpedoes would have wiped the stooges out with the first Alpha launch.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:I also suggested Honor do it inside the hyperlimit, so she couldn't be jumped at by a relief force. It seems she stayed outside the entire time.
Smart girl. She better not enter Darius' hyper limit. Why would you want to venture into the dark unknown against an enemy you cannot see. I suggested very early on that the tactics would have to be completely different at Darius.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:One tactic we've suggested and was absent was the small ship probing attack. The GF can send small ships ("expendable") to strafe a target that must be defended, like shipyards.
Good thing they are expendable. LOL
ThinksMarkedly wrote:The MAN has to honour the threat and reveal their defensive plans, or at least part of it. That means breaking stealth of defensive installations necessary to drive the attack away. Maybe the reason we didn't see this at all is that the Mk23 Apollo appears to be much more capable than we last saw it. It seems to now be accurate at 10 light-minutes (180 million km) or so. So Honor didn't have to send anyone, she just sent missiles and those were doing a good job at demolishing the system infrastructure.
They were doing a piss poor job. The Alignment's defense were eating them for lunch. Like the RMN's countermissile defense usually does. At a dug in Darius, considering that CMs are cheap and plentiful, Honor's launches would be eaten. She can't have brought along more missiles than CMs, in a bonafide heavily fortified system. And again, that fleet train will be derailed at Darius.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:The other topic I'd like to mention was the complete ineffectiveness of the Galton capital ships. Yes, they were impeller-driven SDs and SD(P)s, but as discussed in the spoiler thread, they were irrelevant to the story because they were visible when the GF showed up. If any of them tried to get under way, they'd become a cloud of ionised dust before they could get very far. The same applies to capital ships visible at the time the GF arrives in Darius. Maybe the LDs patrolling Darius are running stealth at all times, but there are ships not in patrol, that are down for refits or resupply, or close to a planet so they can be seen by what they obscure, or they're transmitting, or simply at the wrong place at the wrong time. So there'll be a number of MAN capital ships that will be seen the moment the GF arrives and those are toast.
I certainly agree. Actually, I think those ships were only props on a stage of misdirection. No serious navy would have so much production without having produced capital ships. They had to have something there. Or the GA would have asked, "Where are their ships?" They were never meant to put up a real fight.