cthia wrote:But only after OB was it glaringly obvious that it was NOT Haven. And again, the color of rage only made Manticore think of bases, planets, where they could send a squadron or two. Mesa was the perfect place to hide in plain sight. It certainly didn't warrant a squadron at the time.
Well, yes, because Honor was on Haven, with Pritchart and Theisman, discussing the very friendly terms for cessation of hostilities. The Harrington Plan was already in effect and being applied to the closest, big neighbour (considering San Martin was part of the Old Star Kingdom, a neighbour surrounding an enclave of the SEM).
But it was also glaringly obvious at this point that it had to be a state actor. So it couldn't be Manpower as a company.
BTW, the one thing all of the victims have in common is support for the Beowulf Code. In no way is it obvious, and the SL as a victim skews the data since they have unscrupulous elements that patronized slavery. So the fact was well hidden in the data. But, wading through the mire is the job of the best psychological profilers.
But again, compiling a psyche profile for the likes of the MA should be a copper-plated Cordelia Ransom. But, the HV should have the use of extremely capable AIs. There was an abundance of crimes of passion. OB was a crime of passion. And the attempted assassination of Queen Berry was a key nugget.
Haven did have a support for the Beowulf Code and the Cherwell Convention, and yet Haven was not struck. And Beowulf itself was not struck, not at this time. It couldn't have been. In fact, from what we're told most civilised systems included support for the Beowulf Code, including the SL itself.
So I don't think your profile is very good there. It doesn't limit enough.
No, the highest correlation instead was opposition to Haven. Do remember the fact that the mind-control attack on Harrington and on Webster bore a lot of similarities to the Hofschulte Incident attacking Prince Huang Anderman. With OB, all of the big Haven-opposing nations had been attacked.
Before OB, what should have been the give-away was that the Operation Rat Poison attack on Queen Berry was clearly an attack on Queen Berry, not an attack on Manticore. Assassinations were used by the State Sec before, but attacking Queen Berry did not advance Haven's agenda. They were in fact supporting Torch and competing with Manticore in that. With no clear successor who would favour Haven, removing Queen Berry wouldn't have helped Haven at all.
Moreover, OSJ, if he were coordinating that attack, would have waited. There's too little (or nothing!) to gain in attacking Queen Berry alone; but had he waited a little, he would have got Queen Elizabeth or at least some of her high-ranking advisors who would have come for the peace summit. The attack on Berry made Beth stay at home, turtle and direct her anger at Haven. It was completely counter-productive for Haven.
cthia wrote:Indeed! When a murder occurs in a family, family members become natural suspects. OB was responsible for the murder of many family members. So naturally, family is suspected first. In this case it is the "family of natural enemies." The normal suspects simply have to be ruled out first. They are the closest to the crime, statistically. It is the age-old childish prank. If you are standing third in a line of students and you reach around and smack the back of the head of the person standing first in line, who is he naturally going to suspect when he turns around? That is why the MA chose this tactic. It is older than Methuselah and as effective as penicillin. How can you suspect someone who doesn't exist? And how can you suspect someone of committing a crime with advanced weaponry who can't possibly have access to such advanced weaponry? And, what motive would Mesa or Manpower have to commit such an atrocity?
Exactly!
By the way, you forgot the most obvious suspect: the butler.