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To End in Fire

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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue May 11, 2021 10:41 am

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cthia wrote:The SLs industrial might was not hurt. They have been doing this a long time. Most of the League's naval industry is located in his back yard within the Core. No navy needlessly spreads their military industry too wide. Beowulf was a special case whose junction places her essentially within the radius of the Core. Heck, she was cheating and smuggling tech out the back door of the business for years. She wasn't any real industrial use to the League anyway.


I agree the shipbuilding systems aren't spread far and wide. They are somewhat spread, probably the most of any Navy, but not pulverised all over.

Which is all the more reason one or two of those seceding from the League does cause them a significant loss of capabilities. We don't know if Beowulf was one of those, I doubt it. But we do know Sol most likely was, so there goes at least 15% of your military shipbuilding resources.

How many shipbuilding systems have been closed down in the League since the height of its war machine? How many bases have been closed that can now be restarted? Do recall how easily the US repurposed factories for the war effort. In the HV it should be melted down to a science. And there is no shortage of warm bodies in the SL.


Important keywords here are "height" and "war effort." Starting with the latter: the SL is no longer at war and the new constitution will actually empower politicians. How will they justify war-time shipbuilding effort? And how will they justify War-Powers Act conversion of civilian industries? My answer: they won't.

As for the height... how long ago was that? Is it possible that happened before the SD era? The first Manty SD was built in 1750; the SLN probably preceded that by decades, so let's say the SDs started rolling out at the turn of the 18th century. We know that the SLN hadn't fought a war at all in this period, so the entire SD-building period was done at peace. They did build 10000 SDs in that period of about 250 years, so a mighty 40 / year, though that distribution had a bulge in the middle.

The only thing the League needs is one hell of a Project Manager/Director. Kingsford should fit that bill perfectly to rebuild the League. In the meantime, nobody in the GA or the galaxy is coming across the hyper wall.


Not Kingsford, he's the Commander in Chief and a politician. But he can appoint someone.

And he well should. Regardless of whether the industrial might can be there or not, he does need to rebuild his entirely obsolete Navy right now before some adventurous warlord gets improved tech.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by kzt   » Tue May 11, 2021 4:13 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
And therefore he and the new political masters above him can be held responsible for the actions of their industrial contractors. If someone gets money from the SLN, they should be transparent and the SLN should conduct audits periodically to make sure that ships don't disappear when ordered to be scrapped.

The Australian navy isn't responsible for BAE selling warships to the Imperial Chad Navy. Even if BAE is contractor for the Australian navy, and Chad, which is landlocked, doesn't have a navy.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue May 11, 2021 7:11 pm

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kzt wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:
And therefore he and the new political masters above him can be held responsible for the actions of their industrial contractors. If someone gets money from the SLN, they should be transparent and the SLN should conduct audits periodically to make sure that ships don't disappear when ordered to be scrapped.

The Australian navy isn't responsible for BAE selling warships to the Imperial Chad Navy. Even if BAE is contractor for the Australian navy, and Chad, which is landlocked, doesn't have a navy.


Because no one is requiring that of the RAN.

But if someone put a gun to the RAN or RN's head and said "thou shalt audit your contractors or not do business with them" and the threat were credible, they would.

And for a time, that would work too. The spotlight makes wonders.

But then I'm sure the corruption would come back again. Retroactively even.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue May 11, 2021 7:34 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:The opposite of mothballing is not mothballing. You can't keep operating a ship with a skeleton crew. That's the worst of both worlds: the ship is not ready for battle and is still putting wear and tear into its systems. Plus it's a tempting target, since the ships would be spread out and less heavily defended.

No, if you want to have a platform for LACs, make it a hybrid fort / LAC base. For SEM/Haven Union systems, that's the way to go: the fort protects the planet, its population, and major installations, while the LACs project the protection to the hyperlimit.

For non-Union systems, you need a convoy. You're not going to send an SD(P) for that. You're going to send a DD or CL, maybe a CA for a very important convoy or if the CA was going that way anyway.


I was not suggesting using SD(P)s or any other SD as the platform for LAC basing in any system. It would require a very large amount of work and would play havoc with both internal systems arrangements and coverage (such as armor, sensors, counter missile defensive fire) and essentially locking the SD into a system defense role. Which I suggested the LAC base/fort idea. You need such a LAC facility to have protection and you are -reasonably in my opinion- need mobility beyond what station-keeping thrusters are capable of so it can be positioned effectively in the system it is assembled in.
Not sure what a good trade off is for mothballing SDs given the known (to SEM etc) of the Alignment with standoff ability and stealth.
Of course, just how long the existing SDs in commission for SEM are going to last as state of the art tech is a different question but if you don't want to park them somewhere and protect them as is talked about doing with the Manticore System stations, perhaps you need to deploy them in squadrons (in numbers of squadrons, adjusted for perceived need) to nodal locations and keep them working. At the moment, not much is capable of going after even one squadron of SD(p) from the GA.
I'll leave this in RFC's court.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Brigade XO   » Tue May 11, 2021 8:17 pm

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The systems who leave the SL and all those who were not members within the general area controlled by the SL but were trading partners with SL systems and clients are not going to forget about the SL policies. At least at the higher government and business levels, what was going on with the OFS and various agencies was known and essentialy tolerated as part of doing business.

Every one of those non or soon to be non-SL systems will be making choices on who or what they do business with. That includes the clients systems of OFS as OFS is going away and fast. Think the house is burning down around them fast as much of the people who made direct livings off complicity with OFS and the generally tyrants and oligarchs they supposed (to say nothing of TranStellars) either run or get caught up in the problems that descend on the various systems. Or they will meet sticky ends as either former victims catch up with them or the local tyrant kills them off (and takes their assets) to show what a great person the Boss really is and is getting rid of the transstellar parasites and carpetbaggers.

The cost of goods from those systems vs what was being charged to the end purchasers in the Core, other parts of the League and elsewhere may not be going up all that much. What is going to happen is the logistics will change and (hopefully) more money from the sales will stay with the people doing the work etc in each given system instead of sucked out as graft and massive "management fees" for the profit of the transtellars, local government (soon to be ex and or dead) leaders and the cuts to OFS staff and leadership etc.

If the products have value under the former OFS etc system, they will have it now. At least as long as people find products or materials useful, pleasing or cost effective.

The other challenge is what tariffs systems put on imports and what they will treat as contraband of various types. A great part of that is going to be affected by the intent of the Harrington Plan.
Trade and treaties between Star Nations or groups of them. Manticore, for all it's military capability, is a manufacturing and interstellar trading empire. Before and during the Manticore-Haven wars, Manticore was exporting all sorts of goods manufactured at home. Now they are about to be massively larger in the part of the economic area as 1st the systems in the Talbot Quadrant and them the SKM part of Silesia come on-line as part of a single trade economic engine. No internal trade barriers. They will also put the MMM back into the shipping lines with an expanded reach. Have will be open (vastly more than in the prior 50 years) and the shipping routes will be both reestablished and reconfigured through the former SL area and the edges now accesable via Talbot.
Manticore is still the premier trading entity. That's not just because of the Junction and the various warp bridges it had treaties on. It's because the vast majority of the MMM also functioned under the same set of rules, tariff regulations and commercial laws as set by Manticore. Among other things, the majority of them will use the same contracts and legal basis in setting up agreements (pending requirements in various systems) so there is consistence and expectation in dealing. They negotiate, not extort.- yes there is a vast difference.
The other is that Manticore, between it's Department of State, Department of Trade, and the training it's Naval staffs get, have become the standard for Maritime law and Trade law.

The Harrington Plan boils down to making fair agreements in interstellar trade and diplomacy which are not only enforceable but seen and acknowledged fair and mutually beneficial between Star Nations. And holding the citizens of those star nations to the enforcement of the agreements. Trade partners. Nothing says you have to treat every other Star Nation the same or give them the same "price" or deal, but you do have to be consistent within each agreement.
Look at it as Manticore setting the minimum (and a very high one) standard for diplomatic and trade treaties and being able to enforce them......well, at least on the Manticore side.

I expect a lot of OFS people will be running for their lives. I also expect a lot of Solarien Gendarmerie will have to choose where they want to live and how. Do they (can they in some cases) stay where they are and become a citizen of the local System or do they go to where the SL 2.0 thinks they are needed? It's going to get messy
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue May 11, 2021 9:33 pm

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Brigade XO wrote:Of course, just how long the existing SDs in commission for SEM are going to last as state of the art tech is a different question but if you don't want to park them somewhere and protect them as is talked about doing with the Manticore System stations, perhaps you need to deploy them in squadrons (in numbers of squadrons, adjusted for perceived need) to nodal locations and keep them working. At the moment, not much is capable of going after even one squadron of SD(p) from the GA.
I'll leave this in RFC's court.


The last word from RFC, as in the last chapter from UH and he hasn't posted in discussions in the forum since the book has come out, is that a good chunk will be mothballed.

Capital ships never go anywhere alone. Not even just the capital ships in squadron strength: they always have cruisers and destroyers riding along. So for every 6 to 16 SD(P)s you deploy somewhere so they are not in a central place, you're sending a handful of smaller ships plus a fleet train. If your objective was to get area coverage, you've failed, because you're concentrating your ships. Keep those SD(P)s at home and then their support ships can go elsewhere to patrol what needs patrolling. Keep them in mothballs and you free up the crew of one single SD(P) for a dozen DDs or light cruisers.

So I think we will have a great deal of SD(P)s being added to the reserve and being cycled into and out of commission as time goes by. Those that are in active commission may be stationed on SEM primary systems: the MBS, Trevor's Star, Spindle, and whatever passes for Silesia Quadrant Capital. Nowhere else, unless war breaks out again.

And expect that they never leave those systems, since one of their jobs (at least the MBS and Trevor's Star ones) will be protecting their brethren that is inactive.

And since cthia is fond of talking about the strategy of coming up close to the ships with a stealth platform and blowing them up, those active SD(P)s won't be sitting there with nodes cold. They will be moving around, following more or less random or 3D zig-zag routes around their AO. That puts wear on their nodes and time on every system's clock.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Brigade XO   » Wed May 12, 2021 8:21 pm

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Ok, mothballs for many, "normal" major nodal system reaction force/ reserve protections grouping for the key SEM systems and swap out mothballed ships as required to cover routine maintenance etc.

It will be interesting to see what RFC comes up with for the short term and then the 5-10 year periods between UH and the next book as the GA works though the changes and evolutions of SL 2.0 and the newly independent. Then there is just for SEM with Talbott and Silesia to continue to build out and bring (particularly Silesia) into the Empire as fully functioning partners who are absorbing the SEM ways of doing things.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by cthia   » Thu May 13, 2021 12:55 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:The SLs industrial might was not hurt. They have been doing this a long time. Most of the League's naval industry is located in his back yard within the Core. No navy needlessly spreads their military industry too wide. Beowulf was a special case whose junction places her essentially within the radius of the Core. Heck, she was cheating and smuggling tech out the back door of the business for years. She wasn't any real industrial use to the League anyway.


I agree the shipbuilding systems aren't spread far and wide. They are somewhat spread, probably the most of any Navy, but not pulverised all over.

Which is all the more reason one or two of those seceding from the League does cause them a significant loss of capabilities. We don't know if Beowulf was one of those, I doubt it. But we do know Sol most likely was, so there goes at least 15% of your military shipbuilding resources.

How many shipbuilding systems have been closed down in the League since the height of its war machine? How many bases have been closed that can now be restarted? Do recall how easily the US repurposed factories for the war effort. In the HV it should be melted down to a science. And there is no shortage of warm bodies in the SL.


Important keywords here are "height" and "war effort." Starting with the latter: the SL is no longer at war and the new constitution will actually empower politicians. How will they justify war-time shipbuilding effort? And how will they justify War-Powers Act conversion of civilian industries? My answer: they won't.

As for the height... how long ago was that? Is it possible that happened before the SD era? The first Manty SD was built in 1750; the SLN probably preceded that by decades, so let's say the SDs started rolling out at the turn of the 18th century. We know that the SLN hadn't fought a war at all in this period, so the entire SD-building period was done at peace. They did build 10000 SDs in that period of about 250 years, so a mighty 40 / year, though that distribution had a bulge in the middle.

The only thing the League needs is one hell of a Project Manager/Director. Kingsford should fit that bill perfectly to rebuild the League. In the meantime, nobody in the GA or the galaxy is coming across the hyper wall.


Not Kingsford, he's the Commander in Chief and a politician. But he can appoint someone.

And he well should. Regardless of whether the industrial might can be there or not, he does need to rebuild his entirely obsolete Navy right now before some adventurous warlord gets improved tech.

Sol represents 15% of the SL's shipbuilding resources? Perhaps. Hardly, but perhaps. Sol certainly does not represent 15% of the SL's absolute shipbuilding resources which exceed the combined effort of all of the remaining galaxy combined by 1000%. And again, there is no fear that they will be attacked again by the GA or anyone else, (MA notwithstanding).

They don't have to justify a wartime shipbuilding effort. The SL has to replace their entire Navy because right now they are vulnerable, and have been thrust aside as a third rate navy. None of the citizens in the SL or it's government is going to stand for that. They certainly cannot enforce the edict as they are. And that means the average citizen might again experience cold sweats of the Cold War - a time when EEV's were served up cold.

Kingsford can appoint someone, yes, but he may be needed to guide anyone he might appoint. The Mandarins created a centuries old mess that no mere mortal can hope to tackle as a virgin.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu May 13, 2021 12:24 pm

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cthia wrote:Sol represents 15% of the SL's shipbuilding resources? Perhaps. Hardly, but perhaps. Sol certainly does not represent 15% of the SL's absolute shipbuilding resources which exceed the combined effort of all of the remaining galaxy combined by 1000%. And again, there is no fear that they will be attacked again by the GA or anyone else, (MA notwithstanding).


We're talking about military shipbuilding, but even for overall shipbuilding, but please note that your "1000%" is in the correct order of magnitude, but the number is misleading. Note these facts:

First, the merchant marine fleets. We know that the Manticoran shipping was something like a third of overall commerce in the League. Maybe that's a disproportionate number because those ships, having access to the Junction, made far more trips and thus were responsible for a bigger chunk of the economy than their numbers warranted. But even if we divide by 3 again, the number of hulls would be something like 1/9 of all League coming from Manticore. If we allow for all other entities being responsible for another 1/9, then the SL must have built only 7/9 of all the merchant ships. That makes their shipbuilding 3.5x bigger than the rest of the Galaxy combined (350%).

Now let's talk about the number of SDs. We know the SLN had 10000 SDs built over 250 years. But the Haven sector must have built 2500 in the same period. The PRH had 412 before the first war and the SKM had 186 (we can assume those are all that had ever been built). By the end of the second war, the entire PN fleet was scrapped, decommissioned or had been destroyed, and the RHN fielded 1000 brand, new SD(P)s; the Manticoran Alliance at the time had 400 to 500 SD(P)s too, to the point pre-pod SDs are noise. If you add it all, we come up to 2000 to 2000 SD and SD(P) built in the same period that the SLN built 10000. That's a 5x, which is 500%.

And that belies the fact that the SL built 40/year on average and was much slower in the last 10 years, whereas the Haven Sector built 1500 ships in less than 10 years, so 150/year. So if we look at the most recent decade, the Haven Sector output was 4x or more the SL output.

So at best I can agree that the current SL can build 5x more civilian ships than everyone else combined. The SL 2.0 will be less. And the military shipbuilding is not in the SL's advantage, in the short-term.

They don't have to justify a wartime shipbuilding effort. The SL has to replace their entire Navy because right now they are vulnerable, and have been thrust aside as a third rate navy. None of the citizens in the SL or it's government is going to stand for that. They certainly cannot enforce the edict as they are. And that means the average citizen might again experience cold sweats of the Cold War - a time when EEV's were served up cold.

Kingsford can appoint someone, yes, but he may be needed to guide anyone he might appoint. The Mandarins created a centuries old mess that no mere mortal can hope to tackle as a virgin.


Of course they can enforce the edict. Their ships are still the best in the Galaxy, short of the GA. That argument is not going to fly.

But yes they have to rebuild the navy. I'm not doubting it will happen. I'm saying it won't be a war-time effort, which means they won't be building more than their average of 40/year and even that stride won't be hit for another decade. That means I expect them to hit the RHN equivalent of 1000 SD(P)s no earlier than 1960 PD.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by kzt   » Thu May 13, 2021 2:14 pm

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The SLs current build rate for SDs was basically the minimum for industrial base preservation. The didn’t think the needed more SDs but if you shut down all the yards it is very painful, expensive and time consuming to reopen.

So they can certainly build more than they do without a lot of effort or massive capital investment. But likely some staff, which probably has a several year training cycle before they are fully capable employees. Plus there are long lead-time items that have to be ordered.

So 40 per year in say two years without major investments, building ships that are within the capabilities of the industrial infrastructure of the yards.

If you want more than that it will likely require significant capital investment. But it is possible that building modern ships will require significant capital investment. Which could also be used to upgrade the yards building FF BCs.

So I’m not at all certain that they won’t build at quite a bit higher rate one things get rolling. Having a new core of low thousands of SDs in ten-fifteen years.
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