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To End in Fire

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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Eagleeye   » Tue May 04, 2021 4:59 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:I still don't think the League's industrial might was hurt one bit. Perhaps it's absolute potential may have been hurt. But I'm willing to bet that the SL's true industrial might never even came close to being tapped. I always thought the oldest Core systems represented the hub of military industry. Why would an entity needlessly spread it's naval industry too wide? Allowing an enemy to cut off supply lines.


Hey cthia, let me see if I understand you.

On one hand you're saying that the absolute potential was reduced because many systems walked away. But on the other, you're saying that the industrial potential wasn't really reached before, so the SL can recover to pre-war industrial levels. The facts may be both true, but you're comparing apples and oranges at best.

Or did you mean to say that the systems that walked away can't be but a drop in the bucket? If so, I don't agree: Beowulf alone must have represented a significant fraction and so must have Sol.


Define "significant fraction". The SL had around 2000 systems at the time Honor came calling. Say, 5%, or 100 of them, were Core Systems (CS). So, the loss of one such system means more or less 1% of the industrial capacity of the CS and maybe around 0.1% of the industrial capacity af all SL-Systems. Beowulf and Sol may be a little bit more important, but I doubt that they both together represent more than 3 % of the CS-industrial capacity and no more than 0.3% of that of the whole League. I admit, that's still a mindboggling loss in absolute numbers - but significant? The loss of the Frontier-Fleet-Empire in the Fringe of the League is by far more significant, in my opinion.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue May 04, 2021 2:08 pm

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Eagleeye wrote:Define "significant fraction". The SL had around 2000 systems at the time Honor came calling. Say, 5%, or 100 of them, were Core Systems (CS). So, the loss of one such system means more or less 1% of the industrial capacity of the CS and maybe around 0.1% of the industrial capacity af all SL-Systems. Beowulf and Sol may be a little bit more important, but I doubt that they both together represent more than 3 % of the CS-industrial capacity and no more than 0.3% of that of the whole League. I admit, that's still a mindboggling loss in absolute numbers - but significant? The loss of the Frontier-Fleet-Empire in the Fringe of the League is by far more significant, in my opinion.


All systems are not created equal. You can't compare systems with 10+ billion population, settled for nigh on 2000 years, and founding members of the League to a recently added Shell system with a population under 100 million. On average, yes, each system corresponds to 1/2000th of the industrial output, but averages are deceiving. In the words of Hari Seldon in one of the Foundation later books, "three mathematicians went duck hunting; the first shot a meter high, the second shot a meter low and the third exclaimed 'we got it!'"

As I said a couple of posts ago, the distribution must have a very long tail dropping off. Even Core systems, so even saying that 100 Core systems correspond to 90% of the production, thus each Core is on average 0.9% is misleading. If the same distribution held, then 5% of the Core systems would correspond to 90% of the 90% of the SL industrial output. That is, 5 systems for 81%... I think that's a bit of a stretch, though.

But saying that the Top 10 correspond to 40 or 50% of the League is not beyond the realm of possibility. That would place Sol and Beowulf at about 4 or 5% of the full SL. Add one or two more of those leaving the League, then another 30% of the Next 90 Core, and you leave a big dent behind.

Then there's the fact we're not taking into consideration the fact that the systems that left will still want to do commerce with the League. So going back to cthia's point that whatever is left in the League can simply be more efficient and reach the same levels as before, unequivocally no they can't. First, there was a reason the efficiency and productivity was at the levels they were, asking it to double at the drop of the hat is not going to happen. And second, because of said commerce, the Law of Supply and Demand will still rule, even with import tariffs, the overall productivity of the Settled Galaxy is still about the same.

Now, if you want to talk about military industry, that's a whole different story because of embargoes in export. But as discussed last year, the Manty/Havenite Export versions should be the default ask for any system that left the League.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Theemile   » Tue May 04, 2021 2:51 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Eagleeye wrote:Define "significant fraction". The SL had around 2000 systems at the time Honor came calling. Say, 5%, or 100 of them, were Core Systems (CS). So, the loss of one such system means more or less 1% of the industrial capacity of the CS and maybe around 0.1% of the industrial capacity af all SL-Systems. Beowulf and Sol may be a little bit more important, but I doubt that they both together represent more than 3 % of the CS-industrial capacity and no more than 0.3% of that of the whole League. I admit, that's still a mindboggling loss in absolute numbers - but significant? The loss of the Frontier-Fleet-Empire in the Fringe of the League is by far more significant, in my opinion.


All systems are not created equal. You can't compare systems with 10+ billion population, settled for nigh on 2000 years, and founding members of the League to a recently added Shell system with a population under 100 million. On average, yes, each system corresponds to 1/2000th of the industrial output, but averages are deceiving. In the words of Hari Seldon in one of the Foundation later books, "three mathematicians went duck hunting; the first shot a meter high, the second shot a meter low and the third exclaimed 'we got it!'"

As I said a couple of posts ago, the distribution must have a very long tail dropping off. Even Core systems, so even saying that 100 Core systems correspond to 90% of the production, thus each Core is on average 0.9% is misleading. If the same distribution held, then 5% of the Core systems would correspond to 90% of the 90% of the SL industrial output. That is, 5 systems for 81%... I think that's a bit of a stretch, though.

But saying that the Top 10 correspond to 40 or 50% of the League is not beyond the realm of possibility. That would place Sol and Beowulf at about 4 or 5% of the full SL. Add one or two more of those leaving the League, then another 30% of the Next 90 Core, and you leave a big dent behind.

Then there's the fact we're not taking into consideration the fact that the systems that left will still want to do commerce with the League. So going back to cthia's point that whatever is left in the League can simply be more efficient and reach the same levels as before, unequivocally no they can't. First, there was a reason the efficiency and productivity was at the levels they were, asking it to double at the drop of the hat is not going to happen. And second, because of said commerce, the Law of Supply and Demand will still rule, even with import tariffs, the overall productivity of the Settled Galaxy is still about the same.

Now, if you want to talk about military industry, that's a whole different story because of embargoes in export. But as discussed last year, the Manty/Havenite Export versions should be the default ask for any system that left the League.


Adding: the latest additions to the SL are planets which have been plundered by the OFS and transstellars, then finally grown to the level that they can petition to join the SL (we don't know what those particulars are. But remember, one of the planets in SoF (one of the Eastern European lineage planets with indecipherable names, sorry - but having both in the same book was just too much to keep all the events separated) joined OFS because it couldn't afford to provide a simple galaxy standard vaccine for a plague nor could afford to replace their navigation and telecommunication satellites when destroyed. The average RMN CA carries sufficient short term drones accomplish this task for multiple months as part of it's basic kit.) So these planets have very small economies and industrial output compared to the galactic level. Even after a century under OFS's tender mercies, their industrial output is infinitesimal compared to a Beowulf or a Sol.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by SharkHunter   » Wed May 05, 2021 7:32 am

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--snipping--
Theemile wrote:Oh, the SL got hurt.
Militarily, they lost 1/2 of the active Battle Fleet, and a couple percent of FF. They lost 1/4 of the reserve, their largest BF maintenance, construction, and R&D site.

On the industrial side, Sol got 100% punched out and they had Hypatia, Beowulf and another 1/2 dozen core worlds walk away. It's not much, but a few % of their economy - but those were integral % that may have far reaching effects, especially with the wormhole shutdown and the withdrawal of freighters from the SL.

But... IT's a speed bump - 12-14 months later and all the woes caused will be replaced - except for the blown up SDs..

I disagree. Not that I'm renting an office in RFC's authorial mind space tower, but having captured the mind-trust a Ganymede, does anyone doubt that the GA wouldn't immediately move to capture Yildun, etc.? i.e. the only state of the art production yards from where the SLN gets their stuff and not coincidentally, where much of the corruption was centralized?

Analogously, let's play "alt-history" and make the Honoverse transtellars somewhat like the robber-baron railroad companies in the US, post-Civil war. As long as they had the 7th Army to back them up and squash everybody else, they did what they wanted, pretty much aided and abetted by the monied interests in the Northeast. In this "alt-history", the "GA" states o Ohio, Illinois, likely Missouri, and definitely Texas putting an effective embargo in place controlling who can use the waterways and bridges over the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri rivers, and then whack the 7th Army's supply depot, etc. No new cannons, horses, or more modern firearms.

Do the 1500 "communities" resent the embargo? Maybe. So long as they can now boot the robber baron railroad companies, stop the endemic corruption, and maintain order? Live and let live, probably. Do the "core systems" of the eastern seaboard resent their losses? You bet they do, But they also don't have control over the westward rail lines or the telegraph.


Meanwhile, this fictional 19th century GA is going on a grand tour out in the verge, installing the battlefield equivalents of 21st-century mortar fire units, mid-level attack aircraft, and radar-guided everything...

AKA it isn't the old league that is the menace.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Theemile   » Wed May 05, 2021 8:35 am

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SharkHunter wrote:--snipping--
Theemile wrote:Oh, the SL got hurt.
Militarily, they lost 1/2 of the active Battle Fleet, and a couple percent of FF. They lost 1/4 of the reserve, their largest BF maintenance, construction, and R&D site.

On the industrial side, Sol got 100% punched out and they had Hypatia, Beowulf and another 1/2 dozen core worlds walk away. It's not much, but a few % of their economy - but those were integral % that may have far reaching effects, especially with the wormhole shutdown and the withdrawal of freighters from the SL.

But... IT's a speed bump - 12-14 months later and all the woes caused will be replaced - except for the blown up SDs..

I disagree. Not that I'm renting an office in RFC's authorial mind space tower, but having captured the mind-trust a Ganymede, does anyone doubt that the GA wouldn't immediately move to capture Yildun, etc.? i.e. the only state of the art production yards from where the SLN gets their stuff and not coincidentally, where much of the corruption was centralized?

Analogously, let's play "alt-history" and make the Honoverse transtellars somewhat like the robber-baron railroad companies in the US, post-Civil war. As long as they had the 7th Army to back them up and squash everybody else, they did what they wanted, pretty much aided and abetted by the monied interests in the Northeast. In this "alt-history", the "GA" states o Ohio, Illinois, likely Missouri, and definitely Texas putting an effective embargo in place controlling who can use the waterways and bridges over the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri rivers, and then whack the 7th Army's supply depot, etc. No new cannons, horses, or more modern firearms.

Do the 1500 "communities" resent the embargo? Maybe. So long as they can now boot the robber baron railroad companies, stop the endemic corruption, and maintain order? Live and let live, probably. Do the "core systems" of the eastern seaboard resent their losses? You bet they do, But they also don't have control over the westward rail lines or the telegraph.


Meanwhile, this fictional 19th century GA is going on a grand tour out in the verge, installing the battlefield equivalents of 21st-century mortar fire units, mid-level attack aircraft, and radar-guided everything...

AKA it isn't the old league that is the menace.


Honor already laid the GA terms to Sol & the SL in UH, and as of the end of UH, the SL was complying. Yildune was not a part of any GA terms at that time. I would think the GA is done... unless the SL wants to push their luck.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by SharkHunter   » Wed May 05, 2021 7:16 pm

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--grinning like Nimitz playing frisbee--
Theemile wrote:Honor already laid the GA terms to Sol & the SL in UH, and as of the end of UH, the SL was complying. Yildune was not a part of any GA terms at that time. I would think the GA is done... unless the SL wants to push their luck.


Agreed!! Until they get to the part of the documentation that says... well okay, I don't know what it says. But I expect some treecats on shoulders led by youz knowz whoz... to uncover enough nasty bits out there in the verge for at least one star nation or fleet to go adventuring.

Then again Jackson really wasn't commanded to capture Florida. Oh wait! That's from another Weber / Flint collaboration....
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed May 05, 2021 11:15 pm

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Theemile wrote:Honor already laid the GA terms to Sol & the SL in UH, and as of the end of UH, the SL was complying. Yildune was not a part of any GA terms at that time. I would think the GA is done... unless the SL wants to push their luck.


Yildun is not part of the League. It's not even an inhabited system, aside from the Technodyne sites, so it may not even have a government per se[*]. So the terms to the League couldn't be that Yildun should be transferred over, because it's not possible to make that demand.

Even demanding an embargo would be unreasonable. Not forever, anyway. There needs to be a set of goals that, once reached, the embargo gets lifted.

Demanding transparency on SL's dealings with its arms vendors, yes, that could be in the fine print accompanying the disbanding of the OFS and their "losing" of FF ships to warlords.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed May 05, 2021 11:27 pm

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SharkHunter wrote:I disagree. Not that I'm renting an office in RFC's authorial mind space tower, but having captured the mind-trust a Ganymede, does anyone doubt that the GA wouldn't immediately move to capture Yildun, etc.? i.e. the only state of the art production yards from where the SLN gets their stuff and not coincidentally, where much of the corruption was centralized?


Yes, I think they wouldn't.

It's definitely not about obtaining secrets, since the GA already has all of them. There's no intel to be obtained at Yildun, short of maybe some experimental development done since the last courier boat arrived with the database update. But since Ganymede Station is now no more, Yildun won't have received some updates and I expect that there was a lot done in Ganymede due to the push from the SLN.

Yildun is also not part of the League, so the GA invading and seizing them would be an act of aggression against a third party. Not neutral party, but at least a third party. It might be justified, if TIY is found guilty of accusations like arms smuggling, but I don't think the GA will go there. Instead, it'll put pressure on the SL and SLN to ensure TIY stops the smuggling and holding the SL responsible for it.

Third, Yildun is probably not the only other site for TIY besides Ganymede. They must have production sites in half a dozen other sites, within and without the League. Some of those might even be in neutral, sovereign systems, so invading those would be inadvisable. Imagine if one of those is now part of the RF. I don't doubt that Yildun is their premier R&D site and probably accounts for either the majority or the largest minority of Technodyne's output. So it's possible that losing both Ganymede and Yildun could cripple the company, but maybe it doesn't.

Finally, what's the benefit of stopping Technodyne? Isn't it better to have "the devil you know?" If Technodyne disappeared, its vacuum would be filled by someone else and predicting who that might be so the GA spies can pay attention may not be evident. There won't be a big delay for those others setting up either, since TIY would need to rebuild all their yards and redesign everything for pod-launching SDs and for MDM production, neither of which we're told they had cracked yet anyway. It's going to be capital-intensive either way and the capital will be there, because the SLN will need to buy from someone.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by Eagleeye   » Thu May 06, 2021 4:01 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Yildun is also not part of the League, so the GA invading and seizing them would be an act of aggression against a third party. Not neutral party, but at least a third party. It might be justified, if TIY is found guilty of accusations like arms smuggling, but I don't think the GA will go there. Instead, it'll put pressure on the SL and SLN to ensure TIY stops the smuggling and holding the SL responsible for it.


What SLN? At the moment, there isn't a SLN at all - aside from some cruiser squadrons or SD-divisions maybe, which are stationed in other member systems. Anything else is scrap metal. And I wonder how long these squadrons and divisions remain a part of the SLN - in other words: how many of these systems decide to leave the Solarian League and take the Navy ships and crews with them as soon as the news about what happened in the Sol System gets there.

Any solarian ships in the Fringe were already declared pirats, if they don't return to the League proper in time (4 weeks? Something like that. iIrc). But I doubt, that many of them will (or even can) return - because that depends to a great part on the decisions of the local or regional OFS-potentate. If they plan to turn into War-Lords ... well

Anyway - At the moment, there is no Solarian League Navy. Not as a coherent force you have to reckon with. And there wont be for at least some years to come.
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Re: To End in Fire
Post by munroburton   » Thu May 06, 2021 4:31 am

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The thing being overlooked is just how many systems are within the volume somewhat sloppily referred to as the League's Core, systems which are not League members and have been independent ever since before a League existed.

The SLN carried out Operation Buccaneer successfully in seven of these. This should have great implications for how all those system governments should react - going forwards, they now should regard a revanchist SL as their greatest possible threat and take what steps they may to counter a repeat of Sol's government going rogue.

Best case, they all build up forts and LAC swarms. Worst case, they go straight to power projection capability because if something the size of the League comes for you, as Honor proved, they need to be able to show up at Sol with a big enough stick to be heard.
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