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Attacking Darius:

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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:40 pm

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munroburton wrote:The sixty SD(P)s detached to Sigma Draconis under Alice Truman's command could have done that by themselves. The SLN truly had no idea how utterly outclassed it was and its ignorance ran so deeply that the GA's main difficulty at Second Manticore was amassing enough wallers to convince Filareta and Tsang that they were indeed hopelessly outgunned.


Remember that Terekhov dealt with Crandall's 70 SDs with a single squadron of heavy cruisers. Adm. Gold Peak didn't even have to come out of stealth with her battlecruisers.

Those were Apollo missiles, but they weren't the system defence type. So the RMN could have defeated Tsang with a squadron of cruisers (suitably provisioned by colliers) and a mere two waves of Mk23, and defeated Filareta with just the fixed defences in Sphinx firing the Mk42s.

Home Fleet wouldn't have been needed; Honor and Theisman could have been elsewhere chatting.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by cthia   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:55 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
tlb wrote:Also the system defense variety of Apollo cannot be stored in ships' magazines and would unlikely to be in colliers except as actually needed to transport them between systems. Finally you cannot remove most of those at forts or Basilisk or Trevor's Star, because there is still an ongoing war.


Right, remember that OB happened while Honor was in Nouveau Paris negotiating with Pritchart, which means:

1) the war with Haven wasn't over, only at cease-fire. Production of war matériel hadn't stopped since First Manticore, in May 1921 (this is Feb 1922).

2) Eighth Fleet was deployed, which means they had a fleet train of some sort. Probably not enough for sustained operations, because that was not the intention. But they were facing the RHN Capital Fleet, so if battle did break out, they would have wanted to have resources at hand to conflict right then and there.

3) Trevor's Star was still the premier launching spot for fighting Haven, so the ammunitions and supplies would have been deployed forward there. That system was also closed to foreign civilian traffic, so it was more secure than the MBS. Spies can tell what's at the Junction, but not at Trevor's Star.

4) Eighth Fleet existed again, which means Home Fleet had been reincorporated, which means they were stocked.

So OB did definitely destroy a lot of the stocked supplies that were aboard the stations. But it didn't touch anything stored elsewhere, which means the GA definitely had more stock than just what was in the magazines.

I don't know guys, didn't it come out of text that the only missiles available were those in magazines? I took that at face value. Partly because it was in the text, iinm, partly because I think it was the author's intent to dial up the drama, and partly because the MA designed OB to severely handicap the RMN. I don't think they would have made essentially the same mistake the Japanese made of leaving the oil fields intact at Pearl. They seemed to have pretty good Intel.

Storing missiles in other systems other than the MBS may or may not be sound. It seems you would want your missile supply to be safely esconced behind the walls of your most secure system. Besides, you may be cut off from that supply if that system is overrun or if the junction is shut down for hours.

I suggested in another thread that the RMN may be able to commandeer missiles from the forts if need be. I agree with Jonathan there, if...

I recall asking, or intending to ask, whether the forts would also have internal magazines. It seems they would since they are tactically mobile.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:12 pm

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kzt wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:But in addition to the missiles in the ships' magazines you'd have missiles in the missile colliers, missiles in various forts' magazines; likely reloads in warehouses out by the Junction, there would have been substantial missile reloads stored at fleet bases like Trevor's Star.

So, yes, Manticore had a finite number of missiles. But that number should have been far in excess of just the magazine capacity of their ships.

When does a navy have it’s ammunition storage areas? In my experience people who are responsible for very deadly and expensive weapons want have them stored on facilities that is owned by them protected by their armed guards, not stored in random u-store storage warehouses scattered around the countryside. Have you ever seen the episode of Storage Wars where they opened up the door and found it was full of FGM-148 Javelin missiles the Army forgot to pay the bill on? Me neither.

So when you blow up the three largest and most important naval bases of the RMN…
No, any reloads at the Junction wouldn't be in random commercial warehouses -- they'd be in some navy armory depot warehouse station (or section of a station) -- there for quick resupply of the forts or potentially of RMN warships passing through.

But even if there aren't reloads out at the Junction, if they prefer to ship those in from the naval depots of Manticore-A you'd still have significant missile stockpiles at Trevor's Star and other advanced fleet bases.

Because, no, the Army doesn't store their anti-tank missiles in random U-store self-storage. But neither does it ship direct just in time replacements to Army units worldwide from secure armories in the continental US.
There are significant stocks of such missiles on Army bases throughout Europe, Korea, and the Middle East -- so that if a shooting war does unexpectedly start the units involved will have days to weeks of consumables close enough that their organic logistics (trucks generally) can grab it and bring it forward to them; without having to wait for additional weapons to be flow (or slower, sent by freighter) from the US.


And during the Cold War, in Europe, the Army had Reforger. Where entire units stationed in the US had complete duplicate sets of weapons and vehicles, along with ammo and supply stockpiles, prepositioned in Europe. Just so that if the Soviets invaded the Army could get additional armored or mechanized units into the field in days -- because they'd only need to fly the personnel over. (The vehicles, supplies, and ammo are too heavy and bulky to effectively airlift in quantity - so if it had to be transported to US ports and convoyed over to Europe the reinforcements would be weeks away). Militaries like having distributed and forward placed fuel, weapons, and supplies -- so stuff is available as close as practical to the fighting, and so that a single destroyed facility or storage location eliminated only a fraction of your total inventory.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by cthia   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:33 pm

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kzt wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:But in addition to the missiles in the ships' magazines you'd have missiles in the missile colliers, missiles in various forts' magazines; likely reloads in warehouses out by the Junction, there would have been substantial missile reloads stored at fleet bases like Trevor's Star.

So, yes, Manticore had a finite number of missiles. But that number should have been far in excess of just the magazine capacity of their ships.

When does a navy have it’s ammunition storage areas? In my experience people who are responsible for very deadly and expensive weapons want have them stored on facilities that is owned by them protected by their armed guards, not stored in random u-store storage warehouses scattered around the countryside. Have you ever seen the episode of Storage Wars where they opened up the door and found it was full of FGM-148 Javelin missiles the Army forgot to pay the bill on? Me neither.

So when you blow up the three largest and most important naval bases of the RMN…
Jonathan_S wrote:No, any reloads at the Junction wouldn't be in random commercial warehouses -- they'd be in some navy armory depot warehouse station (or section of a station) -- there for quick resupply of the forts or potentially of RMN warships passing through.

But even if there aren't reloads out at the Junction, if they prefer to ship those in from the naval depots of Manticore-A you'd still have significant missile stockpiles at Trevor's Star and other advanced fleet bases.

Because, no, the Army doesn't store their anti-tank missiles in random U-store self-storage. But neither does it ship direct just in time replacements to Army units worldwide from secure armories in the continental US.
There are significant stocks of such missiles on Army bases throughout Europe, Korea, and the Middle East -- so that if a shooting war does unexpectedly start the units involved will have days to weeks of consumables close enough that their organic logistics (trucks generally) can grab it and bring it forward to them; without having to wait for additional weapons to be flow (or slower, sent by freighter) from the US.


And during the Cold War, in Europe, the Army had Reforger. Where entire units stationed in the US had complete duplicate sets of weapons and vehicles, along with ammo and supply stockpiles, prepositioned in Europe. Just so that if the Soviets invaded the Army could get additional armored or mechanized units into the field in days -- because they'd only need to fly the personnel over. (The vehicles, supplies, and ammo are too heavy and bulky to effectively airlift in quantity - so if it had to be transported to US ports and convoyed over to Europe the reinforcements would be weeks away). Militaries like having distributed and forward placed fuel, weapons, and supplies -- so stuff is available as close as practical to the fighting, and so that a single destroyed facility or storage location eliminated only a fraction of your total inventory.

You make a good point Jonathan, but I don't think any of it was written in stone under the circumstances. First, there is textev? And last, could it be counted on that any peripheral supply stations were not dangerously low as well?

Remember, after OB the RMN was between a rock and a hard place, faced with being attacked by both Haven and Sol. Having their supply interrupted, any other supplies may have already been commandeered by the Home System and everyone else may have been sucking hind teat. We know Henke wasn't, but I am sure there were no more demonstration launches. But was that memo received in time?

On several occasions we saw fleet trains and even warships commandeered. At any rate, I don't think we can assume there were any missiles anywhere in storage after restocking the Home System, and restocking peripheral interests, like Henke.

Also, I imagine the MBS to be the central dispatch location of the colliers, being they would receive orders for reloads and they are also the location of all of the Intel. IOW, colliers would have been en route from the MBS all of the time during war.

Damn, we shouldn't have sent those last fleet trains!

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by Jonathan_S   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 3:41 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:NO ONE had so far sent 437 SDs in any attack, ever. Why would the SLN not think that was enough?

But if they did think it wasn't, then they wouldn't have launched in the first place. Or they'd have had to wait another year to collect enough forces, time which the Mandarins didn't have and the MAlign didn't allow them. Lacoön was already in operation at this point.

True. For the Battle of Manticore Haven "only" sent 330 SD(P)s... And lost.
(And without even being engaged by the system's fixed defenses)

If the SLN had assumed that an SD(P) was even just twice as effective as an SD they should have realized they brought far too few units; as they only brought 1/3rd more wallers than Haven had.


Which is probably just another way of saying that if the League had good intel, which their Mandarins believed, they'd have deescalated the situation with Manticore (probably by throwing their dead commanders under the bus) and gotten busy designing and building a proper modern navy before throwing their weight around again in the Haven section.
This was a war of choice on their part and they easily could have chosen not to have it; or at least not to have it right now.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by munroburton   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:30 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:Remember that Terekhov dealt with Crandall's 70 SDs with a single squadron of heavy cruisers. Adm. Gold Peak didn't even have to come out of stealth with her battlecruisers.

Those were Apollo missiles, but they weren't the system defence type. So the RMN could have defeated Tsang with a squadron of cruisers (suitably provisioned by colliers) and a mere two waves of Mk23, and defeated Filareta with just the fixed defences in Sphinx firing the Mk42s.

Home Fleet wouldn't have been needed; Honor and Theisman could have been elsewhere chatting.


I've already suggested how data from the Battle of Spindle should let the RMN improve their targeting effectiveness against SLN SDs after a bit of post-battle analysis.

More precisely, Terekhov's cruisers used the Apollo loadout of approximately 1.2 Invictus to target 24 SDs in one salvo, 500 missiles per target. All 24 were somewhere between unservicable hulks and completely destroyed after that salvo. They "wasted" one more such salvo as a demonstration and had a third ready to fire.

This shows that the podload of less than four Invictus is sufficient to render ineffective seventy-five SDs. That's "only" a ratio of 1:20. 1:40 is easily achievable by assigning 250 missiles per target rather than 500.

That may not destroy as many SDs outright, but those SDs are going to be in no condition to do anything after that economised pounding.

cthia wrote:I don't know guys, didn't it come out of text that the only missiles available were those in magazines? I took that at face value. Partly because it was in the text, iinm, partly because I think it was the author's intent to dial up the drama, and partly because the MA designed OB to severely handicap the RMN. I don't think they would have made essentially the same mistake the Japanese made of leaving the oil fields intact at Pearl. They seemed to have pretty good Intel.


It is almost a dramatic myth. The MA's designs required for Haven to continue attacking Manticore at the same time the SLN shows up. The RMN was only ever going to be short of missiles if Rajampet and - more importantly! - Theisman kept throwing hundreds of SDs into their system. I think they badly misread Theisman/Pritchart(who by this point had realised Giancola had doctored the diplomatic correspondence which led to Haven restarting the war), among other misjudgements.

The MA hoped for the "python lump" to be destroyed before it left the Manticoran shipyards. No luck there; those would have been fully loaded with ammo, as well as any fleet train attached to them.

The MA also did not attack Trevor's Star, which had some seed maintenance facilities capable of being expanded and converted into producing at least thousands of Apollo control birds as well as the pods required to repackage their currently existing stockpiles of MK23s.

It's simple. Albrecht panicked after he heard about Apollo's unveiling at Lovat because he realised that it had vastly increased the RMN SD(P)'s kill ratio, especially against SLN SDs, to the extent that the League's colossal battle wall suddenly meant nothing. He then attempted to create a window of opportunity for Manticore to be defeated, to avoid a serious delay to the Alignment's plans. It was a dubious proposition at best, since Manticore was already sitting in the Haven system with an armed fleet and negotiating peace when the spiders did their party trick.

The situation the SLN had gotten themselves into is hard to compare, but it'd be as if the British Navy had ignored the ironclad-battleship-dreadnought evolution and then sortied for the Battle of Jutland with 500 cannon-armed wooden ships against the actual High Seas Fleet reinforced by the American, French and Russian WW1 navies.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by tlb   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:44 pm

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munroburton wrote:The MA also did not attack Trevor's Star, which had some seed maintenance facilities capable of being expanded and converted into producing at least thousands of Apollo control birds as well as the pods required to repackage their currently existing stockpiles of MK23s.

It was my understanding that Beowulf was producing all those missiles (including the control birds), because what maintenance facilities that Manticore had remaining were going to be strained just helping rebuild the replacement orbital structures.

Here the RFC quote (I will work to get a pointer to this text):
runsforcelery wrote:One of the big elements in Manticore's edge in shipbuilding and munitions production was that the SKM had improved incrementally at almost every stage of the process, including (especially) printer capabilities and better and more efficient use of robotics. In effect, they had "automated" a lot more of the sub-assembly "assembly line" aspects of the job and improved on the versatility and numbers of construction robots. (This is also part of the reason they were able/willing to reduce damage control personnel and rely on remotes to handle combat damage in their newer classes.)

One of the big drawbacks of this is that it consolidates failure points in the system. Another is that it's expensive in terms of the flexibility of the entire system's infrastructure. You have a smaller number of highly efficient nodes producing critical sub-assemblies at a very high rate of speed, so you get high-volume output but the entire building process is more vulnerable because of what happens if you lose one or more of those nodes. In addition, each of the nodes is tied into at least one (and often more than one) of your printers which then cannot be retasked or used for anything else without breaking down the entire "assembly line" to which it is assigned. One reason the service facilities at Trevor's Star could produce only a low volume (comparatively speaking) of Apollo MDMs post Oyster Bay was that they were configured for maximum flexibility, given the nature of the repairs and maintenance called for by their designed roll, rather than maximum efficiency in terms of high-volume, high-speed output of only one or a very few items.

Post League Eridani
Added quote and pointer to the text. Note that Trevor's Star did produce Apollo missiles; but the missile production lines were moved to Beowulf, because they were higher volume.
Last edited by tlb on Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by n7axw   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:04 pm

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tlb wrote:
munroburton wrote:The MA also did not attack Trevor's Star, which had some seed maintenance facilities capable of being expanded and converted into producing at least thousands of Apollo control birds as well as the pods required to repackage their currently existing stockpiles of MK23s.

It was my understanding that Beowulf was producing all those missiles (including the control birds), because what maintenance facilities that Manticore had remaining were going to be strained just helping rebuild the replacement orbital structures.


You are right. They were. However, iirc, Beowulf's efforts were just starting to gather steam when Filereta crossed the Hyper limit at the MBS.

Don

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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by n7axw   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:54 pm

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Getting back to the subject at hand, at the end of the book the Alliance doesn't realize that Darius was still there to be attacked. They thought that taking out Dalton had completed the job. I was a bit disappointed at that, but oh well. Zilwicki and company will get it figured out and that is probably going to be how the next book starts.

I'm wondering, though, if they shouldn't have been able to figure it out. First we know that those small freighters we're transferring cargo from point a to point b. Galton was one of those points. Where was the other?

Secondly, we know that GF encounters some Malign weapons, but no LDs. So where are they?

I am also wondering which worm hole the Malign is using to communicate between Darius and Dalton. Is it the one at Mannerheim or something that I may have missed...

Don

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Re: Attacking Darius:
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:57 pm

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cthia wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:So OB did definitely destroy a lot of the stocked supplies that were aboard the stations. But it didn't touch anything stored elsewhere, which means the GA definitely had more stock than just what was in the magazines.

I don't know guys, didn't it come out of text that the only missiles available were those in magazines? I took that at face value. Partly because it was in the text, iinm, partly because I think it was the author's intent to dial up the drama, and partly because the MA designed OB to severely handicap the RMN. I don't think they would have made essentially the same mistake the Japanese made of leaving the oil fields intact at Pearl. They seemed to have pretty good Intel.


No one is doubting that Manticore was between a rock and a hard place between the Yawata Strike and Pritchart showing up on Haven One in Trevor's Star. What I am saying is that the situation was not as dire as you painted.

There was no way the RMN and GSN could have prosecuted a war against both Haven and the Solarian League. The mitigating factor is that the Andermani were around, but IIRC didn't RFC say that the Andermani weren't producing Mk23 E and F yet? The number of missiles used to take out RHN ships was much, much higher than for the SLN. And at this time, the RHN would be at about 900 SD(P) strength.

The issue though wasn't missiles, but platforms. The war against the SL was done almost entirely without Apollos, except for the battles of Beowulf and Sol, when production had resumed. However, the war required the GA and especially the RMN to send ships far and wide, which they couldn't have if the RHN was still hanging like a Sword of Damocles over their heads.

But if Haven had simply sat out, without offering an alliance, then it would have been no more difficult than it truly was. We haven't heard of any other engagements beside RMN vs SLN, but that doesn't mean they didn't happen. Either way, as I've just said, the entire war was prosecuted with pre-Apollo Mk23 missiles and ships only up to BC and CLAC size. At no point did the RMN or their allies have to deploy SD(P)s. Even when Tenth Fleet liberated the Madras Sector without losing a single ship, Gold Peak's SD(P)s didn't fire a single shot. Tourville arriving with the reactivated RHN Second Fleet for the conquest of Mesa was more for show of support than any need (the MSN didn't have anything bigger than a cruiser).

So if Filareta had arrived unexpectedly and the RMN defences at the MBS had been forced to fire their defences, the stockpile would indeed be drained. That would make the MBS weaker, but that's relative. I doubt that it would have allowed the RHN to send their remaining 500 SD(P)s and still win. Much less Raging Justice II with SLN obsolete SDs.

I recall asking, or intending to ask, whether the forts would also have internal magazines. It seems they would since they are tactically mobile.


Of course. And they have shoals of pre-deployed pods available too. That doesn't mean those missiles could be carried inside an SD(P), though, especially not if they are 4-stage MDMs. I don't think the Junction needed those, though, so they'd more likely have Mk23. And probably not the Apollo ones, because the termini wouldn't be priority for Apollo birds.

But they'd still have a deep cache of regular Mk23 and of Mk16 DDMs.
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