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Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?

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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:59 pm

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cthia wrote:Yes, I do realize that. RFC has said as much on at least several occasions. Also, TEiF touched on it a bit during the heart-to-heart O'Hanrahan had with her handler. Of course, they kicked the can downhill to Galton, but still.

At any rate, Detweiler's original vision would be the vision that they would claim. Why would they want the enemy to know all of their secrets. And, the MA has to keep up the ruse for people like O'Hanrahan, and also for the people at Galton. If Galton is ever conquered. So, claiming Detweiler's original vision would not only be easier for the Galaxy to swallow - thus in their own best interest - but it gets their foot in the door for the rest of the plan later. Under the radar. Smoke and mirrors if you will.


Granted. They couldn't come out and say that they want control over the Detweiler Vision.

But the point is that the demand is toothless: it's already happened. The best thing they could do is actually join it and push it. That's what O'Harahan expects her Alignment should do. (She should be asking why they aren't doing that)

So that boils down to offering to return the Queen for a promise to unilaterally cease hostilities. It's cheap enough that the Manticore Government might accept it. I doubt the rest of the GA would, not that it would be enforceable anyway.

This is why we're saying the scenario is a MAlign's Negotiating Team B: they have such a valuable hostage and they squander the opportunity for something unenforceable, that basically buys them nothing in favour, but does buy them further ill-will. Plus, their actual desires could be accomplished from hiding with much lesser risk and side-effect.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by tlb   » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:50 pm

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tlb wrote:I hope that you realize the Mesan Alignment that we have known since about The Shadow of Saganami (whom we have dubbed the Malign) does not believe in Detweiler's original vision; what they call the Detweiler Plan is something else entirely.

The Benign Mesan Alignment that we first encountered in UH is already out in the open; they are the ones that believe in Detweiler's original vision. So demand #2 is not something which would interest the people at Darius.

cthia wrote:Yes, I do realize that. RFC has said as much on at least several occasions. Also, TEiF touched on it a bit during the heart-to-heart O'Hanrahan had with her handler. Of course, they kicked the can downhill to Galton, but still.

At any rate, Detweiler's original vision would be the vision that they would claim. Why would they want the enemy to know all of their secrets. And, the MA has to keep up the ruse for people like O'Hanrahan, and also for the people at Galton. If Galton is ever conquered. So, claiming Detweiler's original vision would not only be easier for the Galaxy to swallow - thus in their own best interest - but it gets their foot in the door for the rest of the plan later. Under the radar. Smoke and mirrors if you will.

The whole reason the Benign Alignment was the opposition party was that only they had remained faithful; which TEiF makes clear. But you are correct that the lies to O'Hanrahan were that they were faithful, unlike those bad people at Galton.

Galton went down the way it did to create the idea that they were the final outpost and there are no additional Malign concentrations. I expect information found there will expose additional small pockets on the various planets, so everyone can feel confident that the ideology is eradicated. I expect documentation on the full implications of the Detweiler Plan will be found, so everyone will know how bad they were.

But Galton's sacrifice demands that nothing overt be done to make people believe that there is more to be found somewhere. So there cannot be a kidnapping and O'Hanrahan must be convinced that there are good reasons for Darius to remain hidden, even though the GA is already making peace with the Benign Alignment and support exists for loosening the Beowulf Code.

The ruse with Galton was that there is no Darius, which is not what they told O'Hanrahan; for her they claimed to be in opposition to Galton and hiding from them. I do not think they can come into the open, because if they lie and say they are Benign, then there is no good reason to hide Darius now that Galton is conquered. However there are things at Darius that cannot be exposed, because they would expose the lies.

So the question remains: are they planning to continue to strive for world domination? If so, it is better to remain hidden and hope that Galton is accepted as the source of all evil.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:30 pm

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tlb wrote:So the question remains: are they planning to continue to strive for world domination? If so, it is better to remain hidden and hope that Galton is accepted as the source of all evil.


I think we can safely say they are, otherwise the series would have a very unsatisfactory ending...
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:38 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Yes, I do realize that. RFC has said as much on at least several occasions. Also, TEiF touched on it a bit during the heart-to-heart O'Hanrahan had with her handler. Of course, they kicked the can downhill to Galton, but still.

At any rate, Detweiler's original vision would be the vision that they would claim. Why would they want the enemy to know all of their secrets. And, the MA has to keep up the ruse for people like O'Hanrahan, and also for the people at Galton. If Galton is ever conquered. So, claiming Detweiler's original vision would not only be easier for the Galaxy to swallow - thus in their own best interest - but it gets their foot in the door for the rest of the plan later. Under the radar. Smoke and mirrors if you will.


Granted. They couldn't come out and say that they want control over the Detweiler Vision.

But the point is that the demand is toothless: it's already happened. The best thing they could do is actually join it and push it. That's what O'Harahan expects her Alignment should do. (She should be asking why they aren't doing that)

So that boils down to offering to return the Queen for a promise to unilaterally cease hostilities. It's cheap enough that the Manticore Government might accept it. I doubt the rest of the GA would, not that it would be enforceable anyway.

This is why we're saying the scenario is a MAlign's Negotiating Team B: they have such a valuable hostage and they squander the opportunity for something unenforceable, that basically buys them nothing in favour, but does buy them further ill-will. Plus, their actual desires could be accomplished from hiding with much lesser risk and side-effect.

Joining it and pushing it is what Galton was all about.

O'Hanrahan did ask why, in her musings to herself. But then she answered her own questions when she said, realized rather, that she wasn't in the 'need to know' food chain.

Again, kidnapping the Queen could be a mission saved for a specific set of conditions, like if the MA was alerted that the GA was gearing up to attack.

Scenario: There are a set of twins before your eyes. One malignant and evil. One benign. Both are saying that they are the good guys. But the bad guys set the good guys up to look bad. Who else would sacrifice their own people by destroying their own space stations except the bad guys.

BTW, wasn't there a mini Houdini carried out in the Galton System to spirit the MA agents away? IINM, I think the final cataclysmic explosion of one of the space stations was to hide the escape of a ship.

And again, for reasons of security, Darius has a right to stay hidden.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:55 pm

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cthia wrote:How can I be so sure? Look at their demands! They would get just about everything that has been at the top of their list since their founding. And they would get peace. No more looking over their shoulders. And they would get to assume their rightful place in the Galaxy. It is a no-brainer they would deal in good faith. They know that it may be only a matter of time before they are found. As far as honoring the frontend of the bargan (releasing the Queen unharmed) they can be no more expected to renege on that part of the deal than Saint-Just would have been to renege on a temporary cease-fire. It is in their best interest. A detente would be a windfall for the MA at this point, especially now that their original plans are off the rails. Besides, do you really believe a nation would go through so much trouble to kidnap a Queen to force a negotiation if their demands aren't something they truly want?


They would honor the front end--but why in the world would they be trusted to honor the peace part of it? They would just go back into the shadows trying to play puppetmaster.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by tlb   » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:41 am

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cthia wrote:BTW, wasn't there a mini Houdini carried out in the Galton System to spirit the MA agents away? IINM, I think the final cataclysmic explosion of one of the space stations was to hide the escape of a ship.

And again, for reasons of security, Darius has a right to stay hidden.

I do not believe this is true, instead I expect that Alamo required a total sacrifice on the part of the few leaders that were aware of Darius (they absolutely could not allow themselves to be caught). Consider that there were no spider-drive ships, so no undetectable craft, and the Grand Alliance had flooded the area with recon drones, so impossible to hide a regular ship. Although one ship trying to escape might not arouse suspicion (other than about what the occupants might know), enough for a Houdini would raise the idea that there was someplace specific to go (such as Darius). That is antithetical to the purpose of Alamo.

Darius has a NEED for security, but not a RIGHT to it. This would come into play if people from Darius tried to come into the open by claiming to be part of the Benign Alliance.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:56 pm

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Loren Pechtel wrote:
cthia wrote:How can I be so sure? Look at their demands! They would get just about everything that has been at the top of their list since their founding. And they would get peace. No more looking over their shoulders. And they would get to assume their rightful place in the Galaxy. It is a no-brainer they would deal in good faith. They know that it may be only a matter of time before they are found. As far as honoring the frontend of the bargan (releasing the Queen unharmed) they can be no more expected to renege on that part of the deal than Saint-Just would have been to renege on a temporary cease-fire. It is in their best interest. A detente would be a windfall for the MA at this point, especially now that their original plans are off the rails. Besides, do you really believe a nation would go through so much trouble to kidnap a Queen to force a negotiation if their demands aren't something they truly want?


They would honor the front end--but why in the world would they be trusted to honor the peace part of it? They would just go back into the shadows trying to play puppetmaster.

Because your Queen is in Check!

You have no choice but to trust them, unless you are as cold as everyone else who wishes to solve the problem by tossing Beth's ass under the bus. And Justin. And Monroe...

No, nobody will actually think that the MA can be trusted. There are those who are still against the alliance with Haven -- partly, I believe -- because of trust. But, just like with the question of whether to accept the offer made by Eloise, your nuts are in a vise between a rock and a hard place. There is no choice.

But again, whether you can trust the MA in the long run is secondary and counter-productive to getting the Queen back. That is the more pressing issue on the board right now.

And! I do understand everyone's reluctance in doing what you must to get the Queen back, even short of surrender. Oftentimes on the chessboard, a weaker player will give up most of his firepower, and position, trying to save his Queen. You must learn to play without her.

But, considering this particular Queen. Is it a good idea considering the amount of time she ruled her kingdom, and the wheeling and dealing she did with the factions of the government? And her importance to the entire Galaxy at large? Are we absolutely sure the successive ruler and associated government won't end up being worse than High Ridge? For a very long time? A totally new government could result in ending the Grand Alliance by alienating Haven and leading to war. It could alienate Grayson. It could alienate the Andermani.

War is always just one misunderstanding away. Politics is more dangerourous than war.

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by cthia   » Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:39 pm

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cthia wrote:But, considering this particular Queen. Is it a good idea considering the amount of time she ruled her kingdom, and the wheeling and dealing she did with the factions of the government?

On the chessboard this would be equal to the exacting amount of time spent developing one's pieces.

With the very dark and ominous malignant clouds threatening horrific thunderstorms on a theatre of war near you, you might just find out that a 'Soul of Steel' is your most valuable resource.

The Treecats named her that. What would they name a new ruler?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by Brigade XO   » Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:55 am

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Galton is a larger version of Mesa as a scapegoat. All the sins of the Alignment are being assigned there and there is no version of Houdini for Galton. There can't be given the Alamo as the only endgame. The people who know anything about another location for the Alignment-even if they don't now even the name Darius- are all going to die. It's a suicide pact/duty of true believers.

It's the Masada siege where all the people who might know something and would have been captured are killed and then the their killers kill themselves. To prevent them going into captivity in any shape or form with a religious imperative driving it.

There are survivors in the Galton system but mostly its people on the planet or in various industrial platforms or habitats. But they don't know anything beyond what they have been told all their livers and probably little more than enough to do their jobs and keep their mouths shut. The brief description of the planetary population sounds like genetic slaves except for a high security island which, while probably the home of the managers of the planet, doesn't have any knowledge of what is actually going on and charged with getting food and resources up to the extra planetary operations.
There is no Benign version of the Alignment on Galton. Actually, we don't know what there is except it sounds like the Stalin Approved Soviet Russia but nobody has any concept of something outside the system and are going to be useless and only a sinkhole of people and effort for the GA because the GA (most of it) is going to feel a moral imperative to help these people. We have been treated to a description of the Non-Star Line population of Darius as slaves who don't know they are slaves but are working for the defence of their home (and it's ideals- whatever they have been fed- against an implacable foe that wants to destroy them.

So, another question:
If Galton was a massively industrialized and military government system that you might want to compare to the capacity of South Korea but the mindset of the leadership of North Korea.....where the hell has all that production gone? Sure, there are stupendous sized forts and very large fleet of SDs and we guess other hyper capable ships and shipyards and manufacturing.......what were they producing beyond the infrastructure and where then hell has it all been going? They are NOT making "consumer" goods in the honorers sence of the term. They are not exporting equipment......because it would show up and there would be records and Harrington was not blasting industrial platforms out of existence.
All that capasity, no customers. How very odd. Particularly since about the only place that "product" in the form of the most advanced (a the time) Cataphracts showed up is for the attack on Torch. I'm not sure what anybody thinks or feels yet about the Cataphract shipment to Filerta but the would appear to be a massive amount of "stuff" that was made but has vanished from Galton.
And nobody seems to have paid for it. That's another very odd thing. What motivation? What motive? Mesa exported genetic slaves and varioius medical things plus was at least a regional nodal headquarters for Transtellars and so cargo hub....but what reason-and for what customers- did this arsenal system exist. Not a good way to plant a false end of a trail.
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Re: Pawn - Q7 ... Checkmate?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:03 pm

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cthia wrote:Because your Queen is in Check!


Uh... you do realise there is no such chess move, right? In fact, it's very topical: the Queen can be sacrificed, if it wins you the game. It's the King that can't be and can be in Check. In this case, the King wouldn't be a person, but likely the MBS as a whole: if the MAN puts the MBS in Check, then the Manticore Government must do anything it needs to save itself.

You have no choice but to trust them, unless you are as cold as everyone else who wishes to solve the problem by tossing Beth's ass under the bus. And Justin. And Monroe...


Of course you have a choice! You can choose to not trust them to keep their word and therefore do everything in your power to come up with contingencies in case they fail to live up to their word. In fact, that's what you should do. Because they won't live up to their word.

BTW, there's no scenario in which the Queen is kidnapped and Monroe is not already dead.

If coldly tossing the queen under the bus is one extreme, then emotionally giving in to anything because she is who she is is the other. There's a lot of grey area in the middle and this is what we're arguing.

No, nobody will actually think that the MA can be trusted. There are those who are still against the alliance with Haven -- partly, I believe -- because of trust. But, just like with the question of whether to accept the offer made by Eloise, your nuts are in a vise between a rock and a hard place. There is no choice.

But again, whether you can trust the MA in the long run is secondary and counter-productive to getting the Queen back. That is the more pressing issue on the board right now.


No, it's not secondary, because it depends on what they're asking for you to do in order to get the Queen back. If their demands are what you've said, toothless and naïve as they are, then sure, agree to them because the short- and long-term effects of having agreed to them are minimal.

I seriously, seriously doubt anyone would make those demands. They'd ask for more, which would make the Government have to decide whether those short- and long-term effects are worse than losing the Queen.

And! I do understand everyone's reluctance in doing what you must to get the Queen back, even short of surrender. Oftentimes on the chessboard, a weaker player will give up most of his firepower, and position, trying to save his Queen. You must learn to play without her.


And sometimes they'll offer up the queen to gain an advantage that will lead to victory. It's mighty risky, but it's possible.

But, considering this particular Queen. Is it a good idea considering the amount of time she ruled her kingdom, and the wheeling and dealing she did with the factions of the government? And her importance to the entire Galaxy at large? Are we absolutely sure the successive ruler and associated government won't end up being worse than High Ridge? For a very long time? A totally new government could result in ending the Grand Alliance by alienating Haven and leading to war. It could alienate Grayson. It could alienate the Andermani.

War is always just one misunderstanding away. Politics is more dangerourous than war.


No, we can't be absolutely sure which one would be worse, depending on what the demands are.

Again, kidnapping the Queen could be a mission saved for a specific set of conditions, like if the MA was alerted that the GA was gearing up to attack.


It's already highly unlikely that the Queen could be kidnapped. It's even less likely that she could be kidnapped at will, at a time of the kidnappers' choosing, without depending on factors out of their control. A successful kidnapping likely depends on the Queen putting herself in a risky situation that the Queen's Own regiment has not realised is such. Operation Hassan could only be launched because the Queen was going to visit the Steadholders; if she were to meet only with the Protector, the operation could never happen.

And the chance of such a condition being present while the GA is preparing to assault Darius is effectively indistinguishable from zero. At such a time, the GA is likely going to be at high alert and the Queen would be elbows-deep into the strategic considerations of such a thing.
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